RCM Ag Services

Tag: Lumber

08 Jan 2024
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: The futures trade last week looked flat

Recap:

On the surface, the futures trade last week looked flat. The net change for the week was up $2. In fact, the last seven sessions have seen closes within a $4 range. A digestion phase after the run-up? Underneath the surface, things are changing. We have shifted the fund shorts over to the industry. Wood is now hedged. We have also shifted some of the industry longs over to new fund longs. The makeup of the futures market today is friendly. It is not a signal to buy, but it could generate higher prices on its own.

The futures market is closed on Monday the 15th, so January expires on Friday. The current open interest is normal for five sessions to go. With the growing industry’s short number, we may see some upward pressure again. We could see a shift to expirations now having an upward bias.

As far as the cash market goes, it remains fluid. That has been the case for months now. It has the feel of the covid slowdown that never occurred. This time, we spent a year expecting a recession and higher unemployment. What we found was steady business.

With mills coming back online and wholesalers owning wood, it could be sloppy for a while. The funds are the key.

This recent sideways trade is nearing an end…….

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

18 Dec 2023
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE VOLKER RALLY

Happy Holidays to all and your families.

Recap:

The Volker rally. The markets reacted very positively to Powell’s comments on lower rates sooner. The comments were in stark contrast to the previous comments about higher for longer. The lumber market was no different, squeezing out gains for the week. So, while there are positives on the horizon, the facts are the futures market has been flat for over 75 weeks. (see chart below) That is a long time without a trend. The housing market has a like dynamic. if you look at today’s active listings, new listings, and closed sales; they are very close to 2019 levels. We are not coming out of COVID weaker or stronger, just flat. So, what has changed? The answer is two main drivers. The first has been the significant loss of production in Canada. That will continue with little chance of growing that back. The other is rates. The homes today are not affordable to many buyers. Higher rates also contribute to the pause in move-ups. The buying dynamic is flat.

Those two factors, supply and affordability keep the market flat. Either one would cause the market to trend but remain in conflict. One thing is sure: the tighter you control inventories next year, the more you’ll pay up.

Technical:

The Bollinger bands on a weekly chart are as tight as I have seen them. A spike through one of the bands is imminent. I expect a higher spike since the futures market sits near the top band. That said, if the market continues its drag sideways, look for an uneventful winter season. The market tends to hint towards a direction as we go into the Christmas holidays.

Note:

The open interest increase is industry-based this time.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

11 Dec 2023
Agriculture, CME, Hedging, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “THE SEASON OF CONTENTMENT”

Recap:

“The season of contentment.” Most have closed up shop for the rest of the year. There is minimal volume in either the futures or cash. The futures trade is a liquidation of all sides. The outlook is also fuzzy. As the daily traders look for a crack at the mills the long-term traders wonder if that was enough of a buy. In 2023, there have been three good buy rounds, each at a lower cash price and futures bounce. Does the trend continue? I will say this: most of the industry does not want lower cash prices. That tells me it could be more of the same, dragging the market lower until the next round.

It’s been over a year of complacency, confusion, and a content market. The data shows a loss of 20% from the retail sector side versus a drop in supply of roughly 20%. You can be more balanced. Historically, this industry doesn’t come out of that phase quietly. With less production, less Euro, and a construction needle that doesn’t move, the volatility will be on the upside. The futures market is quietly indicating that with the support we are seeing. It’s going to take more time.

Technical:

The lower objectives of 518.50 and 510.50 are still in play. These are corrective objectives. If you look at the wedge pattern that formed in 2023, the bands are 568.80 and 495.30. Today, lower mill prices will not stimulate buying. With an RSI of 49.40%, those bands look a mile away.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

04 Dec 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The lumber market today has three defined pillars

Recap:

The lumber market today has three defined pillars. The first is supply and demand. The other is rates, and then there is inventory management attitudes. All are currently indicating more of the same for 2024. What could be different is inventory management.

This past month we saw a much more robust buy round. There was a genuine attitude that buying cash at $370 or $375 held a low risk. We saw that again with the lack of hedging after a $50 run in futures. Most believed that inventory management was sufficient. Distribution and wholesalers want to hold more product. Contracts and VMI limit the availability of wood at any given time. The fact that the industry was able to have a good buy round indicates a shift at the mills to hold more wood. That is good for prices in a flat market. A Weyerhaeuser guy (Jay) always said that it is bullish when the mills control the wood. When they ship it to others it is bearish. Let’s see if that is the case next year.

Last week’s negative trade reflected the lack of hedging by the industry. The end-of-the-year timeframe is rough for those holding inventories. Another sloppy week is expected. The massive liquidation in the futures market takes it out of the game to help at this point.

Technical:

The futures market retraced 38% of the move last week. The 50% mark is 518.00 and the 61% is 509.70. All are in reach. What is a little more bullish is the fact that the lower Bollinger band sits at 520.50. It would take time and work to get that band to turn down. I am looking for a lower trade in January, but the timing may be closer to expiration.

Note: fund managers point to a possible shift in the fund makeup in lumber from short to long. Rates will control that conversation.

Note: the sleeper in this market is the monthly inventory of new homes available. This last number of 7.8 months is the highest we have seen in three years.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

27 Nov 2023
Agriculture, CME, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Update: I Will Continue to focus on the technical side of this market

Recap:

I will continue to focus on the technical side of this market. There are two takeaways from the weekly chart below.

The first read is that when a market goes through an extreme volatility event, there tends to be a corrective phase. You can see just how flat the market has become. In 2021 and 2022, the market experienced record prices and volatility. In 2023, the market has been flat. I wonder if the excess volatility has been sufficiently drained yet. The chart shows that futures can run another $50 higher and still be in the flat range. That brings me to read number two. This is a flat market working along its bottom. Rarely does a market break out down from this type of trade. The breakout is usually a retracement of the last move. So, this market has some room to run higher. I made a case in March, more than once, that the potential distance up is far greater than down. That math has stayed the same, but the timeline is in doubt.

The fundamentals are getting better as time goes on. The market is getting used to higher rates and higher home prices. A slight downtick in either stimulates more activity. I expect a continued start and lag with the buyers for another year, but the good news is the actual decline was marginal at best. My other soapbox rant continues to be the excess capital in the system. Massive capital injections are still coming into the market. There is also enormous capital sitting on the sidelines. And finally, 2024 is an election year. Enough said there.

Last week’s futures trade was a good read of the market. The recent Sept-Oct trend to new lows was more a sign of frustration than weakness. The bounce off those lows is a rebalancing, but last week’s positive trade showed underlying strength. The breakthrough of the 100-day average and the 200-day average indicated new strength. Two other keys are that Elliot Wave is calling the excess volatility gone. This is not a bottom call. It is a warning not to discount the possibility of some large spikes higher. If true, the other key factor could be a market exiting the focus of the 2020 to 2022 data and reverting to pre-2020 data and fundamentals. As we remember, that was an underbuilt sector with lessening production.

This week’s focus remains on the algo buying versus the premium. This is a very disciplined premium/discount trading market. It will have to meet somewhere in the middle. A good indicator of potential January weakness will be if the spread goes further. The upcoming roll might be enough to bring January closer to the cash market.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

20 Nov 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THIS MARKET IS STILL A GRIND, BUT THIS TIME A GRIND HIGHER

Recap:

This market is still a grind, but this time a grind higher. The January futures contracts were up $3.50, while the cash print was up $3. It did feel better than that all week. There may be better confidence building up with the recent cash trade. Also, the projections set in January are coming into play. The expectation was a reduced supply coming out of Canada and a slowing of Euro wood coupled with less demand.

The last estimate I saw was an 11.7 shipment number expected for 2023 out of Canada. We were looking for a 12+ number but could get less than expected. The Euro issue is under control. Coming into 2023, the docks were flooded with Euro. It was pretty easy of a call for that problem to subside. The surprise has been the steady demand. It is off YoY, but not at the pace expected. Most were prepping for the next shoe to drop in the economy, only to be forced back into the market. That is where we are at today.

Technical:

The best read for the next eight weeks will be entirely technical. The algo’s, funds, and support/resistance points will be the feature. Why is that? As futures neared the 200-day moving average, the funds started to liquidate. With less fund selling, the algo/long fund has started to buy. There are no fundamental drivers. It is all futures related. If you keep pushing futures higher, the industry can buy cash with a place to go for protection. Every rally for the last 5 years started with the ability for the trade to sell the board for protection. It is a tough time of year to get that firmly in place, but it is trying to form.

This rally is going on 18 sessions, and with an RSI of almost 70%, I believe it needs to be corrected. Hedging or basis trading a percentage of buys is the risk management play. The 200-day is sitting at 555.50.

The pulse of this market is the computer trading in futures. If has not yet switched from the short fund leading to a long fund taking over but it is different.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

13 Nov 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: January gained $10 for the week, but it felt much better than that

Happy Veterans Day!

One of our own, a World War II veteran, is celebrating this weekend. I believe he was in the Army-Aircorp and served with the French underground. Jack Hall from Hall Lumber Sales in Middleton, Wis, is 99 years old. If you are wondering what he likes, he is a big proponent of owning more precious metals and less cash.  

Happy Veterans Day to all who served!

Recap:

January gained $10 for the week, but it felt much better than that. Momentum is getting created just by the fact that sentiment is less bad. While the upside is limited to fund liquidating, there is still that positive note. If you look at open interest, it is apparent that the market is up because of liquidation. Cash, on the other hand, is testing the market’s ability to accept higher prices. The mills still don’t have pricing power back. It gets the win here solely because of how underbought the market has become. If the starts number comes in around 1.4 on Friday, this market will be undersupplied after all the Christmas shutdowns. If it comes in closer to 1.3, then the shutdowns won’t have an effect. That is a general assumption because of the report’s vagueness, but sticking with the dot plots is meaningful.

In 2024, there is less chance of a debacle in employment. The prospective buyers have gone into the weeds with rising rates and primary home prices. They have not gone away, and numbers are growing. That is the main support for holding prices up. There will be spikes up and down in the futures market, but the general economics is that these levels work. Turn demand up some and we are off. Keep demand at its current levels, and it is then more of the same. 

Technical:

The technical picture has been very informational for this last run. It is now pushing its limit on a market that is only filling in. This week, November is expiring. The chart pattern in Jan could begin to top and slowly roll over by the end of the week. 

If the funds show up, I’m wrong. 

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

06 Nov 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: I would not call it the Great Reset, but there was definitely cash trading last week

Recap:

I would not call it the Great Reset, but there was definitely cash trading last week. What started as traders covering cash turned into a global buy. We also saw a mill go up $18 in less than 24 hours. That was reminiscent of the 21-22 trade when they threw a dart each morning. Let’s face it: the mills need to get prices higher, and their marketing for the last 18 months hasn’t done it. The marketplace was extremely underbought, and they took advantage of it. Is it a tighter market? Most likely not, but like futures two weeks ago, it is a “shot over the bow.” This spike results from the lack of buying and will be how the market trades in 2024.

Futures were up $28 for the week, with most coming on Thursday and Friday. The prominent driver in our market is whether the funds are selling or buying. They are the mover of the market today. Friday’s high volume and drop in January open interest could signal a slight exit by them. Their trip number to exit is closer to the trade going into the end of the year. It is a double-edged sword as the liquidation will then show up as new selling on the next break. More liquidation will show up early in the week.

Technical:

This rally has created a strong upward chart trend. In January, we are sticking to the gap area as the objective. The gap sits from 533.50 to 545.50. A futures run to that area equates to a $410 cash market. The problem is that this type of run can’t stop, pull back, and then go again. A slowdown will bring the market back down and send the trade to the sidelines. The short-term technicals are slightly overbought. The RSI in Jan is 77% so there is room. What is worrisome is the upper Bollinger band is sitting at 522, putting January well over that band. A pullback or sideways trade is needed to correct it. The other item on the radar is the small gap left Friday from 512 to 511.50. Fill it and you’ll shut the market down.

I like the chart trend and the renewed enthusiasm in the cash trade. My issue is how quickly the market finishes an inventory build and then hibernates. The market will give us that answer early this time.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

30 Oct 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber report: The immense tension in the lumber industry is lower mill costs and less demand versus a new face of the pent-up market

Recap:

The immense tension in the lumber industry is lower mill costs and less demand versus a new face of the pent-up market. No better example of what lies ahead from this tension is the way futures traded on Thursday. A pattern of voids is developing that will cause higher prices as the industry now gets long futures and is no longer hedging. In the short run, the industry’s one-sidedness will continue to create downward pressure. The makeup will look like an overbought condition, with prices going lower.

Time has been good to the mills. We are going on 20 months of a bear market. At the beginning of the cycle, production costs were estimated to be around $600. One year later they were down to $500. And today they are closer to $400. We can argue about the exact cost, but the net end result is that time has lower production costs. Time has not lowered the pent-up demand.

The trend of owning a home started to pick up around 2017. Home buyer confidence soared. By 2019, the employment of many minority groups had hit records. With low rates and consumer confidence in all groups throughout the US, the hope for a home was high. Then Covid hit. My point is that the pent-up players are still around. Higher rates have slowed but not reduced the need. The home builders know that at a price point, there is good demand. They are going into 2024 with the same strategy and 2023 and that is to wait and see. Statistically, they are carrying the same high inventory of what is called undesignated starts on the books as last year. They can turn the building spigot back on quickly if the economics warrant it.

The macro picture projects the lumber market to the bottom and moves out of the bearish cycle. The norm is to have a few big buy rounds that go south. It will take time. The micro picture is to put all the chips on black. Vegas is beautiful this time of year.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

23 Oct 2023
Agriculture, CME, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand

Recap:

We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand. Each negative seems to overwhelm the positive. While the housing pace continues on its post-COVID run, there are signs of fatigue. As we measure ongoing business, we continue to get hit with bad news. The 8% mortgage was expected. The fact that it went from 8 to 8.10 in less than 24 hours wasn’t. We are seeing the fatigue factor mixing in with lousy economics. The next six months will be a street fight. The good news is this industry will stop buying, leading to higher prices. The question is when we will get back down to dirt.  Friday was a significant volume roll day. The roll has been orderly. The pressure came from accelerated liquidation. No spec long is a winner.

Macro:

We’ve been talking about how rising rates will break something. It is going to be housing. Now, the extent of the slowdown will lessen as time goes on and the marketplace adapts. Going back to January, construction was expected to be lower heading into the fourth quarter, but production and supply would also be down. That is where we sit and why the futures are stuck at $500. The challenge will be the short-term pressure the market will feel for the next few months as rates find a level. Core inflation is stuck at 4.1%. That won’t be to 3% anytime soon. In 2024, it is estimated that the US will spend $800 million to finance the debt. The Fed needs to sell a record amount of bonds. The hope is for the market to absorb all the bad news over time and not overnight hysterics.

Technical:

Technically, the market broke out to the downside and is now a sell with a 36.90 RSI. The market has seen these sell signals this year but with a very low RSI. This one has some room to go lower, and with all the under-the-table deals offered out there, it just may.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

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