USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE
2023 Yield Estimate: 173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate) 23/24 US Corn Stocks: 2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate) 23/24 World Corn Stocks: 312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) The USDA lowered US corn yield 0.5 bu/ac which is in line with what we have been hearing from farmers in the field with many areas having great yields but the July heat and dryness did too much damage in other areas. The USDA lowered exports by 25 million ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The housing market is entering into a “great pause.”
Recap: The housing market is entering into a "great pause." That will show up as less buying, selling, and construction. The lumber side of this industry has already been in the great pause mode for most of 2023. Housing has a typical pause nearing year-end, clearing the decks and creating a good spring. Some now are projecting the slowness to be carried through the spring. The futures market has been the best form of price discovery this year. The last few weeks have been a good example of that. Futures rallied about $17 last week while the cash market collapsed ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “Everyone is worried about everything.”
“Everyone is worried about everything.” That was a quote from a Morgan Stanley person regarding the overall economy Friday. Worry is the emotion driving our industry today. I’ll attempt to temper that despair. Let’s face it: the market has been flat for almost 18 months. The profit margins have shrunk to pre-2000 levels. Every dollar earned is hard work. Welcome back. Could this type of market be with us for another 18 months? I hope not, but it will be here for a while more. The greatest attribute of the lumber industry is the trader’s ability to make lemonade out ...
USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview
First Glance: Overview: The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 ...
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday
Recap: The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday. Futures went from a discount to par. The bounce was not unexpected. A correction was needed after the longer-than-expected down leg we just sat through. With JIT inventory management, the buyers are near fumes after about four weeks. What was surprising was that most of the future's upside was driven by speculative or fund buying, not the industry. Those in the industry could continue to pick off deals all week. That was the catalyst for the selling on Friday. Some of the spec side didn't see the ...
