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11 Nov 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: New highs going into NAWLA?

Recap:

New highs going into NAWLA? Now that is different. I think it also shows how this market has been turning early for months now. This lack of supply followed by a lack of demand cycle has kept the buy side off balance. The data indicates that the demand pattern, while not busy, is coming in more often. Buyers are used to a longer lag between buys so are not ready for the next one so soon. There is also an effect on the production side as they drop prices more aggressively looking for a longer lag. I can see the mills taking a more wait and see approach as the buy side stays in. This is all predicated on a bottom for this to be correct.

I made a call for $600 in the July contract back in April. I was surprised on how long the mills would lose money. The windfall from the last few years certainly allowed for some patience. They also have a good understanding of the cycles. This is one that has to play out. Profitability is getting close. My point is there is a lot of unspent capital out there. There is a lot of dry powdered out there. And the economy is good. Not bad for housing.

This is not going to be an easy ride. There just will be less overall pressure. As we speak, they are backing up the Queen Mary to Cape in Florida. The eastern guys have already turned it up. Supply increasing is the biggest headwind to the market. It is no longer rates. The trade is conditioned to back away at any sign of extra supply. When the wholesale community is in the middle there is this false sense of extra wood available. As I said, it’s not going to be and easy ride from here, but it is better. If the mills start to hedge they will keep the market tight.

Technical:

Going back to what was said above, the market this time did not correlated to the norm. The July to Sept run up, followed by the October lows never materialized. This year the market slowed into September only to walk itself up. The technical picture had turned neutral from negative. That wasn’t enough to buy the market but indicated a change. My point is that all three turns in the technicals to become a trade may not work here. There are times where a lag skews the osculators. This was one. If that remains the case, it indicates some downside in front of us in futures, but just enough to get the tech pic neutral. It continues to lean towards hedging. That hasn’t changed.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

04 Nov 2024
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: It was a very healthy week for both cash and futures

Recap:

It was a very healthy week for both cash and futures. As a combination, it was the best week for price movement all year. The key was the market went higher on its own. There was no outside noise to push it. It was all demand driven. That leads us to three simple scenarios. The first is that the market is still underbought and will stay tight. This could be the case as the “off the market” mill is back in the game. A slow buy could drag the market higher since we’ve had a few years for the buy side to be engrained with less is more. The next scenario is that the market is searching for a new trading level, which would be higher. Futures may pull back and wait for cash but shouldn’t break sharply. Maybe good selloffs followed by rallies. Finally, the typical futures trade. Here, futures drop at least 61% back, often in a quick second.

My first thought is that the reduction in production is noticeable when demand picks up and then fades into the background as the market slows. We have a good handle on the industry’s inventory capacity. Without a logistics issue, capacity will always put a top in the market. Today’s question is whether we should remain confident in the numbers when supply is limited. The trade is content to stay the course. No one has seen any demand creep yet. This run is only a shot over the bow.

A critical factor in this industry is interest rates. Most haven’t noticed, but since the Fed cut on September 18th, the 30-year mortgage rate has risen by 80 bps. Going into 2025, the builders will negotiate the marketplace at a 6 to 7% rate. The Fed is looking for a 3.5 to 4% nominal rate, up from 2%. That will keep the 30-year locked above 6%. I go back to my “check the boxes” strategy. The multifamily guys will find a way to make the higher rates work. There is a ton of money in this sector that likes condos and apartments. They don’t like to “divest”. They value this sector. Our multifamily guys should look for an uptick next year in bidding. I’m not sure SYP isn’t already signaling things are getting better there.

Again, this is a multifaceted industry. The financial drivers go well beyond the mills and distributors.

Technical:

Jan had a $41 run from last Friday’s lows to the highs this week. That’s big. The stochastics were the first indicator of a possible rally. The other oscillators followed. Last week, I commented that the outside spec trade would see lumber as a buy. I’m not sure how much they participated, but we saw a big push through a small hole. Coming into this week, the signal is to sell. With a January RSI of 82.77% and a lag to the rally, they will see weakness and room to the downside. My point is that the futures market is overbought. The cash market isn’t.

Note: the driver in this market is SYP. Follow it for the trend.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

28 Oct 2024
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Lumber is a very complicated commodity

Recap:

Lumber is a very complicated commodity with the most moving parts of any I have dealt with. That said, it is a commodity and commodities trade value. Lumber is only $20 either side of a trade and can’t get there. If you look at a weekly chart you’ll need a microscope to see the trading ranges for the last 5 weeks. Someone said last week that this market is coiling ready itself for a blowup. I said the same thing 12 months ago. I’m hoping he is closer to right than I was. My point is that the market is draining all the excesses caused by Covid a few ounces at a time. The shutdowns just aren’t showing up in a way that can cause a panic. It looks like more of the same.

A few recap points.

A mill reported a 3rd quarter loss last week. Let’s take a step back. Futures contracts are designed to protect the producer in a falling market. Mills presences will actually put a floor in prices. We have little mill participation today. I’m hoping they take a deeper look into the financial design of futures.

All week I heard complaints about certain items not being available. It is not a free-flowing cash market out there. Now, yes, there are some cheap and available items, but for a flat market things are getting tight. Unless it’s a basis trade, this is a tough place to sell futures. The funds are rolling and exiting. The report this week is up to Tuesday, so it missed the 3 strongest days for the week. It all comes down to momentum. Outside money creates momentum in the lumber futures market. Shutdowns, fires, and strikes all have a very limited effect. The algo and the funds are today’s day-to-day drivers. The lack of that push keeps us flat. Now, it may be defined as flat, but I wouldn’t be short.

Technically, we are married to trying to push to a new high in futures. Cash hasn’t recently allowed it but that too is moving up. In November the last high was 538.00. Today, its 200-day moving average sits at 554.07.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

14 Oct 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: There is malaise over almost every market out there

Recap:

There is malaise over almost every market out there, whether it is corn or equities. Lumber is no different. The futures market has traded between 538 and 515 for 14 straight sessions. There is no energy and no real direction. The lumber market is flat, as is housing. The upcoming election may be a factor, but even that has gone flat. Economic uncertainty has put us all back into the weeds. That is friendly. Lumber gets bought in the fall. The longer one waits, the higher it will go. Today, the lumber futures are not showing signs of going higher. It shows signs of fatigue at the higher levels. The premium gets no help from the cash market each time it is up. That creates fatigue and the continued cycle of tight highs and lows.

Patience is key as we navigate these market conditions. The upcoming start reports on Friday could be the trigger we’re waiting for. Remember, hibernating till spring only works for bears.

Technical:

The technical read has been challenging in a flat market. Today, there is a flag pattern channel with $500 as support and $539 as resistance. The rules for flag patterns tell us that a close over $539.00 calls for a run to $578.00. We have had patterns in the past that call for a higher trade. The problem is the market can’t close over those areas. Maybe we are closer on this one. In any case, it is a buy lower market.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

16 Sep 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: September futures settled at $20 under print, the first recorded discounted expiration in almost 12 months

Recap:

September futures settled at $20 under print, the first recorded discounted expiration in almost 12 months. Was it a one-off trade or a change in market dynamics? It’s too early to tell, but we must remember that it doesn’t necessarily indicate a bull or bear market, only a change. If it holds, it is a shift from basis trading strategies to forward pricing. I don’t expect to see much forward selling from the industry. They didn’t touch the basis, so why do forwards? I expect the industry to continue to trade extremely guarded through the end of the year. We saw an almost 30% reduction in the commercial short position after the Canfor announcement. That massive bail is a result of the guardedness of the trade. Most took hedges off above $520 and are naked under $500. Is this a dynamic shift or a fluke?

Production is getting cut. When will the supply cut be a factor? Someday, but not tomorrow? The struggle now is to continue to navigate a balanced marketplace. Can value be brought back into play in housing after a few rate cuts and increasing existing home supplies? We are starting that process based on the futures trade, but it could take another year. If you look back, in 2012, there was a fear of a fiber shortage that shot prices higher. It took five years to get our next spike to new highs in 2017. And finally, our covid 2021 debacle. My point is it takes years to create the undersupplied pocket. If we are there, our lows will be higher and highs sharply higher. Today, all the pressure is from the funds or the algo selling. That’s where the work needs to be done. The mills should start with the funds if they want to curtail something.

Technical:

The November contract low is 473.00. September’s low was 455, and July’s was 418. The market is already stair-stepping higher, making these lows significant points. As we head into October and the traditional lows, 473 is key. A trade under 473 indicates a more aggressive fund-selling program, knocking all fundamentals out of the equation.

The technical picture is negative for the short term. To change the trend, we need to reach an oversold condition. The problem with the RSI today is that it holds long-term bearish divergence. It remains high every time the market breaks. Walk that down into the low 20s, and the momentum can change. I could bring in almost every other oscillator and show the same results. The selloffs are not hurting the market.

The key upside point is 518. This area has been key for months and could be the top for now. The computers will target the low of 473. It could be a $10 market until the next announcement comes out.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

09 Sep 2024
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Last week’s trade showed just how much the headwinds are weighing on the market

Recap:

Last week’s trade showed just how much the headwinds are weighing on the market. Rates coming off are a given, but employment direction and costs aren’t. That leaves two reasons for the futures to rally. The first is the fill-in buy, which occurs every few months. The other is the “spook.” That is when another announcement comes out and spooks good shorts out. Lumber, unlike most other industries, has a quick reaction to news. We saw that early in the week with a mill announcement set off the short covering. Once that was finished, the algo/fund stepped back in to sell it off. There was an abundance of emotion in the market last week. It seems like the anxiety level is starting to rise.

The housing market is priced too high. Case/Shiller last week showed another gain in values—that’s 17 straight months. We are seeing inventories grow out there. The existing home inventories have been held low because of the rate spike. There is a growing pent-up sell lurking out there in the existing space. The inventory number could see a sharp bounce once the Fed cuts. That will push prices lower and cause a pickup in demand. This is important because a fluid housing market starts and ends in the existing home market.

The futures are behind the proverbial eight ball. The November contract is generally near value. The issue is the front-month expiring month. The spread trading is a good indication of the liquidation mode. The spread goes from -20 to -10 and then out to wherever. It is already at -29. The lack of industry participation in the big discount hurts the search for value. Commodity markets are efficient when value is recognized.

Technical:

The failure to create momentum last week was troublesome. This indicates a “more of the same” trade. We know rates are coming off. That is a major tailwind for us and should bring in support. September expires on Friday. It’s back to wait and see. In general, this market finds support faster than resistance.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

26 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: As much as we all want to discuss the rail issue, we should take a step back and look at the market

Recap:
As much as we all want to discuss the rail issue, we should take a step back and look at the market. The cash market is up $75 from reported lows in a few weeks. That strength has pulled futures higher and also narrowed the premium. Two weeks ago, there was an uptick in cash interest. This past week saw digestion. That is very efficient. Last week’s futures trade was anything but efficient. There were wide swings from rail news and algo selling. The roll held it up while the computer sold. The futures are signaling an ending cash buy round. That remains to be seen.

It looks like the Teamsters were blindsided by the Minister’s next-day order to return to work, so they decided to serve 72 hours’ notice and sue the Minister. Welcome to Chicago. This back and forth has drained some of the momentum/panic out of the situation. This could lead to another week of digestion on the cash side and more $20 moves back and forth in futures.

I’m not a fan of shorting a commodity priced below the cost of production. While the cash market has robustly rallied, most mills are still underwater. While waiting for the reduced supply equation to hit the market finally, we may have to suffer the testing of lows a few times. Lumber 101, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

Technical:

The momentum couldn’t carry futures to new highs last week. The market hit an artificial wall in the high 530’s. It’s considered artificial because of the aggressive selling shown by the industry over 540. That doesn’t top the market but shows the growing inventory lists. It’s interesting how moving averages on the chart and inventories tend to match up over time. A slow Monday will allow the algo to shove Sept under $500. They’ll take one more shot at forcing the spec longs out before the labor news heats up again. This week, it may be more prudent to play the news cycles than the technical points…

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

19 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: This has turned into a strong upcycle in the cash and futures markets

Recap:

This has turned into a strong upcycle in the cash and futures markets. I thought the market would correct after 23 days up and a very weak starts report, but it didn’t. The long lag between buys left many short cash. Yes, those holes are filled, but the wood is also going out the door. The buy-side hasn’t formed its rhythm yet. The rail issue isn’t helping the equation, as everyone knows it won’t be a factor until it is. The market has spent a few years in this area. The reluctance to participate at value is confusing.

Let’s take a look at the 2023 and 2024 cycles. In 23, the market traded flat, but with a good takeaway. It started near its lows and drifted marginally higher by year-end. In 2024 it was
“load the boat” coming into the year only to see the pace of outtake slowing. Today, we are seeing that pace pick up, similar to 2023. If the pace stays steady, there is a chance for a continued drag higher.

Technical:

The elephant in the room is the obvious. September futures are up $82 from their lows four weeks ago and $119 from July’s settlement. The fundamental question is whether Sept has returned to normal or is $40 too expensive. The technical question is whether Sept is overbought. On the fundamental side, the creep higher in the cash market keeps the higher futures levels in check. A good correction in futures could put them at a discount?? The technical picture is somewhat confusing up here. It lacks the momentum to go higher but will not enter into the overbought condition. There is more room for the upside. The issue with a pullback is this lack of momentum could stall the market out. Scale-up hedging is still the strategy. This type of market stops on a dime giving you little chance to hedge. If you wait till 560 or 580 you may miss it.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

12 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: FUTURES ARE BACK

Recap:

Futures are back. We have to say they are back when they can break $20 and then rally $25 in a matter of hours. This market is also so fragile that anything spooks it. Friday’s turnaround confirmed most opinions of the futures side of the market. The tailwinds caught up. The next read is how a perceived undersupplied market trade. Supply-driven markets are very volatile. We saw that on Wednesday and Thursday as futures retreated near $500. This week, I’m going to dig down into the fundamentals, the futures makeup, and the general psyche that’s pushing the market.

We know the trade came into 2024 bullish. Even by April, it was still a 50/50 mix. By June 1st. the buy-side of the industry had become fully entrenched. They were going to run inventories at a highly tight JIT model regardless of their business. This lack of exposure in the marketplace when the dynamics are moving quickly to a supply-driven market puts a floor in. In this industry, trading decisions are made over weeks and months while the market turns are in minutes. If a supply issue is built, this makeup will cause volatility. Another change was around June 1st.  The reappearance of traders in the futures market, which had been gone for years, was very telling. a few never even traded the new contract. They tend to buy futures instead of cash when prices are very low. They don’t look at the premium. They are buying the market to protect against upside risk. This isn’t forward sales. It is hedging.

I want to make a quick point about the Fed. When Powell announced the possibility of the Fed having to increase rates, it had an immediate effect on us. All he had to do was announce the possibility of it occurring to shift the builder’s plans. Last week’s announcement of the possible half-point cut in September could motivate some builders. The reason why he is cutting could be disastrous to this sector. If the possibility of high unemployment is the reason, then this will be short-lived, but for now, there is excitement.

The futures trade is the primary driver of this market. I know it is supply and demand, but futures can push cash $100 higher or lower with little to no reason. There is a lot of confusion about who exactly the drivers are, so I will break it down. In 2024, the industry has been carrying a very long future position in an environment that isn’t conducive to forward pricing. I like to call these traders the “Texas Hedgers.” They are long cash and futures. That speculative position and upward bias added to the six-month selloff. The industry shorts tend to only position against a cash position. In most cases, they do not speculate. We have also seen in 2024 a very large holding of shorts by the funds. There is no question that the funds drive the futures market. They drive all markets. The problem with the funds is that they aren’t a barometer for the trend or price of the lumber cash market. They have numerous reasons to be in markets, from the US dollar to managing a long position in one market with a short position in another. What is a benefit to us is that it creates movement to where the futures price works for your overall risk management plan. A good example is today. No one will hedge at $500, leaving a large swatch of exposure. The industry hopes that the funds will run the market higher to bring hedging back into play. The final category is all others, where most of us fall. A group of these trades is very astute to the market. While having been very quiet over the past few years, these traders recognize a possible tipping point in futures and try to push the market through it. They set off panic. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have been trying to get some upside panic on this recent move. I left the algorithm trade out because they do not carry a position. Their design is to be flat at the end of the day. They are great for intraday turmoil. They also search for tipping points.

To sum up, this industry’s market cap has shrunk. The available profit dollars are limited, so a $10 swing can shift you from a profit to a loss. This makes the outside dynamics more critical now than ever. We are a “data desert.” The indicators for direction out of the futures are needed to determine the makeup and cash buying cycles. Both need to be front and center in any planning.

Technical:

It was pretty ugly, but the futures finally broke through the resistance area of $518.00. This has created some upside momentum. Fridays $528 high will likely force more shorts to cover based on the technicals. As I said before, the market is set up to liquidate naturally with higher trading levels above $520. It has no relationship to the cash market at this point. It is all numbers driven down here. The high in futures only a few months ago was $563. That price isn’t high, given the pile of shutdowns since then. That price is high in relationship to July’s expiration.
Upside resistance has a threefold dynamic. The $100 rally from July’s low could bring the funds back to look at November. It also creates better hedging scenarios. Finally, given the state of the buy-side psyche, the 80/20 rule applies here. That is, 80% of the industry will not be paying the higher prices.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

05 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The main takeaway is that the dynamics of the last six months have changed

Recap:

The main takeaway is that the dynamics of the last six months have changed. The first change is that the commodity funds are no longer sellers and are liquidating. If that stays true, the futures market will have no sellers. The next is that both cash and futures have moved higher despite what looks to be a stock market meltdown and other economic woes. Our market tends to ignore news as the trend changes. This market is forward-thinking. The plans coming into the year were to build as rates were lowered and traffic picked up. Going into the 3rd. quarter, some of that business is now on the books, as is the yearend homebuilders surge. This is not a bunch, but it changes the current pipeline structure. That brings us to the third change. Production has been cut. The amount is minimal with zero demand, but it will mean something if things pick up. Just because inventories are kept so low is enough to force prices higher. Add to that the mill’s song and dance, and you can’t find a stick. That’s what I love about this business. Two weeks ago, your mill guy was begging for an offer, and soon, they will be telling you to go scratch.

The market has less production going into the fall. We also see better demand as the year’s first half has pulled some building forward. Without funds, prices will be pushed higher.

What has changed? When things get tighter, the lack of funds for selling changes the market dynamics. What hasn’t changed is the fact that housing will stagnate in the near future. You have this major economic headwind versus a much-needed buy. The technical read calls for higher levels, and the buy round should get us there. While we may look good for a while, the fundamentals will creep back in. I don’t think we need to go back to $308 cash anymore.

Technical:

I have talked about the noise above the market for months now. Last week’s action tells me the market can grind through those areas. The market is nearing a pivotal area around 518. Whatever the reason, a push that high indicates there is more momentum behind this. I like to say if the market goes to $520, it will go to $540. Points become meaningless if momentum takes over.
 
Next week what to watch:
How quickly will the futures market get to 518.00? Or does it fail?
How does the fund roll go when the actual market is better?

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.