AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 8 – 22
Corn has consolidated in the $4 to $4.20 range since July 8 even with the USDA report. The USDA did not release any major updates to production as they let expected US yield at 181 bu/ac but it did have lower ending stocks for the next 2 years with increased old crop exports and increased feed demand. This bullish news was not enough to put a fire behind corn as the US crop this year remains on record breaking pace with the great weather start to the year. The forecasts to start the week were adjusted for a warmer drier ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: To keep it simple the sharp selloff on Monday rattled some cages and woke up a marketplace
Recap: To keep it simple the sharp selloff on Monday rattled some cages and woke up a marketplace. All of a sudden, the trade looked up and saw low inventories with a cash market very close to $300. The round of cash was enough to bring in short covering in futures. To sum it up we finally are getting a cash buy. The question now is it one of the new 2024 tepid buys or a good old fashion fill in? Early in the year, we expected shutdowns, fires, or rail to hold prices up. Most of those factors are still ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Last week, many “new-news” were created
Recap: Last week, many "new-news" were created. There were new lows in futures, new lows in cash, new highs in industry longs, and the list goes on. Market participants have turned their ire or blame toward Southern Yellow Pine. The data isn't in line with such a bearish market. The data lag has kept us all on a constant watch for the bounce. I'm beginning to wonder if that bounce is a unicorn. As we clean up July next week and traders get back to work, we should expect some corrections. The facts are most have reduced inventories. It has been ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 14 – JULY 8
Corn had the bottom fall out of it after trading between $4.60 and $5 from March to June. The USDA last week pegged the US corn crop at 91.475 million acres, over 1 million acres higher than the trade estimate. The USDA did make a note that those were the reported acres at the time of the survey so there is a good chance not all those acres end up getting planted. The crop ratings are currently better than last year’s at this time that led to a record crop and with no major weather concerns on the horizon and ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The best word to describe last week’s trade was erosion
Recap: The best word to describe last week's trade was erosion: erosion in value, erosion in the housing sector, and finally, erosion in the economy. The industry waits for a truckload of sand to show up as the beach slips into the ocean. We searched for green shoots to pop up all week, only to see lower cash prices. One fact remains: it is the lumber market, and rallies are created out of nothing. Last week's trade indicates the market isn't ready. Let's look at a few factors which could already be in play or are forming. The key factor is the ...
