Blog

Ag Market Update: May 7-14

Corn finally had a day with a major pullback as it tested the new expanded limits on Thursday. This move comes after a slightly bearish crop report along with a lackluster trade following it. After the impressive run to this point it makes sense why speculators would take profits and hedgers would begin to manage their risk for this year as we begin to get better picture from the planting starts data. For the bulls, much of Brazil’s safrinha crop will go another 10-14 days without rain continuing to stress the crop. This week the US’ corn crop was seen ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 1-7

Corn continued it's hot run this month with a great week in both old crop and new crop prices. As Brazil’s safrinha crop keeps facing a dry outlook, pressure is mounting on the US to produce a great crop to fulfill world demand. The US forecast is turning wetter for many major growing areas but remains cool for this time of year. The cool weather is not ideal for early growth, but the rain will be welcome in areas facing drought conditions (see map at bottom). There is a rumor of more Chinese interest in new crop which helped propel ...
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AG Market Update: April 24-30

Volatility was the name of the game this week as many days saw wide trading ranges on both sides of unchanged. Looking at the chart below you can just how wide ranges the last few days have been.  Despite the volatlity, the May contract settled squarely within the range as of Thursday.  This volatility came about as we’ve faced a short squeeze on the front month May contract.  Coming into the week, there were nearly 200,000 open contracts, as of this morning there are only 12,500 – presumably many were on the short side and needed to cover. Regardless of ...
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Ag Markets Update: April 17 – 23

Off to the races? Corn was limit up Thursday as prices for May corn topped $6.50 for the first time since 2013 continuing its impressive weekly run. The May option expiration occurring Friday has traders scrambling to cover short call option positions by buying futures and positioning themselves for next week’s first notice day. As we have been seeing in the cash market for a while with improving basis, it seems the futures market is catching up and realizing the market needs corn and it needs it now. Any farmers with old crop remaining has the cards in their hands ...
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Lumber: A Demand Driven Rally….On Steroids

If you haven’t been watching one of the more esoteric futures market lately – Lumber – you’ve been missing a rather  parabolic up market – up nearly 9% last week, 27% for the month,  78% for the year, and 280% over the past 12 months. Move aside dogecoin! So how does a $300 commodity that regularly deals with  events such as wildfires and sharply higher housing starts now come to be trading at almost $1300? To answer that question, we checked in with our lumber expert Brian Leonard to get the inside scoop: Unlike most other commodities, lumber is used ...
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Ag Markets Updates: April 10-16

Corn had a good week as we reach new contract highs in May for old crop. As you can see in the 1 year chart below after trading in the $5.30-$5.60 range for a couple months corn has seen a strong response since the Projected Plantings report came out. The export numbers this week were not great, yet corn was still able to post a positive day following the report as the number was still 10 million bushels above the weekly total needed to meet USDA estimates. Analysts are expecting Brazil’s safrinha crop to potentially lose 5 million metric tonnes ...
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AG MARKET UPDATES: APRIL 3 – 9

The grains have started to separate themselves from each other as they begin to have their own trades tied to the US growing season coming into view. After last week’s plantings intention report, corn had a couple down days but has climbed back to the post report level heading into Friday’s USDA April report. Corn’s exports this week were better than expected along with news that China may buy up to 80 million bushels into late summer (bullish news for old crop corn). Basis is showing us that supplies are tightening despite the lagging data from the USDA stocks report.  ...
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Mastering the Grain Markets with the Grain Market Master Elaine Kub

If you’ve taken an ag econ class, been in the industry on the producer or investor side, or just have a general interest in the ag space, there’s a good chance that you’ve come across Mastering the Grain Markets by Elaine Kub. It’s the perfect intro to understanding ways that could help you make money trading grain, and we’re lucky to be joined by the author herself to talk about her books, designer contracts, crop opportunities, market outlook, what the next “game changers” in the ag business are going to be and more. Listen to the entire episode on your ...
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March 2021 Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions Report: The Hedged Edge

The USDA came out with a bullish report???!!!! It’s fair to say that many in the industry (us included) were left speechless. We know that 2020 was a crazy ride for commodities, but it looks like we may be in for an even WILDER ride on the opposite end for 2021. To discuss this bullish report, we’re joined by our two favorite RCM Ag Services Cotton and Grain experts, Jody Lawrence and Ron Lawson, to discuss how this recent report is bound to affect the markets/insurance premiums/loan opportunities and much more in the coming months. Find the full episode links ...
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Ag Market Updates: March 27 – April 1

Watch our corn and grain experts talk through this new report in our podcast The Hedged Edge. Or you can continue on below and read our analysis on the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. The USDA coming out with a bullish report? 2021 is due to have some crazy things happen after how 2020 went. The Prospective Plantings Report that came out this week pegged the US corn crop at 91.144 million acres when the average trade estimate was 93.208 million acres. The USDA lowered their numbers from the USDA Ag Forum earlier in the year that projected 92 million ...
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