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AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 26 – FEBRUARY 9

Corn has had a rough 6 months and continued lower with bearish sentiment and funds being short. The USDA report had higher Brazil corn production than the CONAB numbers by 10.25 MMT. The market has been looking for any good news to help put a floor in and that has not materialized. The one bright spot in exports is that we are ahead of pace to both Japan and Mexico for the year while China’s demand has been poor heading into the Lunar New Year. The USDA report pegged 23/24 US corn stocks at 2.172 billion bushels, close to the ...

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market continues to drift toward the 200-day average

Note: The futures market continues to drift toward the 200-day average. If the market is lower, it drifts up to it; if the market is higher, it drifts down. That average has been flat for months, and the market looks to be near fair value whenever it is close. This is not a buyer or seller manipulation. It is fair value for the current supply and demand. This simplifies the game. If you stay within the goalposts, you make money. Those goalposts are $20 under and $30 over. That was the proper strategy in 2023 and continues into 2024. Can ...

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: CAN IT BE ANY MORE OBVIOUS?

Recap: Can it be any more obvious? For many months, which are now turning into years, the marketplace has been perpetually short. Some by design and some by necessity. The market is always short. That had been a winning strategy. With a shift to tighter supply, pressure on the buy-side is coming into play today. Last week was a good example where an announcement of another mill closure set futures, not cash off. The industry adjusted by exiting futures positions, not buying cash. Where is the panic? The answer lies with the other obvious factor. As long as construction remains ...

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE MARKET TOPPED RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS

Recap: The market topped right before Christmas and now has given back $43 of the $56 rally in March. What we saw last week was the selling gaining momentum. The short-term focus has to be on the range. Is it the low of 537.00 at the start of the December rally, or is it back at $500, March's bottom in November? Here are a few points. There are zero reports of the market struggling. The market is fluid, but it is work. Are there deals showing up? Yes, but on a limited basis and at a higher level. So, the ...

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview January 12, 2024 First Glance: Corn         USDA Yield:   177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov) Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov) Harvested Area:  86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov) 23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov) 23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 MMT (312.9 Estimate – 315.2 Nov) Brazil/ARG Crop: 182 MMT (180 Estimate – 184 Nov) Beans       USDA Yield:   50.6 BPA (49.9 Estimate – 49.9 Nov) Total Crop: 4.165 BBU (4.134 Estimate – 4.129 Nov) Harvested Area:  82.356 (82.757 Estimate – 82.791 Nov) 23/24 US Ending ...