RCM Ag Services

Category: Soybeans

31 Mar 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31

The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now.

Via Barchart

Soybeans came in at 83.495 million acres as their lack of profitability at current prices is making farmers switch some acres to corn. As you can see from the chart below there have not been much help for beans but if this acreage number is close to what we see, it is hard to think they would dip much below $10. The post report action was disappointing as beans continued lower.

Via Barchart

Wheat had bullish news from the report as acreage came in 1.125 million below estimates. Wheat has some bullish world news for price with emergence concerns in the Black Sea and US Plains, despite recent price action. News out of the Black Sea and any issues with the US crop will be market movers for now.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their volatile swings while President Trump’s “day of liberation” approaches on April 2 when tariffs are supposed to be going in place. Volatility will be the name of the game as many unknowns remain in the trade wars.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in at 9.867 million. This is 1.315 million acres less than last year. Cotton needs to see demand pick up to get back and stay over 70 cents/lb.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches the drought monitor begins to become important again as subsoil moisture always seems to be a problem somewhere.

PRICES

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

13 Mar 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT

First Glance:

Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat.

Corn             24/25 US Corn Stocks:  1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate)

                       24/25 World Corn Stocks:  288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate)

                       24/25 Brazil Corn Prod: 126 MMT (126.07 Estimate)

                       24/25 Argentina Corn Prod: 50 MMT (49 Estimate)

 

  • Corn had a boring report with balance sheets remaining unchanged across the board. Global corn stocks were slightly lower and China imports were 2 mmt lower. Corn needs to get through technical resistance at the 50 day moving average ($4.59 ½) to see a move higher, it is currently trading at $4.55.

 

Beans        24/25 US Bean Stocks:  380 MBU (379 MBU Estimate)

                    24/25 World Bean Stocks:  121.41 MMT (124.56 MMT Estimate)

                    24/25 Brazil Bean Prod: 169 MMT (169.18 Estimate)

                    24/25 Argentina Bean Prod: 49 MMT (48.88 Estimate)

 

  • Beans did not receive much news as US bean stocks remained the same while lowering world ending stocks 2.93 mmt. The one item of note is that the USDA lowering the seed usage 3 mbu, potentially hinting at a lower bean acre number.

 

Wheat        24/25 US Wheat Stocks:  819 MBU (797 MBU Estimate)

                     24/25 World Wheat Stocks:  260.08 MMT (257.62 MMT Estimate)

 

  • Wheat was slightly changed this month with larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced exports and an increase in ending stocks. Exports were lowered for the EU, Russia and the United States. While not by large amounts (0.9 million tonnes) it was enough to move the market slightly lower with no big news in corn or beans.

Overview:

A quiet report as the market looks elsewhere for news to dictate trade. As China gets involved in the tariff war with Canada and Trump steps up tariffs on some imports while delaying others, there remains more questions than answers. News from the White House will be the main market mover moving forward until the planting intentions report at the end of the month. While South American weather is not a problem currently that is always a variable to keep an eye on as their second crop begins to take shape.

Note from the report: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.” This is important because US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed until April 2 on all products covered by the USMCA meaning theses numbers are estimates if this is resolved before then.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have given up all gains since the election in November as trade wars and tariffs dominate the headlines with the chip stocks and market leader Nvidia getting hit hard as recession fears ramp up. The global markets, after lagging the US markets for several years coming out of Covid, have ramped up recently, having a better start to 2025.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The tariff war is up and running as everybody tries to out tariff each other. How long this lasts will ultimately decide how much economic damage is done.
  • Canada has a new Prime Minister after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney from the liberal party took the position.

17 Feb 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 27 – FEBRUARY 14

Corn rode the wave higher following the updated USDA numbers in the January report with old crop prices settling into a range and 2025 steadily moving higher. The funds are long 1.8 billion bushels and staying long which is helping this market higher with the general fear being a huge corn acreage number for this year that could present a problem. South American weather remains consistent with non-threatening forecasts while the US has a striking cold few days coming. There are multiple items supporting a continued grind higher from here, but funds have their hand on the scale so keeping an eye on what they do and what the technicals are saying will be important as well as harvest data out of South America. It is never too early to look at making sales for the 2025 crop year once you know your breakeven. You can always look at re-owning it on paper if the market really makes moves higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been trading flat since the January USDA Report bump. South America’s record crop present price challenges to the US as we are not the main supplier for the world anymore. A renewed trade war with China would certainly have negative effects again on the soybean market. South America yield numbers and any tariff wars will be the main news in the market until planting begins. Beans inability to continue the rally like corn is not surprising but the corn-bean price ratio that we are seeing is going to make for some interesting conversations when planting is decided.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile as we start the year with the Magnificent 7 taking a break while managers repositioning for expected moves (or lack thereof) from the Fed. With the constant talk of tariffs and then delays to implementation, it provides a volatile market within different sectors.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat has moved higher recently with record cold weather and winterkill concern driving it to a technical breakout.
  • Livestock prices have pulled back this month but are still at strong prices as the head count in the US remains on the small side.
  • Tariff announcements remain at the top of mind of the markets as uncertainty is the main issue with no clear guidance and kicking the can down the road.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

27 Jan 2025
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Uncategorized, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 10 – JANUARY 25

A lot has happened in the corn market since our last update, from a new administration taking office to a surprise USDA report. The final yield and stocks for 2024 came in well lower than previous USDA estimates leading to a solid rally for a market that needed it. The USDA lowered the final average yield to 179.3 bu/ac, down from their estimate of 183.1 bu/ac in November. The market had been priced in for a 182+ yield so as you can see in the chart below the market responded appropriately. The market popped higher to reach new 6-month highs following the report and has continued higher with funds having long positions in the market.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ also got a bump following the January USDA report. The USDA lowered the US crop from 51.7 bu/ac in November to 50.7. The yield cuts worked through to ending stocks but did not completely match as demand numbers were slightly trimmed with harvested acres raised. The Biden administration did not help out the SAF industry on their way out as bean crush plants remain in limbo on its future as a less eco friendly Trump administration takes over. What was projected to be a huge win for soybean growers now is a cloud that you do not know how long it hangs around before it rains. South America’s yields were barely changed with their forecasts now the most important thing to the markets (outside of President Trump starting any trade wars).

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have had a volatile end to 2024 and start of 2025 but overall seem to be in a good place as Q4 earnings start to come in. A wave went through the market with Chinese DeepSeek coming out with an opensource AI model that is much cheaper than anything in the US. This caused tech stocks to plummet to start the week with Nvidia losing over 15%. With no immediate tariff action by the Trump administration the market sighed some relief as this administration appears to be taking a more measured approach than in President Trump’s previous term.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The USDA’s revisions lower were both surprising in a positive way and frustrating how they were so wrong on the data the market traded for the last few months when farmers had to sell.
  • The Trump administration had their first spat over deporting illegal immigrants with Colombia president Petro while mutually threatening tariffs over the handling of the situation.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

10 Dec 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 10

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between $4.30-$4.55 heading into the new year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ last few weeks of trade between $9.80 and $10 has not provided much bullish optimism. There were no surprises in the Dec USDA report as large South American crop expectations and the US bean carryout doubling from 2023 are still bearish influences. Soybeans have a tough road ahead as South America is on pace to produce another record crop, and the incoming administration will likely not be biofuel friendly in the US. With all the recent investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, there is a cloud that hangs over those areas that we are not sure if it is nothing and will blow over or a storm that may linger.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have continued higher with some recent weaknesses in the largest stocks while strength in the market has broadened. Analysts are beginning to release their outlooks for 2025, while plenty still feel good about the market do not expect another year of 20+% returns like we saw in ’23 and ’24 (so far) after the down year in ’22.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The Assad regime in Syria is over. Israel and Hamas appear close to reaching a temporary ceasefire. The fallout of both will be watched by energy markets as many questions will emerge in the region.
  • There was a slight cut to US wheat stocks, but world stocks are as expected, and comfortable as low Russian cash prices continue to reflect their ample supplies.

 

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

18 Nov 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCT 29 – NOV 18

December ’24 corn rallied back to the $4.30-point last week, matching its recent highs from the start of the month. Corn’s 40+ cent rally from the August lows has been very welcome as harvest wrapped up and bins were getting full. Corn struggled to hold this level of trading for long a few weeks ago but with the December contract getting ready to expire and all the focus shifting to March the markets need some help to push to the $4.50 mark. Funds are long 550 million bushels of corn, the largest long position in 21 months. The November 8th USDA report had the ’24 US corn crop at 183.1 bu/ac, avoiding the fears of the USDA finding an even bigger crop and raising yields that would’ve sent the market lower. Exports have been solid but within expectations as post-election trade will involve countries positioning themselves ahead of the new Trump presidency.

Via Barchart

Soybeans recent rally was quickly given back with January soybeans trading just over $10. The recent lows in the $9.75 range appear to the where support is showing up as it has traded down to that range a few times but keeps bouncing back. The USDA had the US soybean production to 51.7 bu/ac, below the 52.8 bu/ac estimate the markets had priced in. While the market got an initial bounce from the report the fact that another trade war may be on the horizon with record bean yields in the US and South America, the supply and demand story is not friendly in its current state.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied following the presidential election and have since given some back. While Trump is seen a market friendly, the “who will benefit?” is a big question mark as tariffs and promised lower government spending will have widespread effects. Republicans will control the house and senate but with some senators not high on Trump, he likely will need some help to do everything he wants (think Manchin and Sinema with Dems).

Via Barchart

Other News

  • South America is off to a good start with another record crop expected with the expanded acreage.
  • Cotton has had a rough 2 months after falling below 70 cents with the recent low of $0.6626 squarely in the crosshairs.
  • The USD has moved higher topping 106 following the election.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

29 Oct 2024
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 4 – 29

Corn has been range-bound the last 2 months between $4 and $4.40. With no weather issues during harvest following a very dry end of the growing season, the market did not get any unexpected help to push it higher. Mexico continues to buy US corn at a fast pace, appearing again in the export reports. With no major problems starting the year in South America and smooth sailing to the finish of US harvest there does not appear to be anything to give this market a boost. Expect technicals to play a major role in the direction of the trade for the near term as the fundamental trade will be reliant on harvest news.

Via Barchart

Soybeans weakness over the month has lowered it with corn. Beans do not have any bullish news on the horizon as they failed to rally through technical resistance. With the election next week, a tariff war with China would hurt beans in an already depressed market as we have seen in the past. Funds are very short and will need a catalyst to get them to change course, which currently is lacking. Bean harvest is 89% complete which means there won’t be much opportunity for unexpected bullish news moving forward.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue higher as the biggest week of earnings kicks off. The Fed is expected to cut rates again by the end of the year, but inflation and jobs data are sending a mixed picture. The 10-year US treasuries have moved higher since the rate cut as the market is questioning whether or not the Fed will get it right.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • China announced that total grain production this year would be a record 700 million metric tons. As China continues to increase domestic production of edible commodities while continuing to invest in South America the US needs to find a new partner to replace their demand as they continue to try and be less reliant on American agriculture.
  • Crude Oil has been volatile but has moved lower this week as possible easing tensions in the Middle East as cease fire negotiations restart.
  • With the election results potentially being unknown for a few days following November 5 there could be some volatility in all markets.
  • The October insurance averages are $4.16 1/2 for corn and $10.06 for beans as of 10/29. The February insurance averages were $4.67 for corn and $11.60 for beans.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

07 Oct 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – OCTOBER 4

Corn’s rally back to $4.25 has been welcome heading into harvest as South America’s weather started off a little weary but have added rains to the upcoming forecast. The US drought to end growing season does not appear to have impacted the corn crop very much. Export demand has picked up putting us ahead of the USDA annual projections. The recent rally has taken corn above other major exporters which will likely lead to slowing exports unless South American weather becomes more of a concern. Harvest has gotten off to an average start with 21% harvested as dry weather shouldn’t cause any problems in the next week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans faded to end the week as harvest progress and pressure lead to profit taking after the recent rally. The biggest news related to soybeans, non harvest related, is that congress seems to be working on bipartisan legislature to address the importing of used cooking oil while still collecting tax credits. The American farmer wants this loophole closed to force biofuel producers in the US to use domestic production. This will lead to millions of more bushels used at crush facilities in the US throughout the year with a major question of, what happens to the bean meal? The longer congress and the lobbying associations take on this legislature will lead to more frustration among farmers across the country so with it being an election year I would be careful with what gets “leaked” by parties involved. The end of year drought across much of the US likely led to a smaller crop as pods did not get the moisture needed for max fill. Bean harvest is slightly ahead of expectations at 26% to start the week of Sept 30.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue to roll hitting new all-time highs as Fed rate cuts and the likelihood of a soft landing becomes higher. The market has broadened out but the biggest names (Nvidia, Meta, etc) are still doing well. With rates lowering over the next year expect money that has been getting 5%+ in fixed income to begin to move back into the market. Chinese stimulus prompted a large rally in Chinese stocks this week as they try to get their economy going again.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The Fed announced a 50-basis point rate cut this month, cutting rates for the first time since the Pandemic. More rates are expected into the end of the year.
  • Tensions in the Middle East escalated as Iran launched attacks on Israel. Israel is expected to respond but how and when remain unknown, with attacks on oil fields a possibility crude oil rallied over the week.
  • Hurricane Helene caused massive devastation in the United States Southeast over the weekend causing loss of life and destruction of major infrastructure. The total amount of damage is still unknown, but it will take the mountain communities a long time to recover.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

12 Sep 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 26 – SEPTEMBER 12

Corn has gotten back above $4.00 in a struggling market that needs good news to propel it back to the mid $4s. The USDA raised US corn yield to 183.6 bu/ac up from 183.1 bu/ac in last month’s report. In the USDA’s eyes the crop is getting bigger as struggling areas will be more than made up for by the best areas across the corn belt. Despite the higher US yield numbers, the corn trade following the report was welcome to see as it did not move much lower on larger numbers. If corn can bounce off or hold this $4 level then we can probably expect it to hang around here as planting gets rolling until we know what is actually in the field and if the numbers are closer to 180 or 183.6.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice 50+ cent rally off recent lows with dryness in areas causing a little concern with pod fill and some pickup in demand. The USDA kept yield the same at 53.2 bu/ac as they agree with Pro Farmer tour that a massive crop is out there. Like corn, this recent bounce off lows is encouraging but may setup a range bound trade until harvest gets rolling and we have a better idea on the true yield. The USDA did slightly lower US ending stocks in both 23/24 and 24/25. Continued exports and any issues to South American planting are needed to drive beans higher in the current market.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster lately with the tech/semiconductor trade having quite a bit of volatility while some rotation occurs with the Fed rate cuts expected to begin this month.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate this month

Wheat

  • Wheat has been the one positive market lately, hitting new 2-month highs. The war in Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate and the market has responded accordingly. The USDA did not make any major changes in the report.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

26 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 26

Corn’s continued weakness following the August USDA report. Pro Farmer completed their crop tour last week and see the US yield being 181.1 bu/ac and a total 14.979-billion-bushel production. With another record crop expected this year, the market is continuing lower as plenty of 2023 corn remains in storage needing to be moved before this year’s harvest gets underway. The end of month heat is not expected to do much damage to the corn crop, but this crop is not done yet and still needs some more rain to get to the finish line. While demand is improving in the commodity space with a weaker USD, the large supply is still driving prices lower for the time being. There is not any major news to keep an eye on coming up except export and weather news.

Via Barchart

Pro Farmer found a massive crop in their tour last week estimating the 2024 US bean crop at 54.9 bu/ac(!!) and 4.74-billion-bushel total production. This soybean yield would easily be a record and would justify the collapse in bean prices seen this year. The current heat will likely stress the crop a bit, making that big a yield unlikely, however we should still expect to see a record crop, like corn. Soybeans need some good news in the form of demand whether that be from exports or the sustainable fuel market to get this thing turned around without production concerns in South America.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rallied back to recent highs after a small correction with the Yen carry unwind and some market broadening out of tech. With earnings season coming to an end markets will trade on economic data and any election surprises after Nvidia this week.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Fed chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole last week and set up for the Fed to begin cutting rates next month.
  • The Canadian rail strike started and seemingly ended quickly with the government stepping in and saying that arbitration will decide negotiations.
  • Wheat’s summer trend lower from the $7.59 high looks to continue as it is not getting any help from other commodities to pull it up.

Drought Monitor

  

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

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