LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: January gained $10 for the week, but it felt much better than that
Happy Veterans Day! One of our own, a World War II veteran, is celebrating this weekend. I believe he was in the Army-Aircorp and served with the French underground. Jack Hall from Hall Lumber Sales in Middleton, Wis, is 99 years old. If you are wondering what he likes, he is a big proponent of owning more precious metals and less cash. Happy Veterans Day to all who served! Recap: January gained $10 for the week, but it felt much better than that. Momentum is getting created just by the fact that sentiment is less bad. While the upside is ...
AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9
The November USDA Report raised US yields and ending stocks. From what we have been hearing about yields in the eastern corn belt the rise in yields was not that unexpected while a 1.9 bu/ac jump higher to 174.9 was not quite expected. Rarely does the November report differ so much from the Sep/Oct yields, but the yields in IL, IN, and OH made up for losses seen in the western corn belt and plains. Current support is at $4.67 for Dec corn, but a close below that could lead lower. If that holds, we should expect the sideways trade ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: I would not call it the Great Reset, but there was definitely cash trading last week
Recap: I would not call it the Great Reset, but there was definitely cash trading last week. What started as traders covering cash turned into a global buy. We also saw a mill go up $18 in less than 24 hours. That was reminiscent of the 21-22 trade when they threw a dart each morning. Let's face it: the mills need to get prices higher, and their marketing for the last 18 months hasn't done it. The marketplace was extremely underbought, and they took advantage of it. Is it a tighter market? Most likely not, but like futures two weeks ...
Leonard Lumber report: The immense tension in the lumber industry is lower mill costs and less demand versus a new face of the pent-up market
Recap: The immense tension in the lumber industry is lower mill costs and less demand versus a new face of the pent-up market. No better example of what lies ahead from this tension is the way futures traded on Thursday. A pattern of voids is developing that will cause higher prices as the industry now gets long futures and is no longer hedging. In the short run, the industry's one-sidedness will continue to create downward pressure. The makeup will look like an overbought condition, with prices going lower. Time has been good to the mills. We are going on 20 months ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand
Recap: We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand. Each negative seems to overwhelm the positive. While the housing pace continues on its post-COVID run, there are signs of fatigue. As we measure ongoing business, we continue to get hit with bad news. The 8% mortgage was expected. The fact that it went from 8 to 8.10 in less than 24 hours wasn't. We are seeing the fatigue factor mixing in with lousy economics. The next six months will be a street fight. The good news is this industry will stop buying, leading ...
