It wasn’t long ago that eggs were the unexpected face of grocery inflation. But in 2025, a new item has taken the crown: beef.
According to CNN, retail beef prices hit a record $9.26 per pound in June, a 10% increase from last year. For many shoppers, that makes beef a luxury—and forces families to rethink everything from weeknight dinners to backyard cookouts.
The Herd Is Shrinking, and So Is Supply
The sharp rise in beef prices is less about short-term inflation and more about long-term challenges that have piled up across the cattle industry.
“Beef prices, soaring to a record $8.15 per pound in June 2025, are straining consumers, and we believe these levels are unsustainable,”
said Jeff Apel, Managing Director at Wharton Capital Management.
“With the U.S. cattle herd at a 74-year low of 86 million head and 11.1 million on feed (just 1% below the five-year average), even a 4% production increase and 60% import surge can’t keep up with demand.”
Much of the current squeeze was baked in years ago. From 2016–2020, drought conditions, high feed costs, and poor profitability led to what some are calling the biggest beef cow herd liquidation in U.S. history.
The result? A major supply drop that collided with strong demand, pushing wholesale prices and cutouts to historic highs, while beef packers face negative operating margins.
Chicken Is Winning: How Consumers Are Reacting
Consumers are adjusting fast. Just as we saw shoppers switch from eggs to oatmeal or yogurt during the 2023 egg spike, they’re now pivoting from beef to chicken and pork, both of which are significantly more affordable.
Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are already prioritizing chicken, and retailers are leaning harder into pork.
Apel notes:
“Consumers are already switching to affordable proteins like chicken. As back-to-school and holiday seasons near, retailers may need to trim margins to sustain sales and relieve shoppers’ budgets.”
[Source: USDA, Expana Comtell]
Chart: “Retail Beef Price vs. Chicken & Pork”
This side-by-side pricing visual underscores the growing gap between beef and its more budget-friendly competitors.
[Source: USDA]
This chart shows that cattle are being held longer and fed to heavier weights. So even though the number of animals at slaughter plants is down year over year, the added weight per animal is boosting total production, helping to partially offset the tight supply.
What’s Next? No Quick Fix
While grass conditions have improved, allowing for future herd rebuilding, supply relief won’t happen overnight. Even with more imports, the U.S. market is structurally tight.
The end of grilling season usually brings some price relief, but that hasn’t materialized in 2025… at least not yet. However, the beef cutout has finally started to show signs of softening.
“Abundant grass for herd expansion should ease supply constraints over time, making sky-high live cattle and wholesale prices hard to justify long-term,” said Apel.
“Demand pulled prices higher with 6% larger kills for a few years. Will it continue to remain strong, or will demand shift as supplies remain 4% less arguably into and through 2026? Will demand be 10% less into a 4% smaller supply, thus yielding lower prices?”
Chart: “Beef Cutout”
This chart reflects the record-high wholesale prices that are squeezing both producers and consumers.
[Source: USDA]
Final Thoughts: A New Inflation Symbol
In commodity markets, they say: “The cure for high prices is high prices.” But beef consumers haven’t reached their breaking point just yet, though many are clearly on the edge.
Eggs may have defined the inflation narrative of 2023, but beef is rewriting that story halfway through 2025. Unless demand softens or supply rebounds meaningfully, the cost of steak will continue to sizzle.
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