Category: Grain

16 Oct 2023

USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE

                     

                        2023 Yield Estimate:  173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Corn Stocks:  2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Corn Stocks:  312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) 

  • The USDA lowered US corn yield 0.5 bu/ac which is in line with what we have been hearing from farmers in the field with many areas having great yields but the July heat and dryness did too much damage in other areas. The USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels while also revising beginning stocks down 91 million bushels.

 

                       2023 Yield Estimate:  49.6 BPA (49.9 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Bean Stocks:  220 MBU (233 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Bean Stocks:  115.62 MMT (119.71 MMT Estimate)

  • The bean numbers were lowered as well with the USDA bringing yield down 0.5 bu/acre. The markets responded favorably to this while the USDA raised beginning stocks, lowered exports, and kept ending stocks the same at 220 million bushels. The drop in bean production was slightly offset by the lowered exports and higher crush.

 

                        23/24 US Wheat Stocks:  670 MBU (647 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Wheat Stocks:  258.13 MMT (258.38 MMT Estimate)

  • The world wheat picture is still clouded by conflict between Russia and Ukraine but the USDA lowered world ending stocks while raising US ending stocks. The Australian wheat crop was lowered 1.5 mmt.

 

Overview:

The USDA gave bulls some life after a sideways trade in corn and lower bean trade the last 2 months. As harvest continues to roll the picture will become clearer but the record low levels on the Mississippi River are being monitored and could lead to the same problems last time this happened with bottlenecks in the export space. As the war in Ukraine continues, war in Israel (a US ally) and the continued tensions between China and Taiwan, the world geopolitical climate is tense and could have ripple effects in world trade.   

December 2023 Corn

November 2023 Beans

December 2023 Wheat

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2023

USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview

First Glance:

Overview:

The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 range. The bottom line is that the USDA took away part of the only potentially bullish story in beans while reminding everyone that the world grain markets are well supplied after Brazil and Russia’s record crops and their willingness to be the world’s cheapest source of corn and wheat.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

17 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 1 – 15

The September USDA Report this week did not give the bulls much to work with, having yield come in above estimates at 175.8 bu/ac and increasing planted acres by 800,000. The increased acreage and yield would still result in a record crop of 15.134 billion bushels despite the drought conditions that bookended this growing season. The largest sale of corn to China since April occurred this week as they made a purchase at the lowest prices in months even with a strong USD. While the markets trade the USDA report, the cash markets in areas are telling a different story with strong seasonal basis and poor crop ratings. Combines will get rolling in the coming weeks and will tell the story of this crop.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell following the report as well, with the numbers coming in close to expectations but not enough to spark high volumes of buying. The US soybean yield of 50.1 bu/ac following the brutal heat over the end of August and start of September did damage to this crop, but to what extent is hard to tell. The soybean balance sheets are tight for ending stocks and any lower yield from here would eat further into it. The soybean crush numbers were disappointing to end the week, but the stocks were low hinting at the lack of soybeans out in the market currently.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been mixed the past couple weeks with various economic data coming in including CPI of 3.7%, slightly hotter than expected, for the month of August. The markets will continue to process data now that earnings are mostly done with, and the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again. The soft landing is still in play, but any economic surprises could derail that.

Via CNBC

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

05 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 21 – SEPTEMBER 1

Corn has been range bound lately looking for anything to give it direction. The heat and dryness currently happening across most of the US is bullish, but the rains and cool weather before may have given this crop enough to weather the heat. There has been some rain added to the forecast but far enough out to not get too excited about yet. Exports remain steady and within expectations with no major changes expected. Corn has been held down with wheat while Russia sells their wheat for cheap on the world market to pay for the war in Ukraine. Last week’s Pro Farmer tour came back with a 172 bu/ac yield for the US, below the latest USDA report by over 3 bu/ac. While many estimates think the latest USDA is still probably too high, a 172 yield is closer to other estimates even with the current heat. The long weekend always allows for news to change and create a volatile trade to start next week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell this week following helpful rains before the heat. The Pro Farmer tour estimated the US crop to be 49.7 bu/ac, below the USDA projection of 50.9 bu/ac. The soybean balance sheets are tighter than corn and will only get worse the more this crop shrinks down the stretch. New crop sales are well behind USDA projections of an 8% decrease for the 23/24 marketing year, currently running 37% behind last year’s pace. With a shrinking crop it is hard to expect export sales to significantly ramp up but if drought conditions continue with heat and river levels stay low we could see logistic problems again this year. The next few weeks will be important to finish this crop but with harvest approaching most of the damage has likely been done.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied over the last two weeks with some important stocks posting strong quarters such as Nvidia. After a tough August the markets will look to bounce back in September with economic data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

25 Aug 2023

The Role of Commercials and End Users in the Agriculture Industry: Understanding Price/Volatility Risk and Proactive Risk Management

Introduction

The penultimate step of the process for grain is reaching a commercial elevator before going to an end-user to be converted to a final product. These elevators range in size from your local country elevator with little storage capacity to large elevators with millions of bushels capacity. While some producers deliver straight to the end user in areas where that is an option, commercial elevators handle millions and millions of bushels a year of almost every commodity grown in the US. Once the elevators receive the grain, they ship it to the end-user by rail, barge, or other means.

Commercials and How They Fit In

While commercial elevators come towards the end of the process, they have made selling grain as a farmer easier with convenient locations and increased capacity. Railroads played the largest role in the growth and expansion of the United States in the West, which directly led to the growth in farming in the late 1800s. While all elevators are not along railroads or major waterways, you will find the larger ones here as these locations allow for more volume.

On-farm and off-farm storage (elevators) for grains have grown over the years as the US produces more and more while the world consumes it. For the last 20 years, storage capacities have grown close to even with the increase in production and will continue to grow as the world population grows and more supply is needed.

Another example of a commercial facility would be a crush facility. The growth of soybean crush capacity has expanded in the last several years and looks to continue as the demand for soybean oil used in renewable diesel continues to grow. The growth in renewable diesel over the last few years and years to come have made crush facilities a major commercial player now and will only get bigger in the future. Crush facilities close to the growers allow easier access to the beans and competitive prices increase demand.

While it will take time, we will see a shift from soybean meal to soybean oil as the main product coming from these crush facilities. Clean Fuels Alliance America projected renewable diesel production could hit 5.5 billion gallons but 2026 if expansions and new facilities continue. This increase would raise demand for more soy oil, changing the commercial structure that the US has seen in the last 20 years.

End Users and Their Role

End users consume the commodity in all sorts of ways. From feed yards to crush facilities (who then sell the oil and meal) to food production companies, end users cover a wide range of groups. These users face risk on several sides, with the cost of inputs going up and the value of their finished product going down due to other factors. End users face basic economic factors such as recessions and inflation that will affect their revenue, making them adjust their plans of inputs.

While the easy way to think about end users is who makes your cereal, it is crucial to remember how large the commodity space is and that it touches almost every industry. Homebuilders are end users and have seen an increase in their inputs, with lumber moving higher in 2021 before moving lower. If these types of companies cannot effectively manage their risk, it can cost consumers hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars each year.

Proactive and Disciplined Risk Management

Along with the enormous capacity, commercials, and end users also carry a tremendous amount of price/volatility risk requiring a proactive and disciplined risk management approach to maximize the margins of their operation and keep the system moving forward.

Today’s volatile markets have brought unprecedented levels of risk and reward, highlighting the significance of adapting to this environment. With its interdependent supply chain, the agriculture sector is particularly susceptible to the ripple effects of market fluctuations. This is especially true in the current inflation landscape, soaring prices, energy scarcity, and labor shortages.

How RCM Ag Services works with Commercials

RCM Ag Services utilizes our independent standing, national producer reach, and tech partnerships to bring our commercial agriculture customers best-in-class tools and resources to improve efficiency, increase revenues, and generate more customer volume. With our suite of tools and products, your operation can share in markup on products, improve risk management, achieve better FCM clearing rates, and produce more bushels.

Our market commentary allows commercial elevators to keep up with what is going on all over the country and other parts of the world in an easy-to-read and follow format. This allows you to focus on your operation and make it run to its best ability.

For more information on how RCM Ag Services can support your team, follow the link below. https://rcmagservices.com/commercial-agriculture/

21 Aug 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 4 – 21

Corn had a rough two weeks with the cool and wet weather that covered large areas of the US coming just in time on a stressed crop. The August 11 USDA Report came in with a 175.1 bu/acre US yield, slightly below trade estimates. This yield seems very reasonable with the early drought stress and the recent rains to help stabilize the crop. The scorching heat and dry weather coming to most of the US the next week+ will stress the crop but the areas that are no longer experiencing drought conditions (see drought charts below) are positioned to handle it. The ProFarmer crop tour is this week and will give insights into what to expect from this crop and give insights we do not get from the USDA. If the USDA updates the planted acres lower from 94 million in September that will be news the market has eyes on.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have held together well over the last couple of months with the low acreage number supporting it. The weather was not great for beans early on, but like corn, the last couple of weeks have been very beneficial and the heat over the next 10 days can cause some issues. The USDA updated their yield estimates to 50.9 bu/acre, below the trade estimates and previous report but also a reasonable number with how the growing season has gone so far. Bean demand appears to be increasing and if this continues into harvest, momentum behind beans could give it another push that corn seems to be missing. The ProFarmer crop tour will be the news this week along with the hot dry weather, an adjustment to acres down the road is a variable that can change the look of this crop.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have struggled the last few weeks as tech stocks stopped pulling the markets higher and seasonal trends took over. Earnings season is almost over with only a few big names left to report. Inflation and the Fed will be the news moving forward as markets are still unsure what their next move is.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

04 Aug 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 20 – AUGUST 4

As quickly as corn rallied to get back over $5.50, the rains and favorable forecasts for August led it back below $5 just as quickly. The rains in late July provided much needed moisture over much of the corn belt, but as you can see in the drought charts below, varying levels of drought conditions remain. The forecast has shifted drier for August but after a record hot July, August is forecasted to be cooler. Reports of how much damage the first half of summer did to this crop are all over the place, which usually means it is somewhere in the middle. A 180+ yield is probably off the table, but a 172 yield seems to be just as unlikely unless the forecasts change to hot and dry for a long stretch soon. Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian ports in Odesa and the Danube River continue as the markets seem to shrug off any new damage. Over the weekend any forecast changes, new developments in Ukraine or world news will determine what the trade does to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have a similar story to corn this week but were able to avoid the late June collapse that corn saw thanks to the low acreage number. StoneX estimate for bean yield this week was 50.5 bu/ac which would be a supportive number for beans, especially if the acreage number is accurate. China has begun showing up as frequent buyers in export reports helping the demand story that was questionable on world economic worries not too long ago. The lack of bullish news is good news for the bears as no news markets rarely tend to move higher. Weather in August will be important for this crop and next week’s USDA report will give us more information on US production.

Via Barchart

Recent News

Click HERE to listen to RCM Ag Services’ Jody Lawrence join AgriTalk a couple weeks ago to discuss the current market.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and beans lower for similar reasons. The markets have shrugged off Russian aggression of late but will be watching over the weekend for any escalation.

Equity Markets

The equity markets suffered losses this week with a big down day on Wednesday when Fitch downgraded US debt to AA+ and earnings continue to roll in. The job market seems to be moderating as hiring was slightly weaker than the previous month. The markets are looking for numbers that will keep the economy and markets going while also giving the Fed the signal to stop raising rates. This is a fine line that can feel like walking on eggshells with a long-predicted recession still the worry of most investors.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

02 Aug 2023

Agricultural Risk: The Role of Intermediaries

Agricultural Risk: The Role of Intermediaries

Agriculture is an inherently risky business. Growers and farmers face a wide range of risks, including weather-related events, changes in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions. These risks not only affect the farmers but also impact every actor along the supply chain, from processors and distributors to retailers and consumers. This blog will discuss the importance of intermediaries in managing agricultural risk.

Several types of intermediaries play a crucial role in managing agricultural risk. Futures commission merchants (FCMs) are one such intermediary. They provide access to commodity futures markets, where farmers can manage price risk by buying or selling futures contracts. Exchanges, such as the Chicago Board of Trade, also play a critical role in managing risk by providing a platform for price discovery and risk management.

Types of Intermediaries:

Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs):

FCMs are regulated entities that act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers in commodity futures markets. They facilitate trades, provide margin financing, and manage the risk exposure of market participants.

Exchanges:

Commodity exchanges are marketplaces where buyers and sellers can trade standardized commodity contracts, such as futures and options. Examples of exchanges include the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Brokers/Farm Advisors:

Brokers and farm advisors provide hedging services and market knowledge to help growers and other market participants manage price risks. They can help with market analysis, risk assessments, and hedging strategies.

Originators/Merchandisers:

Originators and merchandisers are intermediaries who connect buyers and sellers of agricultural commodities. They can help farmers and growers find markets for their products and help buyers source the commodities they need.

Co-ops:

Co-ops are farmer-owned organizations that provide services such as grain storage, handling, and marketing. In some cases, they function as elevators, buying grain from farmers and selling it to end-users.

University Extension Offices:

University extension offices provide research, education, and outreach services to the agricultural community. They can help farmers and growers stay informed about new technologies, best practices, and market trends.

Importance in the Big Picture:

Intermediaries are essential to the smooth functioning of agricultural markets. They help manage risk exposure along the supply chain and facilitate the movement of commodities from producers to end-users. Farmers and growers would face more price volatility and uncertainty without intermediaries, and end-users would face supply shortages and price spikes.

RCM Ag Services: Your Trusted Partner for Agricultural Intermediary Services

At RCM Ag Services, we provide a range of intermediary services to the agricultural community. We offer futures and options brokerage, cash grain marketing, risk management consulting, and crop insurance services. Our team of experienced professionals can help farmers and growers manage price risks and navigate the complex world of agricultural markets.

 

25 Jul 2023

Listen: Jody Lawrence recently joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk to discuss current markets

Recently RCM Ag Services’ director of research, Jody Lawrence, jumped on “AgriTalk with Chip Flory” after they both spoke at an event in Memphis for Helena Agribusiness. During the discussion Jody and Chip dive into the recent events in the commodities space hitting several topics including:

  • The war in Ukraine continuing to impact the world grain supply. The suspension of the export corridor and escalation of the war and its impact on markets.
  • Drought conditions in the US at the start of the year damaged the crop in many areas but how much? Is 177.5 bpa still too high?
  • The recent USDA Report numbers and did 94 million acres of corn really get planted?
  • Balance Sheets and the disconnect between them and what the cash market and basis tells us
  • And More

The audio is below to listen to parts of their discussion and get more insight into their thoughts on what to expect moving forward.

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-1

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-2

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

21 Jul 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 7 – 20

Corn has seen a strong rally after falling following the USDA Report last Wednesday. The USDA estimated the US crop to have a 177.6 bu/ac yield this year following the rough start to growing season with drought conditions over most growing areas. While the rains have been beneficial in providing relief, this crop needs a lot more rain in the form of soaking rains and not storms with straight line winds. If the hot and dry pattern returns expect to see prices move higher. Russia has threatened that they will treat any ship entering the now closed grain corridor as a military vessel has tensions in the Black Sea region high again. The longer this new standoff drags out the more support it will provide grains. The collapse of the USD and inconsistent weather can help support this move higher after a bearish USDA report depending on the future forecasts and technical trading.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have enjoyed a great run over the last month and half as soybeans got back over $14 this week. After a low acreage number and not an ideal start to the summer beans have had a great last 2 months. The forecast hot dry stretch coming up is expected to put more stress on this crop as we head into the end of July and start of August. With tightening world balance sheets it will be hard for funds to get over extended short but every weekend provides the opportunity for surprise rains and new market surprises.

Via Barchart

The big news of the week was Russia threatening all vessels that enter the region as military vessels, escalating the tensions and ending the grain corridor for the time being. Russia keeps attacking Odessa which will damage the remaining infrastructure and could present even more challenges if/when the grain deal resumes. The Russian ambassador to the US has said that Russia is not preparing to attack civilian ships in the Black Sea, though previously the Russian Defense Ministry announced that all ships traveling to Ukrainian Black Sea ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo, and the southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea’s international waters should be considered unsafe for navigation.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their strength the past couple of weeks with CPI coming in slightly lower than expected (by 0.1%) at 3%. While inflation is still above the target of 2% the slow decrease over time is helping it come down while core inflation, 4.8%, follows the same pattern. The Fed decision at the end of the month is likely to result in a ¼ point rate hike as we head into earnings season next week. Tech stocks took their largest losses that we have seen recently on Wednesday as earnings have begun being posted.

Via Barchart

US Dollar

The US Dollar hit its lowest level in a year this week as the greenback fell below the 100 level. This should help ag exports be competitive on the world stage but the sharp decline from the 103-level last week was surprising.

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].