Category: Cotton

09 Nov 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9

The November USDA Report raised US yields and ending stocks. From what we have been hearing about yields in the eastern corn belt the rise in yields was not that unexpected while a 1.9 bu/ac jump higher to 174.9 was not quite expected. Rarely does the November report differ so much from the Sep/Oct yields, but the yields in IL, IN, and OH made up for losses seen in the western corn belt and plains. Current support is at $4.67 for Dec corn, but a close below that could lead lower. If that holds, we should expect the sideways trade we have seen for the next month+. US corn yield 174.9 bpa. Us corn production 15.234 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had seen a good run over the last couple of weeks until the USDA report took a hit. While beans are still well off their lows the report’s reaction saw beans lose 20 cents. Like corn, soybeans saw their yield increased to 49.9 bu/ac. The Chinese demand situation and northern Brazil’s dry weather have been bullish for beans and will be a bullish talking point if they last and the main news moving forward. US soybean yield 49.9 bu/ac. US soybean production 4.129 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had their longest winning streak of the year in the past couple weeks, climbing back from the latest move lower. Inflation is cooling and the Fed appeared to be done (for now) with changing rates which allows the market to take a deep breath as a “soft landing” appears attainable. Fed Chair Powell today said that he is not confident the Fed has achieved sufficiently restrictive rate to bring down inflation, allowing for some concern of further rate hikes. While earnings have not been stellar across the board strength in some important areas has given the markets fuel for this most recent rally.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton is a supply and demand story right now with ample supply and a lack of demand. World geopolitical issues and the risk of a recession have kept buying down as producers do not want to be stuck with inventory nobody wants to buy.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

26 May 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 15 – 26

Corn had its best 2 week stretch in quite a while. As you can see from the chart below this has been the first meaningful rally, we have seen in 2023. As corn planting was 81% complete to start the week, ahead of the average pace, the trade has started to look at the weather outlook as we head into June. A dry pattern has begun forming in the coming weeks as it begins to warm up across the corn belt. While the heat in June is not overly worrisome it will be important to keep an eye on it as a warm dry June, followed by a hot dry July, could be plenty to do some serious damage to the US crop. We are a long way from this becoming a reality but a few weeks of dry heat to start June could help this rally keep some momentum or at least not give back the recent gains. Exports continue to be disappointing, and the extension of the Black Sea grain corridor isn’t bullish, but as usual the focus will be on final planted acres and weather in the coming weeks.

Via Barchart

Soybeans can’t get any momentum as South American beans continue to be the preferred option in the world market. November futures made a new low this week before getting a modest bounce on Friday heading into the long weekend. As demand continues to struggle the USDA will likely continue to trim exports in the next report, which will add to ending stocks for 22/23. Beans were 66% planted, ahead of the average pace, as weather concerns won’t hit the soybean market just yet. Beans are lacking any bullish news as they wait for a spark but struggle to find where it will come from.

Via Barchart

Cotton had a volatile week as seen in the chart below. When these opportunities present themselves, you do not want to miss the opportunity to hedge your risk. Have a plan and be prepared if there is another 5-cent spike that could make a big difference in your bottom line and potentially a good spot to place a hedge. The 78-84 cent range of Dec 2023 cotton has been consistent with pops to the upside and dips back to the bottom. The world economic outlook and US weather will be the main drivers moving forward into the long weekend.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their mixed run of late with the DJI continuing to struggle while the S&P and NASDAQ stocks see gains. NVIDIA was the big winner of the week as chips and AI have investors’ focus. While the jury is still out on Artificial Intelligence and what role it will play in the coming years, one thing is clear, investors don’t want to miss the boat even though we do not know if the boat is the Titanic or the USS Missouri.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows the struggles in the weestern corn belt as the eastern corn belt is in good shape as planting wraps up.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Apr 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 12 – 21

Corn had a rough week, especially to end the week falling over 20 cents after a small rally. Poor weekly exports, fund selling and the potential for rain in the driest parts of the US pushed prices lower this week. Corn planting was 8% complete to start the week, slightly behind where it was expected to be but in fine shape for this point of the year. Weather will remain a problem from the Midwest with cold temps continuing. Any news out of Russia and Ukraine will continue to move markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a similar week to corn with weakness into the weekend. Brazilian soybeans continue to be at a big discount to Chicago, $2.00, with their record production and storage shortage. China is not as active a buyer as expected in Brazil but less demand from them will lead to more from other places taking away from US exports. The soybean balance sheet has been tight so that would not be a bad thing for global supply but would not be friendly to getting back to $14 beans.

Via Barchart

Cotton was limit down at one point during Thursday’s trade, before bouncing slightly for its worst day in over a month. The export report was less than impressive this week at a 15-week low. The chart broke through its support level during the down trade, changing how the charts look. The chance of rain in west Texas was one of the drivers as it only takes a few well-timed rains to make the markets nervous. While it is still only a chance of rain all eyes will be on if that rainfall comes to fruition. Any widespread rain in west Texas would lead to another limit move lower.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets bled a little this week as the market looks for direction from earnings. The S&P 500 was unable to break through the 4,200 level, coming close before moving lower for the week. Earnings next week for some major companies (Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon) will give us a lot of information that will determine the market’s next move.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt dry.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

31 Mar 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 24 – 31 USDA REPORT

The USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports were released today, March 31st, with a mix of news. The report pegged this year’s crop at 92 million acres while the trade estimates were about 91 million. This led to a mixed trade as pre-report strength faded with futures ending mixed for the day. Current US weather conditions and the expectation of a slow start to planting could lead to this number falling, it is unlikely we will see a number higher than this the rest of the year, similar to last year. Corn stocks were lower than estimates by 69 million bushels and over 350 million bushels lower than last year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans received a boost from the report as with lower acreage and stocks than expected. The planted acreage number came in at 87.5 million acres, lower than the 88.24 million trade estimate. The quarterly stocks were 247 million bushels lower than a year ago, continuing to show the tightness on the balance sheet. South America still has some uncertainty around their crop, but we should get a better idea in the coming weeks. Both numbers from today’s report are seen as bullish for the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat saw some bearish numbers with higher planted acreage and higher stocks than pre-report estimates. 49.9 million acres, 1 million over estimates, and 946 million bushels in stocks, 934 mbu estimate, were both bearish while the price did not overreact. Wheat will follow corn’s lead for now with many questions still surrounding the conditions in the southern plains and the Black Sea.

Via Barchart

Cotton’s bounce this week back to over 83 cents was very welcome after a couple weeks of lower trade. The market did not have a major reaction to the report with planted acreage estimates coming in at 11.3 million acres vs the 11.2 million trade estimate. Speculative short covering helped cotton rally this week while spreads were also a lower than normal percent of the trade. The problem continues to remain of recession fears and how that affects companies purchases trying to weigh supply and demand.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equities had another good week as investors seem to believe the Fed will relax with rate hikes and the banking fears have calmed down along with an ease in inflation pressure as we slowly move lower. Tech companies would be the beneficiary of lowering rates by the end of the year but the Fed’s recent comments would indicate they have no intention to lower rates before the end of the year. There was strength in most sectors this week.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

10 Mar 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 24 – MARCH 10

The last 2 weeks have not been friendly to corn despite a neutral to bullish USDA report this week. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 40 mmt, but the crop could still be smaller amid a historically poor weather year in Argentina. Corn took a nosedive to end the month of February and has taken another leg lower this week, with the new crop hitting $5.50. After a flat trade for most of February the move lower presents farmers with important decisions regarding what to do for crop insurance. With the Feb average price of $5.91, 40ish cents higher than current levels, farmers should seriously look at the highest level of revenue protection you can get. The premiums will likely be high, but the recent price movement has created an uncertain environment with a long way to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower again this week after rebounding last week as soybeans have held together better than corn. Bean stocks were tighter than the trade expected while exports were up 25 mbu but crush down 10 mbu. Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and stocks. Like for corn, the USDA lowered Argentina’s production below the average trade estimate. While the news out of the report was mildly bullish, the negativity around corn and wheat bled into beans to end the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton was punched in the mouth on Friday after trading lower this week. The USDA did not make any significant changes to the supply and demand report. The lack of demand is the main problem as the global 22/23 forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade with higher production and stocks. The world economic outlook is questionable for the coming year and a global recession would hurt cotton more than other areas.

Via Barchart

Wheat

The story for wheat has not changed as markets continue to get crushed. The report made no major changes to forecasts and balance sheets and there has not been any major changes in Ukraine as Russia continues their assault. Russian officials are expected to meet with UN officials in Geneva on March 13 to discuss the grain deal renewal and trade sanctions.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets moved lower this week on overall market weakness and the Silicon Valley Bank news. While one day doesn’t make a trend, the trend lower since the start of February looks to have room to move lower with another big jobs added number keeping the Fed rate hikes as a question mark.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Feb 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 10 – 24

Corn took it on the chin this week as it traded lower to levels last seen in early January. The bulk of the losses came in the second half of this week following the USDA Ag Forum’s bearish numbers. The Ag Forum estimates 91 million acres of corn with a 181.5 bu/ac yield. While these numbers are not surprising as they are mostly just trend line projections the market still reacted in a bearish way as this would raise ending stocks. These numbers also expect neutral external conditions such as weather, politics, etc. While these numbers historically are not the most accurate the market does listen and this was a major bearish factor for the week. They also released their price expectation for the year with December corn being $5.60, this is about 17 cents lower than Friday’s close. February insurance prices for corn sit at $5.95.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower to end the week in sentiment with corn and wheat. The USDA Ag Forum numbers for beans were 87.5 million acres with a yield of 52 bu/ac. These numbers are very realistic and did not send any shock into the market. These numbers would raise stocks by 65 million bushels to 290 mbu which would help alleviate some balance sheet stress. While these numbers were not surprising they did say they expect November bean price of $12.90, so there is room for downward movement in their view. The news that pulled soybeans lower had to do with other commodities as Argentine production estimates continue to fall and Brazil’s harvest is delayed. The insurance average for soybeans is $13.77 for November beans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has struggled the last two weeks after pushing up against the $8.00 mark before falling all the way to $7.08 to end the week. Wheat has moved lower as Russia is selling their wheat the cheapest of anyone, with Egypt purchasing 240,000 tonnes this week. Russia selling their wheat cheaper to gain market share and get money to continue to fund their war on Ukraine. Funds were also sellers this week on the news as they expect Russia to get business as long as countries are saving money. The Ag Forum released estimates for wheat of 49.5 million acres and a trend yield of 49.2 bu/ac. This news combined with Russia were bearish but with first notice day approaches we could see calmer trade than the past few days soon.

Via Barchart

Cotton

The cotton story has not changed much as the supply/demand story has not changed. There is both a lack of demand and a supply surplus here in the US, which has led to less imports of cotton goods. With the potential recession looming the lack of current demand mixed with that does not paint a great picture for cotton as it continues to trade on the lower end of its recent range.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets were down this week as economic data keeps coming in supporting higher rates. Inflation is sticking around and earnings are mixed as February will post big losses across the major indexes. Many market commentors still believe we are heading lower from several different factors including the Fed, inflation, layoffs, valuations and more. Continue to keep an eye on the strengthening USD.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

27 Jan 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 26

Corn made small gains over the last 2 weeks as news was quiet outside of South American weather with China being on holiday for Chinese New Year. Exports were better than expected this week, but Mexico continues to look at increasing their corn imports from Brazil. The forecast for rain in Argentina over the weekend will direct the trade to start the week. The news to look for in the coming weeks will be purchases from China and any changes in South American weather. Any developments in Ukraine will have ripple effects across the commodity space, but trying to predict what will happen there is almost impossible.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, had an up and down 2 week span but ended with modest losses. The uptrend beans have seen since October has been promising but eventually it will run out of steam with Brazil in a good position. If Brazil’s harvest gets off to a fast start we could see a weakening in old crop quickly with new crop following slower. Like corn, bean exports to China as they come out of covid lockdowns and Chinese new year would help provide some support until Brazil starts sending them beans. Keep an eye on any positive trade news from China, don’t expect news out of Brazil to be bullish.

Via Barchart

The cotton chart below shows the trade has stayed between 80 and 90 cents for the last couple of months. Cotton is caught in the middle of the markets thinking there will be a recession, and China coming out of Covid lockdowns with capital to spend on consumable goods. Cotton will need some news to get it out of this range, until then expect this trade to continue. While exports increased last week from the previous it is still half of this time last year, showing the demand situation is very different.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The Dow fell over the last 2 weeks as everyone is playing a guessing game with 1. What the Fed will do and 2. Will there be a recession? The economy is still doing well as jobless claims have not begun to go up and inflation is cooling but still has a way to go. With earnings underway guidance will be important to understand how companies are expecting 2023 to go with jobs and what they think the Fed will do.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

18 Nov 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 4 – 18

Corn strung together several days lower in a row last week with a neutral USDA report in the middle of it. The USDA raised the US yield to 172.3, which was within the range of estimates. While corn had been trading sideways for some time, the move lower remained in its trading range, followed by a bounce back higher this week. The black sea export corridor deal being renewed is welcome news for the world supply chain. Brazil and Argentina got some needed rain while some dry areas missed out. They are still suffering drought conditions, but it is also still early in the year. Exports improved this week from last, as the current price levels attract buyers.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell over the last two weeks, due to two days of large losses this week. Soybean Oil got hit as world veg oil prices fell, pulling beans down with it. The rain in Argentina helped speed up soybean planting but rain will still be needed moving forward as still about 25% of the country experiences drought. Bean exports, like corn, improved and better than expected this week. The lack of news makes this a difficult market to trade in as there are no overwhelming bullish or bearish factors dictating direction.

Via Barchart

The US cotton supply was raised in last week’s USDA report with better yields and lower demand. The problem in the cotton market right now is demand. While more money is being spent , fewer units are being bought which translates to less consumption. With the continued high energy prices and inflation issues across the world people are prioritizing eating and heating their homes and fueling their cars (good call) over buying new clothes. The potential for a looming world recession in 2023 does not ease demand concerns as we would not see demand for cotton pick up as producers would sit on inventory they currently have. Until we get more clarity on the world outlook and 2023 it is a time to be cautious. The weakening USD will be worth keeping an eye on.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets started off November with gains after a cooler than expected October CPI of 7.7%. While a drop is nice to see it is important to remember the target is 2-3% so we are still much closer to the top than the bottom with a Fed rate rise coming in early December. The markets seem to expect a 50-point hike, but there is still plenty of time for that to change and get priced in before. One big question that remains for the markets looking ahead is “what will December bring?”. Will there be a Santa Clause rally? Will markets fall as investors do some tax loss harvesting? Many investors still think a recession is coming in 2023 and the next month and half could give us a better idea what to expect.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

16 Nov 2022

What the hell is going on in logistics and is there any relief in sight? with Woodson Dunavant

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”
To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.
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Quick Links from the episode:
For more information visit Dunavant.com, follow @Dunavant_LTL on Twitter, and check out their LinkedIn & Facebook.
Questions for Woodson? Contact him at: [email protected]
And last but not least, don’t forget to subscribe to The Hedged Edge on your preferred platform, and follow us on Twitter @ag_rcm, LinkedIn, and Facebook.
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Check out the complete Transcript from this week’s podcast below:

What the hell is going on in logistics and is there any relief in sight? with Woodson Dunavant

Jeff Eizenberg  00:14

Welcome to the Hedged Edge by RCM Ag Services where we’re getting out the field and onto the mic to bring you weekly market updates, commentary from commodity experts in monthly interviews with the biggest names in agribusiness. Welcome to winner at least it feels that way after the one of the warmest falls in recent memory. Today, the hedged edge is back online with a guest who could potentially be the most important guest of all time on this podcast. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers and global supply of grain is scarce, are tasked with the question, What the hell is going on in logistics? And is there any relief in sight? To help address these questions and more I’m joined today by a man who needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector once and done event with the done event logistics company based in Memphis, Tennessee, what’s in is the Senior Vice President of agriculture and Global Network Development for the company. And as part of the fourth generation of done event family to work for the company. He worked across the globe specializing in cotton trading from 2001 to 2009. And spent four years in equipment leasing, what’s in currently serves as logistics sales and business development for event focusing on the international market. He’s a member of the executive board of directors for Donovan Enterprises, Inc, and is on the board of directors of the Memphis Cotton Exchange and the Memphis cotton Museum. He received a bachelor’s degree in finance from Auburn University. Go War Eagle. What Dr. Woodson, welcome to the show.

 

Woodson Dunavant  01:59

Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me, Josh. I appreciate it. Glad to be here.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:02

Yeah, it’s good times. I mean, my first question your Memphis with the river being as crazy as it is really concerned for the catalyst industry and the restaurant industry. You know, I’ve I’ve had lunch at Blue City cafe over there on Beale Street. The guy told me he’s, he’s, you know, cooking up 180 fish a day. What? How’s he doing in all this? Oh,

 

Woodson Dunavant  02:26

to be completely frank, he’s doing just fine. Because all his cat fish are not coming out of the river. They’re coming out of the cat fish farms. They’re all in the delta. So he’s gonna be okay. He’s gonna be quite alright.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  02:36

He’s alright. Okay, well, I thought maybe they were you know, he’s grabbing them off the bottom fish at the Mississippi or something?

 

Woodson Dunavant  02:42

No, but they are finding each day that goes by you get somebody on the news saying that they found a civil war piece of memorabilia or something, you know that the river hasn’t been this low. And however many years and you know, you’ve got all these treasure hunters that are down there looking for some and things of that nature. But, you know, the real crux of it is what is it doing to the to the grain shippers right now. And it’s a mess. In some cases, you know, the river, where we used to be able to do two barges pass on one another. Now, in some cases, it’s just one line traffic. And then throw on top of that, typically, some of these barges will be able to go to three, you know, far out, and now they’re only able to go you know, back to back, if that makes sense, to lane single. And then add in that to the fact of the river being as low as it is, then they can’t carry the payload that they would be in years past as well. So you push all that back to the farmers pocket. And you know, his supply chain costs have really, really gone up a B, he can’t move the volume that he’s used to moving. So what is he doing? In some cases, you know, they’re just going to sit and put their put their product in their in their bed or their silo, until until things get better, which, you know, there’s there. I don’t know when that’s going to happen. You looked at Long long term forecast, things of that nature, you know, a couple couple inch rain in the Midwest, it isn’t going to move the river level up by 10 feet. So you know, we’ll just have to wait and see how that how that goes.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  04:26

It’s kind of a wild ride right now. And yet, the pictures and the images are stunning people sending drones to give you pictures. I do sense. I don’t want to get too into this before we get a little bit more background. But I do have a question and maybe we’ll tackle it a little bit later about about those drunk drunk foot photos. I feel like a little more a little. Maybe not exactly the river. They’re like the tributary so kind of make it sound a little worse than it is. Yeah, so what you just described is pretty pretty dire. Um, Before we get too far into into the state of things, Watson, I think it might be best if you could just to share your background of the company. And you know why we’re even talking with you about logistics. I mean, you guys have had an extensive knowledge of logistics systems, both rail, barge, freight, etc. So if you could maybe just share a little bit of that background, and then we can jump into these problems. And hopefully, you’re not going to solve the world’s issues by the end of this call.

 

Woodson Dunavant  05:32

No, there’s no question that that’s gonna happen for sure. We might need a beer, a glass of wine to really get to the bottom of it. So yeah, so don event is a family company that started in cotton trading with my grandfather, back in the 30s. In the 40s. My father took it over, took over the business in the 50s, when his dad passed away when he was in his late 20s. So he was sort of thrown into the fire. Early on, he was down on on Front Street, where we were all the cotton traders were at that time buying cotton from the Delta and and shipping it to the US textile mills, you know, the manufacturers who were ever on the East Coast, and even in the northeast,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  06:18

they no longer exist, right? Yeah. So,

 

Woodson Dunavant  06:21

you know, we used to consume between, you know, call it 10 and 15 million bales a year domestically, and right now, we’re just north of two. And, you know, we’ll talk about this later. But, you know, manufacturing coming back and things of that nature, you know, is that, you know, is that gonna go back to 10? million? No, is it gonna go to five? I doubt it. But who knows? You know, we’ll, again, we’ll hit on Mexico and other things like that later. But yeah, I mean, it is the US textile industry is very, very small. So. So what does that mean? So, as we transitioned into that, it mean, it meant that there was a blow up in the international world for textile manufacturing, primarily in in Asia, Southeast Asia, subcontinent, so on and so forth. So as as manufacturing, went overseas, my father went overseas as well, to be able to sell, sell cotton. So we were buying cotton, you know, from the 80s and 90s, early 2000s. Were buying cotton anywhere in the world, that cotton is being grown, and then we’re selling it to the manufacturers. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  07:35

you’re buying from Australia, India, all over the world,

 

Woodson Dunavant  07:38

anywhere there was yeah, it was Becca, Stan, Brazil, Australia. Tragic. I mean, you name it, wherever it was being, wherever it’s being grown, we were there, buying it, and then selling it to the manufacturers. So in the mid 70s, my dad made the first sale of cotton to China, which was a huge development. I think that was in 72. And then Sunday eight, we made the largest sale of a million bales to the Chinese government. So that was really a big thing for both our company as well as us. cotton industry. And now today, cotton is, excuse me, China is still the largest consumer of us cotton in the world. They have a large crop themselves, but they they have a major surplus of need of imported cotton.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:32

So thank you, Nike and Adidas and everybody else, right?

 

Woodson Dunavant  08:37

Yeah, yeah, exactly. All clothing, upholstery. But you know, even stuff that you wouldn’t think of what cotton goes into is manufactured over there. And a lot of times brought back over here as well.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  08:52

So with all those purchases, and sales, then comes the logistics portion. Correct?

 

Woodson Dunavant  08:57

That’s right. That’s exactly right. So it’s still cheaper for the retailers kind of looking from field to fabric here from for us to ship a bale from St. Mississippi, to Shanghai, and then bring that bring that shirt back here to Memphis, it’s still cheaper to do that than it would be to do it here in the US, which is really, I mean, you can’t blows your mind. Really, the that’s the way it is. But that’s the way it is. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  09:25

I got to ask a question about that. So it’s so interesting to me, the way you describe it like that, is it you’re gonna get the bail here, you ship it over, and it comes back. And then is it just because you have this, your network of the supply chain there is so strong that you’re able to from a net con economies of scale, have enough flow that you have enough movement between the vessels that you’re able to then you know, take it over. You don’t have to sit on a container for, you know, six weeks for it to manufac Asher, and come back. But you have enough flow where there’s always a container ready to come back the other way?

 

Woodson Dunavant  10:06

Yeah, I mean, that’s Jeff, that’s really deep. And I really wish I could tell you that, yes, we were involved from the field in the US all the way to the manufacturer. And then back here in the US. There’s so many different segments of that Donovan is not involved in that entire supply chain. Well, that would be really cool. If we were Yeah, it’s just there’s so many different pieces to make that puzzle all come together.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:31

We don’t need to get too in the weeds. But I’m curious if you were involved

 

Woodson Dunavant  10:35

with with our customers with helping them move it from the field to the oversee port, and then we sort of lose track of it there. And then on our on our import side, you know, we’re responsible from once the goods hit the port in Asia, to deliver them here to the United States and the distribution facility got because there is there is a dark area, there are a gray area that we’re not involved at all,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  10:58

leave that to somebody on on their side that can speak a language and manage that process got

 

Woodson Dunavant  11:03

Correct, correct. That’s right. That’s right. So so we did all the all the cotton trading, you know, the mid 2000s, come along, you know, 2007 2008, I’m sure some of your your, your readers will remember those days now crazy thing for when the spec and hedge funds got really involved in commodities that they thought they needed to commodity bucket in addition to their bond bucket and their equity bucket. And that really changed things from us where we’re trying to keep a hedged book with against our long physicals, the market would run up, we’d have short futures against our physicals. And then, you know, in order to hold those positions, we’re having to send money margin to keep those positions. And it just got, it just got too much for my dad and our family, whereby, you know, our net worth was on the line. And it just, it became really uncomfortable from a family standpoint, from a from a financial standpoint, everything and so he, you know, had the foresight to look at possibly marketing our cotton division. To sell it, we had multiple suitors. At the end of the day, Louis Dreyfus Corporation was the one that came in and bought all of our cotton trading people and divisions around the world. So we had things that they did not have in Central Africa, in Brazil, and Australia. And so it really helped them put together, you know, the full global portfolio footprint that they needed to go to the next level. So

 

Jeff Eizenberg  12:42

it’s no surprise today, they are the largest of, you know, knowledge. They’re right there. Yeah,

 

Woodson Dunavant  12:48

that’s correct. And we were in Donovan Donovan was right there with him, we were doing between four and 6 million bales a year globally, you know, between one and $2 billion of revenue, we were spending, you know, upwards of $250 million a year in logistics. And so that’s when the whole logistics thing for us sort of sort of tipped itself off. And when we were when we made that sale to them, you know, they they did not want any of our people that were doing the logistics. So we, we kept those people and we’ve built this this Threepio, which we will go into more detail about.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:25

That’s great. So then how many people that are on the team today, across the globe? As I know, you have global operations?

 

Woodson Dunavant  13:32

Yeah, it’s really hard to say, to put a number a finger on an exact amount of people, we’ve got a lot of contractors, we’ve got agents, we’ve you know, so it’s a real hard number to put, I mean, it’s north of 200. But it could balloon up to if you include contractors and agents and all that. I mean, it’s a really big number.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  13:57

Sure, not to mention all the people that are involved in you know, running the rail or you know, trucking etc, you get to put everyone together in the 1000s. So it makes makes good sense. Okay, well, that’s a that’s one heck of a ride for you. You’re in the family and obviously, to get to where you guys are here today. Now, it would have been seen that natural that you’re also still heavily involved in cotton.

 

Woodson Dunavant  14:27

We are we, we do so we do freight forwarding for a lot of our old cotton competition. We do a lot of a trucking and logistics for them. The whole bucket of Donovan logistics, it’s probably 10 or 15% of what we do. So it’s not it’s not it’s not as big as I would like it. But it’s still it’s a core. It’s a core business for us. And, you know, we do everything like I just said from documentation to try Looking to ocean freight in some cases. So yeah, cotton is in our blood and we can’t get it out of our blood, nor do we really want to so the side that we’re in now, we don’t have any risk for, for cotton and being able to be in the business without risk is a good thing.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  15:17

Yeah, I agree with that, you know, that’s, we’re all in that business. And it’s, it can be heart palpitating. So, okay. 15% is cotton, what other products are involved in agriculture, or if if it can be shipped your yours,

 

Woodson Dunavant  15:35

if it’s if it can be moved in a container, Jeff, where we’re going to be involved in it. So, you know, we’ve done everything from Peanuts, to soybeans, to corn to Rice, tobacco, alfalfa, you know, just anything agriculture, you know, we’d like to, for someone to come to us with a challenge of, you know, we’re only able to get 20 tonnes in a container, well, let’s bring it to a major city or a big place where there’s heavy weight, translate it, and we’ll get 25 times in the container. So for every five moves, you’re getting a free container. So every four, so yeah, that those are the types of things we like to look at with with our customers is how can we do things different? How can we maximize our plate payload? How, you know, how can we how can we be a solution to something that they need help with and that that’s how we grow our businesses is people come to us with problems and we help solve.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  16:32

Yeah, well, listen, that’s, that’s, that’s a great service. And obviously, you’ve been able to continue to grow. So you’re, you’re based in Memphis, would that also then insinuate that a majority of the operations and movements starts and ends there on the river? Or are you also focused on the ports and the International terminals as well?

 

Woodson Dunavant  16:56

Yep. So Memphis is home. Obviously, Memphis is where our headquarters is. Memphis is, is near and dear to our heart. And Memphis is great. We love Memphis, we see the growth. We’re very bullish on Memphis. As you know, we’ve got all five major railroads here, which only Chicago has that going through them. We’ve got the largest freight airport, with FedEx moving through here. We’ve got our 40 corridor, trucks moving, you know, east to west connecting the east to west coast. 50 fives connecting Mexico with Canada. So we’ve got, you know, road rail runway. You know, it’s all here. And so we’re, we’re very bullish on that. But to your question, no, Donald’s moving product in and out of every major rail hub in the United States, as well as port, we concentrate in the southeast, and then the Gulf, Houston and Dallas, Memphis, Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk, Baltimore, Wilmington, and then an inland we’re, we’re Nashville, and Memphis in Atlanta. And as I said, Dallas, so we’re really focused in the southeast, and then the Gulf. But we’re also moving product in and out of the P and W, in the northeast, as well. And in southern Florida. So there’s no real you know, we’re, we’re spread all across. So we’re lucky in that regard.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  18:29

That’s great. I guess it really kind of circles back to, like I said, at the beginning, you’re one of the most important people in the world to be talking to you right now. If you’re, you know, you’re so spread out that you are touching so many different pieces of the overall logistics. gameplan, or footprint, let’s call it that. And we all have been hearing about all the problems that are out there. And I guess, before we just say today, this is the problem today. It seems as if this the backups and the issues and the increasing costs and everything kicked off with COVID with the COVID pandemic, and then it’s just really never cleared the system. And then now we have new problems, right, we’ve got drought and other conditions. Was it was this is it fair to say that that was really that was the kickoff the Genesis? And is is that portion of it? Or is it portion of that portion worked itself through and we’re now facing other problems? Where are we at?

 

Woodson Dunavant  19:31

Yeah, I mean, COVID changed the supply chain. Things are not going to go back to the way they were pre COVID. Right? Post COVID COVID, whatever. I mean, it’s not going back to the way it was right. That’s crystal clear. The question is, what is it going to do in the future because it’s going to change again. You know, rates went through the roof. Now they’re crashing back down, both from mostly frame rates, breakpoint rates, yes,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  19:58

interest rates are going straight up. Yeah, interest rates going up

 

Woodson Dunavant  20:01

freight rates going down. I mean, we’re, we’re in a freight recession right now, you know, importers have, you know, they couldn’t get their hands on enough inventory. Well, now they’ve got too much inventory, and they can’t move it. The consumer is not buying as much as he was, you know, they all got scared last year, a lot of the retailers and they couldn’t get their product in for Christmas time. So they brought it in super early this year. And so you know, they are chock a block full these warehouses. I mean, I was reading this morning, Jeff, historically, historically, warehouse levels are about call it 10%. In terms of in terms of vacancy rate, and okay, right now, you’re at, like, want to say, like, around 3%. And it’s literally around 10% For the last decade, and so at 3% Now, it’s a good time to be in the warehouse business. Now. It’s done like, yeah, yeah. So you know, all that’s going to change, you know, everybody’s gonna go out and get their warehouse space, and then then demand is gonna go up, you know, and then things will change. But as it stands right now, being in the warehouse business is a very good business to be in.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  21:18

Yeah. And then you mentioned, when we talked to a couple of weeks ago, something that kind of speaks to that you said Amazon did their, their Black Friday, Black Friday, a week, thoroughly, which forced even more warehousing to be space to be taken up?

 

Woodson Dunavant  21:36

That’s right. That’s right. So and it’s not just Amazon. I mean, it’s all these retail guys, they’re all in the same boat together. So, you know, with with, you know, interest rates dealing with they’re doing geopolitical unrest, unrest and Ukraine, and in that area, diesel costs through the roof has really got me concerned, both in North Europe and in here in the, in the United States. I mean, there’s just a lot of uncertainty right now. And, you know, we’re just gonna continue to service our customers and do what we know to do, and just sit back and watch, you know, some of those other things that are outside of our control, but at the end of the day, affect me, my business, your business, my pocketbook, your pocketbook. So, you know, a lot going on right now. And obviously, the China and Taiwan deal. I mean, it, there’s a lot to be keeping around right now.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  22:34

Right. And there was a period in time when, you know, we saw the pictures on the news of, you know, 500 or 1000 boats back at the LA port. And, you know, a lot of that issue cleared the port issues

 

Woodson Dunavant  22:50

that cleared up, or I wouldn’t say it’s, I wouldn’t say it’s cleared. But it is, it is working itself out. The issue now is in Savannah, I think they’ve got 20 or 30 vessels awaiting birth there. So you know, once everybody saw everything in LA, they were like, alright, let’s switch everything to the East Coast, into the Gulf. And so you’re having some residual stuff there on the east coast, but you know, it that’ll work itself out, especially with demand dropping right now, I mean, a lot of our import clients have, you know, where they were doing, call it 30 to 50 containers a week of product, you know, they’re less than 10 an hour. And that’s, that’s material, you know, that that’s a massive drop in volume, the ocean carriers are pulling, pulling service out of the market to try to stabilize rates. So where they had four vessels that were on a string from Shanghai to LA, well, maybe they’re only doing two now. So you know, that that’s what they do in order to get their rates back up as they pull capacity on the market.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  23:58

But sounds like the airline industry, I think I paid like $800 to fly to Dallas a couple weeks ago, like really good. Two years ago, you were giving me a flight for $120.

 

Woodson Dunavant  24:11

We looked at going out west for spring break. And I can’t even tell you what it’s going to cost to fly a family of five from Memphis to Utah. I mean,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:22

we’re doing it we’re going to Park City and thankfully, I have a friend who has a place to stay but man, aside from that, I’m not

 

Woodson Dunavant  24:32

Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s crazy. So so that’s what the that’s what the ocean liners do, as well to take capacity out of the market in order to stabilize rates. So, you know, they’ve done quite the ocean carrier community has done quite quite well in the last couple of years. So we shall see. You know, we should see how they prevail going forward, but I would think they’re going to be okay.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  24:59

Okay. circling back to commodity markets here. And I’m curious to the back to the river, I guessing that believe something like 60% of all US exports run through the Mississippi, and you were describing this one lane traffic versus multi lane. You know, as I start to think about what this is going to mean, have you seen a shift where people are, your customers are starting to, you know, hire rail and truck and, you know, incur those additional costs that are associated with having to move off the river? Or are you or our or our people, like you said, farmers just stuffing their bins full and the rest of world has to wait?

 

Woodson Dunavant  25:44

Yeah, I think that’s what you’re gonna see. I mean, you look with demand slowing down. That’s a good thing right now, what you would never say the demand is a good demand slowing down is a good thing from a farmer’s perspective. But to answer your question, I mean, we’re not seeing the grains go from, from a barge to, to the road, for example, me, you’re not, you’re not seeing, because at the end of the day, most of those sales are our bulk sales. So the product has got to move in bulk, you know, and it’s not going to be able, you’re not going to be able to move it to Memphis, and then, you know, I guess you could bulk rail it and translate it at a port. But if you’re not already doing that, in order to set something like that up, I mean, your costs are gonna go through the roof. And so yeah, I think it’s just kind of a sit back and wait, right now do what they can and try to fulfill the contracts if they can, and just just do their best. I mean, look, what the dollar is strong as it is, you know, that’s hurting them as well. So, you know, the farmers are going to be okay. But, you know, they’re just gonna go through a rough patch. And unfortunately, right now, from a timing standpoint, you know, all the crops are coming off right now. And so, you know, they want to get them on the move and get get them out and get ready for new crops. But that doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case next year.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  27:03

Well, you know, people can wait for close, they can’t really wait for food. So at some point, the basis is going to have to shoot straight up or, you know, they’re gonna have to figure out other solutions to get moving unless, of course, we you get some of the rain. And I guess, you know, you’ve been doing this long enough. 2012 was another drought year, and because we’re reading that the river was, you know, significantly low at that point. What was your experience in that timeframe? And how long did it take before you started seeing things kind of working more normal? Again? Not March or April or May that this? Yeah. potentially even subsides? Yeah. It?

 

Woodson Dunavant  27:44

I mean, it just depends on on on weather. Really? But yeah, I think spring is what you’re looking at. Once you get the snow melt off from the Midwest. That’s what typically always give the river its strength in its in its last as is that Snowmelt Runoff from north to here. And then that obviously takes it all the way down to New Orleans. So yeah, I think it’ll be spring, at the earliest. So, you know, hopefully, we can get, you know, enough enough rain and wet weather around here to be able to come back up a little bit, but it’s not going to be able to go back up to where it needs to be until until the spring.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  28:30

Let’s shift over here a little bit. You’ve mentioned the work and expansion of the company over the years. And, you know, I read an article that you guys posted, maybe earlier this year, on the growth in Mexico, do you just maybe talk to us a little bit about what you’re seeing there? Is it? Is it what’s what problem are you solving by expanding into Mexico?

 

Woodson Dunavant  28:55

Well, we’re, what problem we solve. And so we’re helping solve our customers problems. That’s what we do. And, you know, we saw an opportunity, with things in Asia slowing down of people and things moving, you know, not reshoring to America, but nearshoring to America. And you know that that’s where Mexico comes in. I mean, I’ve talked to multiple people, you know, over the past few months and even years, you know, maybe the quality of the product produced in Mexico doesn’t meet what it is in China, but they are somewhat competitive from a labor standpoint. So if we can get that quality then then I think you would see a massive, massive move to manufacturing in Mexico. So we saw an opportunity we’re it done event has operations at every border crossing from Laredo all the way to Tijuana, and everywhere in between. So we’re moving product both in and out via truck and rail. We have cross docking, we have warehousing. So you We’ve got a gentleman that runs that operation for us who use, I still need to introduce you to and your team, because I think y’all would be benefit to hear from him and what his capabilities are and how, you know, he can help you and some of your customers out with what he’s doing even enter Mexico, not not to mention the border. So we’re very bullish on Mexico, and the US and where that partnership is going to go from here. And so we are

 

Jeff Eizenberg  30:28

going both ways, right? You’ve got grains and other goods going into Mexico. And then as you’ve just described a little bit ago, how if there’s a chance for us to match the labor and quality, then if we move some of our texts will like, not us. But if some I’ve heard that China is buying up some textile factories and whatnot in Mexico, if they could replicate the work there, but just be closer to us that, then now you’re going the other way, right? You’re bringing it back in?

 

Woodson Dunavant  30:58

That’s exactly right. That’s exactly right. And, you know, it’s just it’s been a great venture for us. You know, the more and more we look at it, the more and more we like it, and the more bullish we are on it. So yeah, I’m very, very happy with where we’re going there, for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  31:14

I was talking with a group today, and he was talking to me about Mexican ports, and how the terminals are hardly back over there, and only the largest vessels coming in. Is that been your experience as well, that these port contractors are very long and extensive? And just to break into that it would be difficult? And ultimately, I guess that would mean that there’s better chance for some of this rail and solutions? Yeah,

 

Woodson Dunavant  31:42

I mean, you know, I think in Mexico is a lot of people know, I mean, you’ve got to know the right people in order to get things done. And, you know, while while there might be longer contracts in place, I think that, you know, you can still get things done if you know, the right people there. Right. So, you know, I think that’s what the name of the game is there for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  32:04

Is there other any other countries or regions that you’re focusing on other other than, than the Mexico opportunity? And obviously, you’re doing things in Asia? But yeah, I mean, you coming on? You

 

Woodson Dunavant  32:18

know, we’re, we’re pretty bullish on Vietnam, we’ve got a contingent going over there, I think in the next three weeks or so to go check things out, you know, they suffered from a lack of land and people, but, you know, they, everything that they’ve done is is very impressive. From a port infrastructure standpoint, from a manufacturing standpoint, from a labor standpoint. I mean, you’ve got invest foreign investment from all over the world going into Vietnam right now. And, you know, we’re, we’re quite bullish on on the goings on there, and so much, so I was, like I said, we’re sending sending three executives over there in the next few weeks to go to go investigate further and for sure, do you?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  33:05

Are you taking a translator? And are you on this? Are you on this contingent?

 

Woodson Dunavant  33:11

So luckily, we, you know, we don’t really need translators, we have agents and people that we work with, over there that are able to do that for us. So years and years and years ago, when we travel over there, you’d have to, you know, you’d have to have a translator, whether it was in China or Vietnam, or wherever, in Asia, you’re going nowadays, you know, with with as many agents in the network that we have, we’re able to go over there and get around and you know, to be completely honest, English will get you a lot further than you think, especially in Asia. It really will

 

Jeff Eizenberg  33:45

you heading on this trip, or you’re,

 

Woodson Dunavant  33:47

I’m not unfortunately, I wish I would I wish I was Vietnam was one of my top countries in the world that I’ve ever visited, both from a food standpoint, from a people standpoint, from a manufacturing. I love love Vietnam is awesome. Vietnam, Thailand and South Africa are the top three for me, for sure.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  34:10

Sounds good. So you know, this has been a it’s been a great conversation, what’s in it for you know, my takeaway from what you’re saying here is that we all need to think differently in the new environment moving forward, that it’s going to take strategic partnerships, it’s going to take innovation from different companies like yourselves, to come up with better solutions to move products and goods. And achieve really at the end of the day. Our goal of our company and the people with our clients we work with is to help them maximize their margins. And so it sounds like you’re very much aligned with that perspective.

 

Woodson Dunavant  34:48

Absolutely. Absolutely. If you get if you get if you’re comfortable in your supply chain right now, watch out because there’s a change coming and you know it like I said, we’re here to provide solutions when customers have problems, or they want to look outside the box, that’s, that’s who we are. And that’s what we want to help them do. And, you know, it’s a new normal that we’re in, you know, it may only last another three to six months, and then we could be hair on fire was something else. I mean, who knows? That will happen? Because, you know, I wish I could tell you that, you know, things will go back to the way they were. But as we all know, once you have a catastrophic, cataclysmic shift in supply chain, which we have had pre COVID to COVID to now. It’s a new way of doing business. And yeah, so it’s, it’s fascinating. The one thing that we didn’t touch on, was, I think you want to real quick on the rail issue.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  35:46

Oh, yeah, please. Yeah. What’s the story? Are they is it Congress is the only one that could solve this or what’s going on?

 

Woodson Dunavant  35:52

So they did they have originally they had said the 19th of November, they just extended it to December 4. And so they’re gonna have another couple three weeks negotiation, which I view is a very positive development. At the end of the day, Congress and or president are gonna have to step in, because if you were to have that happen, I mean, you talk about you think that the LA Long Beach strike was a big deal. You talked about stoking inflation. I mean, it would be tattered. Strophic, if we had a major rail, strike, I mean, you know, 40%, of, of all goods, in terms of weight is moving on the rail. And if you if you were to stop that, I mean, you can’t get from a food from a retail from you. I mean, you just goes on down the list. I mean, it would be I can’t imagine that the government would allow that to happen, though, they will step down at the 11th hour, if it gets to that point and put their foot down, they have to,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  36:57

yeah, I mean, everything with the just in time production that we have here and consumption in the United States, if even a day or two delay when we’ve seen with, you know, weather conditions or something backs things up, and it takes months for it to work through. So if you started if you had weeks or months off, oh, my goodness, you’re,

 

Woodson Dunavant  37:19

I mean, to your point, even even five days, like something like that would set us back by, you know, three or four months. I mean, it’d be crazy. So I do not think that that will happen. So you can come back and poke me when they do strike and then everything shifts.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:36

Instead, it was not gonna happen. Place your bets. Yeah. We get it. I appreciate that insight. Because then yeah, you’re at the pulse of it. I mean, I assume that the people in the rail industry don’t want it to happen either. But they also want to be paired paid fairly and get proper compensation. So

 

Woodson Dunavant  37:53

that’s right. That’s right. You can’t fault him for sure. Yeah,

 

Jeff Eizenberg  37:56

that’s exactly it. Well, no, this has been extremely good and extremely helpful beneficial to I think everyone listening and, you know, welcome, welcome. You obviously share it yourself. I always have one final fun question for everybody. And it’s what is your favorite extreme sport that you either participate in or would participate in if you maybe were back in your yet 20 year old buddy?

 

Woodson Dunavant  38:20

Oh, Lord and mercy, stream sport?

 

Jeff Eizenberg  38:25

I mean, you talk duck, honey, that’s kind of the kind of counts.

 

Woodson Dunavant  38:28

Okay, well, if that counts, then I will. You know, it’s an extreme sport, in some cases, for sure. Yeah. And I really enjoy it. So. Yeah, I mean, that would be that would be it for me. For sure. I was thinking more like MMA or boxing. Oh, yeah. Well, you could do that too. I mean, I really miss heavyweight boxing. And, you know, back in our day was was was when Tyson and Lewis but even before that, I mean, you know, we would block an entire night out, you know, to get ready for the boxing match. And I mean, it’s it feels like it’s gone. Like, MMA has just totally taken it over. But I mean, I feel like there’s still a space for good heavyweight boxing, and it just, it’s gone. It feels I just, I really miss that.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  39:15

Maybe Tyson was the pioneer of it, because when he bit Holyfield’s ear, nowadays, MMA if you’ve met somebody there, they might be like, yeah, that’s okay.

 

Woodson Dunavant  39:23

That’s right. That’s right. There’s no doubt there’s no doubt so

 

Jeff Eizenberg  39:26

pretty good. Oh, what’s the what’s the best way to get a hold of you have people had to want to want to connect?

 

Woodson Dunavant  39:33

Yeah. So reach out to me. My email address is very simple with some data of it. I’ve done have a.com Email me, you can give me a call. And happy to talk through anything with anybody importers, exporters, domestic domestic folks here in the US anything cross border. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll put you in touch with somebody here. That does. We’ve got we’ve got IT experts all over the place. Donovan, I’d be happy to put you in touch with whomever you need to talk to. So we’re, we’re really excited with our growth and where we’re going. And, you know, we’re just we’re in a we’re in a really good place right now. So, Jeff, I appreciate you doing this. I’ve enjoyed getting to know you over the past few weeks, and hopefully this won’t be the last time I talk to you.

 

Jeff Eizenberg  40:24

Yeah, we’ll do it again. We’ll check back in whenever fills back up. All right.

 

Woodson Dunavant  40:27

Sounds good, Jeff, appreciate it. So much

 

Jeff Eizenberg  40:29

Appreciate the time. Yep. Take care. Thank you.

 

 

This transcript was compiled automatically via Otter.AI and as such may include typos and errors the artificial intelligence did not pick up correctly.

 

04 Nov 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 21 – NOVEMBER 4

Corn had small losses on the week again as it has been range bound the last month. The market holding at this level certainly is not a bad thing when it traded $1 lower than current levels in July, it just needs a catalyst to push it one way or the other. The catalyst could be next week’s USDA Report as there could always be a surprise or two for the market. Many estimates see the USDA raising production from the October estimates, but by how much will be the question.  Ultimately with US harvest coming to a close and South America ramping up, the global outlook and weather will begin to dominate the markets. The US will also need plenty of moisture over the coming weeks and winter to 1. Raise river levels to help grain exports and 2. Improve subsoil moisture heading into 2023. Exports remain underwhelming and will likely be lowered for the year in next week’s report.

Via Barchart

Unlike Corn, Beans have had a much wider range after an initial flat start to harvest have rallied back hard over the past 2 weeks. This move higher is welcome and appears to be heading toward a test of the highs from early September – can it break through?  The USDA report will be the big news next week along with any news out of South America for weather and China potentially coming out of zero covid restrictions. Like corn, the USDA will likely raise US production next week and may lower exports. For any sustained move higher China will need to be a regular buyer and South American conditions would need to become less favorable.

Via Barchart

Cotton has had quite the week with 4 days that traded limit up at one point. With a lot of speculative positions in the market being short, this could be seen as a short covering rally as specs must exit their positions before expiration. On the physical side, the global cash market is a mess. Mills have massive inventories of both cotton and converted goods with no companies buying. The lack of buying by apparel companies shows their concern for the holiday season as inflation and market uncertainty will weigh on spending this year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have gained over the last 2 weeks; however, gains were muted after the Fed raised rates another 75 points earlier this week. This was expected but the comments by chair Powell after they came out were more hawkish than expected setting up an interesting point in next month’s meeting. Powell said the Fed is not likely to slow down yet setting up the potential for another 75 points in December, while analysts were leaning towards 50 before he spoke. The unemployment rate did tick higher in October while many companies also announced hiring freezes and grim outlooks for the first half of 2023. Crude oil spiked back above $90 a barrel on Friday continuing to bolster energy stocks. Midterm elections next week will also be closely watched as it may lay out what, if anything, will be done over the next 2 years.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].