Lumber Markets Archives - Page 10 of 11

14 Mar 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: The Futures Market Is Under Pressure

The futures market was under pressure all week as a seasonal pause had hit the market; however, the push to buy cash has eased. The transportation issue hasn’t eased, but the buying has. That has led to more wood in the secondary’s hand, thus more wood available in the field. That amount isn’t much, and it is high priced.

The takeaway from last week is only when the push eases, so does cash flow to the middle of the market. Any time a buyer sees two offers available, they close the POs, which is what we are seeing again. This industry is more afraid of buying a car and the market falling than missing a cheap vehicle and paying up. There is a lot of inefficiencies built into the market today. Another is the fear of a margin call. This lack of structure will keep volatility around and the mills in high cotton.

There are two ways to look at the market today: by counting sticks and needs for tomorrow or taking a closer look at where we are at in the housing cycle. For the bigger players, this quarter is done, the second is close to being finished, and now the focus is on the third quarter and those needs.

Housing report and Early Projections

This week we have the housing report, and the early projections are for 1.7 starts and 1.85 permits. The critical number is always completions, but these are the trendsetters. Ongoing predictions are for the numbers to stay in this area and completions to have only a slight uptick. We can see the builders accepting these prices and guaranteeing the product is key, not price.

The market experienced it last May with an uptick in forward pricing in the $1,200 range. That turned out not to be a great level to buy, but the push back from it was minor, and they were locking in the product. This year we’d expect the opposite with less forward sales. The industry will play for the break this time around, limiting the downside and extending the next rally.

Let’s Get Technical:

The technical read is negative. There is no easy way to say it. For the first time in months, the market has all signals pointing lower. If there isn’t buying on the break, the downside objective will increase, and it won’t get as low as most expect.

Another way to look at it is how the market reacts to the news. The added supply has pushed futures lower at a very slow pace turning the momentum indicators only after many down days. On the flip side, any good news spikes the market up.

We’d suspect the algo programmer is adding a selling layer, and the long fund is adding stops. Let’s face it. They are the drivers of our market and thus are the guiding factor for starts and stops. We see in the overall market that the buyer short cash because of jobs. The key to this move is to buy on the way down or are forced to pay up again.

The technical read is short, while the fundamentals are positive—hedge your risk.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…

A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.

10 Mar 2022

Lumber rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Commodity Index’s Hit Decades Highs

Last week the commodity funds saw a massive influx of capital as the investment community tried to take advantage of a booming commodity cycle. The commodity index’s hit decades highs. How will this affect lumber futures? I’ll try to navigate all the features of the industry today. I’m pretty sure you can take the word lumber out and insert a different commodity because the issues look the same. Keep that in mind.

Factors pressuring the lumber market:

First is transportation, especially rail. Not only does it cause the jobsite supply to be late, but it is also complicating the whole process from logging to production. This organic slowdown in production will create shortfalls.

Next is COVID and labor. A labor shortage has been the industry’s nemesis for years now. Now COVID has placed a limit on how many days an entire crew is in place. Add to that a shrinking labor pool and the fact that production now looks different, and you get a builder that can’t get the production curve past 70%. It has kept the completion numbers down and the backlogs growing.

Another factor is the new 2-week pricing and the just-in-time inventory management. There was a major shift in inventory management after 2018’s run-up that has now grown to the number one choice of the distribution chain: contracts and VMI’s. A bullish demand cycle creates a large void in the chain, and many are forced into the market more often, creating bottlenecks.

These are the three dominant economic reasons for the lack of supply. A few others are:

Current demand and a 1.9 building permit number
The fact that another 700,000 workings were added to the economy
A push to buy as rates begin to rise

If you alleviate any of those factors, you will not solve the shortage issue. Only the lessening of demand will turn the market. Again, only the lessening of demand will turn the market.

Today, the marketplace is micro-focused on each factor, and any change will lead to selling. The market saw the result of that selling back in late January. We expect transportation to get better, and that change will take it from a horrible situation to bad. This will add some relief but not solve the problem. So, the mess continues.

An eventual pullback:

Where it can pull back to is a tough call. The first factor to look at is the new quarterly pricing. That will be a high number. This last quarter was manageable because the trade was able to mix in $600 cars with the new $1,200 cars making the number look good. This time the trade is paying the high of the year with nowhere to hide. Those same traders that were willing buyers on the last break at $800 are now at higher levels. It will create an artificial bottom again. The other issue is the trade refusing to pay up, thus sitting short in a rising market. That hasn’t been a good strategy and ends up bottoming any sell-off.

Factors to watch:

The appalling devastation Russia is causing in Ukraine adds to the logistics mess throughout Asia and Europe. Those issues will continue to disrupt the flow of lumber, bullish in a tight market. It also could be the tipping point to turn consumer sentiment down. We are already fighting massive increases in the cost of a home and major inflation on a personal level. We know the Fed has to push the economy into a recession to slow it. They have been reluctant to do that, causing even more pressure. The stock market is losing some steam. Those buying the second home with a loan from their portfolio are starting to push back. Any one of these factors can change the demand picture drastically. But each one has its own very slow-moving dynamics. There is no flip of the switch item there.

What could be a “flip the switch cause” is the drastic rise in limits, and historically that stopped a market trend which was its purpose.

Final word:

Only J. Powell and the old-timers think this market is going back to $300. It isn’t, and in fact, this market will be a tough go in the 1,000s for some time. Sell-offs will push the market lower, but buyers can’t wait on that today. If the funds start to show up down here, futures will hit $2,000. If they don’t, $400 up and $400 down will be the norm. Buy cash and buy a put…

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

01 Mar 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Difficulty of Managing Inventories in Today’s Marketplace

This week’s back and forth trading in futures highlighted just how difficult it is to manage inventories in today’s marketplace. The problem is insufficient real-time data to read supply or demand accurately. We saw the industry going from a too much wood attitude on Monday to a now enough by Friday. That type of uncertainty has plagued this industry for years. In the recent past, many took to contracts, which has taken out some of the emotion but has also reduced margins. This buy sides self-prescribed shrinking of margins causes voids in the market.

The reluctance of other buyers and pure demand also adds to the voids. So, where are we going with this? We can’t keep this beast full in a rising market.

The marketplace continues to argue about business. 1899 is a big permit number and too large to produce for. We hear all about the actual completion number, labor, windows, yada, yada, yada. The permit number is either business for today, potential business, or soon to be postponed business. Most economists were in the same camp for years that we couldn’t build 1.5 because of labor, and we couldn’t produce 1.5 because of log issues. If the industry can’t complete 1.5 and there isn’t enough wood available for 1.5, why are permits rising to almost 1.9? The simple answer is increasing demand. Covid, the Fed, and the stock market have hyperbole the housing sector.

The Fed flooded the system with cash that sent the stock market to new highs giving many a large windfall. Throw the urban bail into the mix, and here we are. From here, the question becomes whether these levels are sustainable, and the quick answer is no. The longer answer is that the world has changed, and attitudes towards money have changed, as has investing. It will take years for this industry to get a read on the net result of that change. History has shown that industries learn to be more efficient, but higher prices stay.

Too many or not enough issues are the primary cause of our large swings as it “encourages” the algo’s to push the market. The market experiences temporary slowdowns in purchases which negatively impacts prices in futures. We saw early last week how quickly the market focuses on supply and shuts off. As we look towards better shipping and more Euro wood, I expect the industry to take a large step back. Prices will fall sharply, but with 1.9 permits, it won’t stay down for long.

Let’s Get Technical:

There are two views diverging views of the current lumber chart. The non-lumber technicians see a market consolidating to go sharply higher, and it is a pattern of a market cliff dwelling to seasoned lumber technicians. Who is seeing it correctly? The issue today is that lumber has historically been a pure momentum-driven market, and it corrects but rarely will it maintain a flat trading area at a top or bottom.

We have two weeks of a flat market hit by a shutdown announcement and a Russian invasion. Our first takeaway is that the marketplace is accepting these higher prices levels, and it is a market looking for the middle. That said, as a seasoned lumber technician, I would not be too exposed to a possible cliff in front of us.

Weekly Round-Up:

First and foremost, betting on cheaper wood is not a good business strategy. July is sitting close to $1,000, which is $300 under March futures and cash. I am looking for a spring selloff, but the math indicates a continued tight market for months. The entire industry will sell in May and go away after last year will keep inventories very low. As the technical section says, the industry is trying to find some middle ground for pricing but keeps getting caught in the logistics. There is a better cash trade, and the industry is adding a few hedges along the way. The funds are adding a few longs on every spike, but nothing could lead to a trend.

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

22 Feb 2022

Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: It’s been an exciting week for futures

It has been an exciting week in futures as it traded each of the five sessions. There was continued volatility, but March closed virtually unchanged from a week ago. That’s progress. We saw that the CME upped the limits, and we’ll also see an article in the WSJ this week referencing the constant limit moves we have. Notoriety is good. At the same time, there has been a slow creep high in total open interest.

It has been a while since the futures and cash markets were this close. However, we’re not sure the futures market is that close to the cash market after hearing numerous reports of cash trades over $1,400. It looks like the market has paused to take a look.

Lumber has always been an industry that would buy into an uptrend and hedge into a downtrend, and there wasn’t much pre-positioning. The same is in place today where a switch is flipped, and we all see the panic on the buy-side. Then another switch is flipped, and you can’t find a buyer. This doesn’t take days or weeks but just hours. The massive cost of a carload of lumber is compounding the problem today. Since we don’t buy on the way down or sell up, there is a large void created on every move.

The last time we sat around $1,200, the momentum indicated a potential for a $400 move in either direction, and it turned out to be down. May is $100 cheaper than March, and July is $100 cheaper than May. The futures market is trying to smooth out the downside, and the upside will organically be smoothed out with time. Coming into Monday, there is a controlled burn to the downside, but the upside could find some running room.

We all know that any hint of better transportation will cause a sell-off. This week, we saw a little pressure from a BC mill finally shipping a few cars to the U.S. on Sunday, February 20. It just seems a little early to get the ball back.

Let’s Get Technical:

The focus here will be on the longer-term chart pattern and its momentum indicators. The most scrutinized area is the last gap left from 1114.90 to 1069.90. (Weekly) a closing of that gap in the March contract would be very negative. It should hold for now and then be an objective after expiration. The market is sitting right on a resistance line at 1264.30. It isn’t a firm point but does come off last year’s high. One positive to note is that the market made a new high on this move taking out the previous high from January. $1,336 is a new weekly high. Finally, if another leg is up, it will take a shot at the weekly gap of 1,514.80 to 1,540.00. The current RSI is at 68%. It hit 94% last year.

The technical read is slightly friendly but primarily neutral. The least resistance is up, as is most of the pain.

Weekly Round-Up:

Let’s take a look back at rising open interest. There is a new segment of the industry using derivatives for risk mitigation. Most of it is coming from the buy-side. This has been a slow-moving process but is now starting to bear some fruit. Obviously, our volatility keeps many out or limits their exposure, but they are around. The March contract shows more signing of a squeeze than any long-term relief. That said, this is a bottomless pit. The rollover will be violent this time, with the mills adding to the downside. We are again building a transit inventory mess, but the issues seem to have longer legs this time. It will drag through March expiration, but will it drag through May’s?

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

07 May 2021

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 1-7

Corn continued it’s hot run this month with a great week in both old crop and new crop prices. As Brazil’s safrinha crop keeps facing a dry outlook, pressure is mounting on the US to produce a great crop to fulfill world demand. The US forecast is turning wetter for many major growing areas but remains cool for this time of year. The cool weather is not ideal for early growth, but the rain will be welcome in areas facing drought conditions (see map at bottom). There is a rumor of more Chinese interest in new crop which helped propel old crop to end the week. Despite poor exports this week, this news, along with South America’s troubles, have been the market moving news this week. The US corn crop is seen at 44% planted at the start of the week beginning May 3.

Via Barchart

Soybeans followed Corn this week as they also saw strong gains. China’s ASF news has slowed as of late which is good for export expectations to China. The world demand has continued to be strong and helpful to prices in both South America and the US, while US beans remain competitive in the world market even at these levels. The recent wet and colder weather across much of the US is not expected to cause any issues for the soybean crop except maybe pushing planting back in some areas where farmers also must wait to plant corn. 25% of the US soybean crop is seen as being planted for the week beginning May 3.

Via Barchart

The big question right now: What is going on with cotton? Cotton has not enjoyed in the rally in 2021 that other commodities have. The demand has been there, but there are already worries about the 2021 cotton crop. Normally these are a recipe for higher prices, right? The fundamentals would agree as higher comparative prices for other commodities may take away some cotton acres by the end of planting season. The technical side has been cotton’s enemy as of late as they have not been able to make new contract highs, unlike the grains. The world shipping bottleneck does not appear to be getting any better and as the US continues to come out of lockdowns along with other countries demand will only make it worse. This problem needs to be solved sooner rather than later.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones
The Dow was up this week while other indexes were mixed with the Nasdaq and Russel falling. As earnings continue to be reported many of the winners of the last year have posted strong quarters but it appears the momentum behind them have slowed as good earnings have sometimes been followed by selling.

Lumber
Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast
Check out or recent podcasts with guests Elaine Kub and Kyle Little. Elaine and Jeff discuss grain markets and trading grains while Kyle helps give insight into the Lumber markets and what has been going on.

Listen with Kyle:

Listen now with Elaine

CME
CME Group announced this week that it will not re-open its trading pits that were closed last March at the start of the pandemic. The Eurodollar Options pit will remain open. See the full press release here.

US Drought Monitor
The map below shows the current drought conditions throughout the US as planting continues across the country.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

30 Apr 2021

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Livestock, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG Market Update: April 24-30

Volatility was the name of the game this week as many days saw wide trading ranges on both sides of unchanged. Looking at the chart below you can just how wide ranges the last few days have been. Despite the volatlity, the May contract settled squarely within the range as of Thursday. This volatility came about as we’ve faced a short squeeze on the front month May contract. Coming into the week, there were nearly 200,000 open contracts, as of this morning there are only 12,500 – presumably many were on the short side and needed to cover.

Regardless of what has caused the rally – higher prices is GREAT for the American Farmer!

For the July contract and new crop Dec, the markets followed the May higher this week and most April as South America’s struggles with drought conditions begin to be seen in yield estimates. Any rain after May 10^th probably won’t be able to add must help this late in the game. As expected, exports were good this week but that has become the new normal. The epanded limits coming next week along with higher prices means we should probably expect volatility to hang around.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had small gains on the week as they also traded in wide ranges in the May contract in addition to future months. The short squeeze has end users scrambling with physical delivery coming up. Along with beans rallying, we have seen basis improve in many areas as buyers try get what is left out of farmers bins. A growing consensus among traders is that continued strong US cash bids indicate that the stock numbers are lower than the USDA reports. Will the USDA adjust in the June report is a major question? Bean meal and oil have also rallied in the past couple weeks aiding to soybeans rise. The fundamental news around the market was less in focus this week with the May contract expiration causing for most of the volatility.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow was up slightly on the week as more news about reopenings continue to roll in and President Biden gave his first speech to Congress. Vaccination rates continue to be strong in many cities and New York City announced this week they will lift all restrictions for reopening July 1^st.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out or recent podcasts with guests Elaine Kub and Kyle Little. Elaine and Jeff discuss grain markets and trading grains while Kyle helps give insight into the Lumber markets and what has been going on.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

Other News

On Monday, daily trading limits will expand for our major markets with corn increased from 25 cents to 40 cents, beans from 70 to $1.00 and wheat from 40 to 45. The CBOT is not tipping their hand that they expect volatility this summer, the daily limit increases are largely due to the high prices to keep daily ranges in line with historic percentages of price.

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas are currently experiencing drought conditions across the US. Not much changed from last week. The rains in Texas will help alleviate some dryness in the area but will not solve their moisture issues. Some dryness has crept into Illinois and Indiana but nothing to worry about right now.

Weekly prices

Via Barchart.com

23 Apr 2021

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Update: April 17 – 23

Off to the races? Corn was limit up Thursday as prices for May corn topped $6.50 for the first time since 2013 continuing its impressive weekly run. The May option expiration occurring Friday has traders scrambling to cover short call option positions by buying futures and positioning themselves for next week’s first notice day. As we have been seeing in the cash market for a while with improving basis, it seems the futures market is catching up and realizing the market needs corn and it needs it now. Any farmers with old crop remaining has the cards in their hands looking to get prices high enough for them to make any sales. The cold weather/snow across much of the country this week is not expected to cause many issues except delaying planting a little longer in some areas as we wait for soil temperatures to get back up. Brazil’s dry outlook has not changed and will continue to put stress on a crop that does not need anymore problems. Continue to monitor the dryness in South America as problems there will transition to gains in our new crop markets as the world will need the US to produce a large crop.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gained on the week as they followed corn for similar reasons. The South American weather issues will not effect the soybean market like corn but as we have seen good news for one has been good news for the other. The may option expiration came into play as beans saw a strong rise on Thursday even though they were not limit up. Exports this week were nothing to write home about but still within expectations and well ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA estimates. With world demand high, the US needs to have a great crop to meet it and not cause issues in the world pipeline. As volume begins to pick up in the November contract it will be important to have a plan for marketing your crop this year as volatility is always around.

Via Barchart

Cotton did not enjoy the rally the grains had this week as they continue to trail the other markets in price competitiveness. Weekly exports are expected to decline going forward, not from a lack of demand, but from a lack of supply left in the US, which should be seen as bullish despite lower export numbers appearing bearish. The big head scratcher is why cotton prices are lagging the grain market so much when prices need to be competitive just to get all the acres in the ground. With corn and soybeans taking their next leg up this week, December cotton equivalent price should be about $1.11 vs. the current $.84. What is needed to get to this level? We could see what is currently playing out in the grain markets on option expiration causing a big boost when the next one comes up, but cotton needs a boost to get it all in the ground.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow had been trading fairly evenly on the week with some down and up days until Thursday’s losses following the Biden administration stating their plans to increase the capital gains tax to over 40% for high earners. A number that high will face headwinds from the house and senate and is unlikely to come to fruition but the Biden administration did campaign on raising those and a raise should be expected.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas are currently experiencing drought conditions across the US. Not much changed from last week.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

21 Apr 2021

Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

Lumber: A Demand Driven Rally….On Steroids

If you haven’t been watching one of the more esoteric futures market lately – Lumber – you’ve been missing a rather parabolic up market – up nearly 9% last week, 27% for the month, 78% for the year, and 280% over the past 12 months. Move aside dogecoin!

So how does a $300 commodity that regularly deals with events such as wildfires and sharply higher housing starts now come to be trading at almost $1300?

To answer that question, we checked in with our lumber expert Brian Leonard to get the inside scoop:

Unlike most other commodities, lumber is used in a product with a long decision-making process. Housing has a long timeline. While the production of a 2×4 is rather quick, the cycle from tree to house is much longer. And because of that abnormally long period of time, lumber futures have the possibility of overlapping economic cycles and seasons. With that amount of lead time available how did this commodity get so under-bought, so under-produced and so under-supplied to cause a 300% increase (!!!) from it’s typical price?

#1 is the effect on housing due to the increase in federal funding (or QE as we now call it). It is the way for the Fed and Treasury to shore up the economy which leads to the building of wealth and ease of access to funds at a low interest rate. In doing so, there can be a positive affect on the stock market, as we’ve seen – and in typical fashion, the housing market tends to increase in tandem with the stock market and the U.S. economy. In this case, history serves as an indicator in three occasions of this excessive capital spike in recent history. The first was the run in the late 1940’s after WWII, then in the mid 2000’s caused by a substantial drop in cold war funding in the 90’s and September 11^th. Today the flood of funding has been caused by Covid, and the numerous stimulus packages and prevalence of low rates – which can generate excessive demand.

Today what we have is one of the greatest economic “perfect storms” ever seen in a commodity; one that has been brewing for years. This current explosive market dates all the way back to 2006 when annualized average new housing unit starts hit a historic high of 2,273,000 (Census.gov) with close to 50% made up of second home buys and limited credit – we saw a top and the net result was a saturated housing market.

Note: (That was occurring at that time when the bug kill timber out of BC was peaking keeping production abnormally high.)

The oversaturation slowed building month over month and by the second half of 2007 the starts number fell below the teardown rate. For baseline, the teardown rate is considered between 850 and 1 million homes tore down or destroyed each year. Construction from mid-2007 to mid-2012 was less than teardown and was the longest period in history for such a low number of new homes built. The “great recession” of 2008 to 2010 was the biggest factor causing the depressed state of construction.

One of the lasting effects of the recession on the industry was an increase in permanent closing of producing mills in North America. While there were plans already in place because of shifting supplies and landscapes for timber etc….the recession seemed to ramp up the pace.

A second factor under the radar of economists was the effect the recession had on many families, especially future first-time home buyers. The ones we called the “lost generation” in housing which were those who graduated between 2008 and 2012. This group had difficulty finding a job that would earn enough to pay off their student debts let alone marry and buy a home. The housing market now lacked those first-time home buyers and there was a major shift to apartment living in the urban areas. Pubs and pups was the new mantra – marriage, kids, and house was no longer a goal of most.

The period from 2013 to 2018 saw a steady slow growth in housing led by the boom in multifamily. Single family construction was still lagging. 2018 showed the first signs of an imbalance between supply and demand in lumber causing a sharp run up in futures to a new historic high of $659. The previous all time high of $493.50 was made in 1993 and caused initially by the spotted owl issue. The 2018 run up had many other issues such as a tax duty, long commodity funds and an industry short. There was also a more aggressive embrace of just-in-time inventory management and these factors combined were setting a bullish tone Firms were set up to be under inventoried and forced to pay higher prices.

Today, the biggest factor changing the landscape was the Covid-effect. This market was likely heading higher due to the low housing supply (requiring more lumber demand) and going to see issues regardless, but the Covid reactions have multiplied them.

The biggest factors that have led up to this run up:

A drawdown in production capacity of dimension lumber
A low inventory of new single-family homes
Historic lows in mortgage rates
Historically high amounts of capital flowing into the system
Greater wealth caused by a sharply higher stock market
An unprecedent shift to single family homes

Adding Covid to the mix; we saw a stoppage of production at mills with only a marginal slowdown in construction. At the same time, we saw rail and trucking slow, and to this day rolling shutdowns at some mills and rail remain. Another issue affecting lumber prices is trucking and the lack of available drivers; we currently have the smallest pool of new drivers in recent history. T This shrinking pool has slowed or stopped any increase in available trucks as Covid has shifted many to Amazon.

Real Time Issues:

Inability to increase production causing supply constraints
Buyer paralysis either mentally or financially… financially could be a low credit line and over budget all because of a $160K train load of lumber.
Unprecedented rush to single family homes with a yard (no more commuting, work from home effect?)
Reduced distribution chain which points back to issue 2 above

So where is the relief? The relief from higher prices will only come from a slowdown in demand. That slowdown might be self-inflicted because of the lag in the building chain either because of the lack of OSB (Oriented Standard Board), appliances or a paint color. This will slowdown construction down and allow some of the froth to be lopped off the top. It will not decrease construction plans, but maybe just draw them out. The greater relief valve will be a slowdown in traffic going into the summer. The higher prices for homes and the longer time frame for construction will start to weigh on the market. But this also will only give temporary relief. A fundamental change in buyer sentiment needs to happen. In the meantime, if you cannot or will not build inventories, the marketplace will always be short. It is that simple.

– Brian V. Leonard
Brian Leonard is a 30+ year veteran in the commodities trading space. Brian began his career as an assistant in the Soybean pit in the early ‘80s, and moved on to wood products in 1994. Brian’s current role for RCM Ag Services is to serve as a Risk Analyst, specializing in the wood products sector. His customer base spans a large spectrum ranging from wood producers to home builders with all different types of risk management needs. Brian also assists with risk management within the currency and fuel sectors. Brian recently received an MA in Pastoral Studies at University of St. Mary of the Lake, and uses that to work with churches in low income neighborhoods in the Chicagoland area.

19 Apr 2021

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Updates: April 10-16

Corn had a good week as we reach new contract highs in May for old crop. As you can see in the 1 year chart below after trading in the $5.30-$5.60 range for a couple months corn has seen a strong response since the Projected Plantings report came out. The export numbers this week were not great, yet corn was still able to post a positive day following the report as the number was still 10 million bushels above the weekly total needed to meet USDA estimates. Analysts are expecting Brazil’s safrinha crop to potentially lose 5 million metric tonnes due to the late planting and stress from the drought conditions that have been present for a while. Ethanol stocks are the lowest mid-April they have been since 2014 showing that demand has ramped back up as re-openings continue. Some corn planting has started in areas across the country but this week’s cold weather will bring it to a stop as many areas will have to wait for it to warm back up to continue planting.

Via Barchart

Soybeans saw small gains on the week, but for the most part it was a quiet week for beans after a slight dip then gains. The news in the market around soybeans has been limited which is why the corn and bean chart are starting to look different. The cold weather that will delay/pause planting in some areas will not have much, if any, effect on soybean planting as they usually begin later anyway. Beans are now well off their contract highs for old crop and until we get back to those levels do not expect any strengthening look from the charts. Soybean’s will continue to move with exports and if anything crazy happens in South America but will probably slowly follow corn just how corn followed soybeans until now for the short term.

Via Barchart

Cotton continues its rebound from the recent lows as world demand continues to increase and consumer spending rebounds. The dollar has also weakened recently supporting commodities as well. Retail sales for the month of March were reported this week climbing 9.8% as stimulus checks were spent and consumers get back out in the market. With cotton prices where they are compared to other crops many farmers are stuck with a difficult decision on which to plant. In some cases, farmers in areas such as west Texas, currently suffering from bad drought conditions, may elect to plant sorghum (milo) as a cheaper to produce alternative that has a much wider planting window. The drought conditions are a problem (see map below) in many areas, but when 40% of the cotton crop is expected to be planted in Texas the supply and demand story come the fall comes into play.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow gained on the week despite the news that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution will be put on hold after 6 cases of a rare blood clot after giving out over 7 million doses. The reopening strength has still been playing in the markets as many consumers are out and about again after receiving stimulus checks.

Lumber

In case you have not been paying attention to it, lumber prices have been high for a while now but continue to climb. In the cash market any wood that is for sale is bought immediately and this is also being reflected in the futures market with it now trading over $1,200. This plays out in the cost to build houses in a real estate market that has been hot the last year in the US despite the pandemic.

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas of the US are currently suffering from drought conditions and as you can see it is widespread. As planting begins in many areas some areas will be delayed as they wait for a good rain to help them get in the field. The drought in Texas will have the biggest effect on Cotton as over 40% of the US cotton crop is expected to be planted there.

Weekly Prices

10 Aug 2020

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Update: August 1 – 7

Corn took it on the chin this week, again, as crop conditions and weather forecasts continue to point toward the potential of a record yield. With strong conditions and weather moving forward, most of the corn belt, with the exception of parts of Iowa suffering from severe drought, are running out of time for many weather factors to effect the crop. Keeping an eye on forecasts for Ohio and Michigan will be important to farmers as they could use some rain in those areas but are not desperate, yet. If the forecast continues to look promising there is not much bullish news out there to help find support with a 180 bpa crop still in play. Keep an eye on exports as we continue to see strong export numbers but little positive price reaction as a product of it. Yield estimates range from 178-183 bpa from what we have seen from across the spectrum, showing that many top experts believe a record yield could be seen this year.

Soybeans had a tough week like corn because high yields are still very much in play on top of already strong stocks. Without China ramping up their purchases to try and at least act like they are trying to reach the Phase 1 Trade Agreement; beans are running into a demand problem. Bean yields are looking to potentially be 52+ bpa with a 73% G/E rating this week saw prices take a hit. Beans and corn have been moving lower over the last few weeks as few weather issues and no large surprises in demand have come to fruition. Any problem that China has with the Three Gorges Dam area could lead to more purchases but a total failure of the dam would be a disaster as it could cause a massive loss of life along with flooding of large areas of farmland.

Cotton has seen a boost this week as it, like other raw materials have seen a boost as demand around the world starts to come back. Another supportive factor for cotton has been the continued decline in the value of the US Dollar. The threat of Hurricane Isaias effecting the crop in the SE helped give a boost early in the week but how much damage it actually did to the crop remains to be seen. If prices can breach and stay above 65 cents that would be a good level of support.

Phase 1 Trade Agreement Meeting
The US and China are set to have their first check-in meeting to assess how Phase 1 is going (spoiler alert: not great). This is on top of recent tensions over the closing of embassies and spying allegations. Not sure that anything good can actually come out of these talks but they will be worth keeping an eye on August 15^th. Hopefully we see a commitment to ramp up and get a boost to start that week following.

Lumber
Lumber continues its upward trend to price levels we have not seen since 2018. Lumber is a commodity the is easily produced because of the sheer quantity of it available supply is not an issue to slow down consumption. As many purchases and contracts are done well in advance the demand has not wavered as much as the pipeline of getting it from A-Z has. In a volatile market like this, especially during this kind of positive run for price, nobody ever wants to call the top so looks like everyone may want to ride it out and see what happens.

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