LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices
Summary: Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices—that’s a recipe for a dull trade with thin margins. Seasonally, May into early June is dead money. “Sell in May and go away” exists for a reason. But this year, the takeaway is just firm enough to keep everyone from stepping away entirely. Add in historically lower field inventories (possibly by design), and the market doesn’t have the cushion to relax. Right now, the industry is playing prevent defense—always on the field, focused on not losing. That’s a tough way to operate in a commodity business, especially when costs are sticky and conviction ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Housing data continues to grind along
Weekly Recap: Key Takeaways: On Friday, May futures expired a buck over July. That means that there is no downside gap to go after. Also, the spread traded +4. We haven't seen that since Sept of 2023. A case is building for less bad... Housing data continues to grind along—not hot, not falling apart. 2026 is pacing slightly ahead of last year, but the bigger story remains margin compression. Costs are sticky, financing isn’t getting easier, and the entire chain is operating lean. Demand is there, but conviction is thin. This isn’t a demand problem—it’s a willingness problem. Nobody is ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better
Weekly Recap: Macro / Demand Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better, with 2026 new home numbers running modestly ahead of 2025. Currently we do not a recessionary setup—but a margin problem. Inflation-driven costs keep squeezing profitability across the chain, leaving builders and dealers operating day-to-day with little appetite for risk. Demand exists, but conviction doesn’t. The market is reverting to its mean where there are no more easy buys, replacement cost are higher, and resistance to paying up is building. Ironically, that reluctance could be what sets up higher prices later—higher prices, not demand destruction, may become the real pain point ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 17 – MAY 8
Corn has been a tale of two forces over the past three weeks. Coming off the euphoria of Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening announcement on April 17th, markets initially attempted to stabilize, but that news seemed short-lived as volatility in the middle east kept markets volatile. With the war premium in and out of the market, it has been trying to trade both geopolitical news and fundamentals, and those fundamentals remain heavy. U.S. ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, kept a ceiling on any sustained rally, and fast planting progress added some pressure. The USDA's ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Lumber futures are choppy and directionless
Recap: Lumber futures are choppy and directionless, basically mirroring a housing market stuck in neutral. From the builders to distribution, the game plan is to contain losses. Trade has been dominated by the roll, not fresh conviction buying or selling. Futures made new contract lows and bounced—a pattern we’ve seen repeatedly for nearly two years, with rallies failing quickly and momentum nowhere to be found. Just ask the longs who make pennies and give back dollars. The macro housing backdrop is decisively neutral. Existing‑home sales are weak, first‑time buyers are sidelined, inventory is improving only marginally, and mortgage rates remain a headwind—not ...
