LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better
Weekly Recap: Macro / Demand Housing data continues to lean neutral-to-slightly better, with 2026 new home numbers running modestly ahead of 2025. Currently we do not a recessionary setup—but a margin problem. Inflation-driven costs keep squeezing profitability across the chain, leaving builders and dealers operating day-to-day with little appetite for risk. Demand exists, but conviction doesn’t. The market is reverting to its mean where there are no more easy buys, replacement cost are higher, and resistance to paying up is building. Ironically, that reluctance could be what sets up higher prices later—higher prices, not demand destruction, may become the real pain point ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 17 – MAY 8
Corn has been a tale of two forces over the past three weeks. Coming off the euphoria of Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening announcement on April 17th, markets initially attempted to stabilize, but that news seemed short-lived as volatility in the middle east kept markets volatile. With the war premium in and out of the market, it has been trying to trade both geopolitical news and fundamentals, and those fundamentals remain heavy. U.S. ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, kept a ceiling on any sustained rally, and fast planting progress added some pressure. The USDA's ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Lumber futures are choppy and directionless
Recap: Lumber futures are choppy and directionless, basically mirroring a housing market stuck in neutral. From the builders to distribution, the game plan is to contain losses. Trade has been dominated by the roll, not fresh conviction buying or selling. Futures made new contract lows and bounced—a pattern we’ve seen repeatedly for nearly two years, with rallies failing quickly and momentum nowhere to be found. Just ask the longs who make pennies and give back dollars. The macro housing backdrop is decisively neutral. Existing‑home sales are weak, first‑time buyers are sidelined, inventory is improving only marginally, and mortgage rates remain a headwind—not ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week
Recap: The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week. That said, it made a new contract low and then rallied. We saw that pattern a week earlier—and frankly, we’ve seen some version of it for nearly two years now. Rallies continue to lack momentum, fail quickly, and ultimately find themselves testing new lows. A technician put it best last week: these trends are neither bullish nor bearish—they’re bullshit. There’s no trend, no follow‑through, and no conviction. The broader economic backdrop for housing remains decisively neutral, and neutral markets have a nasty habit of killing their own rallies without outside ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week
Recap: Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week. Many are pointing to the Montreal gathering as the culprit, but it’s questionable whether any meaningful movement would have materialized regardless. May finished the week up $6, though total volume remained light throughout. The only notable development came from the Commitment of Traders report, which showed another sizable jump in producer longs alongside a further increase in fund shorts. Overall, the best way to describe last week’s trade is simply uneventful. The futures market managed to hold above a new low on this move, suggesting there is still underlying demand ...
