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Old & New Crop Risk Management Strategies & 2023 Market Outlook

As we start 2023 – the stakes could not be higher for the agriculture sector! The world population is growing rapidly, crossing 8 Billion in November of last year. Due to the historic drought and war, there are lower stocks of the major grain supplies globally. Energy and interest rates have accelerated rapidly vs. this time last year, leading to higher input costs and raising the break-even levels for farmers and end users to unprecedented levels…plus there is still a war going on. To help give us some insight and answers to what lies ahead, we’re lucky to have two ...
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THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market ran $95 higher last week and is now up $165 from its lows

Recap: The futures market ran $95 higher last week and is now up $165 from its lows. The cash market also had a good week, rallying $55. It is up almost $90 from its lows. While the previous week’s rally was mostly fund buying this week was very well rounded. My thoughts of a tight ranged slog are out the window. The industry is settling into the thick of the economic issue and finding that it isn’t that bad. Many had to enter the cash market sooner than expected to lock in jobs. The market would typically digest after a ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 26

Corn made small gains over the last 2 weeks as news was quiet outside of South American weather with China being on holiday for Chinese New Year. Exports were better than expected this week, but Mexico continues to look at increasing their corn imports from Brazil. The forecast for rain in Argentina over the weekend will direct the trade to start the week. The news to look for in the coming weeks will be purchases from China and any changes in South American weather. Any developments in Ukraine will have ripple effects across the commodity space, but trying to predict ...
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THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The open interest in fund shorts dropped almost 30% for the week

Commentary:  The open interest in fund shorts dropped almost 30% for the week. That answers where the robust buying in March came from. It also shows that the funds are outright liquidating. They did abruptly stop buying as of Wednesday dulling the futures trade. Without the fund buying the futures premium to cash comes into focus. I'll talk about the chart formation when I write the technical piece, but I would suspect a sloppy week is coming. Economic: The positives of the housing industry need to be mentioned often to reenforce the potentials. The chart below is of housing completions ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 13

Corn finished the week strong following the January USDA report. The report had a mix of bullish and bearish news with the USDA raising the yield estimate to 173.3 bu/acre from 172.3 in November. At the same time they cut total production due to lowered harvested acreage while lowering US and world ending stocks. The USDA also lowered production estimates for South America by lowering Argentina yield 3 bu/acre and Brazil 1 bu/acre. Exports were also lowered as a bearish factor with lower usage. The news in the report was slightly bullish for corn and it needed it but there ...
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