LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: It was a tough week for the cash market
The Lumber Market: It was a tough week for the cash market as mills were forced to lower prices to get rid of excesses. Futures on the other hand, held value. It was a very slow volume week as the trade stayed on the sidelines. While this is normally a hard time to read the market, it is obviously much harder this year. A few keys to be watching: I have been preaching about the high amount of inventory out in the field. Every week that number is reduced. A couple day run in cash could even things up and ...
Tariff Tensions Return: Will History Rhyme for Grain Markets?
What are we to make of the on-again, off-again tariff threats and realities flying around markets these past several weeks? Will this crush American consumers, hurt American farmers, or be the panacea Trump hopes for? Well, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes, as they say... and we've seen this movie before. The Previous Tariff Episode: A $13.2 Billion Lesson When trade tensions escalated during the previous Trump administration, grain markets felt the shockwaves immediately. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS) quantified these impacts in stark terms: retaliatory tariffs from six major trading partners cost U.S. agriculture $13.2 ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: SHIFT TO A “COST OF SUPPLY VS DEMAND” MARKET
The Lumber Market: There has been a shift from a supply and demand market to a "cost of supply vs. demand" market. By that I mean the actual supply does not have a relationship with its cost. The cost will be driven by a tariff charge. Let's separate the two. If there were not any tariff threats facing the market today, the slack demand would be pressuring the market lower. I have seen so many times in the past of a spring that never developed. The wood bought covered the wood needed. It's starting to have that type of feel ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT
First Glance: Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat. Corn 24/25 US Corn Stocks: 1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate) 24/25 World Corn Stocks: 288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate) ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “Lumber, lumber, we don’t need no stinkin lumber.”
The Lumber Market: "Lumber, lumber, we don't need no stinkin lumber." Or is it, Badges? Trump is coming after the Canadian lumber industry with both barrels. The problem is the current Canadian government does not like or support the industry so who's on their side? The biggest and very unintended consequence of all may not be sharply higher prices but a real slowdown in the US housing sector. It is already fighting just to stay flat. This may just send investors to other markets, thus reducing the dollars available in the housing sector. You cool the housing sector, and you ...
