LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: HEADWINDS, BROWN SHOOTS, INTEREST RATES
Recap: Headwinds, brown shoots, interest rates—whatever data we look at is not good. The question is whether we have to start worrying about the housing market. We were looking for more but didn't get it. What we have is the same market we have had for 17 months now. It has pockets of positives followed by a long bleed. That has been the lumber market for over 40 years now. It is tradable and profitable when one adapts to the trade mode. So what does that look like? Buying into a falling market has always been a challenge for most. For a few ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: IT WAS A TOUGH WEEK FOR CASH AND FUTURES
Recap: It was a tough week for cash and futures as the quiet market pushed prices lower. Before we sound the alarm, the market is $22 off its high and $18 off the low. After 20 sessions, the market sits in the middle. At this time of year, the market tends to put in a seasonal low. This battle with a $35 range is mildly friendly. This marketplace is not heading for the exits. The industry and speculators are firmly committed to the long side, while the funds are firmly committed to the short side. If you are long waiting ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10
Corn has seen a strong rally over the last couple of weeks as planting is slightly delayed in parts of the US and funds seem to have changed their tone a bit. Last week’s USDA Report did not have any earth-shattering news but did provide some good news for the markets. US corn stocks were lower than estimates heading into the report along with world stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25. The production outlook for this year, 181 bu/ac, continues to show how the advances in agronomic practices and seed genetics continue to grow. All of these carryout and stocks ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: MIXED REVIEWS
Recap: Mixed reviews. That is the industry's opinion of this market. What we saw in futures last week was slightly more positive than mixed. Futures are showing signs of a turn. The market closed slightly higher for the second week as print continued down. It also works higher on low volume. That indicates a muted computer trade down here. The fundamentals are the focus. The funds are short but didn't add much for the week. This lack of momentum puts them on the sidelines. So, with all the blah in the market, I would expect more of the same this ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: IT WAS A BETTER WEEK FOR TRADING
Recap: It was a better week for trading. The market seemed to drift into a bottoming formation, followed by a couple of good spike-up days and a new low for the move. We can call it a bottoming action, supportive, new low, or dead cat bounce. I heard all of them. What it did was cause the trade to be bullish one day and bearish the next. While the trade was highly volatile, the net for the week was only a $8 gain. What was different last week was that, for the first time, we had a few green shoots ...
