LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: CAN IT BE ANY MORE OBVIOUS?
Recap: Can it be any more obvious? For many months, which are now turning into years, the marketplace has been perpetually short. Some by design and some by necessity. The market is always short. That had been a winning strategy. With a shift to tighter supply, pressure on the buy-side is coming into play today. Last week was a good example where an announcement of another mill closure set futures, not cash off. The industry adjusted by exiting futures positions, not buying cash. Where is the panic? The answer lies with the other obvious factor. As long as construction remains ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE MARKET TOPPED RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS
Recap: The market topped right before Christmas and now has given back $43 of the $56 rally in March. What we saw last week was the selling gaining momentum. The short-term focus has to be on the range. Is it the low of 537.00 at the start of the December rally, or is it back at $500, March's bottom in November? Here are a few points. There are zero reports of the market struggling. The market is fluid, but it is work. Are there deals showing up? Yes, but on a limited basis and at a higher level. So, the ...
USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview
USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview January 12, 2024 First Glance: Corn USDA Yield: 177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov) Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov) Harvested Area: 86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov) 23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov) 23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 MMT (312.9 Estimate – 315.2 Nov) Brazil/ARG Crop: 182 MMT (180 Estimate – 184 Nov) Beans USDA Yield: 50.6 BPA (49.9 Estimate – 49.9 Nov) Total Crop: 4.165 BBU (4.134 Estimate – 4.129 Nov) Harvested Area: 82.356 (82.757 Estimate – 82.791 Nov) 23/24 US Ending ...
Leonard Lumber Report: The futures trade last week looked flat
Recap: On the surface, the futures trade last week looked flat. The net change for the week was up $2. In fact, the last seven sessions have seen closes within a $4 range. A digestion phase after the run-up? Underneath the surface, things are changing. We have shifted the fund shorts over to the industry. Wood is now hedged. We have also shifted some of the industry longs over to new fund longs. The makeup of the futures market today is friendly. It is not a signal to buy, but it could generate higher prices on its own. The futures market ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE VOLKER RALLY
Happy Holidays to all and your families. Recap: The Volker rally. The markets reacted very positively to Powell's comments on lower rates sooner. The comments were in stark contrast to the previous comments about higher for longer. The lumber market was no different, squeezing out gains for the week. So, while there are positives on the horizon, the facts are the futures market has been flat for over 75 weeks. (see chart below) That is a long time without a trend. The housing market has a like dynamic. if you look at today's active listings, new listings, and closed sales; ...
