LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The correction finally showed up.
The correction finally showed up. After weeks of a steady grind higher, July futures gave back $15, working off an overbought condition. Important for the near term—but the bigger story is positioning. Both sides are heading for the exits. The long industry is bailing. The short funds are covering. Positioning has been cleaned up aggressively, and there’s likely more to go. That’s where it gets interesting for the longer term. Open interest is shifting in a meaningful way: - Funds are now net long - Industry is now net short That’s not just noise—it tells you something. The industry has ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 12 – 26
Corn spent the last two weeks trying to carve out a bottom after the brutal three-week stretch of fund liquidation that ran from Memorial Day into mid-month. Managed Money had been selling aggressively, and while that pace finally cooled, the selling pressure left December corn defending the $4.40 area with the season-average farm price forecast sitting right on top of the market. The catalysts that drove the spring rally have all moved the wrong way: planting weather has been close to ideal, crop establishment across the Corn Belt has been excellent, and crude oil has continued to leak lower as ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures kept working higher last week
The grind higher continues. Futures kept working higher last week, but you’re starting to feel the weight of an overbought market. Cash didn’t care—it pushed higher again. The pipeline is still a question mark, but what matters right now is simple: there’s business getting done every day, and it’s getting done at higher levels. Mills deserve some credit here. They cleared out excess a few weeks back ahead of this buy wave, and now they’re sitting in a position of control. Files are in good shape, and because of that: A futures pullback doesn’t ripple into cash. Not right now. It’s ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 29 – JUNE 12
Corn has been under persistent pressure since Memorial Day weekend, with funds aggressively liquidating long positions built up over the spring. Managed Money has sold hard across the corn market going on the last 3 weeks, while the pace has slowed, they could continue selling if they want. The primary catalyst has been a combination of favorable planting weather, excellent crop establishment across the corn belt, and a crude oil market that has been retreating as Iran peace talks progressed. The June WASDE brought few surprises on corn. USDA described the 2026/27 corn outlook as "virtually unchanged" from May, with ...
Leonard Lumber Report: After five weeks of chop, futures finally broke out
Summary: After five weeks of chop, futures finally broke out. The $20 move was a welcome sight and pulled cash along with it. Mills did their part keeping a lid on things—trying to build files rather than chase. Classic lumber pop. No one’s shocked that it is happening. The question is what comes next. Normally, this is where a market starts to build a run. But recent history says these moves have been one-and-done. So, at 608, I’m not ready to assume we’re headed for 618, then 628. This market still has to prove itself—and that likely means specs stepping ...
