RCM Ag Services Blog

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 24-30

Corn is down on the week as funds took profit on their historically long positions as they have liquidated over 200 million bushels worth, still holding a large long position. The underlying fundamentals this week remained strong despite the big loses. Exports were strong again this week as China continues to buy & with bigger purchases from Mexico as farmers worry their crop may not be as large as expected. The forecast for Argentina has turned drier giving South America a concerning supply issue. As the La Nina weather pattern continues to strengthen, continued dryness looks to be in the ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 10 – 16

Corn has continued its momentum up following Friday’s USDA report despite a hit to prices to start the week. Corn closed above the $4.00 mark for the first time since January on the Dec’ 20 contract (see chart below). This year has been different for many reasons but having the highest prices of the year come during harvest definitely adds to it. The “harvest lows” look to have been in August with the run up of 80 cents/bu, giving farmers hope after depressed prices all spring and summer. The USDA report from Friday came in with a yield estimate of ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 3 – 9

Corn followed beans higher this week as exports continued and Brazil’s weather is still questionable as their season starts. Corn harvest in the US is 26% complete as favorable weather looks to allow for harvest to continue across the country. As Chinese buying continued following holiday, markets are keeping an eye on their purchases as the Chinese government changed laws in what can be fed to hog herds as they continue to recover from ASF. By not allowing for swill (food waste and garbage) to be fed to hogs anymore the demand for corn and meal for feed looks to ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 26 – OCTOBER 2

Corn saw a big boost as a result of the surprises in the USDA stocks report this week. Corn came in 255 million bushels below estimates at 1.995 MBU, which comes back to what everyone thought that the USDA overestimated the 2019 crop. This adjustment lowers the 2019 yield by about 3 BPA, which sounds much more accurate from what we heard from talking to farmers. Ultimately, this means world stocks are tightening as Chinese demand of US grains has picked up with Phase 1 trucking on. Post-report funds continued to get long, which helped the drive up as well ...
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Ag Market Update: September 19 – 25

Corn was hit hard on the week as grains pulled back from their great run over the last month. As equity markets fell this week with a rise in Covid-19 in European countries, grains followed. Pullbacks this year are normal as harvest gets going. Harvest should get off to a fast start as weather in most areas looks good with no widespread rain, although it does not appear to be enough to delay harvest too much - even as cooler temperatures roll in. The lack of export news on Thursday did not help as this week's drawback continued, and fell ...
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Ag Market Update: September 12 – 18

Corn gained on the week following soybeans lead. Corn exports, like soybeans, have been strong with China being a large buyer recently. As some analysts have pointed out, this pace of Chinese purchases may be a signal that their supplies are much lower than they have reported. As most numbers that come out of China, one should be skeptical, so this may be showing us where they actually stand. With weather looking good heading into harvest, the next few weeks should allow for steady progress. As you can see from the chart below, prices are at the highest they have ...
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Ag Market Update: September 5 – 11

Corn gains on the week have been driven from continued strong export numbers as well as trade expectations of a 178 yield estimate heading into the USDA report on Friday. The report came out with a 178.5 bu/acre estimate which is pretty in line with what the trade was expecting. The drop from the 181.8 bu/acre yield estimate from the previous USDA report comes from a combination of the storm damage in Iowa as well as the extended stretch of dryness across many states to end last month. This impressive run up by corn from the lows seen in early ...
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AG Market Update: August 29 – September 4

Corn saw slight loses on the week after trading in the low $3.60s despite strong export numbers and falling crop conditions. The crop conditions at this point usually fall as corn starts to get ready for harvest and lose its color as ratings come from looking at the fields rather than any testing. As China has continued to be a large buyer it looks like the market has factored in their purchases and will expect similar levels or purchases moving forward. The forecasts have some rain in much needed areas as we get closer to harvest to help hold on ...
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AG MARKETS UPDATE: AUGUST 22 – 28

Corn saw solid gains on the week as large exports and continued weather problems were the market movers. The western corn belt looks to continue its dry run in the coming week with no widespread rain expected in areas that have been suffering from drought. This will put more strain on the crop as we head into harvest. The crop, especially in Iowa on top of the storm damage, has been fighting drought conditions most of the summer in the western corn belt so an already strained crop doesn’t look like it will get much help coming down the stretch ...
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Ag Markets Update: August 15 – 21

Corn stayed level on the week after last week’s rally from the storm damage. Pro Farmer Tour is on the road this week looking at several areas across the midwest. The markets will be keeping an eye on them as they try and assess the damage of the storm and how many bushels were lost as well as the potential yields in areas not affected by the storm. So far the PFT has shown better than expected yield potential for Ohio, Indiana, Nebraska and the Dakotas. The parts of Iowa and Illinois to miss the storm look strong as well ...
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