The Leonard Lumber Report: The market continued its drift lower as the cash market was silent
Commentary:
The market continued its drift lower as the cash market was silent. At this point I think you need to begin the process of determining value. March futures sit at $370. That is the lowest price seen since April of 2020. $370 is not low if you compare it to the last 50 years. It is low if you compare it with the last 5. So, the question today is whether the recession is going to be deep or mild? If you answer the recession question, then you also answered the value question.
A recession is slowed by infusing the system with capital. We have never had so much available capital in the marketplace in history. That money sitting there needs to be used. Is that enough to soften the recession? I don’t know. I’m guessing that the recession doesn’t need to be that deep, but the trickle-down funding process could keep it dragging on. That won’t kill the housing market. If the recession is going to be mild, then this industry needs a buy round. There hasn’t been a good buy since October. One is needed today just to get the players back in the game. It will be short and not cause much of a rebound but is needed. Buying wood at $330 or lower is a low-risk investment. It’s hard to believe the pushback. I’m not looking for a reversal in the trend. With supply and demand going in opposite directions the clean-up will take time.
Technical:
The fundemental and technical picture is one in the same today. The RSI in March is at 34% at its contract low. That is not bullish. It keeps making new lows and not getting oversold. If you look at cash it also keeps trading lower and not finding any interest. While both are due a bounce, the bottom building process is just that a process. A good visual is if you draw a line from the high in Feb of 2010 at 327.50 straight accross till today. The market has some downside potiential and a hell of a lot of upside. The shortside of the trade is difficult from now on. Tell that to the funds.
NEW CONTRACT:
Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest
CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
Lumber & Wood Pulp Options
https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf
About the Leonard Report:
The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.
Brian Leonard
312-761-2636