RCM Ag Services

Category: Housing

11 Nov 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: New highs going into NAWLA?

Recap:

New highs going into NAWLA? Now that is different. I think it also shows how this market has been turning early for months now. This lack of supply followed by a lack of demand cycle has kept the buy side off balance. The data indicates that the demand pattern, while not busy, is coming in more often. Buyers are used to a longer lag between buys so are not ready for the next one so soon. There is also an effect on the production side as they drop prices more aggressively looking for a longer lag. I can see the mills taking a more wait and see approach as the buy side stays in. This is all predicated on a bottom for this to be correct.

I made a call for $600 in the July contract back in April. I was surprised on how long the mills would lose money. The windfall from the last few years certainly allowed for some patience. They also have a good understanding of the cycles. This is one that has to play out. Profitability is getting close. My point is there is a lot of unspent capital out there. There is a lot of dry powdered out there. And the economy is good. Not bad for housing.

This is not going to be an easy ride. There just will be less overall pressure. As we speak, they are backing up the Queen Mary to Cape in Florida. The eastern guys have already turned it up. Supply increasing is the biggest headwind to the market. It is no longer rates. The trade is conditioned to back away at any sign of extra supply. When the wholesale community is in the middle there is this false sense of extra wood available. As I said, it’s not going to be and easy ride from here, but it is better. If the mills start to hedge they will keep the market tight.

Technical:

Going back to what was said above, the market this time did not correlated to the norm. The July to Sept run up, followed by the October lows never materialized. This year the market slowed into September only to walk itself up. The technical picture had turned neutral from negative. That wasn’t enough to buy the market but indicated a change. My point is that all three turns in the technicals to become a trade may not work here. There are times where a lag skews the osculators. This was one. If that remains the case, it indicates some downside in front of us in futures, but just enough to get the tech pic neutral. It continues to lean towards hedging. That hasn’t changed.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

04 Nov 2024
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: It was a very healthy week for both cash and futures

Recap:

It was a very healthy week for both cash and futures. As a combination, it was the best week for price movement all year. The key was the market went higher on its own. There was no outside noise to push it. It was all demand driven. That leads us to three simple scenarios. The first is that the market is still underbought and will stay tight. This could be the case as the “off the market” mill is back in the game. A slow buy could drag the market higher since we’ve had a few years for the buy side to be engrained with less is more. The next scenario is that the market is searching for a new trading level, which would be higher. Futures may pull back and wait for cash but shouldn’t break sharply. Maybe good selloffs followed by rallies. Finally, the typical futures trade. Here, futures drop at least 61% back, often in a quick second.

My first thought is that the reduction in production is noticeable when demand picks up and then fades into the background as the market slows. We have a good handle on the industry’s inventory capacity. Without a logistics issue, capacity will always put a top in the market. Today’s question is whether we should remain confident in the numbers when supply is limited. The trade is content to stay the course. No one has seen any demand creep yet. This run is only a shot over the bow.

A critical factor in this industry is interest rates. Most haven’t noticed, but since the Fed cut on September 18th, the 30-year mortgage rate has risen by 80 bps. Going into 2025, the builders will negotiate the marketplace at a 6 to 7% rate. The Fed is looking for a 3.5 to 4% nominal rate, up from 2%. That will keep the 30-year locked above 6%. I go back to my “check the boxes” strategy. The multifamily guys will find a way to make the higher rates work. There is a ton of money in this sector that likes condos and apartments. They don’t like to “divest”. They value this sector. Our multifamily guys should look for an uptick next year in bidding. I’m not sure SYP isn’t already signaling things are getting better there.

Again, this is a multifaceted industry. The financial drivers go well beyond the mills and distributors.

Technical:

Jan had a $41 run from last Friday’s lows to the highs this week. That’s big. The stochastics were the first indicator of a possible rally. The other oscillators followed. Last week, I commented that the outside spec trade would see lumber as a buy. I’m not sure how much they participated, but we saw a big push through a small hole. Coming into this week, the signal is to sell. With a January RSI of 82.77% and a lag to the rally, they will see weakness and room to the downside. My point is that the futures market is overbought. The cash market isn’t.

Note: the driver in this market is SYP. Follow it for the trend.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

19 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: This has turned into a strong upcycle in the cash and futures markets

Recap:

This has turned into a strong upcycle in the cash and futures markets. I thought the market would correct after 23 days up and a very weak starts report, but it didn’t. The long lag between buys left many short cash. Yes, those holes are filled, but the wood is also going out the door. The buy-side hasn’t formed its rhythm yet. The rail issue isn’t helping the equation, as everyone knows it won’t be a factor until it is. The market has spent a few years in this area. The reluctance to participate at value is confusing.

Let’s take a look at the 2023 and 2024 cycles. In 23, the market traded flat, but with a good takeaway. It started near its lows and drifted marginally higher by year-end. In 2024 it was
“load the boat” coming into the year only to see the pace of outtake slowing. Today, we are seeing that pace pick up, similar to 2023. If the pace stays steady, there is a chance for a continued drag higher.

Technical:

The elephant in the room is the obvious. September futures are up $82 from their lows four weeks ago and $119 from July’s settlement. The fundamental question is whether Sept has returned to normal or is $40 too expensive. The technical question is whether Sept is overbought. On the fundamental side, the creep higher in the cash market keeps the higher futures levels in check. A good correction in futures could put them at a discount?? The technical picture is somewhat confusing up here. It lacks the momentum to go higher but will not enter into the overbought condition. There is more room for the upside. The issue with a pullback is this lack of momentum could stall the market out. Scale-up hedging is still the strategy. This type of market stops on a dime giving you little chance to hedge. If you wait till 560 or 580 you may miss it.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

12 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: FUTURES ARE BACK

Recap:

Futures are back. We have to say they are back when they can break $20 and then rally $25 in a matter of hours. This market is also so fragile that anything spooks it. Friday’s turnaround confirmed most opinions of the futures side of the market. The tailwinds caught up. The next read is how a perceived undersupplied market trade. Supply-driven markets are very volatile. We saw that on Wednesday and Thursday as futures retreated near $500. This week, I’m going to dig down into the fundamentals, the futures makeup, and the general psyche that’s pushing the market.

We know the trade came into 2024 bullish. Even by April, it was still a 50/50 mix. By June 1st. the buy-side of the industry had become fully entrenched. They were going to run inventories at a highly tight JIT model regardless of their business. This lack of exposure in the marketplace when the dynamics are moving quickly to a supply-driven market puts a floor in. In this industry, trading decisions are made over weeks and months while the market turns are in minutes. If a supply issue is built, this makeup will cause volatility. Another change was around June 1st.  The reappearance of traders in the futures market, which had been gone for years, was very telling. a few never even traded the new contract. They tend to buy futures instead of cash when prices are very low. They don’t look at the premium. They are buying the market to protect against upside risk. This isn’t forward sales. It is hedging.

I want to make a quick point about the Fed. When Powell announced the possibility of the Fed having to increase rates, it had an immediate effect on us. All he had to do was announce the possibility of it occurring to shift the builder’s plans. Last week’s announcement of the possible half-point cut in September could motivate some builders. The reason why he is cutting could be disastrous to this sector. If the possibility of high unemployment is the reason, then this will be short-lived, but for now, there is excitement.

The futures trade is the primary driver of this market. I know it is supply and demand, but futures can push cash $100 higher or lower with little to no reason. There is a lot of confusion about who exactly the drivers are, so I will break it down. In 2024, the industry has been carrying a very long future position in an environment that isn’t conducive to forward pricing. I like to call these traders the “Texas Hedgers.” They are long cash and futures. That speculative position and upward bias added to the six-month selloff. The industry shorts tend to only position against a cash position. In most cases, they do not speculate. We have also seen in 2024 a very large holding of shorts by the funds. There is no question that the funds drive the futures market. They drive all markets. The problem with the funds is that they aren’t a barometer for the trend or price of the lumber cash market. They have numerous reasons to be in markets, from the US dollar to managing a long position in one market with a short position in another. What is a benefit to us is that it creates movement to where the futures price works for your overall risk management plan. A good example is today. No one will hedge at $500, leaving a large swatch of exposure. The industry hopes that the funds will run the market higher to bring hedging back into play. The final category is all others, where most of us fall. A group of these trades is very astute to the market. While having been very quiet over the past few years, these traders recognize a possible tipping point in futures and try to push the market through it. They set off panic. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have been trying to get some upside panic on this recent move. I left the algorithm trade out because they do not carry a position. Their design is to be flat at the end of the day. They are great for intraday turmoil. They also search for tipping points.

To sum up, this industry’s market cap has shrunk. The available profit dollars are limited, so a $10 swing can shift you from a profit to a loss. This makes the outside dynamics more critical now than ever. We are a “data desert.” The indicators for direction out of the futures are needed to determine the makeup and cash buying cycles. Both need to be front and center in any planning.

Technical:

It was pretty ugly, but the futures finally broke through the resistance area of $518.00. This has created some upside momentum. Fridays $528 high will likely force more shorts to cover based on the technicals. As I said before, the market is set up to liquidate naturally with higher trading levels above $520. It has no relationship to the cash market at this point. It is all numbers driven down here. The high in futures only a few months ago was $563. That price isn’t high, given the pile of shutdowns since then. That price is high in relationship to July’s expiration.
Upside resistance has a threefold dynamic. The $100 rally from July’s low could bring the funds back to look at November. It also creates better hedging scenarios. Finally, given the state of the buy-side psyche, the 80/20 rule applies here. That is, 80% of the industry will not be paying the higher prices.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

05 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The main takeaway is that the dynamics of the last six months have changed

Recap:

The main takeaway is that the dynamics of the last six months have changed. The first change is that the commodity funds are no longer sellers and are liquidating. If that stays true, the futures market will have no sellers. The next is that both cash and futures have moved higher despite what looks to be a stock market meltdown and other economic woes. Our market tends to ignore news as the trend changes. This market is forward-thinking. The plans coming into the year were to build as rates were lowered and traffic picked up. Going into the 3rd. quarter, some of that business is now on the books, as is the yearend homebuilders surge. This is not a bunch, but it changes the current pipeline structure. That brings us to the third change. Production has been cut. The amount is minimal with zero demand, but it will mean something if things pick up. Just because inventories are kept so low is enough to force prices higher. Add to that the mill’s song and dance, and you can’t find a stick. That’s what I love about this business. Two weeks ago, your mill guy was begging for an offer, and soon, they will be telling you to go scratch.

The market has less production going into the fall. We also see better demand as the year’s first half has pulled some building forward. Without funds, prices will be pushed higher.

What has changed? When things get tighter, the lack of funds for selling changes the market dynamics. What hasn’t changed is the fact that housing will stagnate in the near future. You have this major economic headwind versus a much-needed buy. The technical read calls for higher levels, and the buy round should get us there. While we may look good for a while, the fundamentals will creep back in. I don’t think we need to go back to $308 cash anymore.

Technical:

I have talked about the noise above the market for months now. Last week’s action tells me the market can grind through those areas. The market is nearing a pivotal area around 518. Whatever the reason, a push that high indicates there is more momentum behind this. I like to say if the market goes to $520, it will go to $540. Points become meaningless if momentum takes over.
 
Next week what to watch:
How quickly will the futures market get to 518.00? Or does it fail?
How does the fund roll go when the actual market is better?

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

22 Jul 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: To keep it simple the sharp selloff on Monday rattled some cages and woke up a marketplace

Recap:

To keep it simple the sharp selloff on Monday rattled some cages and woke up a marketplace. All of a sudden, the trade looked up and saw low inventories with a cash market very close to $300. The round of cash was enough to bring in short covering in futures. To sum it up we finally are getting a cash buy. The question now is it one of the new 2024 tepid buys or a good old fashion fill in?

Early in the year, we expected shutdowns, fires, or rail to hold prices up. Most of those factors are still here. As a matter of fact, we are in the thick of the shutdowns, so that can become a feature. Nothing has changed with demand. We had run inventories to very low levels with fall coming soon. The market bottomed out in cash, and if it is going to go much higher, the futures have to become the driver.

Some could buy early in the week and sell most of it by Friday. The next buy will be higher, so they have to decide on building inventory. With the futures at such a premium, there is a way to protect it, but for now, buyers want to book a few profitable cars, noting that it’s been a few months. Market psychology always has the last word.

A higher futures trade will bring in more cash buying. The focus from here will be on the ability to manage the risk of the next cash buy. I bet everyone is putting the futures app back on their phones this weekend.

Technical:

The futures offer two major focal points. The first is a bottoming of the market with real upside potential. I’ll add to that in a moment. The other fact is that July futures expired at 418.50. With all the headwinds facing the economy and this industry, you can’t call it a low. But today, we are.

I have talked about the noise above the market for months now. Last week’s action tells me that the market can grind through those areas. The problem with the grind is that you have to deal with more fund selling each day. The data shows that it would take a trade over $518 to slow or stop that. A close over it gains momentum to the $528 area. The next level is $550. I’m not calling for anything like that, but if you are short and sitting on your hands, pay attention.

The gap left Tuesday adds a little “generative” confidence to futures. This rally was needed. It’s healthy and should stay intact until the funds say that’s enough.

15 Jul 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Last week, many “new-news” were created

Recap:

Last week, many “new-news” were created. There were new lows in futures, new lows in cash, new highs in industry longs, and the list goes on. Market participants have turned their ire or blame toward Southern Yellow Pine. The data isn’t in line with such a bearish market. The data lag has kept us all on a constant watch for the bounce. I’m beginning to wonder if that bounce is a unicorn. As we clean up July next week and traders get back to work, we should expect some corrections.

The facts are most have reduced inventories. It has been a while since there has been a good buy round. This is not the time of year for that, but since it’s been so long, it may come early. There are shutdowns going on. It does not move the needle but will add up at some point. If there is going to be an imbalance, we should see futures acting more friendly. After hitting new lows last week, maybe not going down is all we can muster to define friendly. The sleeper is that business isn’t dead. It trades at a price. If that is a fill-in business, then the market can get friendly. If it is forward buying for the fall, then it is over.

Technical:

September has a trendline that speaks volumes. In place since March, it has become a tremendous resistance line. Close over it this time, and maybe we have something. That said, treat it like major resistance until it isn’t. It comes in at 493.80.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

01 Jul 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The best word to describe last week’s trade was erosion

Recap:

The best word to describe last week’s trade was erosion: erosion in value, erosion in the housing sector, and finally, erosion in the economy. The industry waits for a truckload of sand to show up as the beach slips into the ocean. We searched for green shoots to pop up all week, only to see lower cash prices. One fact remains: it is the lumber market, and rallies are created out of nothing. Last week’s trade indicates the market isn’t ready. Let’s look at a few factors which could already be in play or are forming.

The key factor is the extreme lag of shutdown effects on the market. It indicates a steeper decline in construction than the data shows. With inventory management at a steady pace, sufficient supply is sitting in the pipeline. Last week’s sideways trade was a good indicator. Continued pressure would point to eroding construction.

As housing goes, so goes the economy. Remember that quote? If you have been around long enough, you have seen it occur a few times. This is not a doom-and-gloom forecast. What has happened here is that the industry was geared up for lower rates and didn’t get them. Because of that, today, we see a 9.3-month supply of new homes and confusion about when or if a cut will happen. This doubt will slow construction planning. It won’t slow the plans in place. We can’t underestimate the fall building cycle, but we also can’t underestimate the economic psychology.

If you did a SWOT analysis of our industry, the biggest threat is unemployment. That will kill an already teetering sector. My worry here is that most industries are over-hired. Today, you have a 3-person team doing the work for 2 and a manager who won’t let anyone go. As we have seen in the past, there will be a day when management tells one person to stay and lets the other two go. Today, it is using more to get less. Tomorrow, it will be using less to get more. You don’t have to slow the economy to see this shift. That’s a threat today to housing.

This industry doesn’t have many tailwinds to rely on. China’s weakness continues. Euro and bug kill keep the supply coming despite prices. The fact that Canada shipments increased in the first few months doesn’t help. And finally, our sticky 7%. Most of those reasons are why prices are hitting new lows today. If they remain in place, the market will be forced lower. One constant and a positive is the lumber buyers’ pattern. It’s all in or all out. Not even the algo can figure them out. This last buy round was very guarded, with limited purchases. Most still lost money. It will take time to generate another buy. There is construction every day. It may be less, but it is still going on.

Technical:

The 200-month moving average is 398.47. This has been a support line for the market for many years. It tends to sit very close to breakeven for the mills. It has turned up slightly over the last 10 years, but so has breakeven. I saw in the WSJ an article where the CEO of Weyerhaeuser was quoted as saying producers can’t stay in the red for long. The conversation in the C-suites has changed from so much cash to an all-out panic. When the pig farmers could no longer feed all their pigs it had to cull the herd. Look for a little of that in labor and lumber. FYI: I believe the last time Wall Street wrote an article on lumber; we were at about $1700. from and saw

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

10 Jun 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE GREAT LONG LIQUIDATION

Recap:

The great long liquidation. Between Monday and Tuesday, it looked as if the industry longs blew out. That was after a previous week of light liquidation. This blowout pushed July’s futures to a low of 484, which is at par with the cash market. That was a structural change to the market dynamics and should be noted for the future. By Thursday, July was back to a $30 premium and showing some confidence. So, in the short run, we are considering trading par too cheap at a $30 premium normal, and a $50 premium as a gift.

We are entering the summer months with some tough headwinds. We were told “rates higher for longer” 18 months ago. They were right. Any rate relief in housing isn’t coming soon. The other is the sharper-than-expected drop in multifamily projects in the regions that have led the way. Some are as high as 40%. As a trader, this is a lot to digest, but it looks like the market has already started.

RDFTV is a farmer’s channel. On Friday, they interviewed a SYP tree farm owner. He said SYP farmers never lose money. He must not have gotten the memo on the falloff of the multi-sector.

The cash market looks to have three zones of value today. The first is the current zone of $335 to $450. The market has spent a lot of time down here as it digests the less demand and good supply scenario we are in. The next is $451 to $500. And the last is $501 to $600 or shall we say the happy days are here again zone. It has bounced back and forth between zones 1 and 2 since the end of covid. It is not getting any help from the fundamentals to change that.

Technical:

The value areas and technical points are becoming a better road map than in the past. The two featured points today are the 200-day moving average at 562.50 and the value area at 440.00. That correlates well with the cash zone. The support area is the low of 484.00, and resistance is the value area of 520.00. A break of either could cause a nice little run.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

29 Apr 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: IT WAS A BETTER WEEK FOR TRADING

Recap:

It was a better week for trading. The market seemed to drift into a bottoming formation, followed by a couple of good spike-up days and a new low for the move. We can call it a bottoming action, supportive, new low, or dead cat bounce. I heard all of them. What it did was cause the trade to be bullish one day and bearish the next. While the trade was highly volatile, the net for the week was only a $8 gain. What was different last week was that, for the first time, we had a few green shoots appear. From wholesalers covering shorts to mills holding prices, there was a better tone. We head into next week with a much more positive attitude.

While attitudes are better, most are very cautious. Prices have fallen far more than expected. Taking the cash market back into the $3’s should not have happened with all the shutdowns etc. The trade is now searching for the reason. Is there a more significant issue lurking out there? It’s hard to pin it on the market going too high, so it needed to go lower theory. I saw fear in the faces of some traders. They couldn’t sell a stick. We can’t blame the algo for that.

The industry is exiting shorts and getting long. Seeing them in a good flow instead of a battle is nice. This last trade report had short funds almost doubling their position while the long funds continued to exit. This report cuts off on Tuesday. I bet it shows the long fund numbers reversed and going higher on the next report. The trade at the end of the week had a fund tone to it.

Technical:

It’s harder to pull any green shoots out of the tech read, except it closed higher on Friday. This indicates that the battle down here isn’t over. The problem for the shorts is that the new volatility rallied futures $15 in a few trades. Your position can be upside down in a few minutes, not sessions. To summarize, the tech read calls for an ABC correction up, not a V bottom. The jury is still out.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.