Tag: agriculture

Recap:

What is the definition of insanity? Hoping the market will rise to get a better hedge in place. That’s where the trade was coming into last week, only to see the market give back over two weeks of gains in a few minutes. What made it worse is that the market continued to decline for the rest of the week. The January contract settled at 619.50, which is still a good place to hedge, barring any shutdown announcement.  The fundamentals point to a well-supplied pipeline. This is early in the cycle and will need a pickup in demand to clean it up before going into the first quarter decision time. There is nothing out there to indicate that possibility. What is more likely to occur is more shutdown news. That will increase the buying patterns. The issue is that you are just throwing more wood on the pile. It still needs to go out the door. A substantial announcement tomorrow would spike prices but then end up being bearish.

The January contract at $600 equates to $490 mill. The mills have no choice but to find ways to lessen their losses. That will keep a slight premium in the market. $600 January might be a good support area with the current dynamics. There would have to be some undefined issues in housing lurking to think we are going back to last year’s lows.

Technical:

The good news after last week’s debacle is that the January contract broke through the 61% retracement area of $618.20 and then closed above it. That isn’t a glass-half-full statement; rather, the glass has a few drops left in it. Fridays are tough to gauge. More rumors were swirling about potential shutdowns, which could have prompted added short covering late. Whatever the case, we will see direction right off the bat tomorrow. The downside momentum is in place. It will start again when the bell rings. If not, the market is in correction mode.

This is a tough time. The spread is indicating that the November expiration will be weak. It will be hard to build a bullish case in January with a Nov heading towards zero. You have three weeks of rumors and November selling in front of you.

Weekly Recap:

The market has a firmer tone to it. Both cash and futures found support last week. Cash still struggles to find support for all items. That keeps the marketplace on edge. History tells us that distressed items like OSB or SYP will limit any spruce move. The difference this time is the fact that the market is firming on its own. Rumors help the futures market, but actual business supports cash. Bringing it back to futures, November was up $26 for the week with a Friday spike to $600. We spent the last 5 months looking for the catalyst to push prices higher. We go into next week looking for data to push it lower. That’s a good thing. It feels like a few years ago when the conversation centered on the price of production, with 1.3 starts and closures. It added up to the $620 futures number. Unforeseen was the drastic drop in all Chinese imports and the oversupply of OSB. All that has now been factored in. The question now becomes whether $620 futures and $508 cash are the magic numbers? We are not out of the woods, but the industry has become permabears. We saw that at the beginning of the summer, only to see November futures hit $712 on August 1st. “Hedge the premium and hope you lose money.”

The futures dynamics are returning to normal as the fund’s short positions start to dominate the open interest. The industry remains heavily long. This year, the industry has stayed in sync, while the funds have not. Spreaders are eager on this one, but history shows the industry often rolls longs to match the funds rolling shorts. This one isn’t an easy win.

Technical:

The outlook for the upcoming week is based on an if/then projection strategy. The 21-day moving average crossed above the 13-day on Friday. If that trend holds, the next target is the 38% retracement of 617.20. From there, we’ll consider 635.00 and beyond. The same pattern played out during the last two rallies. Positive fundamental data over the next few weeks will gradually develop; for now, it’s all about the technicals.

“If you got long each time a rumor was sent out, you would have been buying the highs and exiting on a new low.” What a great observation. The news that a mill would operate for 4 days and curtail production sent the futures market sharply higher on Friday. To put things in perspective, considering all the positive spins last week, the November futures closed down $1.50. Today, closing or curbing production is an extreme move. It comes after the mills fill up the K-Mart parking lots, expand the vendor management programs, and establish unorthodox reload programs. In other words, when they have too much wood. This process is a slow chipping away of the excesses. I’ll be the first one to claim being way too early in the call for par. I’m worried demand is slipping, making the decreases a wash.

Another silent market killer is the fact that JIT has changed dramatically. There isn’t a day that the cash guys aren’t in the market. They continue to build long-term inventories, which is the opposite of JIT. The disciplined cash buyer has been the employee of the year for the last two years. When they buy it is at lower levels. That needs to change for the market to shift.

The rate cut will help the psychology of the market. It will be positive at some point in the months to come. For today, the industry wants a rally to hedge. The funds adding shorts can help with a pop. 

The Technical Read:

The biggest takeaway and risk I see today via the technical read is that November futures were at $712.00 on August 1st. We talked about how futures were at $418 in July of 2024. Well, August 1st. was only 30 sessions ago. That is a $200 swing in a flat market. There is no clever way to project the market. The simple answer is buying the discounts or selling premiums in futures, and then you turn off the emails. Today, the technical read is trying to indicate a slow bottom forming. We have been here before, only to see a sharp spike followed by new lows.

Under a 200-plus swing environment, there is no reason not to buy the cash items you need that are hitting new lows. There is no reason not to hedge at a significant premium. This is no longer a blocking and tackling drill. It is full pads, two-a-days. It’s all about discipline. It’s all about market parameters. It’s all about the plan.

Note: We were looking for a catastrophic September close. What if it spikes?