Market Commentary Archives - Page 15 of 24

31 Jan 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: Looking for Tempered and Defined Market

We entered 2022 looking for a more tempered and defined market but instead have seen some of the most violent swings in lumber history. The market ran up $230 in 8 sessions and then fell $375 in 8 sessions. That is in an industry that thinks making $10 on a car is good. This $11 tick market has always been clearly defined, with extremes in the $20 range. What has changed? The economics of the industry. The producing side has left its historic role as customer service orientated and now turned into profit-only speculators. The buy-side contraction has turned into a massive party of 4 with models built for much smaller structures. That is our all-in-all-out industry today. Once you mentally prepare for the swings, you will start to recognize the many opportunities that become available.

The market finished limit up on Friday after a straight down week. On Thursday, we started seeing the forward sale community showing up, which was even more aggressive on Friday. The key takeaway from the new buy interest is that prices have fallen enough to show value. That also means that the cycle isn’t over but just hit a pause. Between the constant demand, the 30-day inventory rule, and a $375 drop, one would have expected a bottom at some point. Was an 8 session down cycle enough? That is too hard to gauge, but this massive volatility could signal a market trying to find a balance. That doesn’t indicate the top is in, but if you’re long at $1,300, you could be sitting around for some time waiting to scratch it.

Let’s Get Technical:
With all the gaps above the market, any positive trade on Monday should be used to buy futures. Those stops are prominent and noticeable. With a 32% RSI, the spec trade is up. The technical focus is still on the 1059 fib area, which could be where the market finds some trade. A return to the 963 area would indicate a long cold summer ahead.

Weekly Round-Up:
At $1,000, we can comfortably say that those buying it are either doing a forward price for a customer, need it today, or enjoys speculating. I keep saying that over $1,000 is unsustainable, and these levels aren’t a norm and will continue to fail. That said, there might be a day that it will indicate a value. As for Monday morning, it is cheap.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About The Leonard Report
The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…
A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between. And as a bonus, we find out what sport he would be interested in playing if he went professional.

28 Jan 2022

Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 20 – 27

Corn continued its rally this week as grain bulls and inflation continue to drive it higher. The yield losses in South America continue to have news around it as the reality of significant losses begins to set in. Too much rain and heat or not enough rain and heat have been driving the issues, with very few areas having excellent growing conditions. With the Chinese New Year coming up, China will disappear from the export reports for a little bit, but once they come back, the market will have a better idea of where Brazil and Argentina sit. If the rumored losses come to fruition, we could see China increase its purchases. Corn has continued its rise while wheat struggles to make up its mind with confusion around the Russia and Ukraine situation. Any escalation there will result in more bullish factors in the market. Despite some volatility, energy prices continued their rise, with crude oil hitting a new high this week. Ethanol plants will continue to produce even with higher corn prices as long as their margins remain strong despite resulting in less fuel consumption. Many energy companies think we could see $100+ Crude in the next few months.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continued to move this week on similar news as corn with South America’s issues and continued world veg oil strength. With strong veg oil prices pulling beans along with it as long as that lasts, we can expect some support under beans with any lower moves. Like corn, if private estimates of losses to the South American crop become a reality, we should continue this run higher. If China comes back from Chinese New Year and starts picking up bean purchases, mixed with world veg oil prices could see this rally continue. Acreage estimates for 2022 have been coming out, with Informa pegging the US bean crop at 87.8 million acres. This is slightly higher than the 87.2 million acres from 2021, but we have a long way to go before we get to that point.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

Equities had quite the week with large intraday trading ranges as the market does not seem to make up its mind. This week, the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates as-is means we should expect a raise from the March meeting. The Fed also said they would adjust asset purchases moving forward. The tensions between Ukraine, Russia, and NATO remain a large question mark, but it appears Putin may not do anything until after the Olympics. This will be important to keep an eye on for equities and commodity prices.

Via Barchart

Cotton

The cotton market has held in this $1.20 range for the last ten trading days. World demand is there, and this bull market could have room to run if inflation sticks around with other supply chain bottlenecks. We could continue to see this strength last into the spring when planting starts until we get a better idea of what the U.S. cotton crop will look like this year. With rising consumer demand, the cost of production and transportation in the next few months could see volatility.

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

Via Barchart.com

25 Jan 2022

Agriculture, Market Commentary, Podcast rcmagserv 0 comment

The Future of “Feeding the World” with Ag Technology featuring Dr. Channa Prakash

A special guest joins us for this episode of The Hedged Edge, who is well known for his many titles, which include Doctor, Editor-in-Chief, Dean, and Chief Academic Officer, just to name a few. Dr. Channa S. Prakash, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) at Tuskegee University, has served as faculty since 1989 and is a professor of crop genetics, biotechnology, and genomics. He is also well recognized for mentoring underrepresented minority students.

Highlights from this week’s episode include:

The science that has provided our farmers with better varieties of crop lines by using some of the most sophisticated technology on Earth
Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population
How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming out of China
Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture and more!

Quick links from the episode:

Follow Dr. Prakash on Twitter @AgBioWorld here

Listen or watch:

Apple

Spotify

24 Jan 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Correction Has Begun

The Correction Has Begun

Typically, a corrective move is easy to project, but there will always be tension in making that call after last year. There is always the fear of an implosion. Last week, we saw the slowness in the cash market carrying over to the futures market. Numerous factors are weighing on the market today, as mentioned before:

The high concentration of bulls out there.
The makeup of the home buyers is getting too speculative.
The fact that mortgages are up a half-point already and going higher.

All this must be managed when ship times are weeks out and late. Most of the trade took a step back last, allowing the algo to press the futures market.

I hate to repeat it, but we are “all in or all out” regardless of any inventory management model. Today it is all out. The change will come with a futures market showing value or the buying cycle starting up again. There is a lot of pressure today in the futures, but none in cash. With another buy coming, the mills will probably trade around this area for a while. That will illuminate the futures discount at some point. Until then, the algo is in charge.

Let’s Get Technical:

The key focus area is 1,059.95. The 38% retracement of this last move started on November 1. In March, the technical picture took a negative turn this week, breaking out of a channel that began November 1. The bottom of the channel came in at 1,226 last week. The channel is 1,421 to 1,226. The market should rebound to that area on the following buy round, but the significance is that the $1,500 measurements could be out of the game now. A failure of a long-term channel in lumber has indicated a topping market. The technical read is NOT calling a top but has been a good indicator of upside limits.

There is a good pocket of noise in the $1,125 area. Between the discount and that support area, we will see if it slows the algo.

Weekly Round-Up:

The put premiums have exploded; this is where you start to lift 20% of your hedges. That quick increase in premiums also indicates a market that could be blowing off to the downside. The initial read is a market correcting, and with the algo trading, it could end lower than it should be. It also shows that overall volatility is working itself back towards a lumber norm. We’ve been defining a “marketplace” or what we previously called a trading range once the market finds an actual value. Anything over $1,000 is unsustainable but real with the lack of supply. Transportation will continue as a driver for a few months. A off the radar support mechanism is the spread. There is a growing crowd into the March-May spread on the short side. Without a fund roll, that could lead to a buy round in futures.

It is a long way back from a $1338 high. Let’s see how the market acts by midweek.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

23 LUMBER & WOOD PULP OPTIONS 23 Side 01 2022 DAILY INFORMATION BULLETIN – CME Group, Inc.

LUMBER & WOOD PULP OPTIONS 2022 DAILY INFORMATION BULLETIN – http://www.cmegroup.com/dailybulletin

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report – Other (Combined)

This is the viewable version of the most recent release of the Other disaggregated long form futures only commitments report.

www.cftc.gov

About The Leonard Report

The Leonard Lumber Report is a new column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Before You Go…

What’s Driving the Grain Markets Heading into 2022? The 2021 U.S. grain crop has the potential to be one of the largest on record. Where did all the yield come from, what areas were the hardest hit, and why on God’s green earth are grain prices still so high? Watch here or click the video icon below:

21 Jan 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 20

Corn rallied this week with beans with news of trouble in South America continuing and rumors of purchases from China. As we have mentioned before, China buying all ag products is welcome news as they are well behind the Phase 1 targets. The Russia and Ukraine tension, should it boil over, will have major implications for the commodities market as Ukraine’s exports will all but cease. The news of Brazil stopping bean sales is worrisome as there could be more bean and corn yield lost than thought. Energy prices continue their run higher as ethanol demand does not seem to be slowing down. With corn still below recent highs, unlike soybeans, it would appear there is still room for upward movement, but the trade into the weekend, where anything can happen as we know, will be important.

Via Barchart Soybeans rallied this week as soy oil and meal also rallied. The noise around the problems with South America’s crop got a little louder this week with StoneX reporting that Brazil soybeans have gone to “no offer” due to farmers refusing to sell new-crop supplies in the current environment, with drought losses in the south worse than first believed. South American weather remains mixed as southern Brazil and northern Argentina remain hot and dry while southern Argentina received rain over the last couple of weeks. In early February, all areas are expected to revert back to hot and dry in the forecast. These troubles make it sound like the USDA was off on their South America estimates in last week’s report. This is a situation to monitor as any stoppage of sales from Brazil and Argentina would mean purchases from the U.S.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

Equities have had a bad week as tech has led the way lower. These rounds of selloffs will offer opportunities to buy back in at some point but as always, timing the market is not an easy job. The market was so hot last year pullbacks are expected, but it is hard to stomach when it falls this much this fast. We are still above the levels we were right after Thanksgiving, but the volatility of the last couple of months looks to still be hanging around.

Via Barchart

Podcast

The 2021 U.S. grain crop has the potential to be one of the largest on record. Where did all the yield come from, what areas were the hardest hit, and why on God’s green earth are grain prices still so high?

Today, we are joined by several RCM Ag Services grain markets experts from around the country to catch up on a post-harvest update and share an outlook for production and marketing in each of their respective regions for the remainder of the 2021 marketing season and the upcoming 22 crops.

Via Barchart.com

18 Jan 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: 2022 Rundown So Far

Welcome to the 2022 lumber market. A place no one wants to be, but all keep showing up. Here’s a brief rundown:

The futures market was up over $100 again — The run has been relentless and unforgiving, and it’s hard to find the endpoint. Recently, 4 out of 5 of those in the lumber industry think the market is going higher. Half of those are not long. So why so bullish? The two key factors are transportation and demand. We will look at each side to see if that endpoint can be projected.

Many are looking for the typical first-quarter shipping issues where supplies are bought but can’t ship. That causes an artificial secondary market where the trader is forced to buy anything he can get his hands on from anyone. Here we see a jump in truck orders to “fill in.” This time, trucking availability has been restricted, creating general chaos throughout North America. The fill-in mechanism has broken down, forcing the trader to buy a car for further out shipment regardless of price. This has extended order files at the mills when they typically shrink. It also has pushed prices to the next level.

The bigger surprise coming into 2022 was the amount of demand that continues to create itself. Usually, we could foresee a push coming from the numerous jobs that get bid and rebid. Today most are surprised at the amount of new business that shows up daily. A lot of it is long-term and not close to starting, but it has changed the psyche of the trade and added another level to the already pressured trader. That same trader who can’t buy enough was only yesterday told not to buy a stick. That chase is also pushing prices to the next level.

Let’s Get Technical:

So, what is the next level? On the technical side, the key areas now are the gap left last year at $1,514.80 and an old Fib number of $1,518.30. There is room to get there with a weekly RSI at 75%. Each month is at a new high, and there aren’t any calcs from here up. We know that recently, a market spike has had a corrective pullback. I’m not that confident in a pullback with 3 out of 5 willing to “buy the pullback,” but that has been the trend.

Weekly Round-Up:

The market is back at unsustainable levels. And why do I say that? Because we can only build so many houses, and we do not have the labor to push actual starts to 1.7 or 1.8. At $1,200, there is enough wood flowing to keep a 1.6 pace at least. The market goes to $1,500 or more because there is a significant gap in the chain. Logistic problems have bottled up the flow of needed lumber, and those logistic issues are not going away anytime soon.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

14 Jan 2022

Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 6 – 13

The USDA report was met with a mixed reaction on Wednesday as markets traded both higher and lower immediately following the report. Thursday brought on large selling though, as rain in the dryer parts of South America took the headlines after the USDA Report ultimately did not provide any major changes. The USDA did not change the U.S. yield for corn as it stayed at 177 BPA while raising total crop size to 15.115 billion bushels and 1.540 billion bushels for ending stocks. World stocks were lowered along with smaller yield numbers expected in South America. The rain will do little to alleviate the stress on the crop as more will be needed before we feel better about less yield loss. Several private estimates believe the Brazil and Argentinian losses are larger than the USDA updated. However, there is still plenty of time before the crop comes out of the ground to rebound.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell on the week for the same reasons as corn. The USDA Report was slightly more bearish for beans as they raised the U.S. yield 0.2 BPA to 51.4. They slightly increased total production and raised U.S. ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 350 million. A good amount was cut from World-ending stocks due to the issues in South America, but the market had already priced that in, if not more so than was reported. Exports were within expectations, so no surprises there. One wild card still out there is that China is $16 billion behind their Phase 1 trade agreement commitments. Obviously, not all of this is soybeans, but they are far off their soybean numbers. It is unlikely the Biden administration will press them to get to their commitments, but if South America’s troubles are worse than expected, they have to go buy them from somewhere.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow fell slightly on the week but bounced back off its lows from Monday. The markets are looking for direction following 4 days of loses straight. With repositioning for the year ahead and profit taking after a historic year the volatility could be around for a while.

Wheat

Wheat has taken it on the chin the last couple of weeks as you can see in the chart below. Wheat sold off following the other markets after the report. The drought in the winter wheat belt is concerning and if it does not improve, we should see prices move higher in the next month or two. The drought is not a big problem right now, but if it continues into February, it would be concerning. This week saw the lowest close in KC Wheat since October.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

12 Jan 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: January 10

It’s hard to believe that this market has reentered the hyperbole dynamic we saw last year when the market lacked any restraint in upward pricing. The market bottomed on November 2nd at $606 and has gone straight up since. On Friday, the March contract made a new high of $1,250. That is a run of over 100% during the holidays. So, what are the issues causing these spikes? First is the massive contraction of this industry, creating a buy pattern that is out of balance. There are fewer players in the pipeline, making it consistently tight. The other is the new two-week to 30-day pricing that keeps everyone in the market almost daily. A quick summary of today’s dynamic is that when demand is good, there is a constant need to buy, and when demand slows, there is no need to buy under the current model. We started with the latter this time.

The need to buy throughout the 3rd quarter dropped nearly 60%. The new model of only buying when needed and only buying an item that will ship caught the market short. The previous models always had a buying program in place as prices fell, and these guys don’t. If the market slowly turns, there should be enough inventory at the mill side to keep costs balanced. As we saw in November, the slowing of production and shipment issues caused a bottleneck overnight. The market now needs to settle to ease the pressure on prices.

Today, the issue in front of the industry is that they bought great at $700 then added to the pile at $1,000 but are still averaged well. The next time they step up to the trough price will be $1,200, which is off their charts for breakeven.

Let’s Get Technical:

This type of market doesn’t relate well to momentum indicators. That said, March made a new contract high at $1,250 with an RSI of 76.70%. There is a lot of room to the upside. The math keeps bringing the value (volume) areas into focus. The two areas are $1,250 and $1,550. A good indicator on the last run was the Fib extensions. Today the 1.38% move in March is $1497. The technicals are building for a push to that level, and there isn’t much pushback from the trade. It will take a lot of energy to get there, so a pullback in some fashion would be efficient at this point of the cycle.

Weekly Round-Up:

You heard it here first… Because of global economics, if this market goes up to the $1,500 level, it will take out the historic highs, and the momentum build-up will be too great to cool. So, there should be minor issues out there of prices going higher. If you asked us if we would buy it today, we’d say, “I wouldn’t buy it with all of Doug’s money.” You can’t discount the ease of producing this commodity. There is no fundamental cause for this commodity to be over $1,000, and we just have an incredibly inefficient marketplace today.

Open Interest and Commitment of Traders

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

07 Jan 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 6

Happy New Year! Volatility has been the main storyline in the first week of 2022. There was enough surprise rainfall in the dry areas of South America to spook the markets right before the New Year before a slight bounce. This week’s ethanol production numbers were slightly below last week. Compared to the previous year, monthly ethanol production is running 9% over last year, but ethanol stocks are 8.3% below last year. Ethanol margins are still profitable as gas has rallied since Thanksgiving. The dryness and heat in Southern Brazil and Argentina remain in the forecast while northern Brazil continues to get too much rain. For reference, this time of the year in Argentina is the equivalent to June. If the forecasts prove true in the next couple of weeks, they will continue to stress the crop. Exports this week were nothing to write home about as the USDA described them as the “Marketing year low.” If South America’s crops continue to struggle, we could see an increase in exports, but the opposite could be true if the weather improves.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have experienced the same volatility as corn but remain at its highs, as seen in the chart below. The story is the same as corn being driven by weather problems in South America. Barchart estimated Brazilian soybean production at 137 million tonnes, with Argentina production at 45 million tonnes. The last USDA projection had 144 million tonnes in Brazil and 49.5 million tonnes in Argentina, showing that the private sector believes the crop has gotten worse and is trending in the wrong direction. The chart below is interesting because you can see the top at $14 this week and back in July. That will be an important number to close above to keep the momentum going.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow has had quite a volatile week following a week of the Santa Claus rally. The Fed may increase the rate at which they raise rates which worries some investors, but at this point with the Fed, many investors are waiting until they see the plan. As a new year starts, especially following the impressive year that was 2021, many investors try to predict the story for the year ahead. If we have learned to expect anything while Covid is in the markets, we can’t predict much for the year ahead.

Via Barchart

January USDA Report

The January USDA Report is Tuesday and should be a market mover. All eyes will be on the report as everyone positions themselves ahead. If the volatility of late shows up, it could be a big market mover.

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

05 Jan 2022

Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates rcmagserv 0 comment

The Leonard Lumber Report: 2022 Outlook

What a year. The housing industry plowed through 2021 with record disruptions and record sales. Once a pipeline issue was resolved, another would pop up. We are coming into 2022 with a tight supply and high demand for this commodity. Big dollars continue to flow into the economy, and now a house has reappeared as a valuable asset. There is also roaring inflation which is a double-edged sword for this commodity.

The fact is the housing market is exceptional, and lumber prices are trending higher. The positives are firmly in place, while the negatives will need a dramatic economic shift to come into play. The black swan could be rates or inflation or a greater covid blitz. In any case, it would have to be dramatic. Let us dive into the key factors controlling this industry. Our gut instinct is to rehash the past, and we’ll attempt not to bring up the obvious.

2021 — Year in Review

We came into 2021 at a futures price of $870. While we saw $1,000 the year before, this was much too high for the industry. The refusal to buy put an industry, seeing increasing volume in construction, critically underbought. From there, a panic ensued, and the market went parabolic.

The biggest takeaway from 2021 is that the trade was willing to pay unheard-of prices for wood and passed along the cost. No price level slows buying, and there is no longer too high. What higher prices do is generate a greater supply at a quicker pace. When there is a disruption in the chain, prices go straight up. Today we are either in the middle of that cycle or near the end.

Many would build a plan around the “bookends” of that year’s trade in the past. This is a critical drill for the industry in 2022. The need is to create a value area. We need to look at some of the economics out there to look at the value of this commodity.

Housing starts average in 2021 was 1.586 million. The consensus is projecting a 1.6 number in 2022. That number could be far greater if there were the ability to build. As we said back in 2018, there is only so much capacity to go around. This year, many builders have chosen to scale back building plans so as not to get overextended. Others are adding numbers with lofty goals. Profitability drives their planning, and with the lack of availability still present, profits will stay high.

Where should value sit at 1.6 million starts?

The cost of production is skyrocketing in this industry as in all the rest. The last report showed wages up 9.2%. Yes, that is correct. That means the person who changes the oil in the logger’s truck to the people who do the final cleaning on the home before closing makes about 10% more. And that is if you can find a person to hire.

In the United States, the average monthly job offerings number is around 6 million — The December 1st number was 11 million. The stat that shows the mood of labor is the “quit” rate. This is usually a sub 1% number, and it was a whopping 3% in November. 3% of workings are quitting. These numbers are unsustainable, but many of these costs will not come off.

The best indicator today of the economic issue is the current inflation rate, and in November, it recorded 6.8% with an upward trajectory.

All this is a result of flooding the system with cash. That is flooding a system that was already building strength, and that was not the case in 2009 when the economy was headed lower. We must remember that many funds are circulating in a small economic space today. At this point, it will have to inflate itself out of the problem, which will end the housing run.

We talked earlier this year about how the housing market reacts to a cash-infused accelerating economy. With a better economy, expectations were for the first-time homebuyers to jump into the market after the “lost decade.” We have seen that increase, but more than expected went to the multi-sector. Under these dynamics, an increase in rates will not cause a slowdown in home buying. The norm has been about 38% of first-timers buying new homes, which is now closer to 20%. The troubling statistic is that the 38% group are investors. We do not need to review what happened the last time it was that high.

Projection:

Usually, most outlooks are a counter-trend analysis. Today we see only roses. This industry is highly complicated because of the various amounts of input at all levels. One factor could be bullish at one point and bearish at another. Today, we have numerous positive inputs that will lead to higher prices. At the same time, those factors have a shelf life. The tightness factors are slowing. Last year once those factors were finished, others crept into the equation. The next correction will indicate if that repeats or not. In the meantime, expect the 2021 swings again. It will also look remarkably familiar to the old-time seasonals that would make a top in the first quarter, do the sell in May and go away for the summer, followed by the fall buy starting the cycle all over again.

2022 will show owning lumber products will be a sound investment. Also, owning some type of downside risk management will soften the blow of the wide swings, especially when it is down. It is no longer a “time the buy” market; it is an opportunistic buy market.

About The Leonard Report

Before You Go…

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Category: Market Commentary

The Leonard Lumber Report: Looking for Tempered and Defined Market

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 20 – 27

The Future of “Feeding the World” with Ag Technology featuring Dr. Channa Prakash

The Leonard Lumber Report: The Correction Has Begun

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 20

The Leonard Lumber Report: 2022 Rundown So Far

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 6 – 13

The Leonard Lumber Report: January 10

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 6

The Leonard Lumber Report: 2022 Outlook

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