Tag: futures

08 Jan 2024

Leonard Lumber Report: The futures trade last week looked flat

Recap:

On the surface, the futures trade last week looked flat. The net change for the week was up $2. In fact, the last seven sessions have seen closes within a $4 range. A digestion phase after the run-up? Underneath the surface, things are changing. We have shifted the fund shorts over to the industry. Wood is now hedged. We have also shifted some of the industry longs over to new fund longs. The makeup of the futures market today is friendly. It is not a signal to buy, but it could generate higher prices on its own.

The futures market is closed on Monday the 15th, so January expires on Friday. The current open interest is normal for five sessions to go. With the growing industry’s short number, we may see some upward pressure again. We could see a shift to expirations now having an upward bias.

As far as the cash market goes, it remains fluid. That has been the case for months now. It has the feel of the covid slowdown that never occurred. This time, we spent a year expecting a recession and higher unemployment. What we found was steady business.

With mills coming back online and wholesalers owning wood, it could be sloppy for a while. The funds are the key.

This recent sideways trade is nearing an end…….

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

02 Nov 2022

So, Harvest is Done, and Your Grain Bins are Full, What Now?

Grain storage has expanded across the country over the last decades as farmers try and time selling to maximize profit potential. While holding the grain until you decide to make a sale is one option, there are several different strategies when it comes to managing the grain. In this short piece we will look at the 4 main strategies and talk about the potential benefits and risks.

1. Hold in bin

As stated above the “sit and hold” method is the most basic and long used method of grain storage. This method makes you long the market as you hope that prices go up from harvest levels over the course of the next year. You are long the market because you will only profit if prices go up, if prices go lower, you miss out on what a sale at harvest could have been.

Here are a few risks that come with this method:

  • Price deterioration
    • If prices for future months is lower, or moves lower before your sale, you miss out on the price difference between harvest price and sale price. There are numerous factors that can cause this making it your biggest risk.
  • Cost of storage
    • Running storage bins to keep the quality of the grain at deliverable levels costs money that will cut into the profit potential the longer it is stored.
  • Act of God
    • While insurance covers AOGs in most situations it is still very much a risk as many farmers face the threat of strong storms and the damage that comes with it.

 

Now the potential benefits:

  • Price appreciation
    • The price for future months could go higher, by either improving futures prices or improved basis, and you could potentially profit making a sale at a higher price (minus the extra costs of storage)
  • Taxes
    • The timing of sales obviously affects your income, meaning there will always be taxes involved. Pay them now or pay them later…Uncle Sam always wins, but if you can write off against income, DO IT.

 

These are the basic costs and benefits of this method. While this is the most popular method it does carry the risk of prices falling below your breakeven from factors completely out of your control. Now let’s look at the other methods that involve active risk management.

2. Sell and re-own the board

This strategy is for farmers who do not want to store the grain, or do not have the storage, but don’t want to miss out on the potential of higher prices. You can sell the grain to your preferred elevator (lock in a future delivery or current) and buy futures or options to try and take advantage of a price increase. The downside to this is that if the prices move lower, you lose whatever difference is between your sale and the future price.

Examples:

You sell 10,000 bushels of corn for $6.50 Dec contract with +$0.20 basis for a $6.70 sale. You think prices are going to go up over the winter, so you purchase 2 March futures contracts at the current market value of $6.60. Your hunch was correct and March futures goes up to $7.00 and you take profit on your trade by selling them to capture the $0.40 profit minus fees and commissions*. This makes your corn sale equal to $7.10 ($6.50 sale + $0.40 trade profit + $0.20 basis – minus fees and commissions* = $7.10).

Now suppose you were wrong, and prices go down. Using the same information above but prices of the March contract go lower to $6.20. This would result in a loss of $0.40 plus fees and commissions making the value of your corn sale equal to $6.30 – fees and commissions* ($6.50 sale – $0.40 cent trade loss + $0.20 basis – fees and commissions* = $6.30).

*Fees and commissions vary by broker

If the thought of large losses of sales scares people there are other options, such as using options. You can use option trades to limit the capital risk using specific strategies (not all will limit capital risk as some will increase the loss potential). These strategies are not suitable for all investors and each farmer should discuss the risk associated with such trading with their broker or elevator where they offer. For more information on options click here.

3. Sell for delivery in future month

Some farmers will store the grain themselves after selling it for a future delivery month. This strategy is used by farmers when the price difference is worth the cost of storage or they like the futures price but believe basis will improve. Historically, in a “normal market”, the future months will offer some premium to the current month for the crop marketing year. This is because of the risk and unknowns that are present in the market.

Example:

The March contract for corn is trading 15 cents higher than December. If the farmer can store the grain for less than 15 cents leading up to the delivery period, they would consider this sale to capitalize in the margins.

The other way farmers try to maximize selling for future delivery and storage is basis. Elevators change their basis based upon demand in the area. If farmers like the futures price, but no the basis, they may elect this method hoping basis improves.

4. Hold and sell futures against

The final strategy we will discuss is storing grain, while selling futures against it. Farmers will do this if they think the market price is strong, but the basis is poor, or they are unsure of the price direction but do not want to miss out on current levels. This is a way of locking in the futures price on the bushels while allowing time for basis improvement, but not total price risk. If prices move up from when you sell the futures, what you get paid when you decide to sell the physical grain will make up the difference in what your trade lost. On the other side if the price goes down your trade profit makes up for the difference in the cash price come time of sale.

Example:

A farmer believes basis, currently -$0.20, will improve over the next couple months but is happy with a $6.50 price. They sell $6.50 March futures while storing the grain. They were right and basis is flat come February, but the price fell to $6.40. This would result in a final price of $6.50 for the farmer minus fees and commissions ($0.10 trade profit + $0.00 basis + $6.40 cash price – fees and commissions). If they had just made the sale at the time when basis was -$0.20 they would have only received a price of $6.30.

On the other side if prices had gone up to $7.00 and basis had remained at -$0.20 the farmer would receive that $6.30 price minus fees and commissions ($7.00 price at time of sale to elevator -$0.50 loss from trade – $0.20 basis – fees and commissions = $6.30). If they were right about basis and if did improve to $0.00, then the price they would receive is $6.50 minus fees and commissions ($7.00 price from elevator – $0.50 loss from trade + $0.00 basis – fees and commissions).

This is one of the more straightforward strategies as it establishes the price of the sale limiting market factors to only effect basis.

While there are many strategies farmers employ with their stored grain, these are the most common. Each farmer faces their own unique challenges in producing a crop but the decisions about when and how to sell effects everyone. There is no cookie cutter plan as one strategy may make more sense for one farmer than another, therefore it is important to have a plan. Knowing your breakeven and having a marketing plan and sticking to it are how farmers can be successful year in and year out.

 

RCM Ag Services offers customized risk management solutions for both cash markets and forward pricing opportunities through futures and options.  Contact one of our risk managers today: https://rcmagservices.com/contact/

28 Mar 2022

The Leonard Lumber Report: The market has been quiet for over two weeks

One of the smartest guys in the industry always reminded me that once the NCAA brackets came out, the industry went quiet. That couldn’t be more true today. The market has been quiet for over two weeks. Futures were off $175 last week, and even print was down. Putting basketball to the side, this usually is a slow period as construction ramps up. Add to the many storm clouds overhead, and you get an inactive market. That said, the dynamics are still very strong. Let’s look at some pros and cons of the market today.

Pros:

  • New business keeps piling in. While the focus has been on logistics issues and supply chain constraints, business keeps flowing in and is at higher cost levels. One forward sales guy compared it to “taking a drink out of a firehose.” 
  • Supplies of new and existing homes are still near historic lows. 

Cons:

  • Mortgage rates are nearing 5% and moving higher. That will affect the buyers.
  • The mills stay at $1,400 while the industry sits at $600. That is an $800 spread! That just is not seen in any other commodity. 

All this will lead to a lower bottom, followed by another bottleneck. 

 

Let’s Get Technical:

Both the daily and weekly are sitting on support lines. At times, the chart patterns have been looking for a bottom but never turning up. May futures needs to hold the $1,000 mark or could be sitting at $920 in a hurry. Please notice the continuous call for areas to hold, and the key focus for the week is $964. That is the 50% retracement of the whole move starting back at $448.

 

Weekly Round-Up:

For the last few months and again back last spring, the market reacted to one thing and one thing only: if there was a car available or not. Today there are cars available, and they either have to get cheap enough or show a risk of going away again. That is when enough buying comes in to chase away the algo. It would not be surprising if the week was a slugfest. 

 

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf 

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Before You Go…

RCM Ag Services put a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we jumped right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

11 Feb 2022

The Leonard Lumber Report: Better Trading In Futures This Week

There was better trading in futures this week, but March opened the limit and locked. The back months had good volume, and July and Sept never hit the limit. At this point, you can exit your March shorts one way or another. That brings us to the next question: What does “life after limit” look like? If you take out the limit downs and the limit ups, we are sitting in the same area with the same dynamics. There is still good demand. Shipping out of the west is a mess, and trucking throughout North America is getting worse. And finally, we just moved closer to the Q2 buy.

The sell-off was a good indicator of a flow of wood through the system, and the rally right back indicates a continued fear that the flow will slow again. I think the industry is doing an excellent job keeping supplies flowing in. Since December, they have been buying “time” and fearing an upset chain. So today, it isn’t tomorrow’s ship time but rather next month’s ship time, and no one has that answer. 

Any more bad news from the supply side will set the market off again, while any slowing in demand will force another sell-off. Buckle up….

Let’s Get Technical:

Elliot Wave is not voodoo economics, but that was funny. The biggest takeaway is that markets trade in waves, and in percentage terms, the lumber futures waves are easing in the distance. The corrective wave ran into support and a 20% RSI at a higher level this time down, keeping the cycle positive. We are looking for the top end where the market hits real resistance. Historically, the 1st quarter has strong support and weaker resistance areas, which is seasonal and consistent.

Weekly Round-Up:

$1,200 is not a happy medium, and the risk in both directions is substantial. We have never been in a place that could potentially have a $400 push up or $400 down. Time will ease the upside pressure, and the downside will be around for a while. Position accordingly.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders:
https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About The Leonard Report
The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…
A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.

20 Dec 2021

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Three “C’s” of the Industry

Introducing the Three “C’s” of the Industry: 

The best way to recap the market is to look at its tone. To sum it up, we will introduce the 3 “C’s” or confusion, congestion, and consternation. We’ve heard repeatedly, “how could this have happened so fast?” The trade was not looking for an early start to the yearend run. It also believed that there was enough supply. That proved to be incorrect. Most of the supply issues are related to the congestion at transportation points caused by COVID and weather. Things are fluid but at a pace that allows shipping to stay fluid. That is not at a pace to fill in the needs. 

This leads us to the third “C,” or consternation. Concern and anxiety about future wood deliveries have trickled back into the marketplace. All have been caught in that nightmare this year and the nightmare that followed. Most are now working towards not being there again in 2022. So, we are ending the year with a more aggressive buy pattern than usual at a time when things are moving slow. 

The issue plaguing this industry is its overall weakness in defining value. At $600, 50% of the industry went hand to mouth. At $900, 80% of the industry is hand to mouth. There is no investment in between. The buy-side has to scale into the market as it falls, and that will take the volatility out of the market. Waiting for the bottom is not a business strategy. We think we are seeing more of that today, but after the fact. When everyone owns $1,200, it will be a long way down again. This commodity fits well between $650 and $750.

Let’s Get Technical:

There is a lot of noise between here and 1,000 in January. Trying to gauge the trend during the holidays is fruitless. We’ll say that January futures were up $20 for the week, but the RSI fell 13%. The market is technically very friendly, but trading during the quiet holidays with some big gaps below takes some enthusiasm away from the long side. The Fibonacci points below could be the range to finish out the year:

38% 929.80

50% 1079.00

61.8% 1228.20

 Weekly Round-Up:

This push higher had a lot of energy, and in this industry, the earlier the energy, the quicker the end. We think this market needs to cool some for the holidays, but we, including Rick Santelli, Kramer, the Fed, and everyone else, have never been here before. Today the consumer is accepting higher prices as the norm. There isn’t any pushback; builders are paying up, multifamily guys are paying up, homebuyers are paying up. Next year, we have no actual data to track for possible outcomes. Buying futures here could be the best trade of 2022.

 Open Interest:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

 https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

27 Jul 2021

Managing Today’s Market Risks through Short Dated Options with CME Group

It is no secret that commodity markets have been on fire over the past 12 months.   On today’s podcast we’ve brought on one of our real-life firefighters from RCM Ag – Jody Lawrence along with Tim Andriesen from the CME Group to provide us with some inside baseball knowledge of the current state of the agriculture markets and to discuss the real world application of the use of short dated options to potentially fight the current blaze of volatility surrounding agriculture markets.

As the director of Research for RCM Jody is no stranger to the podcast.  Tim, is the Managing Director of Agriculture products for the CME Group and is responsible for management of the company’s global agriculture commodities business – including grain, oilseed, livestock and dairy risk management products.

 

Find the full episode links for The Hedged Edge below: