Blog

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 28 – MAY 12

The May USDA report was mixed but the most bullish news out of it was lowering expected yield to 177 bu/acre from 181. This adjustment trumped the other numbers as US and world stocks were higher than expected. The USDA appears to think demand rationing is in the future but is also aware the late panted US crop will not achieve record yield.  The USDA did not change their estimates for Brazil’s safrinha crop, their estimates remain a few hundred million bushels over private estimates. Corn planting was seen as being 22% complete to start the week with more progress ...
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The Tug of War on Fertilizer Prices —Are Prices Staying or Going with Dick Stiltz

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America's farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page from "The Clash" should we stay or should we go?! And, we aren't the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, "What will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don't want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan." In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local ...
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The Leonard Lumber Report: The Fundamentals of our Market are Sound

Change for the Week: May Futures:    1000.10 -39.60 Open Interest:   2503 -184 Commitment of Traders:   -105 industry longs -104 spec longs The fundamentals of our market are sound. Repeat; the fundamentals are sound, and there is a strong backlog of business. More business appears every day, and the marketplace is accepting these price levels. That makes today's market fundamentally sound. The issue is that a lot of that new business has already been bought, and there is prompt wood all over. That leads to the trade having to define its value areas.  It is complicated to define value today. The ...
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AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 21 – 28

Corn continues to move higher as planting has gotten off to a slow start in the US and Brazil’s safrinha crop is facing drought conditions, shrinking their crop. The wet and cool forecasts remain into May for the north and eastern corn belt which will make it unlikely to see much planting progress in those areas. The rain will be welcome in the western corn belt that has been dry and making slow progress in planting, but the rain will be welcome for the soil even if it slows planting for a day or two. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine ...
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The Leonard Lumber Report: It Was A Grind Higher Week in Futures

Change for the Week: May Futures: 1002.60 +113.60 Open Interest: 2848 +66 CoT: + 108 Industry    It was a grind higher week in futures as the cash trade found traction. The timing of this cash buy has come about earlier than many would have liked. Logistics and timing continue to be the issue, and these issues have pushed the trade to the futures for some upside risk management. In today's volatile environment, most find risk management to be a must. The futures did see light selling by Friday, but it mainly was Dow-related. It's time to reintroduce the elephant. The great debate ...
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