Category: Agriculture

02 Oct 2023

USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview

First Glance:

Overview:

The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 range. The bottom line is that the USDA took away part of the only potentially bullish story in beans while reminding everyone that the world grain markets are well supplied after Brazil and Russia’s record crops and their willingness to be the world’s cheapest source of corn and wheat.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2023

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday

Recap:

The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday. Futures went from a discount to par. The bounce was not unexpected. A correction was needed after the longer-than-expected down leg we just sat through. With JIT inventory management, the buyers are near fumes after about four weeks. What was surprising was that most of the future’s upside was driven by speculative or fund buying, not the industry. Those in the industry could continue to pick off deals all week. That was the catalyst for the selling on Friday. Some of the spec side didn’t see the follow-through needed in the cash market to stay long. The week was either a month-end correction or a return to normal levels. As of now, it has yet to move the needle to support things.

Monday begins a new month and a new quarter with all its history. It is all irrelevant this go around. My mantra all year was that $380 mill is too low and not sustainable for the industry. Conversely, the market has been telling us what is too high and not too low. At this point, the fourth quarter will be when the market tests the recent highs and lows and tells us what is too much. In the meantime, let’s stick to the basics. An upcycle in the cash market is created when futures reach a sufficient premium to cash. If you can buy cash and sell something, we turn.

Macro:

The facts are that neither the housing nor the stock market has yet to feel the effects of higher rates. Yes, most markets gave up a lot of value in anticipation but haven’t felt the impact. At this point, we need to get past it. The quarterback is out for the season. Let’s focus on the backup. We will see less construction, less production, and fragile inventories. Buy breaks.

Technical:

Since April 2022, the monthly RSI has hovered in the low 40s percentage-wise. Even in the flat year of 2019, the market saw better volatility. A $100 move wouldn’t even move the needle. Something to think about. The market remains generally married to the technical read. Two weeks ago, the RSI hit 20.40, the stochastics crossed, and the low rested on the lower Bollinger band. Those three indicators have been consistent all year. The RSI hit 62% on Thursday. That was up 42% in a week. The rally may be limited with the upper Bollinger band sitting at 511.60 and narrowing. When the profit availability is as low as it is today. These little indicators are essential.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

26 Sep 2023

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market is dropping subtle hints of extended weakness

Lumber Weekly

Recap:

The market is dropping subtle hints of extended weakness. A few months ago, I confidently said that $500 September futures held value. That may be different for November this time around. The marketplace has gotten in front of their remaining 2023 needs. Obvious deals out there are getting ignored. This side of the trade is never complacent. Rather they are always aggressive. In any case, they were the ones putting in the bottoms this year. Another quandary is that the 4th. quarter numbers, while expected to be down, will be just that. The fluidity of the marketplace all year has saved it. Many are turning cautious.

Friday was the perfect correction. We came in with a 20% RSI and the shorts were up $18 for the week. That is a significant gain in today’s market. Add to it the discount and the feature was shorts taking profits. Open interest does not reflect it, making me wonder if as the specs exited, the funds added. The spread may be the way to go again.

Macro:

Throughout the system, no one seems concerned about the rate issues. We heard a frustrated Fed governor telling us that there may be a couple more hikes. Now, the key to rate stabilization is to drain all the excess QE with QT. The Fed has been trying to pull $100 billion consistently. What we heard on Thursday was that the defense department received $258 billion from the Inflation Act. The Fed’s frustration comes from the added QE. 

Summary:

Friday the market corrected the RSI to 28.20% with a rate of change of 2.3 to 1. The correction would have been much more significant if November held its intraday gains. That leads me to believe there is more correction to come. I mentioned last week that the 100/200-day cross down would not accelerate selling. We will keep a close eye on it after the bigger-than-normal move-down last week.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

18 Sep 2023

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: This market has been flat, is flat, and will remain flat in the near future

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

This market has been flat, is flat, and will remain flat in the near future. Every truck and every car bought out there is a battle. The gloves are off. The struggle is how to pull out a profit from a market so flat. The only possible mover to this market is the funds. If they decide to add more, then the market goes down. Absent that selling, the market has scaled down interest to own it and scaled up selling to hedge it. Everyone claims they don’t have wood to hedge, but those last few cars have taken a hit. Least resistance remains down.

The one aspect to note is that the downcycle is getting older now. With JIT inventory management, most need to show up more often. A buy round is coming. The question is if futures will hold long enough to get it rolling. Any negative pricing in September will push the buy round out to Thanksgiving.

Thought:

Last year, our reports from the builders were of a slowdown going into the first quarter. This was not a bearish projection but more of a digestive move. As we have seen, this readjusting benefited the single-family builders. They created a pace and maintained it for most of the year. Today, we are in the thick of their year-end push but expect a similar pullback going into the end of the year. We heard about it last year. I don’t think we will this year. Orders are good, and any slowdown won’t be readily noticed. While the home builders have a good handle on the business, they are still aware of possible headwinds and will slow down to discuss. Going a step further, we are starting to see the lofty stock levels of these companies start to fall off. Wallstreet wonders if the builders’ frothy profits this year can carry forward. Most believe that even the homebuilders will need to sharpen their pencils, cutting into profits.

Summary:

The weekly 100- and 200-day moving averages last cross was up in December 2020. They are now getting close to crossing again. That would be a negative cross. While that is a very substantial indicator, it is skewed because the market moved a record $1200 since the last cross. This cross could confirm a lesser trading range and lower volatility rather than a sell signal. That is how I look at it. $30 up is a big move, as is $30.

Short run: I’ll give November till Thursday to close under 494.50. If it doesn’t, the bounce will begin.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

17 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 1 – 15

The September USDA Report this week did not give the bulls much to work with, having yield come in above estimates at 175.8 bu/ac and increasing planted acres by 800,000. The increased acreage and yield would still result in a record crop of 15.134 billion bushels despite the drought conditions that bookended this growing season. The largest sale of corn to China since April occurred this week as they made a purchase at the lowest prices in months even with a strong USD. While the markets trade the USDA report, the cash markets in areas are telling a different story with strong seasonal basis and poor crop ratings. Combines will get rolling in the coming weeks and will tell the story of this crop.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell following the report as well, with the numbers coming in close to expectations but not enough to spark high volumes of buying. The US soybean yield of 50.1 bu/ac following the brutal heat over the end of August and start of September did damage to this crop, but to what extent is hard to tell. The soybean balance sheets are tight for ending stocks and any lower yield from here would eat further into it. The soybean crush numbers were disappointing to end the week, but the stocks were low hinting at the lack of soybeans out in the market currently.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been mixed the past couple weeks with various economic data coming in including CPI of 3.7%, slightly hotter than expected, for the month of August. The markets will continue to process data now that earnings are mostly done with, and the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again. The soft landing is still in play, but any economic surprises could derail that.

Via CNBC

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

11 Sep 2023

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: WAS THERE A KEY TAKEAWAY LAST WEEK?

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

Was there a key takeaway last week? No. It was a holiday-shortened week that saw liquidation and rolling. The focus was on moving positions and not price discovery. There was a slight erosion in the cash market as the week ended. I’m unsure if it was a lack of interest or a rebalance. I do know that expecting a sharp sell-off in cash hasn’t been a good strategy. It’s always a grind. Today, there is a forward sales value under $480 in November and a basis value over $530. Those tight parameters could keep futures flat.

Thought:

If there is one word that sums up this market in 2023, it would be “resilient.” If you made a mistake this year, you were not punished. Entering the market too early or too late didn’t end up in the catastrophic spiral it did in the last few years. The market has stayed within its value parameters for the whole year so far. Let’s face it: This market deserved to go much lower. After a run on mortgage rates from 3% to over 7%, it should have broken the market, but it held up. Any sell-off from here will be more mental-driven than physical. We were looking for September to start indicating less supply and less demand all year. If that is the case, expect more of the same trading and opportunities.

Summary:

The 200-day moving average of 548.40 and the 100 day at 535.40 are beacons of light for this market. They are also beacons of hope. Seldom do lumber futures have such prominent technical highlights and do not reach then exceed them. It will again, just not yet. A very strong downward channel comes in at 516.60 in November. This market could ride that trendline lower for the next few weeks. The industry yearend has frozen trade. The typical lows in October may be the case again.

 

Note: it looks like the funds are getting shorter.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

05 Sep 2023

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures and cash took different paths last week, but neither blazed a trail

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

Futures and cash took different paths last week, but neither blazed a trail. The cautionary flags are out en masse throughout the industry. The time it takes to replenish the system can be measured in days, not weeks. The reason for the quick turnaround lies in the marketing of wood today. There are a lot of sellers out there with one goal: to sell. Items never seem to get tight despite some very good business. Cash last week found the last of the participants while futures saw the “deals” again. The key takeaway for the week was that the market remains in a sideways trade. The minor blips up and breaks down have nothing to do with the overall trend.

Thought:

The fiscal year-end for many in this industry comes in around the October time frame. By then, the focus becomes the 2024 building season. The industry has already moved on to next year. There are many of the same issues to contend with. Let’s take a look. The US economy, and for that matter, any country on earth, has never experienced such an influx of capital into the system. There are no models or equations to guide us. Every business today has to react instead of plan. That creates opportunities. It also causes many firms to be far more cautious.

Right now, the homebuilders have the goose and its golden egg. Rates and existing home sales remain sticky. One high and one low. There is no way they will over-accelerate construction. They will continue to feed the system but at a pace of plus 5 to 10%.

The multifamily sector is starting to have an inverse effect from the high rates. The ROI is just not there for many.

Today, lower lumber prices would not accelerate building, nor would rising prices slow it. It is all about sales momentum, which remains steady. Many are beginning to wonder if an economic slowdown, i.e., higher rates and higher unemployment, won’t slow construction. Most need to realize that between the Chips Act and the Inflation Act, there will be 2 trillion dollars entering into the system on top of what is already there. That spigot will not slow. 2024 could end up being very lucrative.

Summary:

The futures market has done a good job of trading in between the goalposts. The time after the roll tends to see the funds adding. That will lead to new lows and widening goalposts in today’s environment. No momentum indicators call for a steep decline. The lows will be fund-driven and a grinder. One trade to watch is if the industry gets short here. There are no spec shorts in the market. The industry shorts have been here for months. Will others jump in? Next week should be a carbon copy of last week. Let’s hope we don’t test the circuit breaker system…..

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

05 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 21 – SEPTEMBER 1

Corn has been range bound lately looking for anything to give it direction. The heat and dryness currently happening across most of the US is bullish, but the rains and cool weather before may have given this crop enough to weather the heat. There has been some rain added to the forecast but far enough out to not get too excited about yet. Exports remain steady and within expectations with no major changes expected. Corn has been held down with wheat while Russia sells their wheat for cheap on the world market to pay for the war in Ukraine. Last week’s Pro Farmer tour came back with a 172 bu/ac yield for the US, below the latest USDA report by over 3 bu/ac. While many estimates think the latest USDA is still probably too high, a 172 yield is closer to other estimates even with the current heat. The long weekend always allows for news to change and create a volatile trade to start next week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell this week following helpful rains before the heat. The Pro Farmer tour estimated the US crop to be 49.7 bu/ac, below the USDA projection of 50.9 bu/ac. The soybean balance sheets are tighter than corn and will only get worse the more this crop shrinks down the stretch. New crop sales are well behind USDA projections of an 8% decrease for the 23/24 marketing year, currently running 37% behind last year’s pace. With a shrinking crop it is hard to expect export sales to significantly ramp up but if drought conditions continue with heat and river levels stay low we could see logistic problems again this year. The next few weeks will be important to finish this crop but with harvest approaching most of the damage has likely been done.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied over the last two weeks with some important stocks posting strong quarters such as Nvidia. After a tough August the markets will look to bounce back in September with economic data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

28 Aug 2023

Leonard Lumber Report: The week was mixed as the futures market gave back half of its rally while cash continued higher

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

The week was mixed as the futures market gave back half of its rally while cash continued higher. The futures market is in the middle of a rebalancing for the month’s end, so their dynamics are different. What is troublesome in this environment is that while the spread works, the second month gets clobbered. The risk management selling is in the next month. Also, the futures correctly projected a slowing cash market. Today, a slowing cash market doesn’t indicate lower prices. The futures will be the one making the new lows if all remains the same.

Factors:

The current trade is all about economic outlooks. No one is complaining about sales. The problem lies in the fact that there is no follow-through. The industry will not add to inventories and that is based on their projects. That won’t change anytime soon. The buy side will only step in when forced. The sell side is always $20 too high. There are bands established, but that isn’t anyone’s focus at this time.

Thought:

As we finish the third quarter many are starting to realize that covid aberration is behind us and we are back to a grind market fighting for dollars. The difference, I believe, is the ability for the market to go up. Just last 8 months ago the futures were trading at $627 mill. A complacent marketplace will cause strong rallies. My fear today is that we have to make a new low to make a new high…

Technical:

Where did the bull market go? Now that we are back in the $35/$70 mode again the 100-day moving average is the focal point. It traded back and forth on it only to fall apart by Friday. Thursday, the stochastics started to turn, as did the longs wishful thinking. The psychology of the market is not to get caught long and last week’s trade highlights that concept. Exiting and rolling could weigh on November next week.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

25 Aug 2023

The Role of Commercials and End Users in the Agriculture Industry: Understanding Price/Volatility Risk and Proactive Risk Management

Introduction

The penultimate step of the process for grain is reaching a commercial elevator before going to an end-user to be converted to a final product. These elevators range in size from your local country elevator with little storage capacity to large elevators with millions of bushels capacity. While some producers deliver straight to the end user in areas where that is an option, commercial elevators handle millions and millions of bushels a year of almost every commodity grown in the US. Once the elevators receive the grain, they ship it to the end-user by rail, barge, or other means.

Commercials and How They Fit In

While commercial elevators come towards the end of the process, they have made selling grain as a farmer easier with convenient locations and increased capacity. Railroads played the largest role in the growth and expansion of the United States in the West, which directly led to the growth in farming in the late 1800s. While all elevators are not along railroads or major waterways, you will find the larger ones here as these locations allow for more volume.

On-farm and off-farm storage (elevators) for grains have grown over the years as the US produces more and more while the world consumes it. For the last 20 years, storage capacities have grown close to even with the increase in production and will continue to grow as the world population grows and more supply is needed.

Another example of a commercial facility would be a crush facility. The growth of soybean crush capacity has expanded in the last several years and looks to continue as the demand for soybean oil used in renewable diesel continues to grow. The growth in renewable diesel over the last few years and years to come have made crush facilities a major commercial player now and will only get bigger in the future. Crush facilities close to the growers allow easier access to the beans and competitive prices increase demand.

While it will take time, we will see a shift from soybean meal to soybean oil as the main product coming from these crush facilities. Clean Fuels Alliance America projected renewable diesel production could hit 5.5 billion gallons but 2026 if expansions and new facilities continue. This increase would raise demand for more soy oil, changing the commercial structure that the US has seen in the last 20 years.

End Users and Their Role

End users consume the commodity in all sorts of ways. From feed yards to crush facilities (who then sell the oil and meal) to food production companies, end users cover a wide range of groups. These users face risk on several sides, with the cost of inputs going up and the value of their finished product going down due to other factors. End users face basic economic factors such as recessions and inflation that will affect their revenue, making them adjust their plans of inputs.

While the easy way to think about end users is who makes your cereal, it is crucial to remember how large the commodity space is and that it touches almost every industry. Homebuilders are end users and have seen an increase in their inputs, with lumber moving higher in 2021 before moving lower. If these types of companies cannot effectively manage their risk, it can cost consumers hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars each year.

Proactive and Disciplined Risk Management

Along with the enormous capacity, commercials, and end users also carry a tremendous amount of price/volatility risk requiring a proactive and disciplined risk management approach to maximize the margins of their operation and keep the system moving forward.

Today’s volatile markets have brought unprecedented levels of risk and reward, highlighting the significance of adapting to this environment. With its interdependent supply chain, the agriculture sector is particularly susceptible to the ripple effects of market fluctuations. This is especially true in the current inflation landscape, soaring prices, energy scarcity, and labor shortages.

How RCM Ag Services works with Commercials

RCM Ag Services utilizes our independent standing, national producer reach, and tech partnerships to bring our commercial agriculture customers best-in-class tools and resources to improve efficiency, increase revenues, and generate more customer volume. With our suite of tools and products, your operation can share in markup on products, improve risk management, achieve better FCM clearing rates, and produce more bushels.

Our market commentary allows commercial elevators to keep up with what is going on all over the country and other parts of the world in an easy-to-read and follow format. This allows you to focus on your operation and make it run to its best ability.

For more information on how RCM Ag Services can support your team, follow the link below. https://rcmagservices.com/commercial-agriculture/