AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT
First Glance: Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat. Corn 24/25 US Corn Stocks: 1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate) 24/25 World Corn Stocks: 288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate) ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “Lumber, lumber, we don’t need no stinkin lumber.”
The Lumber Market: "Lumber, lumber, we don't need no stinkin lumber." Or is it, Badges? Trump is coming after the Canadian lumber industry with both barrels. The problem is the current Canadian government does not like or support the industry so who's on their side? The biggest and very unintended consequence of all may not be sharply higher prices but a real slowdown in the US housing sector. It is already fighting just to stay flat. This may just send investors to other markets, thus reducing the dollars available in the housing sector. You cool the housing sector, and you ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market continued to rally last week
The Lumber Market: The futures market continued to rally last week. This time, the driver was the fund liquidating shorts. Two weeks ago, it was a substantial cash trade. Last week, it was the roll and liquidation. The cash trade was good last week, but the futures trade was all fund related. On Friday, a mill went off the market, which resulted in nary a ripple in futures. At this point, we need a third catalyst to help the market higher. Factors to watch: A slowing Euro supply Quota information (If the producers get the funds back as usual, this is only a ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 27 – FEBRUARY 14
Corn rode the wave higher following the updated USDA numbers in the January report with old crop prices settling into a range and 2025 steadily moving higher. The funds are long 1.8 billion bushels and staying long which is helping this market higher with the general fear being a huge corn acreage number for this year that could present a problem. South American weather remains consistent with non-threatening forecasts while the US has a striking cold few days coming. There are multiple items supporting a continued grind higher from here, but funds have their hand on the scale so keeping ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The dynamic of supply and demand guides most commodities markets
The Lumber Market: The dynamic of supply and demand guides most commodities markets. Admittedly some do have a slight amount of emotion added to the trade. Not here. Lumber is different. Most of the trade is based on opinions, emotions, and rumors. Supply and demand factors are secondary. We all know it as a fact and have learned to trade the whole package. This last go-around in futures was a perfect example of the smooth-out cycle that many economists embrace. The thought is pricing smooths out over time. Not in a few hours. While I agree with the theory, I ...
