AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 4 – 29
Corn has been range-bound the last 2 months between $4 and $4.40. With no weather issues during harvest following a very dry end of the growing season, the market did not get any unexpected help to push it higher. Mexico continues to buy US corn at a fast pace, appearing again in the export reports. With no major problems starting the year in South America and smooth sailing to the finish of US harvest there does not appear to be anything to give this market a boost. Expect technicals to play a major role in the direction of the trade ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Lumber is a very complicated commodity
Recap: Lumber is a very complicated commodity with the most moving parts of any I have dealt with. That said, it is a commodity and commodities trade value. Lumber is only $20 either side of a trade and can't get there. If you look at a weekly chart you'll need a microscope to see the trading ranges for the last 5 weeks. Someone said last week that this market is coiling ready itself for a blowup. I said the same thing 12 months ago. I'm hoping he is closer to right than I was. My point is that the market ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: There is malaise over almost every market out there
Recap: There is malaise over almost every market out there, whether it is corn or equities. Lumber is no different. The futures market has traded between 538 and 515 for 14 straight sessions. There is no energy and no real direction. The lumber market is flat, as is housing. The upcoming election may be a factor, but even that has gone flat. Economic uncertainty has put us all back into the weeds. That is friendly. Lumber gets bought in the fall. The longer one waits, the higher it will go. Today, the lumber futures are not showing signs of going higher. It shows signs ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – OCTOBER 4
Corn’s rally back to $4.25 has been welcome heading into harvest as South America’s weather started off a little weary but have added rains to the upcoming forecast. The US drought to end growing season does not appear to have impacted the corn crop very much. Export demand has picked up putting us ahead of the USDA annual projections. The recent rally has taken corn above other major exporters which will likely lead to slowing exports unless South American weather becomes more of a concern. Harvest has gotten off to an average start with 21% harvested as dry weather shouldn’t ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Data is starting to confirm a change in market dynamics
Recap: Data is starting to confirm a change in market dynamics. The funds exited 1000 shorts from Tuesday to Tuesday, leaving them with 3500 pre-roll. The Oct 1st. mark tends to be the start of the funds cleaning their positions by year-end. The futures focus is always on the funds and algos as they drive our market. They will rally it further than warranted and drive it lower than the actual market. It does it in all commodities markets. They tend to create a speculative value outside the bounds of the fundamentals. We have seen a few highs and lows recently that confirm ...
