Blog

Corn had a rough week along with the overall commodity selloff the past few days. While the weather forecast has become cooler it is still going to be hot, and a lack of rain remains across much of the corn belt for the next week with higher chances in the 2-week forecast.  Do not be mistaken – we are in a “weather market” where positions will change along with the forecasts. Outside of weather, it has been the funds who have helped propel the move higher over the past year – naturally, when funds liquidate their large long position, you ...

Corn had a good week with solid gains as there has still been no conclusive progress on an open trade corridor for Ukraine to export grain. The US weather outlook for late June remains hot and dry for many areas. While this is not too worrisome yet, if that pattern continues for the summer it could lead to the long-term weather problems the world supply does not need. The cash market remains hot with positive basis for corn pushing corn up over $8 in many areas in the corn belt. The USDA Report Friday did not include many surprises but ...

Corn had another tough week with a couple big down days before a quiet day on Thursday. The big news this week was the rumors of talks between Russia and Turkey to discuss a safe trade passage for Ukraine to export grain. While this would be a positive for the world supply, rumors are rumors until something comes to fruition and Russia supposedly would only let that happen if they were to get economic sanctions lifted. Along with this news, corn planting was 86% complete at the start of the week following the long weekend after a few weeks of ...

Corn has traded lower over the past couple of weeks as planting progress has sped up following a slow start to the planting season. While we knew the corn would get planted, the early delay was worrisome and continues to have the potential to lead to harvest yield loss. Despite the gains in many states, ND and MN are still wet and cool with no warmer weather in the forecast to help pull these areas into any form of normal pattern. With the country wide and regional delays to planting, the latest USDA yield estimate of 177 bpa seems realistic ...

The May USDA report was mixed but the most bullish news out of it was lowering expected yield to 177 bu/acre from 181. This adjustment trumped the other numbers as US and world stocks were higher than expected. The USDA appears to think demand rationing is in the future but is also aware the late panted US crop will not achieve record yield.  The USDA did not change their estimates for Brazil’s safrinha crop, their estimates remain a few hundred million bushels over private estimates. Corn planting was seen as being 22% complete to start the week with more progress ...