LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market scratched and clawed to rally a few dollars last week
The Lumber Market: The futures market scratched and clawed to rally a few dollars last week while the cash market searched for a bottom. The futures market did rally about $18 off its Monday's lows, but it was a grind. The isn't any confidence on the upside so any follow through will be limited. Cash does look better, but not enough to bring in the futures buyers. The next part of the cycle is the mills selling wood and building files. That could take time and keep things flat. The general market is flat and confused for the upcoming construction ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 31 – APRIL 14
Old crop corn has had a strong rally over the last 2 weeks, having a 40 cent rally after trading relatively flat since its 80 cent pullback in February. While markets were rallying before President Trump’s announcement of a 90 day pause on tariffs, they liked that news to push higher. Any positive news about negotiations with Mexico would be great for corn. The April 10th crop report cut old crop stocks more than expected on increased exports by 100 million bushels, but a modest 25-million-bushel demand cut to US feed demand. US planting should accelerate this week as weather ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures ran up about 33% after the election. It has given back almost 25% of it since the tariff announcement
The Lumber Market: Futures ran up about 33% after the election. It has given back almost 25% of it since the tariff announcement. The futures market is staying within the parameters of the news. We would like the inclines and declines to be more subdued, but everything we hear is vague. That has the trade pushing buttons left and right. What's interesting is the commitment of trader's report that is compiled Tuesday to Tuesday. As of Tuesday, Wednesday was the crazy up day, the industry added 784 longs and liquidated a whopping 1684 shorts. The funds exited 1323 longs and ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: It’s hard to believe that we could start to discuss a housing problem in the near future
The Lumber Market: It's hard to believe that we could start to discuss a housing problem in the near future. A week ago, there wasn't an economic reason to talk about a recession. Today it is real. The key is the stock market. No one disagrees that a sell-off was needed. The mag 7, especially Nvidia, ran the market up. Today the market is taking the froth back. What we see in equities in these situations is a massive increase in sellers. You first have to stop the selling and then build confidence back. In 2009 and 2021 the government ...
Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31
The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now ...
