Recap:
This market remains challenging. Last week, futures hit new lows almost every day, with all focus on the daily EFP deals. Most of the cash trades occurred at one mill, forcing the others to work hard to find value. This type of trade signals a bear market that is likely to continue. Throughout the year, the market has rallied because of the duties and tariffs, but without an increase in demand. Supply is tightening, but not at a pace to boost prices. We are waiting for signs of that scarcity. While we wait, there’s a large gap between the November expiration price and the January contract. These gaps are filled, but recent history shows it usually happens near expiration. The market typically gets a relief bounce before setting the lows. The issue today is the timing. We’re heading into a quiet period through Thanksgiving. We’ll see if the trade hibernates until then.
Technical:
Not that my writing isn’t confusing enough, I’ll try to beat it this time. There is a gap left from the September 2024 expiration from 499.50 to 493.00. Last week’s low was 496.00. That gap is finally getting closed. The elephant in the room is that now we have the Nov expiration gap and the older gap hanging over the market. The January contract settled on Friday at 560.50 with an RSI of 19.97%. Two takeaways: you can’t sell the January here, but your inventory is at a substantial risk over time. Macro: Hedge at $60, $80, and $100. Micro: When demand catches up, buyers will have PTSD thinking it is 2021 again. Buy cash or hedge.
This is the first time in many years that the risk is so evenly matched. There is a possibility of a $100 move in either direction. Hedge your risk! Your hedging dollars, if wrong, will be pennies per truck. If you don’t hedge and you are wrong, it will be bitcoins per truck. Hedging is a cost of doing business. Hedging is a medical insurance policy. Hedging is a production builder. For the mills, hedging is a paying customer who pays the next day. Hedge your risk and sleep better.
Corn’s Thursday rally was met with a post report Friday dip and gave up 10 cents back to $4.30. Despite the late season crop problems of drought and rust, the USDA did not find the corn yield loss that was expected and came in with a 186 bu/ac estimate, higher than the trade estimate. With higher production came higher US ending stocks, but those were not raised as much as yield as corn exports and domestic industrial demand has been exceptional this fall. The chart still looks constructive, but after a 30-cent rally in one month, the market will look to take a breather, especially after today’s report.
Beans have been on a great run higher, albeit with some volatility, until Friday’s USDA report. Coming in that hot to a report can lead to a let down which we saw to some extent. The bean yield numbers were not as surprising as corn, coming in close to estimates, but the market still took a hit. The number to look at was the US held bean imports to China unchanged at 112 MMT for the 25/26 marketing year. A flash sale report did show sales of 1.1 mbu to China around the time the trade deal was in the works. The delayed data is hard to fit with all the other news out there but China buying anything is a good sign.
