DOW Jones Archives - RCM Ag Services

07 Oct 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – OCTOBER 4

Corn’s rally back to $4.25 has been welcome heading into harvest as South America’s weather started off a little weary but have added rains to the upcoming forecast. The US drought to end growing season does not appear to have impacted the corn crop very much. Export demand has picked up putting us ahead of the USDA annual projections. The recent rally has taken corn above other major exporters which will likely lead to slowing exports unless South American weather becomes more of a concern. Harvest has gotten off to an average start with 21% harvested as dry weather shouldn’t cause any problems in the next week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans faded to end the week as harvest progress and pressure lead to profit taking after the recent rally. The biggest news related to soybeans, non harvest related, is that congress seems to be working on bipartisan legislature to address the importing of used cooking oil while still collecting tax credits. The American farmer wants this loophole closed to force biofuel producers in the US to use domestic production. This will lead to millions of more bushels used at crush facilities in the US throughout the year with a major question of, what happens to the bean meal? The longer congress and the lobbying associations take on this legislature will lead to more frustration among farmers across the country so with it being an election year I would be careful with what gets “leaked” by parties involved. The end of year drought across much of the US likely led to a smaller crop as pods did not get the moisture needed for max fill. Bean harvest is slightly ahead of expectations at 26% to start the week of Sept 30.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue to roll hitting new all-time highs as Fed rate cuts and the likelihood of a soft landing becomes higher. The market has broadened out but the biggest names (Nvidia, Meta, etc) are still doing well. With rates lowering over the next year expect money that has been getting 5%+ in fixed income to begin to move back into the market. Chinese stimulus prompted a large rally in Chinese stocks this week as they try to get their economy going again.

Via Barchart

Other News

The Fed announced a 50-basis point rate cut this month, cutting rates for the first time since the Pandemic. More rates are expected into the end of the year.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated as Iran launched attacks on Israel. Israel is expected to respond but how and when remain unknown, with attacks on oil fields a possibility crude oil rallied over the week.
Hurricane Helene caused massive devastation in the United States Southeast over the weekend causing loss of life and destruction of major infrastructure. The total amount of damage is still unknown, but it will take the mountain communities a long time to recover.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

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Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

12 Aug 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 22 – AUGUST 12

Corn moved lower in the last couple weeks to trade around $4 heading into the August 12^th USDA report. While the market saw small gains after the report, the numbers will continue to put pressure on corn as a record crop is headed our way. The August report has the US crop with a 183.1 bpa, 15.147-billion-bushel production, with good weather in the forecast there is not much to push this market higher currently. While these numbers are more bearish than expected, the market response to finish higher is a welcome sight after another move lower.

Via Barchart

Beans have very little positive news behind them as you can see from the chart. The US yield was bumped to a would be record of 53.2 bpa while harvested acres were 1.2 million acres higher than the trade was expecting, neither are good for prices. Brazil planting will get rolling in about a month with acreage expansion expected again. With prices this low, the acreage expansion will not be as straight forward as in the past but with no weather issues here or in South America there is not much supporting beans. Corn and beans would both greatly benefit from funds getting out of some short positions.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile over the last couple weeks with last Monday seeing some huge swings in global equity markets. With rate cuts expected in September and a big week of economic news we should get a better idea of what to expect heading into the election.

Via Barchart

Other News

Election years add another wrinkle in the markets as Kamala Harris’ campaign has been off to a fast start naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as VP running mate ahead of the DNC in Chicago next week.
Escalation in war in Israel/Gaza and Ukraine/Russia will be worth keeping an eye on as it could lead to issues in global energy supply.
Wheat numbers were slightly bullish in the report with production and stocks below estimates

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

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08 Jul 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 14 – JULY 8

Corn had the bottom fall out of it after trading between $4.60 and $5 from March to June. The USDA last week pegged the US corn crop at 91.475 million acres, over 1 million acres higher than the trade estimate. The USDA did make a note that those were the reported acres at the time of the survey so there is a good chance not all those acres end up getting planted. The crop ratings are currently better than last year’s at this time that led to a record crop and with no major weather concerns on the horizon and rains from Beryl expected to help some areas in the ECB later this week. With no major weather concern in the US or abroad right now, corn will need to find help in demand or fund buying as ending stocks remain high.

Via Barchart

Beans seemed to find a slight rally heading into the 4^th of July before having a sharply lower start to the week, falling below $12 in the November futures contract. While the corn acreage number was bearish the soybean acres came in at 86.1 million acres (below the trade estimate of 86.783). The June 1^st stocks number was slightly higher, but the markets could not find a catalyst higher. With no major weather issues on the horizon beans will need the funds to get out of their short positions while the charts still look bearish.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have remained strong as they continue to set new highs. The market is looking to broaden after being very top heavy the first half of the year. With an election and possible rate cuts in the second half of this year, the market will have plenty of information outside of earnings to watch for.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

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13 May 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10

Corn has seen a strong rally over the last couple of weeks as planting is slightly delayed in parts of the US and funds seem to have changed their tone a bit. Last week’s USDA Report did not have any earth-shattering news but did provide some good news for the markets. US corn stocks were lower than estimates heading into the report along with world stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25. The production outlook for this year, 181 bu/ac, continues to show how the advances in agronomic practices and seed genetics continue to grow. All of these carryout and stocks numbers are based on those production estimates so if we begin to see weather issues or problems at the end of planting, we could continue to see revisions to the downside, and vice versa with great weather and conditions.

Via Barchart

Beans had a rough week after a strong start to May. The USDA Report leaned bearish as the South American production continues to expand for the upcoming year. The USDA is slowly trimming Brazil’s bean crop but is still above CONAB’s estimates by a bout 300 million bushels. The recent flooding in southern Brazil will force their hand to lower their expectations but the CONAB estimates on losses will be closely watched. Another promising development in the report was the expectation of record imports and usage in China. While much of this is expected to be met by Brazil and issues with their production will still need to be met.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rebounded over the last couple weeks with earnings season going on. The feeling on Fed rate cuts keeps pushing them back with one not expected until the fall and at least one fed chair thinking we may not get one this year as inflation remains sticky. Rates will remain data dependent but the feeling of higher for longer continues to seem more likely.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton has fallen well off the February and March highs as the lack of demand in the global market mixed with funds exiting their long positions has beaten down the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat

Wheat’s recent rallies are welcome after struggling to find much positive movement in the market to start the year. Frost damage to Russia’s wheat crop and a dry pattern in the Black Sea has been the recent mover as the USDA Report had some mixed numbers. Smaller than expected US stocks, 24/25 world stocks and total production with higher than expected world wheat stocks for 23/24.

Other News

Conflict continues between Israel and Palestine as a ceasefire has been negotiated on many sides, but nothing has been agreed to yet.
Major flooding across southern Brazil has killed thousands of livestock and will have an impact on their crop but the extent of which is not known yet

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

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22 Apr 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 8 – 19

Corn continued its slow bleed lower over the last couple weeks with no major bullish news to turn this market around. US weather may slow planting down to end April a bit but not enough for markets to begin to worry anytime soon. Argentina’s rain will continue to slow harvest as the discrepancy between the USDA and South American reporting services remains a mystery. The bounce to end the week was due to escalation of the Israel and Hamas/Iran fighting in the middle east. According to Reuters the US EPA is expected to announce plans to temporarily waive restrictions on higher-ethanol gasoline blends this summer. This market is at the mercy of funds and weather which currently aren’t helping prices higher.

Via Barchart

Beans continued lower as they lost another 20+ cents this week even with the big up day on Friday. Beans need any good news they can get as you can see from the chart below it has been a rough few months. Soybean oil has also had a rough go lately as bullish news is lacking in the soybean complex. The size of the bean harvest with the USDA and CONAB numbers still far apart will be the biggest factor moving forward as we need all the information we can get. We did get close to the technical support which is good to see a bounce there.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their recent struggles as tech and AI stocks have given back some recent gains. Pullbacks are healthy for markets, especially after the run we have had to start the last few months being so concentrated, but sticky inflation and war escalation provides some problems to monitor as earnings are set to ramp up next week.

Via Barchart

Other News

Israel retaliated against Iran overnight continuing the escalation of tensions and war in the middle east.
The USD keeps moving higher as the June USD Index went over 106 earlier this week.
Cotton has struggled of late as a lack of demand on the global scale and no weather issues yet in the US pulled it back from recent highs.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

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18 Dec 2023

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 1 – 15

Corn has been rage bound for the last two weeks with no catalysts in the market to move it much either direction. The weather in South America has improved slightly in areas that got off to a tough start but doesn’t seem to have made much a difference on the market. It is still a wait and see approach for the South American crop, nobody wants to jump to conclusions. Th Biden administration is supporting tax credits for ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel, which would result in a major new demand source down the road. The markets will likely be muted in both volume and price movement as we head into the end of the year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have bounced around the last couple of weeks with a steady stream of exports and the Argentinian peso devaluation. The latest crush report from NOPA recorded a record for the month and about 3 million bushels more than pre-report estimates. The demand for beans has been there and seems to be significant but with so much time still to go before South America’s crop is known. Estimates keep shrinking the Bazil crop, which the market shrugs off, making it a hard market to be overly bullish in when good news is not met with good market reactions.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their run higher this week as the Fed kept rates steady and seem likely to begin cuts in 2024. The rest of the market has begun participating as the Magnificent 7 stocks had done most of the heavy lifting to this point. Analysts are still warry of a soft landing recession but for now the markets are moving higher in the short term.

Via Barchart

Other News

The Fed held rates steady this week with markets expecting them to start cutting in the first half of 2024.
Argentina devalued the peso by more than 50% to try and help the nation’s struggling economy.

Via Barchart.com

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01 Dec 2023

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9 – DECEMBER 1

Corn has had a rough month as it continues its sideways to lower grind after briefly touching $5.20 in October for the March contract. While there has not been any major market news to direct the market a strong weekly export report this week was welcome to the market that had been bleeding lower. The last few days saw a nice reversal, seeing a 14-cent rally off this week’s lows. Basis has taken a nosedive in many areas of the country hinting that there may be more corn out there than initially expected. With harvest all but wrapped up for most of the country it will be worth keeping an eye on whether farmers store the corn and hope for better basis or get it off their books to pay back operating loans at the highest rates we have seen in years. Brazil’s weather remains about the same with beneficial rains expected over the next couple of weeks in the drier areas north and the south remains wet.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have fallen over the last couple of weeks but is in a sideways trade in the big picture. Exports were not as strong as corn but better than expected. Brazil’s weather is the main focus for beans right now as the north is drier than normal and the south is still wet. The bean demand from China is welcome, as always, but sustained demand and not just demand while Brazil is having logistic issues will be important. The amount of rain in Brazil next week will be the main market mover until the report on Friday if we get some surprises.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a great November seeing strong gains across the board as the Fed speak has turned dovish and inflation continues to cool. The markets are pricing in the Fed beginning to cut rates in the first half of 2024 while the general consensus by large companies and funds is that a mild recession is still in the cards next year. The big names had a good month and the 10-year note fell, but it was encouraging to see some laggards join the party. The end of the year always involves some shuffling, but economic data will continue to move the markets now that earnings are past.

Via Barchart

Other News

Charlie Munger passed away this week at the age of 99. A longtime investor and one of the brightest minds for financial markets the Berkshire Hathaway investor left his mark and knowledge on the financial markets.
The next WASDE Report is Friday, December 8 at 12 ET
Brazil is set to join OPEC+. Brazil produces about 3.7 million barrels a day which makes it a top 10 oil producing country.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended as hostage swap negotiations stalled. The unrest in the Middle East will continue to dominate headlines.

Via Barchart.com

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09 Nov 2023

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9

The November USDA Report raised US yields and ending stocks. From what we have been hearing about yields in the eastern corn belt the rise in yields was not that unexpected while a 1.9 bu/ac jump higher to 174.9 was not quite expected. Rarely does the November report differ so much from the Sep/Oct yields, but the yields in IL, IN, and OH made up for losses seen in the western corn belt and plains. Current support is at $4.67 for Dec corn, but a close below that could lead lower. If that holds, we should expect the sideways trade we have seen for the next month+. US corn yield 174.9 bpa. Us corn production 15.234 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had seen a good run over the last couple of weeks until the USDA report took a hit. While beans are still well off their lows the report’s reaction saw beans lose 20 cents. Like corn, soybeans saw their yield increased to 49.9 bu/ac. The Chinese demand situation and northern Brazil’s dry weather have been bullish for beans and will be a bullish talking point if they last and the main news moving forward. US soybean yield 49.9 bu/ac. US soybean production 4.129 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had their longest winning streak of the year in the past couple weeks, climbing back from the latest move lower. Inflation is cooling and the Fed appeared to be done (for now) with changing rates which allows the market to take a deep breath as a “soft landing” appears attainable. Fed Chair Powell today said that he is not confident the Fed has achieved sufficiently restrictive rate to bring down inflation, allowing for some concern of further rate hikes. While earnings have not been stellar across the board strength in some important areas has given the markets fuel for this most recent rally.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton is a supply and demand story right now with ample supply and a lack of demand. World geopolitical issues and the risk of a recession have kept buying down as producers do not want to be stuck with inventory nobody wants to buy.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

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21 Aug 2023

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 4 – 21

Corn had a rough two weeks with the cool and wet weather that covered large areas of the US coming just in time on a stressed crop. The August 11 USDA Report came in with a 175.1 bu/acre US yield, slightly below trade estimates. This yield seems very reasonable with the early drought stress and the recent rains to help stabilize the crop. The scorching heat and dry weather coming to most of the US the next week+ will stress the crop but the areas that are no longer experiencing drought conditions (see drought charts below) are positioned to handle it. The ProFarmer crop tour is this week and will give insights into what to expect from this crop and give insights we do not get from the USDA. If the USDA updates the planted acres lower from 94 million in September that will be news the market has eyes on.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have held together well over the last couple of months with the low acreage number supporting it. The weather was not great for beans early on, but like corn, the last couple of weeks have been very beneficial and the heat over the next 10 days can cause some issues. The USDA updated their yield estimates to 50.9 bu/acre, below the trade estimates and previous report but also a reasonable number with how the growing season has gone so far. Bean demand appears to be increasing and if this continues into harvest, momentum behind beans could give it another push that corn seems to be missing. The ProFarmer crop tour will be the news this week along with the hot dry weather, an adjustment to acres down the road is a variable that can change the look of this crop.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have struggled the last few weeks as tech stocks stopped pulling the markets higher and seasonal trends took over. Earnings season is almost over with only a few big names left to report. Inflation and the Fed will be the news moving forward as markets are still unsure what their next move is.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

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07 Jul 2023

Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 7

Corn fell over the last couple weeks following the USDA coming out with 94 million planted acres, well above the March prospective plantings report. On top of the report there were widespread rains across the US over the end of June and start of July. While the drought conditions remain in most areas this rain was able to provide relief in much needed areas to buy it some time for another good rain. With La Nina setting in the potential for more rain and cooler temperatures could be what we see moving forward but how much damage was caused in May and June will be hard for the market to see. The export market has not provided any help with the slow pace continuing during the summer. If the dryness continues and the rain did not provide enough relief, we could see prices move back up after we get the USDA projected yield update on Wednesday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had the surprise of lower acres in the report with the USDA coming in at 83.5 million acres, a 4-million-acre shift from the March report. Soybeans got a big pop on this news after falling, like corn, when the chance of rain was added to the forecast for most areas. The pullback this week came as the rains helped this crop that was not in as needy a spot as corn was. The soybean acreage number will help raise the floor of where this crop could have gone with strong yields, but the low number will be the focus as balance sheets tighten. Weather will be the driver moving forward after the USDA report on Wednesday.

Via Barchart

The report last week for wheat was boring compared to corn and soybeans with little changes made. All wheat acres were reported at 49.628 million, down only 227,000 from the prospective plantings report. While the numbers did not seem bearish overall the USDA trimmed abandonment from 32.6% to 30.5%. Stocks remain tight but the lack of demand with Russia dominating the world markets leaves the US exporters in a tough spot. The lack of US demand does not seem to be changing anytime soon so paying to store wheat, hoping to profit from any bullish change, could cost you more when you include interest you need to pay back on operating loans. If you are looking to profit in this scenario using cheap options to own back on paper would make more sense.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have traded close to flat over the last two weeks trading higher then back lower. The jobs report came in hotter than expected again this week. The markets give the Fed almost a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. The markets have been lead higher by several stocks as we get to the halfway point, the question moving forward will be will they continue to lead and is there a recession on the horizon.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

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Tag: DOW Jones

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – OCTOBER 4

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 22 – AUGUST 12

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 14 – JULY 8

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 8 – 19

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 1 – 15

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9 – DECEMBER 1

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 4 – 21

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 7

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