RCM Ag Services

Category: Education

13 Jul 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: September finished the week up $11

This Week:

The September finished the week up $11. It felt a whole lot better than only 11 bucks. This is a supply-driven market rally, and with no layups, the industry can’t trade. It is forcing them to pay up each time. The mills are going along for the ride. If this type of market stays in place—and there is no reason it doesn’t—all will be forced to relish making 3% on a car…..

More of the same.

The spread traded into a plus 1.10 before reversing and resuming the expiration selloff. With futures trading in a slight uptrend, the front month held value for longer. That value tends to erode getting closer to expiration as the focus is on liquidation, while the second month is normally firm. When measuring trends, a change in the spread’s behavior is the first indication of a change in the trade. Put the spread trading over, and we could start to look for much higher numbers.

We are not there yet.

And finally,

I challenge the SYP producers to sell 5 cars at $500 in both September and in November. This is a profitable level for most mills. It makes no sense that the producers aren’t locking in this gift. Georgia has a better chance to beat the Tide then pine staying this high.

The technical read is very interesting.

The futures market has been choppy for 2 years now. In 2026, the trend has been higher highs and higher lows. While it looks like a sideways trade, there is an underlying uptrend. The weekly channel points are 673.50 and 573.90. On Thursday, September takes over with 673.50 as the upside objective. The longer-term read confirms much of our short-term points. 650.00 is a momentum area, as is 609.00. The main takeaway is that the channel is up. The positive momentum is weighted at 30% above 650.00, while the negative momentum is weighted at nearly 60% below 609.00. That indicates that a hedging program should be in place for your inventory. Let’s face it—if you started to hedge already, you are only offsides a few dollars. A rounding error in the grand scheme of things.

July has 875 left open. Historically that is about 97 cars a day. Pretty normal.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

13 Jul 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 26 – JULY 10

Corn spent the first half of this stretch grinding to fresh contract lows before finding its footing over the past week, catching a bid on a firming weather-risk premium heading into pollination. The June 30th Acreage and Grain Stocks reports were largely a non-event, with planted acreage at 95.343 million acres, essentially unchanged from the March intentions despite widespread expectations for a cut, and harvested acreage pegged at 87.4 million, down 4% from last year. Friday’s report delivered the bigger surprise: USDA cut 2025/26 old-crop ending stocks 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion, 50 million below expectations, on stronger feed and residual use, while 2026/27 new-crop ending stocks were slashed 170 million bushels to 1.790 billion, a full 80 million below the average guess. Production held at 16.0 billion bushels on an unchanged 183 bu/ac yield, and the season-average farm price was left at $4.40. December corn has worked back into the $4.60s on the tighter stocks numbers and improving Chinese demand optics, though the weather forecast into pollination remains the market’s next major swing factor.

Via Barchart

Soybeans got a mixed signal from the June 30th reports: planted acreage came in at 85.365 million, up 5% from last year and above both the March estimate (84.7 million) and the pre-report trade guess, while June 1 stocks of 1.06 billion bushels, up 5% year-over-year, also landed above expectations, a modestly bearish combination that limited November futures to just a nickel move on report day. The real driver since has been China. After the Commerce Ministry confirmed it would roll back its reciprocal tariff on U.S. ag goods (matched by a cut to the U.S. fentanyl-related tariff), actual purchases followed in short order: a 17.3-million-bushel private sale, another 9.7 million bushels ahead of the WASDE, and Chinese state trader Cofco booking at least six cargoes for September/October shipment. That buying pushed November beans to their best levels in about five weeks, briefly testing the $12 mark. Friday’s WASDE raised 2026/27 production to 4.475 billion bushels on higher harvested acres (yield held at 53 bu/ac), but stronger exports kept ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels, still 20 million below expectations, with the season-average price left at $11.40. With crush margins still historically strong, beans remain the more fundamentally supported half of the row-crop trade.

Via Barchart

Wheat’s acreage story leaned bullish out of the June 30th report: all-wheat plantings came in at 42.740 million acres, down 6% from last year and below both the March intentions (43.775 million) and the trade guess, with winter wheat acreage at 31.5 million, down 5%. June 1 stocks were up 8% year-over-year at 920 million bushels. Friday’s WASDE confirmed just how tight the new-crop winter wheat situation is: production was cut to 990 million bushels (HRW at 471 million, SRW at 287 million), while stronger spring wheat production (475 million) helped total all-wheat production land at 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970. 2026/27 ending stocks came in at 722 million bushels, and the season-average price held at $6.00.

The bigger story for wheat this week has been geopolitical rather than fundamental. Ukraine’s drone forces reportedly carried out 35 strikes against Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov over a 96-hour span, hitting roughly a quarter of all ships in the area, and there are now unconfirmed reports that Russia may close the Don-Azov Canal and the Kerch Strait in response. With 30-35% of Russian wheat exports moving through that corridor and Russia projected to account for more than 22% of global wheat exports this year, as much as 20 million metric tons of wheat could be bottled up if the closure holds. Chicago wheat spiked more than 2% on Friday to $6.33, its best level since late May, a fast-developing story worth watching closely into next week.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets closed out an outstanding first half of 2026 and haven’t slowed down since: the Dow gained 8.9% in H1, its best first half since 2021, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 9.6% and 12%, respectively, and the small-cap Russell 2000 posted its best first half since 1991 at nearly +22%. The Dow has continued notching fresh records since, closing above 53,000 for the first time on July 6th. AI-related names have been choppy, a sharp selloff in Micron, AMD, and Intel on valuation concerns gave way to a renewed rally after SK Hynix’s U.S. share offering came seven times oversubscribed. A soft June jobs report (57,000 vs. roughly 115,000 expected, though unemployment ticked down to 4.2%) and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, including fresh U.S. strikes on Iran July 8th, have added some volatility, but the VIX sitting near six-month lows below 16 shows just how much confidence remains in this market.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Crude oil has chopped higher since our last update as the Iran conflict flared back up. A weekend of tit-for-tat U.S.-Iran strikes in late June was followed by attacks on three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker, near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7th, prompting fresh U.S. strikes on Iran the next day. The Treasury also moved up its deadline on the temporary Iranian oil sanctions waiver, cutting it off July 17th instead of the original August 21st date. Brent has swung from below $70 back above $76, its highest since June 23rd, while WTI trades in the low $70s. The fertilizer and diesel cost relief that had been building since the spring ceasefire has stalled for now, worth keeping an eye on for fall input planning. Note: August crude oil (CLQ26) is approaching expiration later this month, so watch the roll to September when pricing off the front month.

Via Barchart

Other News

– Cotton acreage came in at 9.85 million acres in the June 30th report, up 6% from last year. The July WASDE followed by raising 2026/27 production 400,000 bales to 13.7 million on the larger acreage and a slightly higher yield, pushing ending stocks up 400,000 bales to 4.1 million (a 29.5% stocks-to-use ratio). The season-average price held steady at 73 cents/lb, and December cotton has ridden the broader commodity rally back above 78 cents.

– China’s follow-through on the May Trump-Xi summit commitments has been the clearest bright spot for beans, multiple confirmed purchases (17.3 million bushels, another 9.7 million bushels, and six cargoes booked by Cofco for Sept/Oct) suggest the $17 billion / 25 MMT annual ag purchase pledge is starting to show up in actual export data, not just headlines.

– Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov has put the Don-Azov Canal and Kerch Strait in question, a fast-developing story that could bottle up a meaningful chunk of Russian wheat exports if the closure holds.

– Renewed U.S. strikes on Iran (July 8th) following attacks on three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, plus an accelerated Treasury deadline on Iranian oil sanctions relief (now July 17th instead of August 21st), are keeping energy and fertilizer cost uncertainty alive heading into fall input season.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

29 Jun 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The correction finally showed up.

The correction finally showed up.

After weeks of a steady grind higher, July futures gave back $15, working off an overbought condition. Important for the near term—but the bigger story is positioning.

Both sides are heading for the exits.
The long industry is bailing. The short funds are covering.
Positioning has been cleaned up aggressively, and there’s likely more to go.

That’s where it gets interesting for the longer term.

Open interest is shifting in a meaningful way:

– Funds are now net long

– Industry is now net short

That’s not just noise—it tells you something.

The industry has bought enough wood. They no longer need the hedge. That phase is behind us.

At the same time, funds leaning long suggest they’re starting to position for higher ground.

We came into the year looking for this exact transition—and now it’s here.
The economics still point to more upside than downside.

I’m not calling a full fund policy shift yet…
But if that happens, it’s a game-changer.

Now what?

The market remains fragile to the upside—and that’s a supply story, not demand.

The demand looks steady. It’s not the problem.
Supply, on the other hand, continues to ebb and flow with timing and order files. That’s what’s driving the instability.

Because of that setup, the market is highly reactive.
Any outside positive influence—funds stepping in on the buy side, for example—and futures can move higher quickly.

But cut that off, and the tone changes just as fast.
A quiet, non-event summer likely drifts us back toward the lows.

That’s why we’ve been stuck in this flat, grinding range.
We did force the funds out—but it didn’t give us the sharply higher prices we expected.

And that matters.

It tells you the market isn’t weak—it’s just lacking a catalyst. Until something steps in to tip the balance, we’re stuck in a steady, sideways trade with a slight upward bias when flows show up.

Technical:

The RSI in July is 50.30%. The ROC was 2.50 to 1. July closed under the 200-day, and all the momentum indicators have turned down. This remains the B leg down.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

22 Jun 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures kept working higher last week

The grind higher continues.
Futures kept working higher last week, but you’re starting to feel the weight of an overbought market. Cash didn’t care—it pushed higher again. The pipeline is still a question mark, but what matters right now is simple:
there’s business getting done every day, and it’s getting done at higher levels.

Mills deserve some credit here. They cleared out excess a few weeks back ahead of this buy wave, and now they’re sitting in a position of control. Files are in good shape, and because of that: A futures pullback doesn’t ripple into cash. Not right now. It’s that tight.

Under the surface, positioning:

– Funds are buying back shorts—but not nearly at the pace of industry selling

– Result: open interest is falling off hard

That matters.

At this rate, the industry is on track to not be hedged.
That’s not a small shift—it changes how this market behaves.

And here’s the miss:

The market never got the volatility in cash that people expected.
No air pockets, no panic resets—just a steady tightening and grind. Now, keep draining open interest—another ~1,000 contracts—and you likely start to see it: Volatility comes back. Not because of weakness, but because the market loses participation and depth.
Less hedging, thinner structure → faster, sharper moves both ways.

Bottom line:

– Cash is in control and not fragile

– Industry is exiting cleanly without damage

– Open interest collapse is the real story

 

One more thing worth noting:

As of this writing, the RSI in the CA$ is sitting at ~7%. That’s not just oversold—that’s extreme. About as washed out as it gets, outside of the negative crude episode.

So, what is it?

Is the Canadian economy really that weak? Or is this just a currency trade?

Hard to argue it’s purely macro deterioration at that level. This feels more like:

– Positioning stretched to one side

– USD strength / CAD weakness feeding the move

– Flows dominating fundamentals in the short term

When you get readings this extreme, it’s usually not about “fair value”—it’s about imbalance.

 

Technical:

Technically, this has largely done the work.

Strip out the 86.70 July RSI and the read turns constructive.
We cleared the 61% retrace at 621.20 and held—momentum confirmed. What next?

Setup:

– 80/20 now → 90/10 next week

– Move is mature, but not dead

Positioning:

– Short risk is fading

– Don’t lift hedges—scale them, take profit

– Re-hedging on the short side is required

Cycle hasn’t changed:

Too much wood to not enough and then too much again

Bottom line:

Distributors got saved.
Don’t give it back.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

12 Jun 2026
Agriculture, Cattle, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 29 – JUNE 12

Corn has been under persistent pressure since Memorial Day weekend, with funds aggressively liquidating long positions built up over the spring. Managed Money has sold hard across the corn market going on the last 3 weeks, while the pace has slowed, they could continue selling if they want. The primary catalyst has been a combination of favorable planting weather, excellent crop establishment across the corn belt, and a crude oil market that has been retreating as Iran peace talks progressed. The June WASDE brought few surprises on corn. USDA described the 2026/27 corn outlook as “virtually unchanged” from May, with ending stocks coming in at 1.942 billion bushels and the season-average farm price forecast held at $4.40 per bushel. Old-crop 2025/26 ending stocks ticked up slightly to 2.145 billion bushels on a modest increase in imports, keeping carry extremely comfortable. The one positive was exports, but it was not enough to keep corn up close to $5. 96% of corn has been planted with a 67% good/excellent rating to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been caught in the same fund liquidation wave as corn, though they’ve shown more resilience given the tighter fundamental backdrop established in the May WASDE Report. July beans settled near $11.15 heading into the June 11th report. The soybean complex did find a brief bounce mid-period on continued strong crush margins and some renewed optimism around a potential Trump-Xi bilateral trade framework, but it didn’t hold. Planting pace has been exceptional, with 92% of beans in the ground and South American supply estimates remain large, with USDA maintaining Brazil’s 2025/26 crop and making only minor tweaks globally.

Via Barchart

Wheat has been the most volatile market of the period, but not in the direction bulls had hoped. After touching multi-year highs in mid-May on the back of the historically small U.S. winter wheat crop, both Chicago SRW and KC HRW futures have been in a steady slide. July SRW dropped from around $6.36 to the $5.86 area during the period before attempting a bounce, while July KC HRW fell from the mid-$6.70s to the low $6.30s. The catalyst for the pullback was a combination of timely rains arriving in Kansas and Nebraska late in May, some improvement in crop conditions relative to the worst-case scenarios, and funds taking profits after an extended rally.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have continued an impressive run with volatility recently and profit taking in some of the high flyers leading to a few heavily lower days. With inflation still a worry many investors believe that we are likely to see a rate HIKE before the end of the year rather than another cut.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Crude oil has been the dominant macro variable across all markets and the primary driver of the grain complex selloff over the past two weeks. WTI has fallen sharply from its spring highs above $110 per barrel as Iran peace negotiations have progressed, at times with apparent momentum, though the path has remained anything but straight. The headline to end the week that there is an apparent Memorandum of Understanding to end the conflict in the Middle East took crude back below $85 to end the week.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The June 30th USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are the next major scheduled market events. Any meaningful deviation in final corn or soybean planted acres from the March Prospective Plantings survey will be a significant market mover across the complex.
  • The New World screwworm situation in Texas received its first mention in the WASDE narrative this month, a reminder that animal agriculture has its own emerging risks to monitor alongside the geopolitical backdrop.
  • Cotton has pulled back with the broader commodity complex as crude oil retreated, removing some of the energy-driven premium that had made natural fiber more attractive relative to synthetics. Producers should continue to evaluate hedging strategies to protect margins at still-profitable price levels.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

27 May 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices

Summary:

Steady outtake, steady demand, steady prices—that’s a recipe for a dull trade with thin margins.

Seasonally, May into early June is dead money. “Sell in May and go away” exists for a reason. But this year, the takeaway is just firm enough to keep everyone from stepping away entirely. Add in historically lower field inventories (possibly by design), and the market doesn’t have the cushion to relax.

Right now, the industry is playing prevent defense—always on the field, focused on not losing. That’s a tough way to operate in a commodity business, especially when costs are sticky and conviction is low.

 

Flip Side:

I think what most are missing is that there are inventory pockets—and they’re full. It’s not enough to supply the whole market, but it’s a real risk for the guys sitting on it. And right now, there’s no appetite to hedge any of it.

In a market with no clear direction, that’s a problem. Everyone needs to stay disciplined—we’ve seen how quickly this can turn into a bottomless pit over the past year. It doesn’t take much. Hedge 20–30%, give yourself some cover, and live with it.

Step back and nothing has really changed in three years. The guys who bought wood and consistently hedged made money on the futures side—that’s just fact.

I think the weakness is running out of gas… but I’ve said that before.

Starting back in June of 2023.

 

Technical:

Last week’s trade was a step back technically. It’s not a sell signal, but it did give back some hard-earned momentum. Most oscillators have rolled back to neutral-to-negative, and it’s going to take some work to turn those higher again. The fact one stayed positive since mid-April just reinforces how sideways this market really is.

Levels to watch:
July futures need a close over 603.50—the recent spike high—to confirm things are tightening underneath the surface.

On the downside, there’s real air between 580 and 560. That zone keeps catching volume month after month, with a few thousand contracts likely changing hands there since January. It’s become a magnet.

Markets tend to build a base in areas like that… and eventually move higher from them.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

27 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week

Recap:

The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week. That said, it made a new contract low and then rallied. We saw that pattern a week earlier—and frankly, we’ve seen some version of it for nearly two years now. Rallies continue to lack momentum, fail quickly, and ultimately find themselves testing new lows.

A technician put it best last week: these trends are neither bullish nor bearish—they’re bullshit. There’s no trend, no follow‑through, and no conviction.

The broader economic backdrop for housing remains decisively neutral, and neutral markets have a nasty habit of killing their own rallies without outside help. That’s exactly where we sit today.

So, let’s look at a few housing headlines for more color.

Housing Headlines 

• Existing home sales remain sluggish.
March existing‑home sales fell 3.6% month‑over‑month to an annualized pace just under 4.0 million units, the weakest March pace since 2009. Sales declined in all four regions, underscoring just how little organic momentum exists in the market. [markets.bu…nsider.com]

Existing home sales are projected to stay in line with 23-24 and 25. Without a rate cut expect slow sales and low inventories.

 The macro effect:

“This has caused multifamily executives to lower their expectations for total 2026 multifamily sales volume and starts.”

• First‑time buyers are effectively sidelined.
First‑time buyers accounted for only 21% of transactions, a record low and well under the historical norm near 40%. The market is increasingly split between equity‑rich owners and would‑be entrants who simply can’t make the math work. [crosscount…rtgage.com] Can’t make it work…. nice.

From NAR, first time home buyers fell to a record low. They made up only 21%. That group was always in the high 30 percentile.

• Inventory is improving—but not enough to matter .
Active listings are rising year over year, and months’ supply has crept above four months, technically closer to “balanced.” But inventory is still well below pre‑pandemic norms, offering just enough supply to cap prices—not enough to stimulate volume. [mortgagetech.ice.com]

• Prices refuse to break—only flatten.
Despite weaker sales, median prices continue to grind higher on a year‑over‑year basis, driven by limited supply and locked‑in owners. Zillow expects roughly flat price appreciation in 2026, reinforcing the idea of a capped, sideways market rather than a corrective one. [zillow.com]

Builders I work with are staying on course and keeping production at the planned 2026 amount. “Head down and grind ahead” seemed to be the common theme.

• Mortgage rates remain a headwind, not a catalyst.
Rates dipped briefly below 6% earlier this year, but volatility tied to macro uncertainty pushed them back toward the mid‑6% range. That swing was enough to choke off affordability gains but not enough to force capitulation selling. [cnbc.com]

To sum it up:

There’s nothing here that argues for sustained upside—and nothing ugly enough to force a structural reset. Housing is stuck in neutral, and lumber reflects that reality perfectly. Rallies fail because they’re supposed to. Weakness finds buyers because costs, supply, and discounts still matter.

Until affordability actually improves or demand meaningfully breaks—this remains a market that chops itself to death, one failed rally at a time. It bothers me every time we use the affordability excuse. The is more fundamental issues involved.

Technical:

The May contract has found support in the $570 area. The fact that there are EFP’s available this time has brought the buyers back to the futures market at a price. This hand to mouth environment tends to magnify deals. Today it is in futures.

The starts projection is for 1.38. Permits are 1.39.

The weekly wedge pattern keeps getting tighter. The breakout looks to be a few weeks from now. May expiration could be interesting.

20 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week

Recap:

Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week. Many are pointing to the Montreal gathering as the culprit, but it’s questionable whether any meaningful movement would have materialized regardless. May finished the week up $6, though total volume remained light throughout.

The only notable development came from the Commitment of Traders report, which showed another sizable jump in producer longs alongside a further increase in fund shorts. Overall, the best way to describe last week’s trade is simply uneventful.

The futures market managed to hold above a new low on this move, suggesting there is still underlying demand working its way through the pipeline. Given how firmly JIT buying is entrenched, that tension is always present, but today there appears to be a distinctly more spring‑like tone.

Much of the futures buying remains hedge‑related, with pending business waiting to surface. How and when that demand ultimately flows into the market is still uncertain. The key takeaway is that the marketplace continues to wrestle with supply concerns. Many remain uneasy that even a modest uptick in demand could quickly tighten conditions. For now, buyers are paying more than they’ve grown accustomed to.

Technical:

The reality of this trade is that for the past three years the market has needed an “event” to break it out of its narrow range and today is no different. There is still no data pointing to a meaningful pickup in demand. For futures to move materially higher, it would take a rally strong enough to trigger fund short covering.

With projected construction activity for Q2 and Q3 holding steady, there is little justification for a sharp selloff either. That said, if the algos or the funds lean back into the short side, prices could fall quickly. They don’t measure value — they simply sell.

The futures market saw a sharp selloff in February, followed by a solid recovery in March, though prices remained below the February highs. April is now showing signs of drifting back toward those February lows. As this illustrates, the market continues to trace a slow, uneven stair‑step lower. Historically, that type of pattern has been proven unreliable.

This may end up being a period where the cash market holds firm, while long futures hedges continue to take the brunt of the pressure.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

17 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 2 – 17

Corn spent the start of April grinding lower, posting a fourth consecutive weekly loss by April 10th as the April WASDE reinforced a burdensome supply narrative. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks essentially unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, and global stocks came in above trade expectations at 294.81 million metric tons. A two week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, announced April 7th, removed much of the war premium that had propped up prices since March, as easing Strait of Hormuz concerns pulled crude oil sharply lower and dragged corn along with it. July futures slid to a fresh four-week low near $4.40, completing a nearly 62% retracement from the March 9th highs. The past week saw stabilization and a modest recovery. Faster than expected planting progress, U.S. corn planting reached 5% completion as of April 13th, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, combined with firming eastern Corn Belt basis and Mexico securing a large forward purchase of 12.4 million bushels helped steady sentiment. The old crop market remains locked in a congestion zone between $4.45 and $4.55 on May futures, with the 200-day moving average serving as key support. Speculators have been trimming their long positions aggressively, as shown in the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders reports, leaving the market less vulnerable to a large liquidation event but also with less upside fuel until a fresh catalyst emerges as money allocators reposition to the equity markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have largely remained in a sideways grind, trading between $11.50 and $11.83 on July futures for most of the last 2 weeks. The April WASDE showed U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels with adjustments netting to zero, crush estimates raised while exports were trimmed by the same amount. The season-average price forecast was nudged 10 cents higher to $10.30 per bushel. Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 soybean production estimate again, this time to 6.582 billion bushels, keeping the global supply backdrop heavy and capping any sustained rallies. On the positive side, strong domestic crush margins, board crush pushing above $3 per bushel, have been the primary support story for the complex. NOPA March crush is expected to come in well above year-ago levels when reported. U.S. planting progress debuted at 6% complete as of April 13th, ahead of the 2% five-year average, with Mississippi and Tennessee leading at 39% and 36%, respectively. The market is waiting for a significant new headline to break out of the current range. Talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which were delayed amid the Iran conflict, remain a key watch item as any resumption of Chinese buying interest could quickly change the demand narrative for U.S. soybeans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has done better the last couple of weeks, with Kansas City HRW futures rallying on the back of deteriorating U.S. crop conditions and persistent drought in the Southern Plains. USDA’s April 14th crop progress report showed just 34% of the winter wheat crop rated good-to-excellent, down a full 13 percentage points from a year ago, with 32% of the crop rated poor or very poor. Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remained in severe to extreme drought, and the recent widespread rain systems have largely missed the driest areas. Concerns about the long-term fertilizer supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have added a structural premium, with funds holding a record long position in spring wheat and a growing net long in Kansas City HRW. July HRW futures jumped nearly 20 cents on April 14th alone, reaching their highest settlement since March 31st at $6.36. Chicago SRW July futures also pushed above $6.00. The market sold off modestly to end the week but held the bulk of its gains. Longer-range forecasts suggest late April could bring more favorable moisture to parts of the Plains, which could temper upside. For now, weather, drought maps, and the weekly crop condition ratings are the primary price drivers.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have moved from deep stress to new record highs over this two-week stretch, tracking the Iran ceasefire developments closely. When Trump announced the two-week pause in operations on April 7th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,325 points, its best single session since April 2025, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5% to 6,782. Through the balance of the period, stocks continued recovering as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a lasting peace deal, with the S&P 500 recouping all losses accumulated since the start of the conflict. The run to new highs has been impressive with the NASDAQ having a positive day for 14 straight days.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to be volatile over the past couple of weeks but the news of ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While the cease-fire does not mean the conflict is over, if good news continues to come out of Washington oil prices will fall. The ceasefire dynamics have already meaningfully reduced fertilizer cost fears and energy-linked inflation expectations.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton has been one of the most compelling commodity stories of the period, with July futures pushing to a nearly two-year high and new crop cotton reaching $0.80 in the Dec contract. The move has been supported by a combination of bullish factors: elevated crude oil prices increasing polyester production costs and driving synthetic fiber substitution back toward natural cotton, a weaker U.S. dollar, and persistent drought in key U.S. growing regions stretching from the Texas Panhandle westward. The USDA April WASDE raised global production by 900,000 bales while also lifting consumption by 560,000 bales, leaving the net balance slightly tightened.
  • USDA’s April WASDE raised the season-average farm price for wheat 5 cents to $5.00/bu, corn 5 cents to $4.15/bu, and soybeans 10 cents to $10.30/bu.
  • The Trump administration called out fertilizer giant Mosaic for idling two Brazilian plants, with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden publicly questioning the timing as global fertilizer supplies face war-related disruptions.
  • A new survey found that only 60% of U.S. corn farmers have secured their nitrogen needs for the 2026 crop year, a reflection of the input cost uncertainty created by the Iran conflict.
  • Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 total corn crop estimate to 139.6 MMT (5.5 billion bushels), maintaining a heavy Southern Hemisphere supply backdrop.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

02 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 20 – APRIL 2

Corn has remained supported but volatile following the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, which reinforced a tighter-than-expected balance sheet narrative. The USDA came out with 95.338 million acres, near the lower end of trade expectations, confirming earlier concerns that higher input costs, particularly fertilizer due to war in Iran, would limit corn expansion, while stocks data did not show burdensome supplies. This has helped underpin prices despite sluggish export demand and limited Chinese participation, keeping the market more focused on supply risk than demand weakness. Combined with continued strength in energy markets and inflation-driven fund interest, corn remains in a supportive environment, though the large speculative long position leaves it vulnerable to sharp downside if macro sentiment shifts.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled to find sustained strength even after the March 31st USDA reports, which confirmed expectations for increased U.S. acreage and relatively comfortable stocks levels. The larger planting outlook reinforces the idea of ample new crop supplies, especially when paired with ongoing pressure from South America’s record production. While periodic rallies have been driven by energy market spillover and inflation concerns, the lack of consistent export demand, particularly from China, and fading optimism around biofuel policy have kept the market defensive. Overall, the USDA data solidified a more bearish supply outlook, leaving soybeans reliant on external market strength rather than supportive fundamentals. Talks between president Trump and China’s president Xi will be watched under a microscope if they end up happening after already being delayed with the conflict in Iran continuing.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to dominate the macro landscape, with crude oil holding elevated and volatile levels as geopolitical tensions involving Iran persist and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The sustained strength in energy has amplified inflation concerns globally, driving investment flows into commodities and influencing planting decisions, input costs, and overall sentiment across agricultural markets.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have remained under pressure since late March, as the combination of higher energy prices and the inflationary implications highlighted in recent economic data have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The indexes continues to reflect a risk-off environment, with concerns centered on slowing economic growth, tighter margins from rising input costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing otherwise stable underlying economic conditions.

Via Barchart

Other News

– Cotton acres in the prospective plantings report were 9.64 million for 2026, a 4% increase from last year.

– All wheat acres from the report were 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

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