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Recap: The market is in trouble. Last week's trade was the giveback for futures hitting $620. Now what? The trade was out of sync all week. Futures headed lower while the industry was buying. The selling was met with large buy orders all the way down. These opposing dynamics create a bearish atmosphere. Between the industry buying back shorts, the roll and the makeup of the open interest there is much to unpack. Let's give it a try. The industry shorts liquidated 1339 contracts in the last reporting period. I have to start by saying that the number is more ...

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between ...

Recap: Coming into the week we were expecting a sloppy trade. With a later Thanksgiving and the recent run up, a technical correction was not out of the question. The problem is that lumber futures have a tendency of unwinding gains in a hurry. That's what we saw in January futures from Wednesday on. There was no change in market conditions to warrant a rollover so what caused the steep selloff? The lumber market has changed. There will be times of tightness exclusively caused by supply reductions. JIT from here on out will keep you undersupplied in a trending higher ...

December ’24 corn rallied back to the $4.30-point last week, matching its recent highs from the start of the month. Corn’s 40+ cent rally from the August lows has been very welcome as harvest wrapped up and bins were getting full. Corn struggled to hold this level of trading for long a few weeks ago but with the December contract getting ready to expire and all the focus shifting to March the markets need some help to push to the $4.50 mark. Funds are long 550 million bushels of corn, the largest long position in 21 months. The November 8th ...

Recap: New highs going into NAWLA? Now that is different. I think it also shows how this market has been turning early for months now. This lack of supply followed by a lack of demand cycle has kept the buy side off balance. The data indicates that the demand pattern, while not busy, is coming in more often. Buyers are used to a longer lag between buys so are not ready for the next one so soon. There is also an effect on the production side as they drop prices more aggressively looking for a longer lag. I can see ...