Jody Lawrence, RCM Ag Services’ head of research, joined Shay Foulk on his podcast “The Ag View Pitch” for this week’s market outlook. Jody hits on some major points, including harvest, basis, the upcoming USDA stocks report, and storage decisions that need to be made.
Jody makes the point of discussing what the cash market has been telling us vs. what the futures market and USDA are. Basis has been historically strong while the USDA has not had drastically tight balance sheets showing us some disconnect. Should we expect this week’s report to lower ending stocks as the cash market would hint at?
A harvest update from what Jody and Shay are hearing from their people, both agree that there were many unknown/under-reported issues early in the year that we may be seeing played out combined with the dry and hot finish.
The basis discussion starts with ethanol and how the plants are affecting many different commodities. Currently, margins for ethanol allow them to have a better basis, which forces elevators to do the same to remain competitive.
Should you store soybeans or corn this year? Jody and Shay dive into the margins and spread in the futures markets and basic considerations. No matter what you decide, allowing yourself the opportunity to still participate in the market via futures and options will allow you to not miss out on upside possibilities.
Jody has some final thoughts on the oats market that he leaves us with and what it could mean for the corn and grain markets in countries with major oats markets.
