LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Fifty dollars in five days. Lumber futures gave it all back.
Fifty dollars in five days. Lumber futures gave it all back. While there was weakness in the cash market, it was nowhere near that severe. There were many combinations of players involved, but at the end of the day it was the algo-driven push that unraveled the move. That forced the longs out and brought the industry in. The Commitment of Traders report adds another layer of confusion, as it shows funds getting longer. The issue is that the data only runs through Tuesday, so it does not yet provide a complete picture of the market's current makeup. To keep ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures rallied nearly $30 last week
Futures rallied nearly $30 last week and more than $60 over the last two weeks. That is a substantial move. The rally actually began back in November 2025 and is now up roughly $170 from those lows. The data is not showing a major increase in demand. We have been seeing production slow over time, but is that enough to justify a $60 move in two weeks and a $170 advance overall? The funds may think so. Open interest bottomed near 6,200 and now sits above 8,000 after only a few sessions. The Commitment of Traders report shows an increase ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 10 – 24
Corn caught a boost from the July 10th WASDE report, which cut 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, 200 million lower than June, on stronger-than-expected old-crop demand that trimmed 2025/26 carryout by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion. Even with production pegged at a record 16.0 billion bushels, the tighter carryout was enough to spark buying, and December corn settled the WASDE session at $4.60. The rally extended over the following two weeks as a hot, dry pattern settled over the Corn Belt right through pollination, the most critical stretch for yield determination, with December corn touching $4.92 on ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The focus on trade last week was the final liquidation in July
The focus on trade last week was the final liquidation in July, which initially pushed July prices sharply lower and dragged September down with it. By Friday, September had clawed its way back to nearly even on the week. We did hear reports of numerous cracks in some items in the cash market. As of Thursday, we viewed the September break as primarily July-related. By Friday, that view became less certain, and now there is growing concern that a cash adjustment period may be developing. The market should give us that answer early this week. Heads up: Over roughly the last ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: September finished the week up $11
This Week: The September finished the week up $11. It felt a whole lot better than only 11 bucks. This is a supply-driven market rally, and with no layups, the industry can’t trade. It is forcing them to pay up each time. The mills are going along for the ride. If this type of market stays in place—and there is no reason it doesn’t—all will be forced to relish making 3% on a car..... More of the same. The spread traded into a plus 1.10 before reversing and resuming the expiration selloff. With futures trading in a slight uptrend, the ...
