LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The focus on trade last week was the final liquidation in July
The focus on trade last week was the final liquidation in July, which initially pushed July prices sharply lower and dragged September down with it. By Friday, September had clawed its way back to nearly even on the week. We did hear reports of numerous cracks in some items in the cash market. As of Thursday, we viewed the September break as primarily July-related. By Friday, that view became less certain, and now there is growing concern that a cash adjustment period may be developing. The market should give us that answer early this week. Heads up: Over roughly the last ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: September finished the week up $11
This Week: The September finished the week up $11. It felt a whole lot better than only 11 bucks. This is a supply-driven market rally, and with no layups, the industry can’t trade. It is forcing them to pay up each time. The mills are going along for the ride. If this type of market stays in place—and there is no reason it doesn’t—all will be forced to relish making 3% on a car..... More of the same. The spread traded into a plus 1.10 before reversing and resuming the expiration selloff. With futures trading in a slight uptrend, the ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 26 – JULY 10
Corn spent the first half of this stretch grinding to fresh contract lows before finding its footing over the past week, catching a bid on a firming weather-risk premium heading into pollination. The June 30th Acreage and Grain Stocks reports were largely a non-event, with planted acreage at 95.343 million acres, essentially unchanged from the March intentions despite widespread expectations for a cut, and harvested acreage pegged at 87.4 million, down 4% from last year. Friday's report delivered the bigger surprise: USDA cut 2025/26 old-crop ending stocks 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion, 50 million below expectations, on stronger feed ...
Leonard Lumber Report: Now What?
Now What? It was a very quiet pre-holiday week, with most of the attention focused on getting out rather than getting in. Who was doing the exiting remains unclear because the COT data is delayed by the Beeks transition. We should get a clearer picture tomorrow. Price action was uneventful. Most sessions traded sideways on light volume, with Thursday's modest rally providing the week's only real spark. The 620 area continues to act as solid support in both contracts, and the fundamentals appear to support that floor. Ironically, the caution in the market is helping keep takeaway better than expected ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The correction finally showed up.
The correction finally showed up. After weeks of a steady grind higher, July futures gave back $15, working off an overbought condition. Important for the near term—but the bigger story is positioning. Both sides are heading for the exits. The long industry is bailing. The short funds are covering. Positioning has been cleaned up aggressively, and there’s likely more to go. That’s where it gets interesting for the longer term. Open interest is shifting in a meaningful way: - Funds are now net long - Industry is now net short That’s not just noise—it tells you something. The industry has ...
