Category: Weather

29 Apr 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 14 – 29

Over the past two weeks, corn futures have experienced significant volatility, primarily from trade policy developments and supply and demand dynamics. In early April, the market faced pressure as the U.S. implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, prompting retaliatory measures, including a 15% tariff on U.S. corn by China. This escalation raised concerns about reduced export demand, leading to a sell-off in corn futures. However, the market rebounded when President Trump announced a delay in the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods, alleviating fears of diminished demand from Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. corn. The market has tight US and global supplies with the recent USDA revisions resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.6%, the lowest in 3 years. South American weather remains non-threatening and US planting continues to make progress with many areas ready to get rolling in May.

Soybeans have also faced sharp swings in the past two weeks, driven by global trade tensions, weather and repositioning. China’s retaliatory tariffs on US beans lead to a big drop in US exports, at the same time Brazil’s exports to China surged. Weather in some areas of Brazil has raised some concerns about a potential dip in yield but another record crop is still expected. Spec traders have started positioning a small long position after it has been beaten down so much they are hoping for a rally that could come with any US issues with planting or lower planted acres.

Equity Markets

Markets have seen wild volatility this month but have calmed lately as the S&P 500 tries to hold above 5,500, a point many saw as resistance. While trade negotiations on tariffs continue with the world the market needs a stream of announcements that progress is being made as the 90-day delay will get here very quickly.

Other News

Global wheat supplies face potential tightening through next year due to lower production in the Black Sea as the Russia Ukraine war continues on.
Cattle prices continue to record highs as the US headcount is the lowest level since 1951.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

14 Apr 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 31 – APRIL 14

Old crop corn has had a strong rally over the last 2 weeks, having a 40 cent rally after trading relatively flat since its 80 cent pullback in February. While markets were rallying before President Trump’s announcement of a 90 day pause on tariffs, they liked that news to push higher. Any positive news about negotiations with Mexico would be great for corn. The April 10^th crop report cut old crop stocks more than expected on increased exports by 100 million bushels, but a modest 25-million-bushel demand cut to US feed demand. US planting should accelerate this week as weather is favorable and where planting hasn’t started allow for field work to get done. Weather during planting will be the main factor if we end up having 95-96 million acres of corn planted.

Soybeans have also benefited from the recent rally corn has. While the rally may be losing steam until we have a better idea on how many acres will actually be planted in the US, new crop’s rally above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages provides some support under a volatile market. China continuing buying beans will be important as any mass cancelations will signal trade issues in Washington. As trade negotiations continue it will be important for small wins for the ag sector in all of them who are currently buyers.

Equity Markets

“Liberation Day” created sharp market selloff with the White House announcing a delay to the tariffs a week later as countries came forward wanting to negotiate. The markets are well off their highs from February as well off their lows from the post tariff announcement. As the market is in flux as they try to get a feel for what could come next for the economy (recession?) or what comes with these negotiations and China, volatility will likely remain on any headline news.

Other News

Any progress in trade agreements with Mexico could be good for corn prices as they are our largest buyer. China needs to continue buying beans and any trade progress with them would help beans.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

31 Mar 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31

The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now.

Soybeans came in at 83.495 million acres as their lack of profitability at current prices is making farmers switch some acres to corn. As you can see from the chart below there have not been much help for beans but if this acreage number is close to what we see, it is hard to think they would dip much below $10. The post report action was disappointing as beans continued lower.

Wheat had bullish news from the report as acreage came in 1.125 million below estimates. Wheat has some bullish world news for price with emergence concerns in the Black Sea and US Plains, despite recent price action. News out of the Black Sea and any issues with the US crop will be market movers for now.

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their volatile swings while President Trump’s “day of liberation” approaches on April 2 when tariffs are supposed to be going in place. Volatility will be the name of the game as many unknowns remain in the trade wars.

Other News

Cotton acres came in at 9.867 million. This is 1.315 million acres less than last year. Cotton needs to see demand pick up to get back and stay over 70 cents/lb.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches the drought monitor begins to become important again as subsoil moisture always seems to be a problem somewhere.

PRICES

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

10 Dec 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 10

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between $4.30-$4.55 heading into the new year.

Soybeans’ last few weeks of trade between $9.80 and $10 has not provided much bullish optimism. There were no surprises in the Dec USDA report as large South American crop expectations and the US bean carryout doubling from 2023 are still bearish influences. Soybeans have a tough road ahead as South America is on pace to produce another record crop, and the incoming administration will likely not be biofuel friendly in the US. With all the recent investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, there is a cloud that hangs over those areas that we are not sure if it is nothing and will blow over or a storm that may linger.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have continued higher with some recent weaknesses in the largest stocks while strength in the market has broadened. Analysts are beginning to release their outlooks for 2025, while plenty still feel good about the market do not expect another year of 20+% returns like we saw in ’23 and ’24 (so far) after the down year in ’22.

Other News

The Assad regime in Syria is over. Israel and Hamas appear close to reaching a temporary ceasefire. The fallout of both will be watched by energy markets as many questions will emerge in the region.
There was a slight cut to US wheat stocks, but world stocks are as expected, and comfortable as low Russian cash prices continue to reflect their ample supplies.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

18 Nov 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCT 29 – NOV 18

December ’24 corn rallied back to the $4.30-point last week, matching its recent highs from the start of the month. Corn’s 40+ cent rally from the August lows has been very welcome as harvest wrapped up and bins were getting full. Corn struggled to hold this level of trading for long a few weeks ago but with the December contract getting ready to expire and all the focus shifting to March the markets need some help to push to the $4.50 mark. Funds are long 550 million bushels of corn, the largest long position in 21 months. The November 8^th USDA report had the ’24 US corn crop at 183.1 bu/ac, avoiding the fears of the USDA finding an even bigger crop and raising yields that would’ve sent the market lower. Exports have been solid but within expectations as post-election trade will involve countries positioning themselves ahead of the new Trump presidency.

Soybeans recent rally was quickly given back with January soybeans trading just over $10. The recent lows in the $9.75 range appear to the where support is showing up as it has traded down to that range a few times but keeps bouncing back. The USDA had the US soybean production to 51.7 bu/ac, below the 52.8 bu/ac estimate the markets had priced in. While the market got an initial bounce from the report the fact that another trade war may be on the horizon with record bean yields in the US and South America, the supply and demand story is not friendly in its current state.

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied following the presidential election and have since given some back. While Trump is seen a market friendly, the “who will benefit?” is a big question mark as tariffs and promised lower government spending will have widespread effects. Republicans will control the house and senate but with some senators not high on Trump, he likely will need some help to do everything he wants (think Manchin and Sinema with Dems).

Other News

South America is off to a good start with another record crop expected with the expanded acreage.
Cotton has had a rough 2 months after falling below 70 cents with the recent low of $0.6626 squarely in the crosshairs.
The USD has moved higher topping 106 following the election.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

29 Oct 2024

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 4 – 29

Corn has been range-bound the last 2 months between $4 and $4.40. With no weather issues during harvest following a very dry end of the growing season, the market did not get any unexpected help to push it higher. Mexico continues to buy US corn at a fast pace, appearing again in the export reports. With no major problems starting the year in South America and smooth sailing to the finish of US harvest there does not appear to be anything to give this market a boost. Expect technicals to play a major role in the direction of the trade for the near term as the fundamental trade will be reliant on harvest news.

Soybeans weakness over the month has lowered it with corn. Beans do not have any bullish news on the horizon as they failed to rally through technical resistance. With the election next week, a tariff war with China would hurt beans in an already depressed market as we have seen in the past. Funds are very short and will need a catalyst to get them to change course, which currently is lacking. Bean harvest is 89% complete which means there won’t be much opportunity for unexpected bullish news moving forward.

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue higher as the biggest week of earnings kicks off. The Fed is expected to cut rates again by the end of the year, but inflation and jobs data are sending a mixed picture. The 10-year US treasuries have moved higher since the rate cut as the market is questioning whether or not the Fed will get it right.

Other News

China announced that total grain production this year would be a record 700 million metric tons. As China continues to increase domestic production of edible commodities while continuing to invest in South America the US needs to find a new partner to replace their demand as they continue to try and be less reliant on American agriculture.
Crude Oil has been volatile but has moved lower this week as possible easing tensions in the Middle East as cease fire negotiations restart.
With the election results potentially being unknown for a few days following November 5 there could be some volatility in all markets.
The October insurance averages are $4.16 1/2 for corn and $10.06 for beans as of 10/29. The February insurance averages were $4.67 for corn and $11.60 for beans.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

26 Aug 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 26

Corn’s continued weakness following the August USDA report. Pro Farmer completed their crop tour last week and see the US yield being 181.1 bu/ac and a total 14.979-billion-bushel production. With another record crop expected this year, the market is continuing lower as plenty of 2023 corn remains in storage needing to be moved before this year’s harvest gets underway. The end of month heat is not expected to do much damage to the corn crop, but this crop is not done yet and still needs some more rain to get to the finish line. While demand is improving in the commodity space with a weaker USD, the large supply is still driving prices lower for the time being. There is not any major news to keep an eye on coming up except export and weather news.

Pro Farmer found a massive crop in their tour last week estimating the 2024 US bean crop at 54.9 bu/ac(!!) and 4.74-billion-bushel total production. This soybean yield would easily be a record and would justify the collapse in bean prices seen this year. The current heat will likely stress the crop a bit, making that big a yield unlikely, however we should still expect to see a record crop, like corn. Soybeans need some good news in the form of demand whether that be from exports or the sustainable fuel market to get this thing turned around without production concerns in South America.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rallied back to recent highs after a small correction with the Yen carry unwind and some market broadening out of tech. With earnings season coming to an end markets will trade on economic data and any election surprises after Nvidia this week.

Other News

Fed chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole last week and set up for the Fed to begin cutting rates next month.
The Canadian rail strike started and seemingly ended quickly with the government stepping in and saying that arbitration will decide negotiations.
Wheat’s summer trend lower from the $7.59 high looks to continue as it is not getting any help from other commodities to pull it up.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

12 Aug 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 22 – AUGUST 12

Corn moved lower in the last couple weeks to trade around $4 heading into the August 12^th USDA report. While the market saw small gains after the report, the numbers will continue to put pressure on corn as a record crop is headed our way. The August report has the US crop with a 183.1 bpa, 15.147-billion-bushel production, with good weather in the forecast there is not much to push this market higher currently. While these numbers are more bearish than expected, the market response to finish higher is a welcome sight after another move lower.

Beans have very little positive news behind them as you can see from the chart. The US yield was bumped to a would be record of 53.2 bpa while harvested acres were 1.2 million acres higher than the trade was expecting, neither are good for prices. Brazil planting will get rolling in about a month with acreage expansion expected again. With prices this low, the acreage expansion will not be as straight forward as in the past but with no weather issues here or in South America there is not much supporting beans. Corn and beans would both greatly benefit from funds getting out of some short positions.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile over the last couple weeks with last Monday seeing some huge swings in global equity markets. With rate cuts expected in September and a big week of economic news we should get a better idea of what to expect heading into the election.

Other News

Election years add another wrinkle in the markets as Kamala Harris’ campaign has been off to a fast start naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as VP running mate ahead of the DNC in Chicago next week.
Escalation in war in Israel/Gaza and Ukraine/Russia will be worth keeping an eye on as it could lead to issues in global energy supply.
Wheat numbers were slightly bullish in the report with production and stocks below estimates

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

22 Jul 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 8 – 22

Corn has consolidated in the $4 to $4.20 range since July 8 even with the USDA report. The USDA did not release any major updates to production as they let expected US yield at 181 bu/ac but it did have lower ending stocks for the next 2 years with increased old crop exports and increased feed demand. This bullish news was not enough to put a fire behind corn as the US crop this year remains on record breaking pace with the great weather start to the year. The forecasts to start the week were adjusted for a warmer drier US starting this week than initially thought, lifting markets.

Beans seemed to find a near term bottom last week trading into the low $10.30 range. The sharp rally to start the week was a welcome sign with the largest up day for the Nov contract in at least the last 6 months. The USDA made minimal changes to soybeans in their update while adding demand to offset potentially record yields in the US. As we head into the back half of summer the bean market will trade on export demand from China and US weather.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have shown volatility in July as several mega cap stocks that had been driving the market fell last week while small cap stocks saw their best week in years. The market is expecting rate cuts in September and the moves of last week appear to be repositioning within the market as funds space out their funds more away from the biggest stocks.

Other News

President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection in November and put his support behind Kamala Harris to be the Democrats nominee. The DNC is in Chicago next week where unless a challenger pops up, she will become the nominee.
An assassination attempt on former president and current GOP nominee Donald Trump occurred at a rally last week after a gunmen fired on him at the event hitting his ear and killing someone in attendance.
The Ag markets will pay attention to the election as tariffs and trade wars (potentially from both candidates) are on the table.
Cotton continues its weakness drifting lower as the US is trending towards a large crop at this point in the year with weak demand from the global market.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

08 Jul 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 14 – JULY 8

Corn had the bottom fall out of it after trading between $4.60 and $5 from March to June. The USDA last week pegged the US corn crop at 91.475 million acres, over 1 million acres higher than the trade estimate. The USDA did make a note that those were the reported acres at the time of the survey so there is a good chance not all those acres end up getting planted. The crop ratings are currently better than last year’s at this time that led to a record crop and with no major weather concerns on the horizon and rains from Beryl expected to help some areas in the ECB later this week. With no major weather concern in the US or abroad right now, corn will need to find help in demand or fund buying as ending stocks remain high.

Beans seemed to find a slight rally heading into the 4^th of July before having a sharply lower start to the week, falling below $12 in the November futures contract. While the corn acreage number was bearish the soybean acres came in at 86.1 million acres (below the trade estimate of 86.783). The June 1^st stocks number was slightly higher, but the markets could not find a catalyst higher. With no major weather issues on the horizon beans will need the funds to get out of their short positions while the charts still look bearish.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have remained strong as they continue to set new highs. The market is looking to broaden after being very top heavy the first half of the year. With an election and possible rate cuts in the second half of this year, the market will have plenty of information outside of earnings to watch for.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

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Disclaimers
RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.