Category: Podcast

23 Oct 2025

Harvest, Hedging, and History: Navigating Agricultural Markets from Grain Elevators to Futures Contracts

In this episode of The Hedged Edge, hosts Jeff Eizenberg and Ben Hetzel dive deep into the heart of agricultural markets with special guest Fred Seamon from CME Group. As harvest challenges mount with record-breaking rainfall across the Midwest, the conversation spans centuries of market innovation—from the early days of Chicago’s grain trade to cutting-edge futures contracts. Fred shares fascinating insights into the historical development of commodity exchanges, explaining how farmers went from local merchants to global market participants.

The discussion explores critical topics including harvest logistics, railroad transportation, the evolving role of the USDA, and emerging market tools like the new fertilizer futures contract. Listeners will gain a rich understanding of how technological advances and market innovations continue to transform risk management for producers. Whether you’re a farmer, trader, or agricultural enthusiast, this episode offers a comprehensive look at the complex ecosystem of agricultural markets, blending historical perspective with forward-looking analysis.

Packed with expert commentary, practical insights, and a touch of humor, this episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricate world of commodity trading and agricultural economics.

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Listen on the radio at KNDC Radio https://www.kndcradio.com/

and KBJM Radio https://kbjm.com/

 

Check out the complete Transcript from our latest podcast below:

Harvest, Hedging, and History: Navigating Agricultural Markets from Grain Elevators to Futures Contracts

Jeff Eizenberg  00:57

Welcome to the next episode of The hedged edge. I’m your host, Jeff Eisenberg, and I’m here with my co host, Ben Hetzel. Ben, it’s almost big game season, and we’re talking waterfowl. What’s been going on? You get out any hunting yet?

 

Ben Hetzel  01:12

No, I haven’t. My my boys like to shoot some birds. I don’t mind going out a little bit. I much prefer to shoot the clay version, because I don’t know, I just, for some reason, I’ve always kind of grown up with the idea that if you’re gonna hunt

 

Speaker 1  01:28

wildlife, you have to be willing to eat the wild game that you hunt.

 

Ben Hetzel  01:33

And I’ve never been a real big fan of game bird, so I didn’t, we didn’t shoot a lot of them when I was a kid. So, but my boys like to hunt, and it’s a lot of our family hunts, so it’s, it’s just good to get out. But yeah, we’re coming up on, there’s, there’s tons of people out there along the roads, and sometimes not the safest practices going on with vehicles on these country roads. But definitely got bird season going on and and big games coming right around the corner, and that’s kind of what we do. We we enjoy that a little more, I’d say. So we’re excited.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:12

That’s good. Now, with all the weather we’ve had all the wet, rain and whatnot, that’s good for birds. Yeah,

 

Ben Hetzel  02:19

I mean, it’s, probably all right. In general, it’s good to have moisture versus drought, obviously, and it’s been crazy. I’d say this year has got to be right up there with a record for a lot of places. I hear producers talk across the trade area that they are at record levels. And when you have thunderstorms, they vary and that sort of thing. But it’s been an unbelievably wet year for this trade area, Southwest, North Dakota, Northwest South Dakota. I seen a visual on kind of the percentile, and we’re at like 150% to normal, is what our little area of the world showed, particularly right around where I live, near London, and so yeah, it’s, it’s good, but yet challenging at times. Harvest is slow to come off. These row crops are ready in a lot of areas, and harvest is definitely moving forward, but we see fields that are ready to be cut, fields that are cut. So it’s, we’re in the midst, and I know a lot of guys are anxious to get get everything out of those fields, especially when you got you know, we’ve had some high winds, 60 mile an hour us, and so guys are nervous about some of these row crops starting fall down or whatever it is. But again, the wildlife sure enjoy that cover. So more harvest that gets done makes it easier on the deer and antelope hunters, but it’s that season. Yep.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  03:52

And speaking of harvest, where, where are we in the process now, from the elevators perspective, you guys filling up, starting to put up any grain piles? What’s it look like as you’re driving around?

 

Ben Hetzel  04:04

I don’t see too many piles. You know, out here, we do a lot of grain bagging, past how that’s managed. Wildlife can be a challenge, especially in a wet year. No, you were curious of how that all kind of works. But for the most part, the bags are fine, unless wildlife get on them and start popping holes in them and then have some serious problems. But a lot of people manage them real close. Now, you know, there’s been some train wrecks on bags, but, yeah, it’s, there’s a there’s a fair amount of bags around, and guys were moving a little bit of small grain. A lot of canola has been moved. So I think there’s places to go with some of this row crop harvest, but we’re getting pressure all the time to continue to make space, pretty hard to keep the flax and the peas and the canola and the wheat, all that stuff moving because they want to try to market their corn and. And some fires as well. And so it’s been a real battle. Railroads kind of slipped a little bit. It’s gotten a little bit late on placements, so that’s a challenge as well. But it hadn’t been too bad, and I wouldn’t say we’re way behind. You know, seasonally, it’s not uncommon to expect some delays, but it’s it’s starting to show up a little bit more now, as corn harvest is ramping up in the east and and on the railroads defense, this soybean crop didn’t move like normal it was a non traditional flow for them, and so that they actually, I think, adjusted about as well as you could ever expect a large organization to shift their assets, and fortunately, it’s a smooth move to the Gulf. It’s not quite as smooth for us up here as going to the P and W, but that flow isn’t a bad flow, and so the railroad can do it fairly efficiently. And so that’s a positive. Unlike the Mexico market, where we can bottleneck the border and some of that stuff, and there is, there’s some congestion going on there. We’re hearing trains are getting held up across the border, slow to come back out, and so that is affecting some of this. But that’s just a volume issue, which is good. I mean, Mexico has been a great trade partner. We’ve talked about it on our podcast. People that tuned in to one of our earlier shows learned a lot about what’s going on with US and Mexico, and I think that’s key going forward still. But, you know, maybe we’ll get into a little bit of it today, on the rest of the world and what’s going on. There’s lots of news this last week that kind of rocked the market. China’s still obviously a big topic. So if

 

Speaker 2  06:52

you want to listen back to this episode or find past episodes of The hedged edge, visit kbjm.com or kndc radio.com under Listen Live and podcast options, or either station’s free mobile app under podcasts.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  07:08

Yeah, that’s a great segue. And yeah, I’m excited here today, we’re going to bring on a special guest that’s got a ton of history and experience in the markets, and take a look back in memory lane and understand what the importance is of the exchange, is how the exchange ultimately helps us to manage risk, and a lot of that comes down to understanding the history and how things flow, how trade flows, and how traders are able to manage some of the things you just talked about, people Bringing more crop to town than possibly in years past. How the rail systems could potentially slow down movement of grain from Southwest North Dakota down through to the Gulf, etc. So with that, we’ll take a minute here and introduce our guests. We have Fred Seaman joining us from the CME Group. Fred is with us, right out of Chicago, been part of the exchange for the last nearly 25 years. So welcome Fred.

 

Fred Seamon  08:08

Thank you, Jeff. Much appreciated. Really glad to be here.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:13

No thanks for jumping on this exciting for me, you and I basically have been involved in Chicago markets about the same amount of time you’re saying 2001 for you, I started out working at the Board of Trade, and in 2000 you know, our paths have kind of meandered, but we’ve never crossed until today. So this is exciting.

 

Fred Seamon  08:35

It’s amazing that we haven’t, but I did. I started in late 2001 and had been teaching at the University of Wyoming, so it was quite a change for me and my wife, but definitely haven’t looked back. It’s been the best job I’ve ever had by far.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:53

Yeah, you can’t beat the exchanges. The history goes back over. I think, I believe, 150 years, you know, the way in which they started out being Chicago, the center of the agricultural world, and the river and the rail all coming in, and now, now today, to be the place where innovation is happening, left and right. You know, the the thing that stands out to me, I think people miss and I always ask farmers that I meet, I ask elevator operators that I meet. Have you been to Chicago and have you seen the exchanges? And unfortunately, they transitioned away in our career, time from the pit traded. But I would love for you to help everyone remember the the training coats, the greens, the yellows, the blues, kind of the vibe that Chicago used to have.

 

Fred Seamon  09:46

I’m so glad that I got to witness peak four before, you know, it started to decline. And you know that did occur during my my tenure at the exchange. I. And, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s all electronic now, but you know that was, we got into a commodity boom in the, you know, early and mid, 2000s and you know, you would get really, really busy days. And I would hear from merchandisers, you know that, you know, they would, it would take some period of time before they would get confirmation on fills. So as efficient as the floor was, and it was extremely efficient, there’s a lot of things the floor did really, really well, but the markets had just grown to a point where, you know, the electronic screen just became, you know, the choice when, when we did start having daytime, electronic trade, the choice of most agricultural traders, and it started to to evolve away from the floor. But, you know, a lot of what happened on that floor is still relevant today. It’s just how we manage, you know, and how people enter and execute trades has changed. That’s all. But the underlying reason for them, the markets are still the same.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  11:10

Yeah, that’s That’s right. It’s a place to discover price and also manage risk. And the reality that the hedging community is what the exchanges were built for. Is so important for people understand it was built for hedgers, the speculators came in to provide liquidity. And today it’s a global marketplace that trades 24, six, effective, yeah. Well,

 

Fred Seamon  11:37

you know, it started as a spot market. If you go back into the 1840s you know what happened is, you know, everyone knows the US started 13 original colonies on the east coast. But as it started to expand westward, it didn’t take farmers long to recognize that they would rather farm ground in places like Ohio and Indiana and Illinois than they would Massachusetts and New York. So agricultural production moved westward, but most of the people were still in the east. So at harvest, you know, you’d have all these farmers bringing all of this grain into the major cities, Chicago, being one of them. And you know, they would try to find a merchant who was willing to buy their grain to, you know, arrange for it to be shipped back to the east where it would be consumed. And you know, some of those merchants were legitimate, some probably not. And you know, the the idea, did all producers get equal treatment? Well, probably not. So the exchange actually started. Well, there’s a few things. You know, the Board of Trade was a an organization that was started to promote commerce in the city of Chicago, and grain trade was one of those things. So, you know, their their first idea was just, let’s have merchant members, and let’s have them congregate in one place, and then, you know, a farmer can come to that one place, the members have been vetted, so, you know, hopefully they’re all legitimate, and something that we take for granted, but was real powerful at the time, was every time there was a transaction, they would post the price, so that the next farmer that came along probably wouldn’t receive the Same price, but would get an idea of the value of what they were, you know, selling, and that was the start of the exchange. It was just a spot market. Need to fall from there, eventually becoming forward contracts, and ultimately futures contracts in the 1860s that didn’t ultimately succeed, but corn, wheat and oak futures all launched on January 2. 1877 have existed continually since. It’s

 

Jeff Eizenberg  14:17

quite the history it is.

 

Ben Hetzel  14:19

It’s really kind of wild when you think about farmers and ranchers moving their goods far as they did. You know, I’ve got my aunt was going through the attic of the farmhouse where my grandparents lived for all my life anyway, and most of my mom and her siblings, but they found boxes of old receipts or tickets from when they would haul calves down to Sioux Falls, South Dakota. And mean to drive that today is a trek. I mean, it’s a six and a half hour drive. And to think back then they loaded their calves up and. The wagons and shipped them down there, or they took them in when the railroad came through, they took them in and put them on the rail and down there and sold them. And it’s just crazy to think of the dollars that they were transacting compared to what we’re transacting today. And of course, was cattle at all time highs. It’s just unbelievable. That journey that them, people went on to move that grain or those cattle was remarkable,

 

Fred Seamon  15:28

absolutely remarkable. And one of the things, Jeff, I think you, you mentioned, was about innovation and the farmers, indeed, the effort that they took to bring grain into the city, and then, you know, you got the railroads and so forth. And that certainly evolved. But, you know, transportation into the major merchandising points. But a couple of the innovations that occurred at the exchange early that we again take for granted, but it just completely revolutionized how grain was traded. Two of them were a system of grades and sampling. There wasn’t a USDA then, so a way to be able to differentiate grain so that it could be commingled in a grain elevator. And the first grain elevator in Chicago was was built in the late 1830s so the ability to commingle grain, and then the idea of receding grain within a facility, so that you could trade grain among multiple parties without it having to move to the multiple parties. It could just sit in one location, and you could just trade ownership of it. And that really revolutionized grain trade. And actually the center of grain trade in the Midwest. US moved from St Louis to Chicago because of those, those innovations, I

 

Jeff Eizenberg  17:08

think that’s really important for people to understand, is that the exchange has continued to evolve to support the farming community. It’s something that has been exciting the whole way through that, the point then became the delivery mechanism, right? Because that, I also believe is important to have multiple delivery points, of which the grade and quality is standardized. Was that the exchange that drove that? Or how did that come about?

 

Fred Seamon  17:35

They did and of course, there’s some great stories of shenanigans that went on along with that. But, yeah, a system of grades and a system of grading as well. But as you can imagine, when you know the Registrar of the exchange, the person that’s signing their checks, is a member of the change that also runs a grain elevator at the same time. There could be, from time to time, pressure on that exchange staff member to, you know, look one way or another when it came to grading grain. So at some point, the state of Illinois stepped in and said, enough of the shenanigans. We’re taking over. And those processes have existed at the government level, rather than the exchange level, for most of our existence. But did start at the exchange that’s

 

Ben Hetzel  18:39

kind of wild, because you’re talking like 1830 in the USDA started 1860 or Yeah?

 

Fred Seamon  18:47

Is that? Yeah? I think, I think that’s right. And it’s interesting. It was the 1860s when the state of Illinois took over inspection. So that was part of the learning process as things move from exchange regulated to state regulation and making it sound like the board was the Wild West. In some ways it was. But what they did and how, you know, they brought about organized trade. It definitely was a positive. You just anytime you have human beings and trade, there’s always going to be those few that are going to be looking for ways to benefit. So there definitely were some shenanigans.

 

Speaker 2  19:40

Want more agricultural market expertise. Listen to full episodes of the hedge edge podcast wherever you get your podcasts, or visit RCM, ag services.com get the complete market analysis and strategies you need to succeed.

 

Ben Hetzel  19:57

You can a wild west. Jeff, you’re I know you’re. Dying to jump on this. We have no government. USDA is not giving out reports.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  20:05

That’s right, that’s right. Ben, and that’s the part that he’s mentioned, the USDA didn’t exist back when the exchange started. The USDA effectively doesn’t exist today, because we don’t have a government operationally. And so you start to ask yourselves, the question is, how are we going to advance the needs that we have today for information without the USDA? And I’m going to go ahead and pose the question, do we even need the USDA anymore? After you know the innovation that could potentially happen as a

 

Fred Seamon  20:39

result. As of right now, we do, especially on the livestock side, feeder cattle is settled to our feeder cattle index, which is all based on USDA reported feeder cattle sales in the country and direct reports. We also use USDA reports for doing differentials in live cattle deliveries and lean hogs and pork cut out is all under mandatory price reporting. So one of the big things when you see a government shutdown coming, you know we always want to know is, is AMS market reporting going to be affected or not? And some of this, the shutdowns, they’ve been considered non essential, and those reports didn’t come out, and the exchange had nothing to to settle against. And other times they were deemed essential, and the reports continued to flow. Luckily, this time, the reports continued to flow at this point, so we haven’t had an adverse effect. And then on the grain side, you know, just having USDA price reporting adds additional trans transparency in the countryside relative to Chicago. So I think, you know, that’s a benefit to all. But, yeah, I mean that it’s we still rely pretty heavily on USDA, whether it’s for livestock settlements or for transparency when it comes to grains and oil seeds, and I should mention dairy too, that all is USDA based reporting as well. So we’d hate to see USDA go

 

Jeff Eizenberg  22:37

anywhere. Okay, so we’ll give them a break. They need to exist. Let’s get this government shut down, taken care of, and get these people back to work. Shifting gears a little bit, though, but similar topic, I do want to ask the question is from a research perspective, and as you start to think forward about news and information, you know, we’re having so many new private companies that have entered the market. We have private companies like stone X and many others that have existed over the years, and new ones are entering the marketplace for research yield updates, and we’re getting information from China and from Brazil, and you get all these questions of, How reliable is that data? How reliable is our own data? Are we going to eventually transition to a spot, kind of like when you and I were at the exchanges and the pit trade had existed, it was kind of slow. You mentioned it. People didn’t always get reported their trades in a timely manner to now it’s microseconds. Do you feel that perhaps, maybe even this government shutdown accelerates this but that we get to a point where the information is more real time and we rely on, call it an exchange of information, to truly understand where we are with yields and stocks and other things like that. Oh, I

 

Fred Seamon  24:04

feel for certain that we’re going to see incredible amounts of change going forward. The technology is just improving every day, right? And satellites, cameras, the I’m not one of these people that, oh my god, AI is going to replace people. I don’t believe that, but I think AI is going to be a good kind of first step for analyzing all of these data, and then people will ultimately, but it’ll be a massive amount of data that will come in, and the AI will make it manageable for a person to evaluate. So I think, yes, we will continue to see evolution, both in private companies, but also, I think at the USDA as well. We were just at an event at West Texas and a live cattle event. And, you know, some of the interesting things that they’re working on from that front. So I think there will be that, that evolution, and you will see a lot more data available in more real time or near real time, as we go forward. And that’s important. You know, one of my jobs at the exchange is new agricultural products. You know, me and my team are responsible for designing new agricultural futures contracts. And, you know, back in the floor days, and historically, that always meant physically delivered, right, you know, and that’s still the gold standard, don’t get me wrong. But bringing a physically delivered contract to market, you know, designing a delivery mechanism, getting firm signed up for, you know, participating in that. And, you know, it takes a lot of time and a lot of effort to do that, so the cost to bring a physically delivered contract to market is pretty high. So, you know, you’ve got to have, and again, it’s the gold standard. You would still do those, but you’ve got to have a lot of really strong supporting economics for the exchange to make that investment. But you have a lot of these, you know, firms, USDA data, but also, you know, price reporting agencies that are assessing, not just reporting markets, but assessing markets. And one of the areas that you know, we’ve had growth is the ability to bring cash settled contracts, based on these assessments, to market, and they’re a lot cheaper to bring to market. So things that historically probably would have never seen the light of day of a futures contract. The calculus is different just because the cost and the effort to bringing it is is there. So you know, that’s another area where we see a lot of evolution.

 

Speaker 2  27:10

If you’re enjoying today’s show, check us out on Facebook. Just search RCM, ag services for market updates and tips. Find us on Facebook today.

 

Ben Hetzel  27:22

Yeah, and I think one, one to call out that I recently learned about is the new fertilizer contract, the 10 ton, yeah, you know, I think that could be valuable. And there’s tons of arguments about size and and what the perfect fit would be, and is it more of a producer contract, or can commercials utilize it effectively and but I think it speaks to the innovation and some of what you’ve you’ve touched on today, and I think part of the challenges is promoting it and getting it utilized so that there’s plenty of liquidity and and and again, being cash settled makes that a more appealing situation.

 

Fred Seamon  28:05

Yeah, that’s been, you know, we’ve had fertilizer contracts for a long period of time, but they’re more wholesale directed contracts. And the idea was, hey, you know, could we package one of these and aim it more at the producer level. And that’s where the 10 ton came from. You know, the 10 ton urea. Let’s get some market makers involved. So there’s a good two sided market. And, you know, let’s put it out there. You know, that’s a major cost point for so many producers. And you know, a real inability to, you know, other than forward contracting. And then, you know, the elevators being able to have a tool to use. What could make better forward contracts to producers as well. But why can’t we do something at the producer level with respect to fertilizer, and this has been our first test case, and, you know, we’ve seen some uptake to it, so we’re still optimistic about it, but, you know, an idea that can certainly expand, you know, as we go kind of down from the wholesale level To the actual producer level with respect to fertilizer,

 

Ben Hetzel  29:22

I think every producer that that I deal with out here really recognizes the benefit of having a futures backed commodity with, you know, contract, because you take sunflowers and peas and and some of those type of products. A lot of the pulses are all the pulses, basically. And, you know, sunflowers can be really challenging to market, because there’s really no that gold standard you talked about having that backed by those contracts and and so thin markets. Obviously, the volumes dictate what, what? Makes sense to bring to market, but I think we all can really step back and realize that there’s a ton of value in and what’s what your company, the CME Group, and others, are doing, to bring these contracts to to the producers, or to the commercial side, or investors. And so I really, I think that’s a take home for people listening. Is this, this is a valid tool, and it’s been around a long, long time. It’s, it’s battle tested, it’s, it’s evolving still, and, and those are all great things, but really appreciate your insights. That’s that’s been fun to listen to that history, too.

 

Fred Seamon  30:40

Oh yeah, no, glad to share those things. And you know, that’s, that’s why we’re here. And, you know, I spend I’ve been here, you know, coming up on 24 years, and one of the big things for me is, you know, just because something didn’t work in the past does not mean that it won’t work in the future. So, you know, at least I, and I encourage my team to also not put on blinders. And, you know, it’s okay to evaluate something that maybe we tried, you know, a decade ago, 15 years ago, maybe the timings right now. So we work really hard to be non biased, and we are definitely customer driven, that’s for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  31:29

Yeah, and we appreciate that tremendously, Fred. And you know the people that are listening here today, you recall the reason we brought this podcast on the radio and into the community and are taking taking your time and creating your time to listen is we want to focus on the importance of risk management and around producing crops, whether it’s corn, soybeans, wheat, you name it, trying to focus on helping people make the right decisions, forward thinking on how they actually are planning to sell and market their grain. And none of that exists without the exchange. And the exchange, again, the word innovation and willingness to continue to support the local communities. So for those that are that are listening, if you, if you have ideas of products that you’d love to hear or see. You can call us, you can text us, you can email us, and we’ll we’ll send it right out to chain to Fred. So the other way is obviously check in with Ben over at Scranton equity Co Op, and you know he’ll be able to explain all the different products that they use today, futures, options, some of the OTC solutions. And again, reminder, as we wrap up harvest and head out into the cold months that none of us want to talk about, that you still have grain in the bins, and we need to figure out the best timing to sell that, of course, but always think there’s opportunities to hedge manage risk and just put an offer out there to see if you can get something done. So thanks again to everyone who’s been listening and sharing their inputs, and thanks to Fred and Ben dear for all your time. It’s been a great it’s been a great week.

 

Ben Hetzel  33:19

Yeah, thanks Jeff, and thanks again, Fred, for bringing those insights. Good visit.

 

Fred Seamon  33:24

Yeah, thanks guys. Appreciate you having me.

16 Oct 2025

Global Fertilizer Markets: Supply Challenges, Trade Dynamics, and Agricultural Pricing Strategies

Dive into the complex world of agricultural markets with Jeff Eizenberg and Ben Hetzel as they explore current corn and soybean pricing trends, harvest dynamics, and the global fertilizer landscape. Special guest Jon Berglund from Prairie Land AG provides expert insights into international supply chains, trade challenges, and the factors driving fertilizer prices. Learn about the intricate relationships between global politics, agricultural production, and market strategies that impact farmers today.

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Listen on the radio at KNDC Radio  and KBJM Radio 

Check out the complete Transcript from our latest podcast below:

Global Fertilizer Markets: Supply Challenges, Trade Dynamics, and Agricultural Pricing Strategies

Jeff Eizenberg  00:59

Welcome back to The Hedged Edge. I’m your host, Jeff Eisenberg, and I’m here with my co host, Ben Hetzel. Ben, we’re back for Episode Five. The radio’s been good to us. Can’t thank KBJM enough and KNDC for having us. I’ve been new to the radio, but you’re an old golden throat. You had to

 

Ben Hetzel  01:18

throw that in there. No to be on again. Yeah, I spent a little time on the radio and doing broadcast some sports events and stuff that happened around the area. So it’s, it’s always fun to talk to the airwaves. And, and this is kind of special, because it’s sorted and, and we can, we can actually put the image out there so people can see almost like watching the news anchors on TV. So it’s That’s

 

Jeff Eizenberg  01:45

right. And boy, did we look good. So the quick update here for today’s episode, for listeners, we’re going to be jumping into an interesting situation that we’ve observed in corn and soybeans. Really the reality that prices this year are exactly the same as last, believe it or not, and even though we’ve got higher supply, the in record in record crops, it’s it’s still an interesting phenomenon. We’re going to dive in a little bit more, into what’s been going on in storage, how basis is looking. And then later on, we’re going to be joined by John Berglund from prairie land AG, where we’re going to deal with a discussion around high input prices, tariffs and the opportunities coming in fertilizer for 2026 so Ben with that. Let’s hop right in. We’ve talked on how harvest is progressing. It seems to be quite strong. What are you seeing out there in terms of grain coming to town and our storage capacity? Are we? Are we filling up

 

Ben Hetzel  02:53

a lot in our area? It’s it’s still a little early, some of the frozen corn, and then more dry areas are starting to harvest a little bit, so we haven’t really seen harvest kick up too rapidly. The soybeans are definitely off out here, for the most part. Interesting thing to note about soybeans, I heard a little tidbit the other day that the beans aren’t coming to town as fast as they anticipated, so you’re seeing a little basis shift, maybe trying to entice some some beans to still come into the facilities to get shipped out. I think the industry did a nice job of reacting to China not coming in and buying and so we we found some homes, and the idea was that the farmer had nowhere to go with this stuff, so they were just gonna blast it into the pipe and then probably put some serious strain on the system. But in maybe there’s areas that that did happen, but there’s other areas that it seems like they’re they’re needing some some beans to still blow into the facilities to ship out for export, or maybe a processing plant that didn’t fill up as fast as they anticipated. So that’s still remains to be seen finishes, but notably, the basis is doing what it needs to do there, and it should reward the farmers that stored this, this crop of soybeans, to some degree you can see the carries built in, not probably as much on the Crushers as maybe you see in the facilities that have sales on export wise. So a lot to kind of hold and wait and see what goes on there. But I still encourage producers take advantage of carries. Look into the future when the slots make sense for you logistically to move these products, whether it’s meat, soybeans, corn, whatever it is, you know the space. If you have it on the farm and you put it in there, that doesn’t mean it has to stay there. If there’s an opportunity. That a facility near you wants grain, and they’re showing it in their basis. It’s always good to reward basis.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  05:06

Glad you brought up that basis. And the narrowing a bit, particularly in beans, was talking with the team out in Minnesota earlier this week, and then also got feedback from more of the Midwest that seem quite a bit of narrowing on the river. Maybe there’s a river trade going on where there’s a more flow heading down south to New Orleans. Bases seem to be firm in the cities compared to even the processing plants. It’ll be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

 

Ben Hetzel  05:40

The other thing that I don’t know what you guys are hearing out further east, but you’re quite a ways on the other side of this. We’re almost both on the fringes, if you think about it, you’re kind of still in the heart of major horn and bean country. But you don’t have to go far east, you, I don’t think, and you get out of it, right?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:00

Oh, yeah, you get over to Pittsburgh, the Ohio, Pennsylvania border, and it’s, it’s out there. The grain is out there, all the way to actually Delaware, if you, if you never made that drive, I was in Delaware State earlier this summer, and couldn’t believe the amount of agriculture that is right there. So it’s all the way out, but it definitely gets more congested and less the heart of it all.

 

Ben Hetzel  06:26

Yeah, so anyway, depending on where you’re at in the geographies, it grows soybeans, one thing worth noting that I heard as well is the production isn’t quite what they thought it was in a lot of areas.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:43

Oh, yeah, yeah, that’s right. And every day now we’re wondering what the government’s going to put out, because we don’t have any reports with it being shut down, but we’re getting private estimates that are, it’s called ratcheting down the expectations, and seems to be nationwide, but also we’re having to rely on localization of these reports and information flow. And it actually kind of begs the question, if you think about it, do we even need the government reports if we get efficient at reporting from private estimators? But we’ll see that one for AI. Maybe AI will be able to tackle that one for

 

Ben Hetzel  07:24

  1. I’m sure. I’m sure it will be. I mean, it’s crazy. What you can get out of that. It wouldn’t be long and grok or somebody like that, like, that’s the one that kind of goes off a Twitter, formally, Twitter now x for some of its Intel. So it’s it could be really interesting.

 

Speaker 1  07:45

If you want to listen back to this episode or find past episodes of The hedged edge, visit kbjm.com or kndc radio.com under Listen Live and podcast options, or either stations free mobile app under podcasts,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:02

so speaking of prices, let’s talk about this historical piece I pulled up. It’s a bit of deja vu where, if I want to just talk on corn for a second, corn prices today are in the range for 25 I’m going to call this a range, being a harvest range, September 1 through today, being more or less a 414, load or 431, high. That’s this year’s harvest range for corn. Let’s we put that as a pin in that. And then we go back one year, 2024, same period, we had a low 386, to high up there in the range of 430 and then one more year back to 2023, to get harvest tipped off at 505, but quickly got back down to 449 so where we sit today versus the past three years? We’re really only talking maybe a 10 or 15 cent difference in the last three years at this time of year. And what I want to talk about is that we have to be aware of the fact that that’s maybe the new norm and the reality that we face. We’re going to have John to tell us about fertilizer prices and how all all that impacts our price. But people continue to hang on to the idea that they need, or have to have $5 corn in order to make money. Well, we’ve talked about it on these this podcast a number of times. Let’s assume that we can’t get $5 what do we do with these ranges? What do we do in relation to how do we take advantage of basis and other opportunities to price this and again, wanted to put this data out there for people to think about.

 

Ben Hetzel  09:50

Yeah, that’s a very good not only discussion, but fact that, you know, we’re presented with a whole different set of circumstances. This year in this crop, then we work in those to some degree, obviously, with the parapher and big production, whether that ratchets down on corn, you know, that remains to be seen. I think, I think we’ll see that tighten up some. But the the big thing to keep in mind is, because there wasn’t a bean program. We have had a bigger push for exports, particularly off the P and W, but I would say in general, exports out of the US, on wheat and corn. So you you’re probably seeing a wider basis at times here at harvest than what we’ve seen before. But we may not narrow that up as much as we did last year on those two particular drops. Beans are way wide, right? I mean, bean basis is wider than normal, and looks to stay there. It is narrowing some. And you know certain pockets for sure, but you know wheat, at this same time period, last year, we probably started narrowing quite a little bit. We’ve got 40 cents to go to get to where the median basis was through the winter months on wheat and corn, probably 20. So it’ll be interesting to see if that happens. But again, to the your point, we have to realize that we may not see the same thing we seen last year, but there’s ways of taking advantage of carries if they’re out there. So if you do have an opportunity to sell wheat for Jan, Feb, March, getting into those seasonally tighter basis windows with better futures than we have on the front end. There’s ways of taking advantage of that, and we need to leverage those tools. You know, there’s a multitude of them, and we’ve covered a lot of them numerous times on this podcast. And so they’re the key is leverage your your team. We’ve talked about that you’ve got people in your operation that are helping you market grain or procure procuring your grain, whether it’s a processor or an elevator broker, reach out, call us, leverage those tools, and it’ll set you up for success, and probably better than break even, at least. You know, there’s a lot of people wondering how much they’re going to lose on some of these crops, but there’s, there’s been some windows where we could have taken advantage of some profits.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:32

I think, yeah, it’s going to be interesting here as we move forward, how people handle these adverse these adversities. And I think that, like you said, leveraging the team around is going to be important. And speaking of team, we’re going to go ahead and bring John burgland on, John with prairie land. AG, John, are you

 

Jon Berglund  12:53

with us? Yes. Thanks. Jeff Ben, absolutely.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:57

Thanks for jumping on this afternoon. It’s exciting to have you. We’re getting into the prepay period of time for fertilizer. We’ve run through a gamut of scenarios where people pointing fingers at fertilizer companies for jacking up the prices. And the reality is that it’s nothing new. Inflation is real. It’s here. It’s impacting the agricultural sector, possibly more than others, but there’s ways to take advantage of these market conditions. There’s information that people need in order to be successful. And you know that’s that’s why we have you on here. So we’re excited to hear, hear from you, if you wouldn’t mind, John, give us a quick background. Tell us a bit more about your company, your experience.

 

Jon Berglund  13:47

Well, I grew up farming and ranching, and from there, did a little stint as a farm manager, and then had a retail career for a while, where I was an agronomist, then a location manager, bounced around there a little bit, and then did wholesale for probably, oh 1515, years or so, wholesale fertilizer trade, and then landed here with prairie land. AG, at prairie land, AG, we, you know, it’s a company that was started little over 30 years ago, based around supporting independent co ops and privately owned retailers and helping them be successful and sustainable in a space where there’s a lot of large national companies helping them compete on a daily basis,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  14:53

I understand that you’re kind of a co op of co ops. Is that a good way to describe it? Yeah,

 

Jon Berglund  14:59

  1. Say that, you know, we’re mostly based around crop procurement, but we also help out with crop protection, specialty products, other Nutritionals. Since we’re here for our members, we sometimes help out with things kind of outside our main scope of human resources, solutions, insurance, grower, finance and alternative risk management strategies.

 

Ben Hetzel  15:31

Well, I’m really excited to have John on here. We’ve got a history that goes way back, even in some some areas that we won’t cover on the podcast, but he and I have some common ground and and I’ve spent some time overseas on some common ground. And so it’s really, really fun to have you on here, John, and I’m, I’m excited to get into this topic today, on on fertilizer, as it relates to trade tariffs and and some of the other things going on in the economy. So really appreciate you taking time to do this today.

 

Jon Berglund  16:05

Thank you, Ben,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  16:07

let’s jump in, John, thanks again for joining us. The big question out there people want to know, yeah,

 

Jon Berglund  16:13

definitely at the end of the day, when you look at the grain economics versus the fertilizer economics, it doesn’t make sense from a demand standpoint. And sometimes we get kind of focused on the demand side, because that’s where most of us are at. But this is a very, very supply driven market right now, and supplies are very tight. There’s a lot of things going on in the world today, or, you know, whether it be domestic politics, World Politics, war tariffs, there’s a lot going on out there.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  16:51

Yeah, it’s a crazy world, no doubt. And what’s your sense from the farmer’s side is there a ceiling in terms of how much they plan to purchase, in terms of fertilizer and nitrogen in order to support these crops. Boy, I,

 

Jon Berglund  17:08

I don’t know, Ben, would you want to speak to that one? I’m a little bit more removed from the grower, where I deal mostly with dealers. Yes.

 

Ben Hetzel  17:18

So 10, in general, they’re the price of fertilizer does kind of cap out at some point, and the farmer just kind of locks up. They’re gonna, everybody’s gonna approach that a little bit different based on how the economies of their farm are, what what crops they’re raising. But you know, traditionally, when when phosphorus gets real high, that’s one that they tend to cut back at times. But it’s also a hard one to cut back, because it can really cripple you for a while. So it’s another interesting discussion that is hard to pin down. We We think every year that the prices are high enough to where farmers are going to back off their nitrogen and and that’s usually the first one that they’ll back away from. But this last year, phosphorus was pretty high, and we thought really struggle to sell the the tonnage that we usually sell here at the co op. What we saw is, is producers stood in there and kind of gambled a little bit that production was going to take care of the price a little bit and and produce their way through it. But there is a point in which they do, and some, some did cut back, and we have seen it, but it’s, I think that’s a harder thing for them to do than than what the industry even realizes that at this stage. I mean, because the farmers are they’re trying to do their absolute best to raise the crop that they need to raise to make the farm profitable. And they know, if they don’t put the fertilizer out there, they they shoot themselves right in the foot out the gate and not, you know, some might skimp on going in right away with it and plan to come back over the top. That’s pretty common. But even then, if they get the rain, they’re going to do it.

 

Speaker 1  19:17

Want more agricultural market expertise. Listen to full episodes of the hedge edge podcast, wherever you get your podcasts, or visit RCM, ag services.com get the complete market analysis and strategies you need to succeed.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  19:34

So John, let’s pull back a bit. 30,000 foot view you mentioned supply issues being the number one driver of price against the fertilizer. Can you just give us a sense where is all the fertilizer coming in from? There’s been some discussion that fertilizer has been left off the sanctions list from Russia, that in fact, the US does not sanction for. Fertilizer, and then purchases a large amount, still from Russia, despite the sanctions that we have against them and the pressure we’re putting against other world economies to not utilize or buy their products, can you just speak to the global supply of where we’re getting our fertilizer? Yeah,

 

Jon Berglund  20:19

global supply on all products has been fairly tight here, with one exception, but even looking here domestically, and even further than domestically, North America, most, not all of the Canadian manufacturers of urea had turnarounds this past year, either summer or fall. Here at the end of October, I think most of those will be back up and running again locally here in North Dakota, the one fertilizer manufacturer we have here also had a turnaround. But across the US, there was a lot of plants on turnaround. You add that to kind of what we’ve seen out of India and China. India has always been a big buyer of urea on the world market. In previous years, they’ve been declining as they build more domestic production. This past year, we’ve seen them back to buy more. Speculated that it’s possible they’re idling some of their older production China. They’re usually on a major, major exporter of urea. They’re usually into the tune of five to five and a half million metric tons of exports a year. This past year, suddenly, without warning, in 2024 they cut back to under 300,000 ton. So that was millions of tons of urea, just off the table worldwide,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  22:07

you know. And then you start just to the US that was a

 

Jon Berglund  22:10

global, that was a global, global event for sure, you know. And then you look politics, you know, this past year, we started playing around with tariffs, and there was a lot of uncertainty as to what those were. If you put yourself in the hand, in the shoes of a trader that’s buying urea on the world market, importing it to the US, they’re really, really not going to want to deal in an uncertain environment, you know? It’d be kind of like sitting at a high stakes poker game and having somebody change the rules after your money’s already on the table. There’s not a lot of people that would be excited to sign up for that, you know, and then on top of that, had countervailing duties that are based court judgments on trade practices that levy basically fines against certain countries that have different trade practices than us. Those were put on by the US Justice Department. And then flip side of that, you know, there’s wars all over the world right now, you look at Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are both major nitrogen producing countries, you know, and then we got Israel and Hamas. There’s some hope that that’s starting to straighten itself out, but that has multiple repercussions, both through the fact that Israel is a exporter of potash, but also, Israel’s war has been bigger than just the war with Hamas. They’ve also somewhat been at war with Iran. Iran’s proxies. You know, if you look at the Houthi rebels, their main the main thing that is they like to go out and commit acts of terror that shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts a lot of fertilizer movement.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:32

Sounds to me, John, you need to get a degree in international politics to have your job.

 

Jon Berglund  24:38

You know, at the end of the day when it’s just simple supply and demand. It’s pretty easy, but when you add the human factor and foreign entities involved, you kind of need a flow chart any given day right now to figure out, figure out what’s going to land where you.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  25:01

Yeah, it makes sense. And then do you see the shift happening where there’s going to be more production North America? I know Canada is a large supplier that you know we’re not going to have to rely as heavily on some of these foreign nations. Or maybe, are there other resource locations, like Africa, or other places where we can go to source our potash and urea.

 

Jon Berglund  25:25

So we actually have added a lot of us production. There’s been a lot of production added, especially as fracking came along. It freed up a whole lot of natural gas, which is critical for making urea. So both Canada’s had a lot of brownfield projects where they’ve taken old production and added on to it. Here domestically, we’ve also done some of those add ons, but we’ve also had a few Greenfield add ons as well, to where we have added quite a bit of domestic production. We probably don’t want to be at the place where the market’s high enough to demand more build out here in the US right now, the current break even for an investment to really be worth it on nitrogen, I might be off a little bit on these figures, but I’d say 550, to $600 a ton would probably drive more More Urea build outs. It’s not a short term thing to go into to add more production. How

 

Jeff Eizenberg  26:47

about storage? We’ve talked about storage with grain. Is storage with these fertilizer products also expanding storage so that we have a larger stocks.

 

Jon Berglund  27:01

Storage is expensive, so our current supply chain, a lot of the storage ends up being at a local level. You know, Scranton is a good example of that. Not too long ago, Ben and the crew did take on building another barn. I know Phil helped them out a lot with that in the building, but a lot of that’s going to be more local than it is going to be large scale, wholesale and manufacturing.

 

Ben Hetzel  27:39

You touched on the trade flow issues and some of the supply concern, going back to to the Russia conversation, shed a little light, but I just really want to hit home that we are still buying product out of Russia. We are absolutely and that that product, you know, as far as I know, Canada is not buying directly from Russia, but that product could potentially migrate through the US.

 

Jon Berglund  28:13

I’m not sure about the migration through the US. I do know that Canada is not directly buying Russian and is a little bit adverse to buying Russian product. There are some points at which product gets commingled, but the US, it’s kind of one of those things that we want to keep under our hats a little bit we haven’t talked about a lot, but right now, Russia’s pretty much the only source that I’m aware of that isn’t tariffed, currently coming into the US for urea and UAM. So a lot of our nitrogen today is coming in from Russia.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  28:58

Yeah, I’m looking up here using a quick, quick chat GPT search. It does source a reliable Illinois Farm doc, document stating from February that the about 15% of the potash is sourced from Belarus and Russia.

 

Jon Berglund  29:18

Yeah, they’d be, they’d be a large manufacturer there.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  29:24

It also goes on to say that there’s quite a bit of additional phosphorus coming in, roughly in 24 could have been as 13 to 14% and so that is significant.

 

Jon Berglund  29:39

So there are sanctions against the phosphate coming in from Russia, I believe, and due to our proximity to Canada and then being the largest manufacturer of potash, most of our potash is going to come from there. But the market’s the market. No one’s bigger than the market. So when, when we see other people not buying cert potash from certain places, it does influence things as we shuffle the deck on trade flows.

 

Speaker 1  30:15

If you’re enjoying today’s show, check us out on Facebook. Just search RCM ag services for market updates and tips find us on Facebook today,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  30:26

shifted gears a little bit, but keeping with the international theme, I had an exciting meeting down in Miami a couple of weeks ago. Met with a large company, Brazilian production influence and global export purchasing programs out of out of Brazil. And the feedback I got was immediate, that Brazil is alive and real. Everything down there is massive. What is your sense in terms of how the technology and the resources that we’ve put together out of the US have found their way offshore down into Brazil to effectively support them to be our biggest competitor.

 

Jon Berglund  31:10

Would you be talking on the fertilizer site there?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  31:13

Of course, it applies to all elements of the agricultural chain, seed, machinery, but specifically to fertilizer.

 

Jon Berglund  31:22

Yes, I would say North America and South America do compete with each other for vessels, barges, so on and so forth. So yes, we are. We are somewhat competing with South America at times, on fertilizer, but the infrastructure within the US is far better. We’re a better place to clear product quickly. New Orleans, Louisiana or Nola is probably one of the quickest ports, as far as being able to offload a vessel and move tons, the infrastructure isn’t as good in South America.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:08

I’m really glad that you mentioned that, John, to be honest with you, it’s a piece I don’t think many people are talking about. They talk about how Brazil and South America are our biggest competitors, but they only are talking about for the demand of the end product, but what you’re talking about is the front end side of that product, which is the fertilizer. And if they’re competing and growing as fast as they have been, there’s no question in my mind that they’re also helping be responsible for the fact that these fertilizer prices are maintaining at higher prices if there’s more global demand, The Economist than me tells me that the prices continue to be higher,

 

Jon Berglund  32:49

absolutely

 

Ben Hetzel  32:53

and especially when you tie in their relationship Brazil, particularly to China, it really gets

 

Jeff Eizenberg  33:00

muddy. Wow, we’re we’re global traders today, guys,

 

Ben Hetzel  33:04

part of the goal with what we’re doing here is getting people like John on this and talking about real concerns or real factors that affect the price of fertilizer, so that they’re not just hearing it from their agronomist. They’re hearing it from somebody that sees it from a different vantage point, more globally, you know, maybe more macro. But you know, it’s there when they speak and and we take that information and pass it on to the growers. Sometimes it maybe isn’t as well received is, you know, for him to speak on this podcast and tell our growers, you know, these are real concerns, and we can’t control any of this locally. And we we have no control over the flow until it gets into the US in terms of tangible product to Southwest, North Dakota or Ohio, or wherever you’re at and so good insights already you know, on what’s going on out there. And I think you know this conversation could go on longer in terms of, you know, even some of the more regional issues and and in particularly the North Dakota, you know, because we’re so far from Nola, we’re, we’re probably one of the furthest points, obviously, to where that product lands. We do have local product being manufactured regionally too. So there’s a lot of factors to consider on why prices are doing what they’re doing and and I just would would ask you, John, is there anything else that that we maybe didn’t cover that’s more regional that maybe helps shed some light on it’s causing urea not to come down and. Relative to porn, because that’s what the biggest thing every every farmer is looking at, is horn has dropped significantly. We talked about it on the last episode. I believe Jeff that when you factor in inflation, inputs are at the high end of the spectrum, and the price of production for the producer, what they’re getting paid is at the low end of the spectrum. So I just thought maybe John should maybe share some final insights on that piece with with our listeners.

 

Jon Berglund  35:31

There are definitely some regional issues as well. I mean, for example, a urea plant has to go down every two years on turnaround. And I wouldn’t even say it’s regional. I’d say it’s a North American issue. There’s only so many people that can come in and do the turnarounds. And the reason for the need for the turnaround is when you have that much heat and expand and contract. Within a fertilizer manufacturing plant, you have certain pipes that they measure how much they stretch in feet, not millimeters, centimeters or inches. So you can imagine, with that much expand and contract, you absolutely have to do plant turnarounds end of the day when we had covid hit, a lot of the people that can come in and do those turnarounds and plants were locked out of those plants, it was only the local employees that were allowed in. So we’ve kind of bunched all of our turnarounds in North America into the same time period now, since then, bright side of that looking forward is it looks like by November, we’ll have a lot of the domestic production up and running. Imports are starting to improve as we find a little bit more stability with the tariff issues. Flip side of that is, if we see a lot of uncertainty with tariff issues come back, we could could see that instability again. So there’s a little bit of a ray of hope there. The other thing that I see as a ray of hope is potash has made the critical minerals list. That gets it around a lot of tariffs, and, you know, paves the way for other nutrients. We’re already starting to work on phosphates with that. The other thing I see is, you know, I’ve always heard the saying The cure for high prices is high prices. You know, you look at this grain versus fertilizer thing, it’s out of whack. You know, it never stays that way for too long. I don’t know anything is going to happen here, but just speculating, you know, throwing, you know, a couple ideas out there, when you look at crop prices low, and you look at fertilizer prices high, and you look at where cattle prices are at, right now, we’ve been on a long trend of taking pasture out of pasture And turning it into crop ground. Does that trend reverse? Do we start seeding more pasture with the high price of cattle? I don’t know. Or do we have, you know, maybe more of the crops that are grown for feed versus world grain? I don’t know, but those are some things that I could possibly see happening that would, you know, help correct the relationship that we have right now between low grain and high fertilizer prices.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  38:54

Well, John from from your mouth to God’s ears, everybody would like to see some lower prices. That’s for sure, on the fertilizer front, but that’s going to be for the market to decide. And I think that you know, as we wrap up here today, the The important thing is to continue to work with your with your seed and chemical companies, to work with your local co ops, to think about what’s coming what’s going to be the next, what the next what the next crop is going to be, what’s going to cost you to manage that crop, what’s going to cost you to handle the inputs and how you can take advantage of forward pricing through prepay, utilizing the co ops and their resources. And we thank you for coming on here today to discuss all of that. And we also thank our listeners. We thank everybody who’s given us great feedback and engaged with us personally in person or over the phone or with text since we came on the air five, six weeks ago. Those. Of you who have connected with us on Facebook and Twitter, you can find us RCM, ag services on both Facebook and Twitter. You can also call us. We’ve got an 800 number available to hear what’s going on with you, how your harvest is coming along, what prices are looking like on your end, how basis looks in your area. You can call us at 88887521108888752110,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  40:28

or stop in talk to Ben over there, at Scranton, at the at the equity, and we’ll see you guys on the next the next time. Thanks, Jeff.

09 Oct 2025

Grain Marketing Survival Guide: Insights from the Field

In this episode of The Hedged Edge podcast, hosts Jeff Eizenberg and Ben Hetzel discuss the current harvest season with guests Lacy Schatz from LJS Insurance Agency and Dwayne Bowman from Dakota Western Bank. They provide insights into harvest conditions across different regions, highlighting challenges like frost and dry weather. Lacey shares updates on crop insurance, including new program benefits for beginning farmers. Dwayne discusses the current interest rate environment and its minimal impact on agricultural operations. The team focuses on marketing strategies, emphasizing the importance of forward pricing, storing grain strategically, and having a comprehensive plan to manage market risks. They also address the mental health challenges farmers may face during difficult economic times and encourage producers to seek support and collaborate with their professional team. The episode offers practical advice for farmers navigating the complex agricultural marketplace, with a strong message of proactive planning and teamwork.

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Episode links: 

Listen on the radio at KNDC Radio  and KBJM Radio 

 

Check out the complete Transcript from our latest podcast below:

Grain Marketing Survival Guide: Insights from the Field

 

Jeff Eizenberg  00:52

Welcome to the next episode of The hedged edge. I’m your host, Jeff Eisenberg, and I’m here with my co host, Ben Hetzel. Ben, last week, we couldn’t record I apologize. That’s that’s on me. I lost my voice.

 

Ben Hetzel  01:06

Yeah, it was a bummer not to get to see you last week. Jeff, so glad we’re able to do this, and looking forward to our discussion today. I think it’ll be really educational. We got two great guests with us. We brought Dwayne Bowman back. He’s president of Dakota western bank and Bowman, well, he sits in Bowman, but he oversees numerous branches. And then we’ve got another guest that joined us today from the crop insurance side, so we’ll intro her in moment. Perfect.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  01:34

Yeah, excited to have the group back and Dwayne, thanks for again, for jumping back on today. Really what we want to do a quick update. We’re well into harvest here, so check in on harvest, but also talk a little bit about the fact that the crop insurance guarantees out there are likely not to pay off big payments, and that’s a reality that farmers have to think about, and everyone has to discuss. And so what are the real decisions that need to be made? What harvest marketing plan do you have and do the farmers in our area have that we can help advise on? Are they going to sell off the combines store until March or July? These are the million dollar questions that we’re going to jump into today. One extra thing we wanted to add here today is so when we’re talking about harvest and updates, we want to hear from you. We’ve talked about hitting us up on Twitter and Facebook let us know what’s happening in your area. So with that, Ben, let’s get a quick update on harvest. How’s things looking from your side?

 

Ben Hetzel  02:29

Now we come out of the small grains harvest here at drug into September, further than normal. It was a long Spring this year due to the moisture in our geography, so it seemed like it took a little longer to get this get this wheat harvest and the canola harvest done, plus some additional rains and and stuff going on during harvest, kind of delayed things for a lot of producers. So that’s pretty well wrapped up seeing some quality concerns in some areas on some of that. But now we’re kind of into the beans. Not as many bean acres out in this geography on the fringe out west here, but they’re rolling through that pretty fast. Quality is up and down as we talked, we froze, so we’ve got areas that definitely seeing some issues there. So it’ll be good to have that discussion with in regards to crop insurance as well. I think some guys have actually started rolling on some corn this this week, some drier regions where it’s a little lighter soil, and guys plant short maturity corn. So there’s a few guys going on corn, and it won’t be long, and we’ll see some sunflowers. They’re getting pretty black. So that’s kind of where we’re at with what’s going on out west here.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  03:46

I gotta mention you, you brought canola up. You dropped a little tidbit the other day when we were talking that you are one of the largest exporters of canola out of North America. Do you want to care to comment on that?

 

Ben Hetzel  04:03

We, as far as we can tell, we are the largest shipper of canola in the US, and that would put us at the top of the export category as well out of the US. So not a lot of us doing that, but it’s pretty cool to be on top.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  04:16

Oh yeah, everybody loves to be on top. That’s great. Well, congratulations.

 

Ben Hetzel  04:20

Thank you. My comment to you was, we’re going after the North American number. That’s a big number because there’s a lot of canola in Canada. So I think it’s here. I think I think we could make our mark.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  04:31

So love it. Well, I’ll give you a quick update. I think most listeners know by now I live in Ohio. Harvest update out here is, it is dry. Everything you hear on the news in the radio, which you read, it is super dry out here, and it’s been that way for for months. Actually, it was the driest August on record. And as I drove around and saw the fields from mid August all the way through Labor Day on through here in October. Um, not much has changed. Dust is in the air, and I expect the yields to be down significantly. So want to be sure to share that from boots on the ground out this way.

 

Ben Hetzel  05:11

Thanks for the update. We’re kind of hearing some of that same stuff that yields maybe are not what people thought in some spots, and just don’t always know boots on the ground, what’s really going on out there. So it’s good to hear.

 

Speaker 1  05:23

If you want to listen back to this episode or find past episodes of The hedged edge, visit kbjm.com or kndc radio.com under Listen Live and podcast options, or either stations, free mobile app under podcasts.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  05:39

Yeah, let’s change gears here a bit and bring in our additional guest. We have Lacey Schatz from LJ Insurance Agency. Lacey, are you? Are you with us? I am. Hi. How are you? Thanks for coming on. Yep, you bet. Well, we’re we’re jumping in. We just went over the harvest update, and want to check in on insurance. So we’re setting price right now for for corn in October, and you’ve already set the price for wheat, you’ve had quite a bit of volatile weather, which is pretty customary. You’ve got hail, tornadoes, freeze. Ben already mentioned, where all these things, where insurance comes into play. So my guess is, you’ve been pretty

 

Lacy Schatz  06:17

busy. We have, yep, that frost created quite a bit of work. But we’re really in kind of a wait and see situation to see what that corn comes in after test weight and things like that

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:27

got it so the freeze mostly affected the corn, and that’s, that’s what your thoughts are.

 

Lacy Schatz  06:31

Yeah, some beans, the flowers, seem to fare pretty well. You know, the bean crop, I think overall, is going to be better than expected from the frost. But the corn, you know, it’s so variable. So from an insurance standpoint, we just kind of have to wait and see what it looks like when they get in

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:45

there. Got it and the hail really hits those beans pretty hard as well.

 

Lacy Schatz  06:51

Yes, yes, we’ve had 14 pages of claims, so you know, from the hail and from the frost. So a lot of damage out there. Crop insurance really did a good job of taking care of the guys with with the hail in particular, just because commodity prices are so low, and crop insurance prices are, as you know, based on futures, so they were actually covered very well for those situations.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  07:13

Got it and your your read on the prices here the Fall Harvest prices versus the yield is that we’re really not looking at a claim for most other other than these acts of God, right?

 

Lacy Schatz  07:28

Yeah, you know, if you’re harvesting, you know, 30 to 35 bushel wheat, for whatever reason, you know those lower harvest prices are kicking in that revenue part of their insurance. But for the most part, yeah, we’re not seeing any claims with a bigger harvest. And we just need some commodity prices to go with it.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  07:45

That’s why we’ve got, we got Ben here to will the markets for us. But in the meantime, you know, there’s, there’s been quite a bit of discussion about the marketing plans that people are needed to think about here moving forward. And you know, insurance is always a part of everyone’s plan. Is there anything new that’s happening insurance wise? You mentioned when we talked offline, the big, beautiful Bill had had some elements to it that ultimately impact insurance. Anything you’d like to share with the listeners?

 

Lacy Schatz  08:19

Yeah, so if you’re a big SCO eco supplemental coverage. You know, if you like to buy those options, that subsidy has increased from 65 to 80% I have coded that for our Montana and South Dakota winter wheat guys. That is very, very inexpensive now. So those farmers will be happy to see that. The other big thing is the beginning farmer rancher program has been went from five to 10 years. So basically, if you’ve been farming less than 10 years, you want to make sure that you get re enrolled in that program. Agents should kind of be doing that automatically, but I would definitely make sure that you’re checking with your agent to make sure you’re getting re enrolled in that program. The other thing would be, there’s more premium support that came out of that bill for optional and enterprise units, it’s not, I don’t think when we quote in March, you’re going to be like, Oh my gosh, my crop insurance is way cheaper, but it is there nonetheless. So so positive things moving forward. You know, crop insurance isn’t perfect, but a lot of these things were steps in the right direction.

 

Ben Hetzel  09:18

So Lacey with the Beginning Farmer program. Did it outline the parameters? Are they extending the 100% of T yield? Or do you know any of that this juncture?

 

Lacy Schatz  09:31

Basically they just extended premium subsidy support. It varies by how many years you’ve been farming. The best is one to five, and then it tapers off the last through 10 So, but you really do notice those savings on, on, you know, on your quotes and your premium, there’s a little bit of a how it calculates in last year’s how it kind of preserves your Eph a little bit better than a farmer who’s not in the BFR program. But that’s getting in the weeds a little bit. But it’s mostly just that premium support, and 10 years is a long. Time I feel like for a guy to be in that program.

 

Ben Hetzel  10:02

So I just had one other thing. There’s been some talk about base acres and stuff. Was there much to that?

 

Lacy Schatz  10:13

You know, that, quite honestly, that is not quite as clear yet. You know, that’s not so much an RMA as a USDA situation, and there’s not a whole lot of clarity how that’s going to work, yet. There is some material I could send out if needed, but I’m not very versed on that, just because it’s more the USDA. One other thing I will mention for 2026 is there may be a program. It’s briefly come out. The details are now, but it’s called clip, and that could be basically characterized as like a blanket for your crop insurance, like an overall coverage situation. So as we get more information on that, we can certainly get that out, you know, to everyone, but it’s just, it’s just something that’s briefly been mentioned at

 

Ben Hetzel  10:56

this point. So you don’t have an opinion on on that at this stage. It’s still, too early.

 

Lacy Schatz  11:02

I guess for me, it would really need to be quoted, and then I would have a pretty strong opinion on whether it was something a person should do or not. You know, our agency, we’re big into the whole farm revenue protection program. We really like the coverage that that provides. I feel that it’s this very strong program above and beyond typical multi payroll insurance. So I guess we’re just gonna have to see the mechanics and the pricing of it first.

 

Ben Hetzel  11:25

Yeah, I’m glad you mentioned that, because I think that’s kind of your mantra, saving producers money, protecting their investment, you know, all the way through. And that’s something that that I know that you’ve been actively involved in your career at the federal level and some boards in different committees or whatever that you’ve sat on, bring a wealth of knowledge in this crop insurance arena back to the producers in southwest North Dakota, Montana and Northwest South Dakota. So really appreciate those insights Absolutely. Last

 

Jeff Eizenberg  11:57

question I have for you, Lacey cattle price is still at all time highs here. How about the LRP insurance? You are you seeing a lot of renewed interest in that, with markets trending this way?

 

Lacy Schatz  12:11

Yeah, yep, there’s a lot of interest in LRP. One thing I would encourage ranchers to have a look at is insuring at like a 92.5% level instead of 100% level, you’re still getting really, really good coverage there, but you’re getting a higher subsidy, and it’s much more affordable. So that would be my very important thing. I would tell ranchers when they’re looking at LRP, but it is a strong program, and it’s, it’s nice to have that option. I mean, ranchers, I feel like ranchers don’t have the protections that farmers often do, so it’s nice to see LRP working really well for them right now.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:43

That’s great advice. Thank you so much for that.

 

Speaker 1  12:47

Want more agricultural market expertise. Listen to full episodes of the hedge edge podcast, wherever you get your podcasts, or visit RCM, ag services.com get the complete market analysis and strategies you need to succeed. Shit.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:02

Shifting gears a bit over into the macro side of things, big picture. We’ve got Dwayne, you’re at the bank. We’ve got interest rates have been cut. They’re forecasted cut a bit even further. How are you how are things shaking out at the bank? People thinking easy money is going to be better move forward.

 

Dwayne Bowman  13:21

Good question. Thanks again for having me on and up and Jeff, you know, the Fed is definitely in a difficult position right now. It’s going to depend on the strength of the economy going forward. There’s definitely a push and pull effect in place right now, and it’s going to be interesting to see wins. Obviously, we know the direction Trump wants to see interest rates go and Powell doesn’t seem to necessarily agree and and the economy ultimately probably be what decides that makes that decision. Right now, the biggest concern is probably stagflation. So it will be interesting to see how between unemployment numbers, inflation, the impact on tariffs, all that shakes out. But the expectation, you know, we just did see the Fed dropped interest rates quarter percent. The expectation is still probably at least another quarter percent before year end, possibly two rate cuts. We might see a half percent cut before year end, and then another drop is expected in 2026 but you know, really, when you look at it, Jeff, it’s, it’s a pretty minimal impact on the overall impact on a on the farmer, rancher. Right now, you know if, if your input costs are $200 an acre, and last year, you know, for instance, if you were paying 9% this year, you’re paying 7% you know you’re talking maybe about a $4 an acre savings. So it is not, it’s not substantial enough to have a huge

 

Jeff Eizenberg  14:36

impact. And then the other element comes, as we’re in the harvest season, is cash versus carry. Obviously, you just mentioned paying down an operating line. That might be nine that’s ideal. But at the same time, there’s carry on the board and there’s potential opportunities ahead. What is your position or thoughts from the from the bank side, you prefer farmers to kind of true up? And get back to square one with you here by the end of the year, or you like to see him carry and hold on into next year? Yeah.

 

Dwayne Bowman  15:06

You know, the anticipation that I have is that they’re gonna hang on to it, but they’re gonna carry it for a while. So, you know. And there is a cost, obviously, to doing that, you know, Ben, what is what storage cost? It’s grand equity

 

Ben Hetzel  15:17

now, six cents, which is too cheap for the carry in the market for sure, yeah.

 

Dwayne Bowman  15:22

So six cents, you know, you look at the course, if they hold on to that for 12 months, then you’re talking 72 cents. So, you know, almost, almost a buck a bushel to hang on to it for a year. You know, we talked, I talked to a lot of my producers last year on interest rates, on the cost of hanging on to it because of, you know, it’s sitting on an inventory loan, if it’s sitting on their operating loan. And last year, you know, when one grain was say, let’s use wheat and say, $6 a bushel, they’re hanging on to that, and they’re paying 9% interest. You’re talking 54 cents to hang on to it for years. So between storage and between the cost of of interest, of hanging on to that you’re looking at, you know, $1.30 or more a bushel, they certainly didn’t see $1.30 rally. They saw it go the other way, about $1.30 so a tremendous cost to hang on to it, but yet, as low as it is this year, so now we’re talking, say, $5 wheat and 7% interest rates. So now you’re looking at maybe 35 cents a year to hold, so a little less cost to hold. So I think you’re definitely going to see that gamble, that they’re going to hang on to it, that they’re going to see this market rally. You know, I’m not saying that’s the right thing, or what banks want to see, but that’s certainly the expectation. I think. What we saw, and could probably attest to this as well, that the sell, the selling that was taking place at harvest was probably because they didn’t have the storage, the only reason it was coming to town.

 

Ben Hetzel  16:39

And even post harvest, we’re seeing that push, like, I need 40,000 room for this. And, you know, whatever, the guys that bag, obviously, they have endless storage for a time. But, yeah, it’s, it’s kind of interesting. One of the things that I want to throw out there, too is we’ve seen a lot of bugs in the new harvested grain coming in this year, grain weevils in the field. I’ve seen it before. Actually was on a grain bin during harvest when my dad was cutting wheat years back, and that was the first time I’d ever seen it. I did not realize those burgers were in there, but the bin top was covered. And I was talking to a farmer the other day, and I said, you know, be on the lookout, because these bugs are in there. And if guys just throw it in these bins and don’t don’t condition it, and don’t pay attention to it. Come back in December, January, February, we’re gonna have bugs. And so anyway, we’re seeing some problems already with old stored grain because of the moisture. So we’ve had some bug issues, and guys got to be aware of that. And the reason I bring that up is, you talk about interest costs? Well, there’s other costs to carrying grain. You’ve got insurance. It’s on on that grain that you should be carrying insurance anyway, and of those inventories, and then also the quality concern, you got to keep, keep it in condition. So you’re likely running fans. Electric costs are, are not cheap to run those things, and so there’s additional cost to it. And in a year where guys are trying to figure out, especially on weed, how much am I going to lose per acre, these costs can start adding up pretty fast.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  18:16

That’s a great point. Then you’ve got shrink in there as well. That’s important to think about. And one thing that you mentioned in one of our last episodes, Ben, and I’d love to get Dwayne’s perspective on this or position, is that the reality is people are going to store grain. Dwayne, you just said it, they are. But my question, and what we really would need to drive towards is helping people to realize that they should be thinking about marketing the grain that they’re going to store in advance, because you mentioned Ben the last time that every year, no matter what people are thinking, I’m not going to market my grain until I harvest it. Well, they have grain left over already, and they’re going to plan to refill their bins at least, at least partially. So what I’d like to hear from Dwayne, do people constantly have grain in their bins that is unmarketed and should be forward priced?

 

Dwayne Bowman  19:12

Yeah, I guess I can start on that, you know? And, and, yes, we would love to see that grain move a little quicker, because then we know where we’re at. You know, Lacey talked about this as well. We’re still in this wait and see pattern, you know, see how that corn comes in, see the condition, the quality of the wheat that they’re going to sell. So at this point, we really have no idea what their loss is going to be. We expect there’s going to be a loss. We know that. You know, even with with record, record, I guess, but you know, above, well above average yields this year, with the price that we’re having and the discounts that are going to be there between, you know, like corn or or quality issues on the on the wheat side, we know there’s going to be some losses. So we would love to see that going to town a little bit earlier, just so we could, as a bank, that we could see where these producers are at start making some plans. You know, we know we’re going to have to be capitalizing some losses. Unfortunately. It’s never a good position to be in. But the earlier we can make those decisions, the earlier we can sit down with customers and start putting together plans, the better off we are. So yes, that’s the encouragement we’re going to have. Is them meeting with talking to van, talking to brokers, and seeing, okay, what can we do if we need to sell this, if we start moving this now, avoid some interest cost, avoid some storage costs, but we still want to have some upside on that market. You know what the market does rally. How can we leave that open? So that’s the decisions we want them to be talking to somebody on making some plans if

 

Speaker 1  20:29

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Jeff Eizenberg  20:42

Yeah. And Ben in terms of opportunities at the elevator for HTAs and forward pricing and forward contracting. What are some of the solutions that you’re suggesting and talking to people about and brainstorming ideas on right now? Well, we’ve talked

 

Ben Hetzel  20:59

about it before, Jeff, and and this isn’t anything new to Dwayne, either. You know, it’s the basic to arrive contracts selling the carries. You know, we’re getting to a time in the year where you start to see that Jan, Feb, March, bid out there. Basis is historically pretty wide right now. We’ve seen this basis in these, this kind of territory we’re trading in right now, for the last few years, it’s, it’s not uncommon for us to be 7080, even, unfortunately, 90 under. It used to be crazy, crazy, wide years ago, but it seems like it’s more the norm now, to be, you know, above 60 under, for for wheat anyway, and and we haven’t seen it as much in corn. Corn is still maintaining more of a traditional baseline basis that 50 to 70 under out our way. It does narrow up at times, but it seems like that’s year in and year out. It’s it’s right in there. So that one is a little bit probably more palatable to the grower to see that basis that we’re experiencing today. But it’s really the wheat one that’s, I think it’s got all of the producers kind of perplexed, a little bit like, am I going to get a basis break here and post harvest? And is this, you know, maybe we catch a rally on the board, we can pick up 40 cents somewhere in this market, you know. And my my suggestions have been to quite a few producers, you know, you got to start planning out, you know, your logistics and when you want to get into the elevator, because with big crops come congestion, and not everybody. It seems like when, when basis does move, everybody wants to sell, and then it forces basis back out. Or if there’s a big futures rally, everybody piles on, and then, you know, you got basis just in shambles then. And so we really need to be watching these individually, like you said last episode, Jeff, we have to, we have to segregate them out and start working on them individually. If futures are what looks like the opportunity to take advantage of, let’s be doing that with hedge to arrives or or in in our own account with our brokerage firm. You know, we can, we can help with all of that and get things set up for a producer. So outside of that, you know, basis, there’s, there’s carries in the futures, and there’s, there’s a narrower basis out on the horizon. So maybe just have that conversation. But can I lock in flat price basis, or flat price, you know, just to be done with marketing some grain, because most guys are sitting there with almost all of it unprotected, you know, whether it’s corn, wheat, you know, we have moved a tremendous amount of canola, and I think we’re going to be way ahead of last year’s pace by the turn of the calendar. So guys have really taken advantage of a market that is profitable, which is good, experiencing a lot of congestion on that, but that’s, it’s at least a positive sign that guys are taking advantage of certain commodities that are crops are growing and hitting those markets that that are paying them a premium, you know, to what some of the other ones are, and they can, they can lock in some profits.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:25

That’s good, good advice. And then the other thing that we’ve talked about before, and I think it’s worth repeating here, is that we can’t just look what’s right in front of us. We have to look ahead. We got to look, possibly even looking at the 26 crop already. There’s some decent prices on the board due to the carry that it’s built in. And it’s going to be important as we move through this harvest and then get to the beginning of the year to see if we can identify some of those profitable levels that are looking attractive, at least, you know, break even now, if you forward sell and it’s at a break even price, if. Course you’re not happy that it’s break even, but is break even better than losing money, and if your worst sale is a break even price, because the market rallies, so be it. That’s, that’s where averages come in and come into play. So always reminder, keep ahead.

 

Ben Hetzel  25:18

Yeah, that’s perfect, Jeff, because that’s, that’s really what they have to do is work on an average. It’s, it’s not swinging for the home run. It’s, as we’ve referenced baseball terms in the past, on marketing, it’s singles and doubles and and just chipping away at it. You know, even in in our business, in the Co Op, we don’t always just take the full chunk right off, off the map, you know, we we layer into things, whether it’s inputs or or even our marketing strategy for what we anticipate growers to do, which we got to be careful, obviously, because we are expected to deliver on that, that contract, because we’re not just out there, you know, gambling In the market. So, but you do have to forecast some things, and you have to forecast freight. So there is risk in this deal for for everybody. And so layering in and having a position is is the ticket. Well, it’s no different for a producer, they should have a position other than just all cash, you know, throughout the year. And to your point, we need to be looking out further and further. And one tool that we’ve used a lot, and this feeds into what Dwayne mentioned, is selling some grain with some upside opportunity. Obviously, the changes in the Minneapolis market, as you’re familiar with, Jeff, and we’ve talked about it in our marketing meetings that we’ve had, the options kind of went away, and that was a nice tool when it worked for the producers to re own grain or take some premiums out of the market for selling grain. The quotes I’ve been running on some OTC stuff aren’t real great, but it does give you something. You know, if you are selling grain anyway and you’ve got a lot to market, that tool is a pretty good, pretty good tool. We’ve used it a ton. They do have double up features on a lot of those where you might potentially market twice the amount of grain on that contract is what you originally put up face face value. But if you’re sitting on tons of inventories, and you’ve got time to market it, and that’s what your plan is. Anyway, it works really well.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:29

Oh yeah, there’s there’s plenty of tools out there. The question is, are producers willing to have the tough conversation about getting ahead? And that’s what we’re talking about here today, is getting ahead and realizing that there’s strong yields out there this year, you’re going to carry a lot of grain from this season into next at least, you’re going to be storing it. You’ll be looking for new basis opportunities, of course, but at the end of the day, there’s always going to be grain in the bin that needs a home and needs a price, and that’s the piece that Ben myself, our team, we’re happy to talk with with you about it at any time, is, you know what price is right and what is your I would price, what Ben’s talking about, about the OTC and some of the structures that are done through cash contracts. By coming up with an I would sell price. Ben and the team can reverse engineer a price for you to say, Okay, here’s the risk of taking on that type of a trade. So a lot to a lot of education goes into learning about these products and learning about these these sale opportunities, and other people also interested in re owning the board. You know, you hear that a lot. And if you are going to sell off the combine this year, and you feel that there’s going to be a rally, or we think the markets are going to trend higher, maybe China comes in and buys from us, we don’t know. There’s always ways that you can re own the board in order to participate in the upside.

 

Ben Hetzel  29:00

Yeah, and one comment on that, you brought up China. I was listening to a webinar analyst, and they made the reference to the tariffs, and we didn’t really talk about it yet. But you know, the conversation around Trump saying, use tariff money to pay, you know, just send some of that back to the farmers. He wants to use some of it for for some help there. And China. China and Japan are the two that have been hit the hardest by the tariffs with the US. And so here we are on one side. We’re hoping that China wants to eagerly come buy our goods all the while we’re hitting them the hardest with our tariffs, I don’t that should not be back to the marketing strategy is not built on hope. There would be a lot of hope in that statement, you know, and so having a plan and looking out it’s tough to do, especially when they’re in the field, doing the work they don’t. Want to be thinking about this stuff. It’s the prices are flat, pressing, and that’s causing a lot of problems as well, mental mental health issues for people, and thankfully, these rural communities have a ton of help on that front as well. We haven’t touched on that topic, but there’s help out there. And definitely encourage people. If you feel like you’re you’re struggling, reach out and people listening that see it or see changes in behaviors, speak up, because it’s real. And aside from that, there’s tools out there. We’ve referenced them, but in addition, we’ve also talked about the team, your team, well, that includes Dwayne for DWB and their customers, or whatever the bank is, there’s crop insurance. You know, we’ll sit down together, all of us, and have conversations around, how can we help? Or what? What should this look like in a situation where that customer wants to engage that conversation with all of us in the room and try to try to make a plan together how we how we pull through it, especially if we’re leveraging losses and trying to, you know, provide some gap financing for guys and and in their operations. And so that team is super critical in tough times, and I think we’re going to have to see more of that joint conversation going forward.

 

Dwayne Bowman  31:24

That’s a really good point, man, you know, it’s, I see this as a so much different time than the 80s, you know, right now, I think we have so much better resources. We are partners. We’re in this together, you know, between the equity the banks, you know, we nobody wants to see anybody failing. So we’re everything’s going to be done possible to help people get through these difficult times. And, you know, we can’t sit here and, have you said, and have the expectation or have the hope, you know, we have to start putting together a plan. I do hope there’s going to be some government payments, some disaster payments coming out, but right now, with the government shutdown, you know, that’s probably going to be delayed, most likely going to be a new Farm Bill put in place in the next, you know, hopefully few months, but that’s really on hold right now too. And hopefully the timing of, you know, as low as commodity prices are will actually be a good time for a new farm bill to be issued. But although that’s kind of on hold right now,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:13

no, thank you guys both, and it’s been a great episode. You know, the reality is that you’ve both just said it this fall is not about waiting or hoping for insurance or hoping for the market to rally or hoping for a government payment. It’s about making real decisions. It’s about whether you should haul a green to town put it in the bin. Either way, you have to have a plan. And the reality is, the most expensive thing moving forward, other than storage, is indecision. So let’s, let’s make this fall a great fall. Let’s get excited about the great crop that you guys have just harvested. Bring it. Bring it to town. Get it on the board, get it sold, and let’s look the next year to hope for some good prices, but realize that we need to have a plan and use your team, as Ben said, to team around you to help help make those decisions become a reality. So thank you guys both, again. Reminder to our listeners that we want to hear from you. Tell us what you’re doing this fall. Let us know what you have going on with your harvest. How do things look? How do the crops look? And what is your strategy? You can reach us at 888752110, and we’ll tackle all that in our next episodes. Thanks again,

 

Ben Hetzel  33:25

guys. Thank you, Jeff and thank you. Thanks again, Dwayne for jumping on with us and really appreciate Lacy Schatz and LJS Insurance for stepping in with us today. That was super cool to have her on.

30 Sep 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – 30

Corn had been trading in a range north of $4.20 the last couple weeks but dropped below there on the heels of the Sept 30th USDA Report. The USDA raised US ending stocks for corn from 1.325 billion bushels to 1.532 billion which pushed December corn prices to new 1-month lows. With plenty of supply and massive crops in both the US and South America the last 2 years, balance sheets have ample supply while demand for US corn remains strong outside of demand from China. With funds holding bearish positions, it will take a combination of them changing their tone and China showing up with purchases to give prices some news to rally on unless we get in the fields and the yield just isn’t there.

Via Barchart

Beans were lower post USDA report as well despite the report being neutral continuing their recent downtrend. The biggest hit to beans in the past couple weeks came when President Trump and President Xi had a call and no announcement of Ag purchases were made around it. Without China buying US beans there is no major upside currently, except for potentially lower yields. South America’s crop has been able to satisfy China’s needs as that trend will continue moving forward until they run out of supply.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to trade at or near all time highs as a slowing job market could lead to more rate cuts after the Fed cut by 25 basis points this month. While GDP growth had a strong bounce back quarter and the stock market is still doing well, fueled by AI stocks, the overall economy is showing some warning signs but remains strong.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat continues to make new lows with a slightly bearish USDA report with larger US production.
  • Corn harvest is 18% complete and soybean harvest is 19% complete.
  • It seems more and more likely that there will be some extra government assistance to farmers this year with the depressed prices.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest begins.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

Check it Out:

Convenience vs. Cost: Navigating Agricultural Markets, Convenience, and Consumer Spending

04 Aug 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 20 – AUGUST 4

As quickly as corn rallied to get back over $5.50, the rains and favorable forecasts for August led it back below $5 just as quickly. The rains in late July provided much needed moisture over much of the corn belt, but as you can see in the drought charts below, varying levels of drought conditions remain. The forecast has shifted drier for August but after a record hot July, August is forecasted to be cooler. Reports of how much damage the first half of summer did to this crop are all over the place, which usually means it is somewhere in the middle. A 180+ yield is probably off the table, but a 172 yield seems to be just as unlikely unless the forecasts change to hot and dry for a long stretch soon. Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian ports in Odesa and the Danube River continue as the markets seem to shrug off any new damage. Over the weekend any forecast changes, new developments in Ukraine or world news will determine what the trade does to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have a similar story to corn this week but were able to avoid the late June collapse that corn saw thanks to the low acreage number. StoneX estimate for bean yield this week was 50.5 bu/ac which would be a supportive number for beans, especially if the acreage number is accurate. China has begun showing up as frequent buyers in export reports helping the demand story that was questionable on world economic worries not too long ago. The lack of bullish news is good news for the bears as no news markets rarely tend to move higher. Weather in August will be important for this crop and next week’s USDA report will give us more information on US production.

Via Barchart

Recent News

Click HERE to listen to RCM Ag Services’ Jody Lawrence join AgriTalk a couple weeks ago to discuss the current market.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and beans lower for similar reasons. The markets have shrugged off Russian aggression of late but will be watching over the weekend for any escalation.

Equity Markets

The equity markets suffered losses this week with a big down day on Wednesday when Fitch downgraded US debt to AA+ and earnings continue to roll in. The job market seems to be moderating as hiring was slightly weaker than the previous month. The markets are looking for numbers that will keep the economy and markets going while also giving the Fed the signal to stop raising rates. This is a fine line that can feel like walking on eggshells with a long-predicted recession still the worry of most investors.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

21 Jul 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 7 – 20

Corn has seen a strong rally after falling following the USDA Report last Wednesday. The USDA estimated the US crop to have a 177.6 bu/ac yield this year following the rough start to growing season with drought conditions over most growing areas. While the rains have been beneficial in providing relief, this crop needs a lot more rain in the form of soaking rains and not storms with straight line winds. If the hot and dry pattern returns expect to see prices move higher. Russia has threatened that they will treat any ship entering the now closed grain corridor as a military vessel has tensions in the Black Sea region high again. The longer this new standoff drags out the more support it will provide grains. The collapse of the USD and inconsistent weather can help support this move higher after a bearish USDA report depending on the future forecasts and technical trading.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have enjoyed a great run over the last month and half as soybeans got back over $14 this week. After a low acreage number and not an ideal start to the summer beans have had a great last 2 months. The forecast hot dry stretch coming up is expected to put more stress on this crop as we head into the end of July and start of August. With tightening world balance sheets it will be hard for funds to get over extended short but every weekend provides the opportunity for surprise rains and new market surprises.

Via Barchart

The big news of the week was Russia threatening all vessels that enter the region as military vessels, escalating the tensions and ending the grain corridor for the time being. Russia keeps attacking Odessa which will damage the remaining infrastructure and could present even more challenges if/when the grain deal resumes. The Russian ambassador to the US has said that Russia is not preparing to attack civilian ships in the Black Sea, though previously the Russian Defense Ministry announced that all ships traveling to Ukrainian Black Sea ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo, and the southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea’s international waters should be considered unsafe for navigation.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their strength the past couple of weeks with CPI coming in slightly lower than expected (by 0.1%) at 3%. While inflation is still above the target of 2% the slow decrease over time is helping it come down while core inflation, 4.8%, follows the same pattern. The Fed decision at the end of the month is likely to result in a ¼ point rate hike as we head into earnings season next week. Tech stocks took their largest losses that we have seen recently on Wednesday as earnings have begun being posted.

Via Barchart

US Dollar

The US Dollar hit its lowest level in a year this week as the greenback fell below the 100 level. This should help ag exports be competitive on the world stage but the sharp decline from the 103-level last week was surprising.

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

28 Jun 2023

RCM Ag Services’ Top 5 Takeaways from @ChiGrl Live Ag Talk on Place Your Trades

Recently, we had the opportunity to tune in to the captivating podcast episode of @ChiGrl Live Ag Talk on Place Your Trades. The discussion covered various topics impacting the agricultural industry, and we at RCM Ag Services were inspired by the valuable insights shared. Here are our top five takeaways and what they mean for you.

Takeaway 1: Conflict Between EU and Dutch Government: Implications for Farmers

The conflict between the European Union and the Dutch government has significant implications for farmers in the Netherlands. Dutch farmers are vital to the country’s economy and food production, but they face challenges due to the EU’s regulations aimed at environmental sustainability, food safety, and fair competition.

Farmers are concerned about the financial burden of complying with EU regulations, which can require investments in technology and training. This can increase costs and impact their profitability. Compliance may also restrict their autonomy and traditional farming methods.

The conflict raises questions about the competitiveness of Dutch farmers within the EU market. Protecting and supporting farmers could be seen as creating unfair advantages, while prioritizing EU compliance may risk their economic viability.

To address these concerns, constructive dialogue between the EU and the Dutch government is necessary. Government support through financial assistance, incentives, and technical guidance can help farmers transition to more sustainable practices. Finding a balance between sustainable farming and farmers’ economic well-being is crucial.

Takeaway 2: Germany’s Ambitious Organic Farming Goal: A Sustainable Approach

To truly comprehend the implications of Germany’s ambitious plan to reach 30% organic farming by 2030, it is essential to delve into the multifaceted elements contributing to its success. Central to this exploration is an understanding of the role played by government support, incentives, and infrastructure in realizing this transformative vision.

Government support is a crucial driver in facilitating the transition to organic farming.

By examining the effectiveness of existing programs, we can gain insights into the policies and initiatives put in place to encourage farmers to adopt organic practices. This analysis can shed light on the financial and technical assistance provided to farmers, such as grants, subsidies, and access to expertise and resources. Understanding the extent of government support allows us to gauge the magnitude of the commitment and the resources allocated to facilitate this transition.

Incentives are also pivotal in motivating farmers to embrace organic farming methods. By investigating the range of incentives available, such as premium pricing for organic produce, tax incentives, and preferential market access, we can assess their effectiveness in encouraging farmers to switch. Exploring the incentives landscape helps us gauge the level of support and recognition organic farmers receive, influencing their decision to adopt organic practices.

Infrastructure development is another critical aspect that underpins the successful implementation of Germany’s organic farming goal. Establishing robust markets and distribution networks for organic products is essential to ensure a steady demand and supply chain. Analyzing the development of these networks, including the involvement of retailers, processors, and certification bodies, provides insights into the growth potential of the organic market. Understanding how the infrastructure is evolving enables us to identify potential gaps or areas that require further development to support the expansion of organic farming.

By unraveling these key aspects—government support, incentives, and infrastructure—we gain valuable insights into Germany’s journey toward cultivating a greener and more sustainable agricultural landscape. This holistic examination allows us to appreciate the challenges, opportunities, and potential pathways for success in achieving the ambitious target of 30% organic farming. It also offers valuable lessons and inspiration for other countries and stakeholders looking to foster sustainable agricultural practices and contribute to a more environmentally conscious future.

Takeaway 3: Reducing Methane in Farming: Goals and Strategies

The United States is committed to addressing methane emissions in farming to fight climate change. However, there are challenges farmers face in adopting methane reduction technologies.

One challenge is the cost, as these technologies require significant investments in equipment and infrastructure. This can be particularly burdensome for smaller-scale and resource-constrained farms. Lack of financial resources makes it difficult for farmers to adopt these technologies, despite recognizing their environmental benefits.

Another challenge is the technical requirements and maintenance of methane reduction systems. Farmers need to understand the technology and its installation, operation, and upkeep. However, specialized knowledge and training may not always be accessible. Regular maintenance and troubleshooting can also be challenging for farmers with limited technical expertise or resources.

To overcome these challenges, it is crucial to explore the economic and environmental benefits of methane reduction in farming. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change and air pollution. By reducing methane emissions, farmers can improve air quality and save costs in the long run by improving operational efficiency.

Government policies and support are essential for widespread adoption of methane reduction practices. Financial incentives like grants or subsidies can assist farmers in implementing methane capture and mitigation systems. Technical assistance programs and knowledge-sharing platforms are vital in helping farmers navigate the complexities of adopting these technologies.

Evaluating existing policies and support mechanisms is important to identify successful strategies and areas for improvement. By studying the effectiveness of current initiatives, policymakers can refine their approaches and develop targeted solutions. Collaboration among government agencies, agricultural organizations, and researchers can foster innovation and develop best practices for methane reduction in farming.

Takeaway 4: Government Support for Biofuels: Impact on Agriculture and Energy Sectors

Governments in Canada and the United States are actively promoting biofuels as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. Let’s explore the benefits and drawbacks associated with these renewable fuels to gain a comprehensive understanding of this government push.

Biofuels offer environmental and energy security benefits. They can reduce greenhouse gas emissions since they are derived from renewable sources that absorb carbon dioxide during their growth. When biofuels are burned, they release roughly the same amount of carbon dioxide absorbed during production, resulting in a near-neutral impact on emissions. Replacing fossil fuels with biofuels can make significant progress in mitigating climate change.

Biofuels also have the potential to decrease dependence on imported fossil fuels. Producing biofuels domestically using local feedstocks enhances energy security by reducing reliance on foreign oil and gas. This can create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and benefit rural areas where feedstocks are produced.

However, it’s important to address potential drawbacks and challenges. Competition for agricultural land is a concern, as biofuel production requires significant land use. This can lead to conflicts between biofuel feedstock crops and food crops. Careful management is necessary to balance biofuel and food production, avoiding deforestation and biodiversity decline while ensuring food security.

Water usage is another consideration, as some biofuel feedstocks require substantial amounts of water. Expanding biofuel production could strain water resources and exacerbate water scarcity. Sustainable water management practices and water-efficient feedstocks are important to mitigate these concerns.

The potential impact on food prices is a valid concern as well. If biofuel feedstocks compete with food crops, it can affect food availability and affordability, especially for vulnerable populations. Policies should ensure that biofuel production doesn’t negatively impact food security.

To promote the biofuel industry’s growth and viability, innovation is crucial. Research and development efforts focus on improving feedstock development, including non-food crops and algae, to reduce competition with food crops and increase yields. Advancements in processing technologies can also contribute to sustainability and cost-effectiveness. Continued investment in research, along with supportive policies and incentives, can drive further innovation in the biofuel sector.

Takeaway 5: Technology’s Role in Future Farming: Precision, Automation, and Sustainability

The episode highlighted technology’s crucial role in shaping the future of farming. Integrating technology into farming practices comes with challenges and barriers that need to be understood.

One challenge is the cost of adopting farming technology. Precision agriculture tools and automated systems require significant upfront investments. Farmers must assess the long-term benefits against the initial costs and ensure the financial feasibility of implementing these technologies.

Accessibility is another consideration. Not all farmers have equal access to technology, especially in rural or developing areas. Addressing infrastructure, connectivity, and technological literacy issues is important to ensure inclusive technology adoption that benefits all farmers.

Proper training and support are crucial for successful technology integration. Farmers need to acquire the skills and knowledge to effectively use and maintain the technology they adopt. Training programs and workshops can bridge the knowledge gap and empower farmers in utilizing available technological tools.

Ongoing technical support is vital to address any implementation or operational challenges that may arise. Access to reliable assistance and troubleshooting resources ensures a smooth transition and minimizes disruptions to farming operations.

Precision agriculture techniques, automation, and artificial intelligence applications offer benefits such as optimized resource use, improved yields, and reduced environmental impacts. Real-time monitoring, disease management, efficient irrigation, and waste reduction are some of the advantages technology brings to the agricultural industry. By harnessing technology, farmers can enhance profitability while reducing their environmental footprint.

Supporting Farmers and Industry Professionals in the Ever-Evolving Agricultural Sector: Discover the Expertise and Tailored Solutions of RCM Ag Services

RCM Ag Services is committed to supporting farmers and industry professionals navigate these complex agricultural landscapes. Our team of experts is well-versed in the latest trends, regulations, and technologies impacting the industry. We provide various services, including consulting, risk management, and financial solutions tailored to your specific needs.

If you’d like to learn more about how RCM Ag Services can assist you in optimizing your operations and staying ahead in the dynamic agricultural sector, schedule a call with our team here. Together, we can explore strategies to help you thrive in an ever-evolving industry.

Don’t forget to check out the full episode of @ChiGrl Live Ag Talk on Place Your Trade for an in-depth discussion on these critical agricultural topics. You can find the episode on their Twitter page here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1YpJkgQAVrwJj?s=20

15 May 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 28 – MAY 15

The USDA Report on Friday did not give any bullish news. But the overall muted market reaction was good to see as the overall report did not offer much to help prices. The USDA had production and ending stocks above pre-report estimates with the main number of US yield an expected 181.5 bpa. The USDA did not change their April estimates for Argentina’s crop, which remains higher than the numbers from the Rosario Grain Exchange but did raise the production estimates for Brazil. The USDA raised ending stocks on expectations for lower exports which matches the theme in the export space of late. The US crop planting progress was 65% complete to start this week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a bad week, like corn, but did not have as bearish a response following the report as the numbers could have led to. The major numbers were in-line with pre-report estimates except for the ending stocks for similar reasons as corn, with lower exports and south American production. WASDE did not lower Argentina’s numbers for beans either. The world bean market needs to find a new demand angle to keep from being oversupplied if the US has a great growing year. The US soybean crop was seen as 49% planted to start the week.

Via Barchart

Wheat was the lone warm spot of the report with some numbers coming in below trade estimates. The 23/24 world wheat ending stocks came in well above the pre-report estimates at 264.3 MMT (259.5 MMT) consumption and exports are lower. Wheat got a strong bounce, with KC leading the way, and should give corn some help. The Black Sea corridor will remain the biggest issue for commodities as any stops or problems will be supportive for Wheat.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were mixed this week with the Dow getting hit with losses, the S&P being relatively flat and the Nasdaq continuing higher. Tech continues higher after good earnings from the major companies and the market thinking the Fed is done raising rates and potentially lowering sooner. The markets are still waiting for a catalyst as it has been a story of the have and have nots as of late.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture as planting has begun while the western corn belt in some areas getting lots of moisture over the weekend.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

28 Apr 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 21 – 28

The losing streak continued for corn this week after another week with no bullish news keeps hitting prices. With Brazil’s prices as low as they are due to record production, China cancelled a 233,000-tonne corn purchase this week. This is not a new strategy by China as they cancel purchases from the US once they know Brazil can meet their demand for cheaper. This could lead the USDA to lower export expectations for the year and we would not be surprised to see more cancelations. While all the news has been bad of late and the chart looks ugly, the bounce off the lows to end the week was helpful. The weather remains cool and wet across much of the corn belt for the next week but should warm up and dry out after that to allow for quick planting come mid May. Corn planting progress was as expected this week at 14% complete.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had had seven consecutive days lower before their bounce on Friday to end the week. Brazilian markets had imploded but now appear to be stabilized, but still priced far below the US price. Like corn, there have been some cancelations and slow down in purchases, which will likely make the USDA lower export predictions for beans as well. Bean planting was seen 9% complete to start the week which is slightly ahead of expectations. Corn and Beans are both battling lower prices in Brazil and a good start to planting while they wait on news to change the trade direction.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets got a bounce this week after several mega cap tech companies delivered strong earnings report. Next week’s reports don’t have as many big names but it does have Apple which may be the most important stock. GDP growth cooled for the 3rd straight quarter growing slightly over 1%, the drop of 1%+ quarter over quarter the last three will make Q2 growth important to see if that trend continues and we slip into negative growth, also known as recession territory.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt dry.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

24 Mar 2023

AG MAKET UPDATE: MARCH 10 – 24

Corn leveled out over the past couple weeks after its move lower into the mid $5 range. Good exports and continued problems in Argentina have been able to keep corn from moving any further lower while funds continue to offload long positions. Corn will continue to trade here until the prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report on the 31st that will play a role in its next move. There could be surprise news that gives it a bump higher or lower but for overall directional change something surprising would need to be in the report. How the USDA adjusts for further losses in Argentina and unpredictable world demand will be two questions to look for in the stocks report.

Via Barchart

Soybeans finally caved and followed corn and wheat lower after putting up a good fight. Brazil’s record bean harvest is under way and with insufficient storage they have to get rid of them driving prices lower to keep US beans even remotely competitive. Like corn the funds are legging out of their long held long positions making the moves sudden and large. Beans saw a nice bounce to end the week making up for Thursdays losses. One would expect the markets to calm down a little next week as the report looms large for any further downward pressure or welcome support.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The markets continue to be confused as they look for guidance that does not appear to be coming. Sec. Yellen this week flipped back and forth on whether or not they would increase deposit insurance for a period of time to help calm fears while the Fed went ahead with its 25 point rate hike. The banking issues make analysts think the Fed could cut rates before the end of the year helping tech stocks but ultimately the Fed likely wont cut rates until we are in a recession.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.