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Corn took a dive on today’s USDA report with 1.3 million more harvested acres and larger yield than expected coming in at 186.5 bu/ac. With this comes more production leading to larger ending stocks, brutal two-sided hit for the corn bulls. Corn had done a great job of climbing higher since early December, but today’s report gives all the momentum back to the bears with South America’s growing season off to a great start. Corn’s big move lower sent it below all technical support and unless we see a quick turnaround this week what was a support level could turn ...

2026 "The Great Reset?" The Lumber Industry: An industry where being almost perfectly correct loses money. An industry where a strong risk management plan leads you into hot water with the bosses. An industry where a better rate of return comes from the derivative products offered, but is mostly ignored and sometimes vilified. An industry where 80% of planning and execution is calculated for only the next few days, not quarters or years. The lumber industry is not designed as a growth model. There will never be maturing companies. There will never be "cash cows." At every turn, you must ...

Recap: Bear down, baby! I'll leave it at that. The futures market last week looked a lot like the Packers on Saturday, good early and then falling apart. What remains is a market that lacks follow-through in either direction. I think the reason is the abundance of data coming our way. A firm conviction can't develop with this type of trade. Real production cuts are going on, but prices aren't showing any signs of anxiety. There are starts and stops, but again, no real conviction. What we are seeing is the industry embracing the futures market in a big way ...

Recap: It's a Christmas rally. January futures rose for every session last week, totaling a $20 gain. The cash market saw the deals dry up, and actual tightness forming. It has been heading in that direction for about two weeks, but it only caught the buy late last week. Two opposing forces dominate today's market. First is the large premium futures hold over the cash market, keeping most buyers on the sidelines. The second is the expectation that there will be less wood available on January 1st than there is today. Maybe that won't turn out to be true, but ...

Corn has been trading sideways since the end of October and nothing from today’s USDA Report gives it reason to change course. The main news for corn has been the lack of news. Corn did dip 20 cents in late November but bounced back to the middle of the range it has been in around $4.45. In today’s USDA report they kept US production the same while raising the export forecast by 125 million bushels, lowering US ending stocks to 2.029 billion bushels. The global stocks number was also revised lower with production cuts to other countries, including Ukraine. While ...