Tag: soybean markets

28 Oct 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPT 30 – OCT 27

Corn has continued to trade range-bound between $4.10 and $4.30 with a nice recent run to the top of the range. Follow through buying to push towards $4.50 will be needed as harvest heads toward a finish and the large supply coming out of the fields. All crops got a boost after positive news from Secretary Bessent over the weekend saying China will be buying US soybeans (and assume other commodities as well). The market still has downside risk with a large US crop and global economic issues that for now are not flashing major warning signals but the market has been recession warry since the tariffs went into place in April.

Beans continued their recent rally with positive news on US and China trade relations from Secretary Bessent. We will need to see these soybean purchases from China come to fruition without any more escalations that could put this progress at risk. With the continued Government shutdown the lack of information to trade from the USDA will make private reports the main news.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to move higher after a recent dip as Gold has fallen off its recent highs but equities, lead by AI and tech, continue to climb higher with 2 months left in the year.

Other News

Cattle futures have fallen quickly off record highs as question marks around the USDA and white house about how they want to address high beef prices continue.
Cotton remains quiet with no major news to get it out of the mid 60 cent range.
The government shutdown continues.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

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Harvest, Hedging, and History: Navigating Agricultural Markets from Grain Elevators to Futures Contracts

30 Sep 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – 30

Corn had been trading in a range north of $4.20 the last couple weeks but dropped below there on the heels of the Sept 30^th USDA Report. The USDA raised US ending stocks for corn from 1.325 billion bushels to 1.532 billion which pushed December corn prices to new 1-month lows. With plenty of supply and massive crops in both the US and South America the last 2 years, balance sheets have ample supply while demand for US corn remains strong outside of demand from China. With funds holding bearish positions, it will take a combination of them changing their tone and China showing up with purchases to give prices some news to rally on unless we get in the fields and the yield just isn’t there.

Beans were lower post USDA report as well despite the report being neutral continuing their recent downtrend. The biggest hit to beans in the past couple weeks came when President Trump and President Xi had a call and no announcement of Ag purchases were made around it. Without China buying US beans there is no major upside currently, except for potentially lower yields. South America’s crop has been able to satisfy China’s needs as that trend will continue moving forward until they run out of supply.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to trade at or near all time highs as a slowing job market could lead to more rate cuts after the Fed cut by 25 basis points this month. While GDP growth had a strong bounce back quarter and the stock market is still doing well, fueled by AI stocks, the overall economy is showing some warning signs but remains strong.

Other News

Wheat continues to make new lows with a slightly bearish USDA report with larger US production.
Corn harvest is 18% complete and soybean harvest is 19% complete.
It seems more and more likely that there will be some extra government assistance to farmers this year with the depressed prices.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest begins.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

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Convenience vs. Cost: Navigating Agricultural Markets, Convenience, and Consumer Spending

15 Sep 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 12

Corn continued to move higher off last month’s lows following the September USDA Report. Most of the numbers came in along estimates but they increased planted acreage 1.4 million acres. This brings the US corn crop to 98.7 million acres, a new record. With about 90 million acres expected to be harvested, we will harvest 7 million more acres this year than in 2024, which equates to about 2 billion bushels larger crop than last year. Despite the added acreage corn bounced post report as weather issues, a dry finish, and disease pressure have caused speculation on the real size of this crop. As harvest gets rolling we will learn more about this crop.

The USDA Report did not have any surprises for beans as most numbers were close to estimates, but the report could be viewed as slightly bearish. To get beans moving higher, China needs to show up as a buyer and trade talks with China need to make progress. China and the US are reportedly close to a deal over Tik Tok which can hopefully build some momentum for progress between the two countries. The size of the soybean crop, like corn, has been hurt by lack of rains down the home stretch but with the solid start the end result is still in question as harvest rolls.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to make new highs with the Federal Reserve expected to start cuts this month. With the downward revision of 911,000 jobs from March ‘24 to March ’25 the labor market weakness gives the Fed some ammunition to lower rates with unemployment being one of their mandates.

Other News

Secretary Rollins is in the process of looking into payments to farmers for this year with the low prices.
The wheat numbers were actually a bit supportive but lower world cash prices (Black Sea mainly) continue to plague prices. Wheat will remain an anchor for any potential corn rally as more wheat will be swapped in for corn in feed. Prices are back testing the 5 ½ year Covid lows.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest begins.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

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Bulls, Bears, and Beef: Risk Management When Prices Run Hot

02 Sep 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 29

Corn has rallied off the post USDA report lows with a large up day on Friday to end the week. Pro Farmer Tour wrapped up their crop tour and has an average US corn yield of 182.7 bu/ac which would still be a record on top of the added acreage, but well below the 188.8 the USDA came out with. The two sides from the USDA’s report is that they likely won’t come out with a higher yield again with some small weather issues developing, but if they keep it high and make another big correction in January saying the crop wasn’t as big as they thought it could cost the farm community billions. The weather has cooled off for much of the country but the lack of rain for extended periods may be a problem in the home stretch.

The Pro Farmer Tour found a bean crop more along the lines of what the USDA had coming in with a 53 bu/ac estimate vs the USDA’s 53.6 bu/ac. Beans biggest problem right now has been lack of rain for pod fill but a few well timed rains down the stretch could lead to a massive crop. China really needs to show up as a buyer for beans to leg higher but they can get all they want from South America right now even though they are paying a premium to get them vs US beans. The funds have a neutral position on the market as they wait for news that could send the market any direction other outside of the $10 – $10.50 range it has been trading in the majority of the last 6 months. China still remains a cloud over the market with the Trump administration needing to get Ag purchase commitments whenever they work out a trade deal in the coming months.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to claw higher amidst pullbacks as earnings wrap up and AI and tech still drive the market direction. The Fed is expected to cut rates in September while the Trump administration’s attack on the Fed’s independence continues with Lisa Cook in its crosshairs currently.

Other News

ADM plans to close a soy protein plant in Bushnell, IL.
Brazil’s investigation into the Soy Moratorium (curbs Amazon deforestation) could threaten sustainable soy sourcing, with potential ripple effects in the global supply chain.
Wheat has been relatively flat the last couple weeks.
Cotton continues to trade sideways waiting on demand to pick up.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

12 Aug 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUG 4 – AUG 12 USDA REPORT

188.8 bu/acre… Hard to find a silver lining in the report for corn as the USDA ripped the band-aid off from the start instead of slow playing it. The average trade guess was 184-185 bu/ac which led to a big selloff seeing new contract lows. On top of the big yield number the USDA took the FSA planted acreage data and added 3 million acres in planted corn. The extra yield and acres could add nearly an extra 1 billion bushels of corn to the US and world ending stocks. The report did nothing to help the direction corn has been trading.

The bean yield was also above pre-report estimates, coming in at 53.6 bu/acre. Prices were higher though following the 3 million acre planted acreage cut and total production cut by 90 million bushels. The market was caught off guard by the 3 million acre shift as evidenced in the opposite price reaction to the report numbers. The bean rally will give farmers a chance to catch up on sales but it will also motivate more acres to be planted in South America on stronger prices.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to perform well as AI and tech companies are still the major movers. Nvidia and Microsoft are now a combined 15+% of the S&P 500 index, causing some to worry about concentration, but luckily they are performing well so right now a rising tide raises all boats (money in S&P ETFs).

Other News

Wheat was in line with re-report estimates and had no major surprises. The weakness in corn will continue to weigh on wheat however.
Cotton saw a boost post report after the USDA lowered planted and harvested acres. Production was trimmed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

04 Aug 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 18 – AUGUST 4

Corn prices have drifted lower since Mid-July with no major weather issues and no major trade deal news. The corn crop ratings remain strong with about 73% of the US crop rated good/excellent and slking and dough formation ahead of average. Exports have slowed and funds have kept their short position about even last week. With the recent heat dissipating giving way to a cooler week, this crop has not been made yet but has not faced any prolonged growth challenges which continues to fuel the estimates into the 184-185 bu/acre. While this will be an impressive crop, from talking to growers across the country there are trouble spots due to disease and timing of rains which would help us get back to the low 180s which would give the market a bump. The market has been limping lower and will likely continue until something in the news cycle changes.

Soybeans have struggled lately as there has not been any news to boost the market. Exports this week were better but until China shows up as a buyer the demand for US beans is struggling on the global market. South America had a strong crop giving China more supply to buy so China may not show up until they have to unless prices fall enough to make them step in. Crop ratings remain strong, but the next month of rain will be important for pod filling and to get the crop across the finish line.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to reach new highs before a sizeable pullback to end last week with the news of Trump firing the head of the BLS. AI and tech names continue to lead the way. Magnificent 7 stocks have had mixed reactions to earnings but nobody is sounding the alarm yet about tariffs as guidance remains steady.

Other News

Wheat has limped lower with corn and beans but saw good exports this week amid Ukraine’s sluggish exports.
The USD has strengthened in the last week but is still well below its year high. Historically this would have been supportive of agriculture exports but there are other factors in play this year.
The August WASDE report should provide some clarity and at least provide some new news for the market to digest and trade on for a bit.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

18 Jul 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 30 – JULY 18

Corn continues to struggle but saw a solid bounce this week after hitting new contract lows. U.S. weather has largely been non-threatening, with most areas benefiting from favorable summer conditions—though pockets of stress remain, particularly in the Southern Plains and Southwestern Corn Belt, where upcoming heat could pose challenges. In South America, Brazil’s main corn crop is estimated to be over 10% larger than last year’s. With strong production expected from both the U.S. and Brazil, the global supply glut remains a key headwind, continuing to weigh on prices over the past few months. The corn crop had a G/E rating of 74% to start the week.

Soybeans, like corn, had a solid week following a recent dip. Prices have held relatively steady, trading in the $10–$11 range. Favorable U.S. weather has supported early crop development, but late-July heat could pressure some of the later-planted areas. Globally, Brazil remains on pace for a record soybean crop, while Argentina is facing some production challenges and policy-related uncertainty that has slowed farmer sales. November soybean futures ended the week just above all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day), setting the stage for a key technical test as we head into next week. Beans had a G/E rating of 70%, better than expected.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to push higher, setting new records as the AI trade returns to the spotlight ahead of earnings season. Meanwhile, the Trump White House is adding volatility, with markets reacting to shifting headlines around the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While Powell’s position appears secure for now—at least through the next eight months—any change could rattle markets, as evidenced by the sharp reaction to a recent false report.

Other News

The last two USDA reports lacked surprises, good or bad, which has created a trade focused on weather.
The USD weakness continues as it holds around 98, off the recent lows of 96 and well below the recent highs around 108.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

30 Jun 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 13 – 30

Last week was rough for commodities as corn dropped to make new contract lows in Dec ’25. The charts do not look good for corn and there is no good news to help either. There are no major weather concerns and South America is producing another record crop allowing for ample ending stocks in the world. The USDA June 30^th Planted Acreage Report stated that corn has 95.203 million planted acres. This number is neutral to bearish as the market was expecting a slightly higher number but anything 95+ with the weather to this point in the year looks for a huge crop. The bears have the momentum right now but there are some trouble areas and a long summer ahead to bring the bulls some help.

Soybeans gave back the recent gains as well last week before the report on June 30^th. Beans will likely continue to trade in the range they have been until we receive news to direct the market either on the trade agreement side or weather. The Planted Acres report had 83.38 million acres, slightly below expectations. The tax bill going through congress right now may give beans some help by getting rid of a 45z tax credit loophole but until this thing passes everything is on the table to get cut from it. Weather is good for the next 2 weeks so the market needs positive news from a US and China trade deal to give it a boost.

Equity Markets

Markets set new highs after another V shape recovery following the liberation day tariff dip. Several tech stocks have led the way outside of the Magnificent 7 as AI continues to dominate headlines with spending continuing and companies talking about how it can help improve their margins.

Other News

Cotton acres came in higher than expected at 10.12 million acres. Cotton has been stuck below 70 cents/lb for a while and while the acreage number came in higher than expected we know there are issues with the crop and a lot of abandonment.
Wheat, like corn and beans, yawned at the report as the numbers were close to the average estimate with no major changes. After a mid June rally, the weakness to end the month was disappointing dropping 50 cents from the highs.
The weakness in the USD over the past few months will be something to keep an eye on as the year continues with it trading at levels we have not seen since early 2022.
Tensions in the Middle East continue despite a drawdown in aggression.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 Jun 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 29 – JUNE 13

Corn continues to struggle with any rallies as you can see in the chart below every recent high is lower than the previous. The June 12^th USDA report was lackluster with no real changes and not enough good news to give the bulls help. With the crop planted, 75% good/excellent, and non-threatening growing weather ahead, the bulls need a weather issue and/or positive trade news to change the direction of the market. The next major report is the June 30^th Stocks and Acreage Report that tends to cause some volatility.

Soybeans received great news to end the week with better-than-expected biofuel mandates from the Trump administration. You can see how the news was received after a lackluster USDA report earlier in the week in the chart below. Beans will need to breakthrough recent highs or at least stay above the moving averages they broke through to keep some positive momentum as they are where they were back in February which is at least better than corn’s price movement. Planting should wrap up soon and good growing weather will move this crop along. Beans received one piece of good news in the biofuel mandates as they await news on any deal with China to help push higher.

Equity Markets

Markets have settled down after another V shape recovery following the tariff driven dip at the beginning of April. The leveling off slightly below all-time highs shows that the market is hesitant in what to expect moving forward but acknowledges that the initial reaction to tariffs with negotiations ongoing were an overreaction. While the market could fail here and move lower with negative trade news the biggest domino the market is watching is China while also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East.

Other News

Israel and Iran’s conflict appears to be getting worse with more attacks while the US tries to position itself to lower tensions. Crude Oil prices will watch the news as a global economic slowdown vs lower production due to war would face off.
Cotton has been quiet with a lack of foreign demand with global economic uncertainty.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

29 Apr 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 14 – 29

Over the past two weeks, corn futures have experienced significant volatility, primarily from trade policy developments and supply and demand dynamics. In early April, the market faced pressure as the U.S. implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, prompting retaliatory measures, including a 15% tariff on U.S. corn by China. This escalation raised concerns about reduced export demand, leading to a sell-off in corn futures. However, the market rebounded when President Trump announced a delay in the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods, alleviating fears of diminished demand from Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. corn. The market has tight US and global supplies with the recent USDA revisions resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.6%, the lowest in 3 years. South American weather remains non-threatening and US planting continues to make progress with many areas ready to get rolling in May.

Soybeans have also faced sharp swings in the past two weeks, driven by global trade tensions, weather and repositioning. China’s retaliatory tariffs on US beans lead to a big drop in US exports, at the same time Brazil’s exports to China surged. Weather in some areas of Brazil has raised some concerns about a potential dip in yield but another record crop is still expected. Spec traders have started positioning a small long position after it has been beaten down so much they are hoping for a rally that could come with any US issues with planting or lower planted acres.

Equity Markets

Markets have seen wild volatility this month but have calmed lately as the S&P 500 tries to hold above 5,500, a point many saw as resistance. While trade negotiations on tariffs continue with the world the market needs a stream of announcements that progress is being made as the 90-day delay will get here very quickly.

Other News

Global wheat supplies face potential tightening through next year due to lower production in the Black Sea as the Russia Ukraine war continues on.
Cattle prices continue to record highs as the US headcount is the lowest level since 1951.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

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RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.