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Recap: Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week. Many are pointing to the Montreal gathering as the culprit, but it’s questionable whether any meaningful movement would have materialized regardless. May finished the week up $6, though total volume remained light throughout. The only notable development came from the Commitment of Traders report, which showed another sizable jump in producer longs alongside a further increase in fund shorts. Overall, the best way to describe last week’s trade is simply uneventful. The futures market managed to hold above a new low on this move, suggesting there is still underlying demand ...

Corn spent the start of April grinding lower, posting a fourth consecutive weekly loss by April 10th as the April WASDE reinforced a burdensome supply narrative. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks essentially unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, and global stocks came in above trade expectations at 294.81 million metric tons. A two week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, announced April 7th, removed much of the war premium that had propped up prices since March, as easing Strait of Hormuz concerns pulled crude oil sharply lower and dragged corn along with it. July futures ...

Recap: Futures finished the week down $21. One notable development was in the COT report showing an increase of 924 industry longs. That puts the long hedge position at roughly 1,600 cars. That represents a meaningful amount of protection in place and should help dampen anxiety during periods of volatility. At the same time, short funds added 595 contracts, remaining committed to the lumber futures trade. In a low-volume environment, positioning matters. The industry is actively managing risk by using futures to step away from the daily cash-market grind, while the funds continue to stay with a trade that has ...

Recap: The fatigue factor. A lumber cycle only has so much life. An upcycle runs about 15 sessions before needs are met. A down cycle tends to last longer. The consumption factors are slow-moving, causing a longer lag until the next buy. Last week, we saw futures making what I would call a triple top and then failing. It was a sign of fatigue. The cash market is also struggling to keep up momentum. It is too early to call for a change in cycle direction, but it does give a reason to hedge a little.  We are starting each ...

Corn has remained supported but volatile following the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, which reinforced a tighter-than-expected balance sheet narrative. The USDA came out with 95.338 million acres, near the lower end of trade expectations, confirming earlier concerns that higher input costs, particularly fertilizer due to war in Iran, would limit corn expansion, while stocks data did not show burdensome supplies. This has helped underpin prices despite sluggish export demand and limited Chinese participation, keeping the market more focused on supply risk than demand weakness. Combined with continued strength in energy markets and inflation-driven fund interest, ...