AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 8 – 29
Corn has been a market defined by a tug-of-war between a bearish domestic supply picture and a geopolitical premium that refuses to fully disappear. Coming off the May 8th close, December corn had briefly flirted with the $5 level before pulling back as Iran peace talk optimism ebbed and flowed. The May 12th WASDE report, the first to include 2026/27 new-crop estimates, was the dominant event of the period. USDA pegged 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.957 billion bushels, down from 2.142 billion for 2025/26, a modest tightening but still well above comfortable levels. The initial reaction was muted, with ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices
Summary: Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices—that’s a recipe for a dull trade with thin margins. Seasonally, May into early June is dead money. “Sell in May and go away” exists for a reason. But this year, the takeaway is just firm enough to keep everyone from stepping away entirely. Add in historically lower field inventories (possibly by design), and the market doesn’t have the cushion to relax. Right now, the industry is playing prevent defense—always on the field, focused on not losing. That’s a tough way to operate in a commodity business, especially when costs are sticky and conviction ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Housing data continues to grind along
Weekly Recap: Key Takeaways: On Friday, May futures expired a buck over July. That means that there is no downside gap to go after. Also, the spread traded +4. We haven't seen that since Sept of 2023. A case is building for less bad... Housing data continues to grind along—not hot, not falling apart. 2026 is pacing slightly ahead of last year, but the bigger story remains margin compression. Costs are sticky, financing isn’t getting easier, and the entire chain is operating lean. Demand is there, but conviction is thin. This isn’t a demand problem—it’s a willingness problem. Nobody is ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better
Weekly Recap: Macro / Demand Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better, with 2026 new home numbers running modestly ahead of 2025. Currently we do not a recessionary setup—but a margin problem. Inflation-driven costs keep squeezing profitability across the chain, leaving builders and dealers operating day-to-day with little appetite for risk. Demand exists, but conviction doesn’t. The market is reverting to its mean where there are no more easy buys, replacement cost are higher, and resistance to paying up is building. Ironically, that reluctance could be what sets up higher prices later—higher prices, not demand destruction, may become the real pain point ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 17 – MAY 8
Corn has been a tale of two forces over the past three weeks. Coming off the euphoria of Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening announcement on April 17th, markets initially attempted to stabilize, but that news seemed short-lived as volatility in the middle east kept markets volatile. With the war premium in and out of the market, it has been trying to trade both geopolitical news and fundamentals, and those fundamentals remain heavy. U.S. ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, kept a ceiling on any sustained rally, and fast planting progress added some pressure. The USDA's ...
