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Blog Digest
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: CAN IT BE ANY MORE OBVIOUS?
Recap: Can it be any more obvious? For many months, which are now turning into years, the marketplace has been perpetually short. Some by design and some by necessity. The market is always short. That had been a winning strategy. With a shift to tighter supply, pressure on the buy-side is coming into play today. […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE MARKET TOPPED RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS
Recap: The market topped right before Christmas and now has given back $43 of the $56 rally in March. What we saw last week was the selling gaining momentum. The short-term focus has to be on the range. Is it the low of 537.00 at the start of the December rally, or is it back […]
USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview
USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview January 12, 2024 First Glance: Corn USDA Yield: 177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov) Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov) Harvested Area: 86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov) 23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov) 23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 […]
Leonard Lumber Report: The futures trade last week looked flat
Recap: On the surface, the futures trade last week looked flat. The net change for the week was up $2. In fact, the last seven sessions have seen closes within a $4 range. A digestion phase after the run-up? Underneath the surface, things are changing. We have shifted the fund shorts over to the industry. Wood […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE VOLKER RALLY
Happy Holidays to all and your families. Recap: The Volker rally. The markets reacted very positively to Powell’s comments on lower rates sooner. The comments were in stark contrast to the previous comments about higher for longer. The lumber market was no different, squeezing out gains for the week. So, while there are positives on […]
AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 1 – 15
Corn has been rage bound for the last two weeks with no catalysts in the market to move it much either direction. The weather in South America has improved slightly in areas that got off to a tough start but doesn’t seem to have made much a difference on the market. It is still a […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “THE SEASON OF CONTENTMENT”
Recap: “The season of contentment.” Most have closed up shop for the rest of the year. There is minimal volume in either the futures or cash. The futures trade is a liquidation of all sides. The outlook is also fuzzy. As the daily traders look for a crack at the mills the long-term traders wonder […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The lumber market today has three defined pillars
Recap: The lumber market today has three defined pillars. The first is supply and demand. The other is rates, and then there is inventory management attitudes. All are currently indicating more of the same for 2024. What could be different is inventory management. This past month we saw a much more robust buy round. There […]
AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9 – DECEMBER 1
Corn has had a rough month as it continues its sideways to lower grind after briefly touching $5.20 in October for the March contract. While there has not been any major market news to direct the market a strong weekly export report this week was welcome to the market that had been bleeding lower. The […]
Leonard Lumber Update: I Will Continue to focus on the technical side of this market
Recap: I will continue to focus on the technical side of this market. There are two takeaways from the weekly chart below. The first read is that when a market goes through an extreme volatility event, there tends to be a corrective phase. You can see just how flat the market has become. In 2021 […]