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30 May 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Last week it was about demand. This week it’s all about the structure

Summary:

Last week it was about demand. This week it’s all about the structure. I mentioned a few years back how the face of this industry was changing. I think it’s here. Never have we seen home builders’ stock hit new highs in a lumber bear market. And never have we seen a distributor have more sales than many of the producers. Today the product moves very fluidly from the mill to the builder and without disruptions allows for a lower-priced commodity. That is what it looks like out there.

Let’s look at a few numbers. In the last few weeks, Pulte, and DR Horton both hit 5-year highs. Toll was right behind them. The lack of supply on the market allows them to build and sell every day at a continued high margin. Wallstreet sees that continuing. So, despite the high prices of homes and high mortgages, the market is still out there.

Now let’s go through the first quarter numbers of two of the players. West Fraser did $1.6 billion in sales with a net loss of $ 42 million. Builders First Source did $3.8 billion in sales with a net income of $333.8 million. Their gross profit margin was up 300 pts to 35.3%. You would have to group a few mills together to reach BFS sales. This is just one of the big three distributors out there. The mills have been laser-focused on the contracts and consignment structure. It works well in a bull market as the print tends to hold a premium. It doesn’t work in a bear market where print holds a discount. It is a win-win for distribution. An upmarket allows for an additional margin to be added. In a down market, they get the spread between the cash price and the selling price. Basically in a down market, they keep all the margin excess. I have to add that there are many players out there that have some of the same programs because of their sheer size today.

For us lay people what this means is that the remainder of the market is in competition with themselves. The net result is more product chasing fewer dollars in a flat market. You either go to a third party for help (the futures market) or you chase the low. A $60 premium is a windfall. A $30 premium is great.

Technical:

It took till Friday, but we did hit the $485 number. There wasn’t even a ripple of short covering for the weekend. The RSI is now at 26.80%. With a ROC of .5 to 1 there is room to go down. This isn’t the type of market that will “test” areas. It will just be a grinder until help arrives. The focus is on the 2023 trendline which comes in at 504.50. The line is almost 6 months old. It is important.

Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

22 May 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: IT WAS ANOTHER SLOW WEEK IN BOTH FUTURES AND CASH

Summary:

It was another slow week in both futures and cash. As we search for answers, we just may not be asking the right question. The question is if demand is our problem. The data isn’t showing it. Reports from the field aren’t showing it, but this industry’s general malaise today is not typical. All the other sectors of the economy experienced covid interruptions, as did lumber. They have all cleaned up logistics issues allowing for lower prices. So why have most other sectors experienced a pick-up in demand from the lower prices while lumber has not? There is a key headwind from this malaise. This industry has an extremely slow-moving cycle where most others don’t. This lagging grind may just shift the cycle. Today we are in a positive upcycle. All the dynamics are still in place, but the shift may be quietly developing. This is a big call. This rolls the homebuilders and producer’s stocks to a sell. Let’s dig into the factors at risk.

The most apparent today is rates. They have become much stickier in the mid-6 % range than expected. Yes, builders are buying the rates down today and yes, they won’t stay high forever, but it may just hang high enough to change the buyer’s attitude. Today there is a much smaller percentage of first-time home buyers in the market. The doubling of rates has forced them to the sidelines. High median home prices also have hurt. They are on the sidelines not out of the market. If unemployment starts to creep up and there are job losses near the entry level, they may just change their way of thinking. You lose that core group, and you lose the market.

Another issue today is the fact that about 35% of new buyers were funds and spec groups buying and either renting or selling the homes. You think of names like Blackrock who have been very active in this sector. With rates on the rise, their participation has dropped substantially for the 2022 highs. Higher rates limit profits and increase risks. Now if rates do start to fall it will become a viable investment again, but here is where the long lag could hurt. The longer the lag the more likely they will develop another investment for the money and move away from home buying.

I’ve been talking about the “sweet spot” for the buyers. That’s said to be a sub-5 % mortgage and a $350,000 home. That is what the new buyer can afford. If you move this out 3 to six months, the equation moves from what they can afford to what they are willing to pay. That psyche shift will have a long and negative effect on home buying.

The housing industry needs to find economic confidence. It doesn’t look as if that can be created in the near future. Not when the discussion focuses on when the recession will hit.

Technical:

The read continues to be one of a neutral call. The 513.50 area on the upside is still in play as is the 485.00 support. There hasn’t been much movement but when there is the market runs up and then makes a new low. The stochastics have done a great job of calling this type of trade. It is still showing a bearish tone. There are no indicators supporting a directional move development. Old school tells us that lumber doesn’t stay sideways for that long. I’m guessing that the market will either see the low 480’s or the high 5teens this week. Enjoy the week and the beautiful weather.

Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

08 May 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The entire economic world is waiting for the next shoe to drop

The entire economic world is waiting for the next shoe to drop. Well, last week the shoes got new laces. This doom and gloom weighs on us all. The housing sector may feel the biggest chunk of it. As we try to piece together all the reasons why lumber prices are low we may just be missing the key component. The 12-year bull market is over ending after the most volatile time in history. What’s wrong with the market falling back to more normal prices and staying flat for a few years? Is there any history to back that up?

The market spiked to all-time highs in May of 2018 and then settled back and went flat for almost 20 months. It was only after covid hit that the market changed dynamics. Those changed dynamics brought unprecedented wealth to this industry. Some would say unsustainable in an industry based on readily available and easily produced commodity. Now that the market has gone flat, firms are scrambling to see if the added structure will work or not. That dance keeps many out of the market or in it at a limited capacity. That quietness should also cause an underbought lumber industry which has yet to happen. We have grown so big that we can’t define small yet. The market will probably help out with that one.

Today’s challenge is how to trade a lot of wood for little money. A long runway to the upside is shrinking by the day. A profit quickly turns into a loss. Something unheard of only a few months ago. This type of cycle will bring the focus back to the use of risk management. Small losses will smooth themselves out. Big losses won’t. In recent years the reluctance to use futures was because it limited gains. Today you need to use it to limit losses. Defense is as much mental as it is physical. It takes time, energy, and studies to make it work.

Technically this market has been in a perfect down channel since May of 2022. One year later it is in the same channel without any indication of that changing. The 12-month stretch does allow for better analysis. From mid-January of this year, the market has developed an inter-channel with higher parameters. I was able to match both channels and tighten up the projected moves. Since we now need to focus on July (little) the support and resistance lines are both roughly $70 from the $500 market. The key points in July are $430 and $570. The momentum indicators show a low probability of reaching $430 from here. With the need for a buy round and a better probability for it to go up, I’m looking for the $570 to be the objective of a bounce. I will not rule out an expiration failure back to $430 but that’s not for today. Today the market will trade around $500 until relief shows up. 

What we saw Friday was a relief rally across the economic spectrum. Let’s see if one is brewing down here.

Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

01 May 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: All markets, regardless if it is a commodity or equity, will telegraph a change in their trend

All markets, regardless if it is a commodity or equity, will telegraph a change in their trend. The lumber market is one of the easiest markets to predict. It only takes 10 or 12 missteps before you are right. In the few months of 2023, we have gone from expecting a sideways give-it-back market to looking for a recession, and finally, it getting positive. We are now back to the sideways thought process as an industry. The key facts are that the housing sector didn’t get as bad as we thought, but that better-than-expected business didn’t help prices. The demand has not cleaned up the excess supply. May 1st. looks much different than we had thought back on January 1st. or does it?

Are the wholesalers feeding on their young? Yes. Are the buyers locking in jobs at $700 and beating up distribution for another $30? Yes. Is it true that all euro wholesalers can only go out after dark? Yes. We are where we expected to be at this point. The problems on the supply side are working themselves out. It is just looming micro issues now. These micro-dynamic issues should not control pricing, but in this small industry, they do. The industry’s macro dynamics do not look bad. They are just very slow-moving. The macro issue of logs. The macro issue of reduced production, no infrastructure replacement, and the macro issue of costs are all factors that determine the price on a timeline never defined. All we have is Elliot Wave to help.

The main technical read today is the long-term Elliot Wave. The pattern consists of a 1 down in August of 2021, a 2 up in August of 2022, and now a wave 3 down which has not been defined yet. I’m confirming that completion is somewhere between here and May 15th. for 2 reasons. First is that we tend to make our new lows somewhere around expiration and the fact that the next expiration is a delivered price. We need to put an asterisk next to Wave 3 as it might be artificial. I’m not recommending buying July because Wave 3 is in, just defining a bottom.

There have been two very successful strategies for the first 4 months of the year. The first is straight out of futures 101, the basis trade. No one wanted to waste their time making $20 on a basis trade. Today those same naysayers are hoping they don’t lose $20. If you did the basis in LBK rolled it to LBRK and then to July you picked up $50 of basis. Really…. The other success has been the strategy that is older than dirt. Counter those with wood in a falling market and counter them aggressively. There is a rhythm to this market. We have been in a lower high and lower lows cycle that could be shifting to flat highs and higher lows. That brings the “Don’t be the second guy into the Pool” syndrome back into play again.

The one way a market telegraphs a change is through the news. This industry has gone from reports of shutdowns to extensions of those shutdowns. Today’s news is about how many guys showed up late for work. The Beaks of the world are telling us that more of the same is in front of us.

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

24 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THERE COMES A TIME WHEN BEING PROACTIVE AND OR INACTIVE BECOME THE SAME

There comes a time when being proactive and or inactive become the same. That is where this industry is today. A better way to put it is the best offense is a good defense. The daily data bombs send mixed messages. These are messages interpreted differently over the generational chasm. If you are over 40 you are looking for the next shoe to drop in housing. If you are under 40 you are looking for the next opportunity. Neither is right or wrong, just educated differently. Let’s look at the issues.

The first focal point that always amazes me is the difference in cycles between multifamily and single-family. In the last 10 years, single-family construction has had 3 downturns while multifamily has yet to see one. Ask a trader in the multifamily space how things are going, and he will say if this is what a recession looks like then he’ll take it. Ask a single-family trader the same question and he will be leaning more on the negative side. The confusing part is the fact that DR Horton had a great quarter, and the home builder stock index is nearing its all-time highs. Things are not that bad so why can’t wood products pull themselves out of this big hole they dug?

Reports are of almost a record number of multifamily projects going on today. That is why those in that space are enjoying the ride. The confusion is in the single-family sector. Data show that the marketplace is tremendously underbuilt. I think the market is telling us differently. Existing home sales are off sharply. The reason is relatively easy to define. The answer is that a few want to increase their mortgage rate by 200%. This normal supply of homes on the market will not be available for some time. Builders will have to step up to supply the shortfall. Starts are hovering above 2019. That was a year that saw an extreme lack of price volatility. That isn’t my call here. The other focal point is that this market no longer can “lack” volatility. It can remain range bound in the new post covid world but with much wider swings. I think what this market is telling us is that there is still more bottoming work to come.

This coming week I expect to see wide swings caused by position evening in May. There aren’t many who want to carry a position into a no-limit May. That covering will add more pressure down than up. What is marketable is the July contract. It is a few dollars away from being a good hedge buy and also a few dollars away from a good basis trade. The basis traders are cleaning up. July is in the zone.

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

10 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: CROSSWINDS VS. HEADWINDS

Crosswinds verse headwinds. I am starting to wonder if the story is of how we all walked 3 miles to school uphill both ways. We are getting to the point where we may just have to take the charts and data from 2020 to 2023 and put them off to the side. While it is reflective historically it may not be the true focal point today. If we push that information to the side, we can focus on today’s factors. All of which we have experienced in earlier cycles.

Positives:

  • The housing market is underbuilt.
  • There has been a generational shift to owning a home.
  • Labor is tight.
  • Real log issues.
  • Great overall employment.

Negatives:

  • The economic question.
  • Highest rates in years.
  • Euro wood. It is a race to the bottom in the wholesale community.
  • The home mortgage business sits with the community bank. They are becoming more restrictive.

 

The negative factors will smooth themselves out more quickly than the positives. Rates and the Euro wood will be less an issue by the third quarter. The economy on the other hand will take much longer to be defined and then to recover. That will be a hinderance to our market. On the positive side, if you build less houses you take care of the labor issue and keep the marketplace thin. That is the direction the home builders have headed towards.

The question coming into 2023 remains the question today. What should the price of a 2×4 be with a 1.2 or 1.1 starts number? That cannot be answered until the Euro problem has cleared up. What I will say is this market has built a box around it. The first thought coming into the year was a muted 2023 trade. That shifted to a higher trade because of business. Now I am an afraid that it is boxed in. What I mean is that momentum will be created only to get hit from the existing factors. This will show up when inventories are light in a falling market and overbuying in a rising market. That is not a sideways trade. It is a trade that finds momentum and then stops abruptly. Opportunity is only available in the middle and lost when the push up or down is in place. It will break out and trade at a higher level eventually, but not anytime soon. For today, real inventories will be a value while the churn and burn crowd are in the liability zone. There is absolutely no reason not to hedge inventories when in this box and futures are a premium.

 

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

03 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: ALL MARKETS ARE CYCLICAL

All markets are cyclical, and most will return to their historical value area.  In lumber the lens to look through is a long-term one. One that can bypass the noise and create a sharper picture of the market. If you look at 50 years of lumber futures data, you will come up with a mean close to $330. With a $330 mean the closes of January and March so far this year have been normal. Add to that the fact that May is also hellbent on getting there. This is not an abnormal trade. Trading in the $300’s for months and getting about 6% margins is normal. So, what is different this time? The current cycle. Cycles, like waves, are not perfect. The typical long-term cycle runs from 13 to 18 months. Most planted commodities run in 6-to-12-month cycles tied to the growing season. Lumber has a longer cycle because of the timeline of the project. We a currently in our 13th month of a down cycle. The difference is that this cycle started way up at $1477.40. Just a small percentage correction puts the market substantially higher. A $200 rally in a 6% margin environment would be devastating. Then again so would 5 more months of this current cycle.

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

20 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE STRUGGLE BETWEEN WHAT THE LUMBER MARKET WAS AND WHAT IT IS

Recap:

As I write this, I am struggling between what the lumber market was and what it is. It was a low margin high volume structure for a thousand years. In recent years it has turned into a high margin low volume trade. You have to ask which it is today. There have been structural changes to the industry. There was a big consolidation in distribution. A loss of available cut and contraction in production. And most importantly was the change in volatility. Three months into 2023 I’m wondering if we have integrated those changes into the marketplace or need more time. If it has been integrated into the market prices will be range bound. If it has yet to be integrated, then there are higher highs coming.

Markets are efficient when value is defined. A farmer will sell futures if the price is a few pennies over the elevator. It’s called the basis. Over the past few weeks, I have noticed the traders in this industry are reluctant to do a basis trade that will net out a $40 profit after all the expenses. I am not judging. I am just stating one of many issues we have with pricing. The buy side does not trade a $40 gain, nor does the sell side trade a $40 less of a loss. The nature of the trade today will cause more volatility and that volatility will remain until it’s deemed unproductive.

Another aspect of the volatility equation is the fear and greed quotient. Today we are going to redefine it as the fear and fear quotient. The industry is waiting for the other shoe to drop in housing, and it will stay hand to mouth until defined. Last week’s 1.45 starts number was great. I was looking for a 1.1 to 1.2 number coming into spring. The Fed told us that housing would be pushed into a recession. We haven’t seen it. We should all be dancing the tarantella. (Happy St. Joseph’s Day) Instead the big number is all the more reason to practice restraint. Maybe there is a little bit of greed out there too. Why give it back? For whatever the reason, the lumber market will remain underbought.

Technical:

The chart pattern has been flat for almost a year now. It is grinding along the bottom with no end in sight. The market manages a rally every 8 weeks but doesn’t change the pattern. Today the market is sitting on the weekly resistance line from back at the highs of 2022. It’s at 455.00. A close above that area will bring in some buying as signals are set off with the short funds. There are three parts to a cycle today. First is fund short covering followed by the industry buying cash and finished off with spec futures buying. To sum it up, the technicals indicate a market that is $100 away from mediocracy and $200 away from a bull cycle.

 

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

13 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question

Recap:

Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question. The first is “there is a massive new home neighborhood going up next to a 40 acre reload full of Euro wood. The other was “for the first time, housing isn’t leading the shit show.” Very eloquent economic summaries. What we saw last week was a very quiet sideways futures market exhibiting some of those characteristics. The sideways trade was not a building of a trend but a sign of confusion and fear. No one is making a call one way or another at this price. If you look at the cash market, no one is making a call at any price. Historically that is friendly at some point. Let’s do the math.

Since the Fed speak turned up in February of 2022 the futures market has fallen over 76% from the 1477 high. During that same period,  crude fell from $130 to $75 and corn from $8.27 to $6.26. All three commodity markets and most others have felt the effects of the raising of rates. Lumber, unlike the other markets, has pulled back close to its historic norm while all others have not. Is this price indicating a harder bottom coming? Considering the lead time needed in this industry it may take till Q4 of 23 or Q1 of 24 to answer.

Macro: The housing market does not bottom out until rates top.

The micro picture has many other dynamics. I think all would agree that these prices are not good for any producer. That fact alone will cause a slowdown in production. It is already in process. We see it in BC shipments and reports from eastern and southern mills. What is hard to determine is where the number was pre-Fed. While production is getting cut it may be from a 1.7 starts equivalent number. If we took the number from 1.7 to 1.4 then we are still over producing. The market needs to see a production number set for 1.2 starts and an erosion of Euro imports. Then we will have a market again.

Micro: Slowing production will cause upward spikes in prices.

The trade for 2023 will be the basis and the best form of protection will be forward pricing. It won’t be a year of making $15,000 on a truck. It’s back to futures 101. That said, build a fence around your risk. You have banks blowing up and many other created ramifications from the spike in rates. A basis trade needs calls against it. Forward pricing needs puts.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

06 Mar 2023
Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: HOW BAD SHOULD BAD LOOK?

Recap:

How bad should bad look? We are coming up on one year since the Fed began to raise rates and slow the economy. The effects on the housing industry have been drastic. Starts topped at 1805 last April and dropped to 1309 by last month. The price of the commodity has dropped from the $1000 level to $370 during the same period. The Fed has done its job in this sector. I go back to my question of is this bad going to worse or bad to better? Looking at the futures trade so far in 23 I’m starting to see the possibility of the bad to worse scenario not because of lower prices or less construction but because of a flat market. The most pain would be caused by a $400 market for months on end. That is a no volatility environment at a below breakeven price. That is where the Fed would like us to be. There have been two rallies this year so far. The first was started and driven by fund liquidation. The cash market was underbought but took itself to overbought in days. It was a futures driven rally not an uptick in demand. This last rally of $50 was more of the same in futures as the final group of short funds liquidated. This has become a stagnant market. The housing market has correctly reacted to the Fed’s policies. It has stopped the bubble. The Fed will keep it that way.

The lumber market is commodity driven and that gives it two dynamics demand (which is being controlled) and supply. The panic we saw in January was the supply siders buying up the market. There is too much recent history not to create a panic. The producer side is trying to curb excess supply. That is a very difficult maneuver when mill operations have multifunctional reaches and cash flow. What I do know is that production control leads to a hard bottom. It doesn’t slow down before demand picks up. The supply question is and will cause volatility.

Another point that was brought to my attention last week was industry makeup. We talk about the covid effect on the housing industry as being a “one of a kind event.” While I do agree with that fact, I have to add that on September 12th, 2001, things were looking very bad and in 2009 worse. What I realized last week was that a high percentage of the decision makers in our industry today where not in the business in 2009 or 2001. The movement today is what has been successful over the last 5 years or so. Do we overreact or under react?

I’ll finish with the funds. As of February 7th, the funds had a little over 600 longs and 200 shorts. For a two-week period in January the short fund took their 1950 contracts and a ton of money and went home. That was expected, but not over such a short period of time. As we are trying to establish a trading range in futures, I don’t think the January run is one to look at since it was driven by the funds. Better defined bounces are needed.

Technical:

The technical picture is in the process of developing a fan like model. If we keep it simple the midpoint of the fan sits at 356.55 on the weekly chart. That line goes back to the beginning of the Fed action. This week it is support. If the market can hold that trend line the next measurements will be higher ectara. It spreads out in a fan pattern. If this is a correct model, it shows the timeline between steps as being very long. The next line comes in as resistance at $509. Again, this process would be long and drawn out. Most would rather the market just to blow through the points and spike higher. That really is the risk in today’s  market. An unexpected and unwarranted run-up hurting those with jobs. Put a fence around your risk!!

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

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