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Blog Digest
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand
Recap: We are all trying to shape this market not with clay but with wet sand. Each negative seems to overwhelm the positive. While the housing pace continues on its post-COVID run, there are signs of fatigue. As we measure ongoing business, we continue to get hit with bad news. The 8% mortgage was expected. […]
USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE
2023 Yield Estimate: 173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate) 23/24 US Corn Stocks: 2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate) 23/24 World Corn Stocks: 312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) The USDA lowered US […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The housing market is entering into a “great pause.”
Recap: The housing market is entering into a “great pause.” That will show up as less buying, selling, and construction. The lumber side of this industry has already been in the great pause mode for most of 2023. Housing has a typical pause nearing year-end, clearing the decks and creating a good spring. Some now […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: “Everyone is worried about everything.”
“Everyone is worried about everything.” That was a quote from a Morgan Stanley person regarding the overall economy Friday. Worry is the emotion driving our industry today. I’ll attempt to temper that despair. Let’s face it: the market has been flat for almost 18 months. The profit margins have shrunk to pre-2000 levels. Every dollar […]
USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview
First Glance: Overview: The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday
Recap: The market rallied $17.50 for the week before the turnaround on Friday. Futures went from a discount to par. The bounce was not unexpected. A correction was needed after the longer-than-expected down leg we just sat through. With JIT inventory management, the buyers are near fumes after about four weeks. What was surprising was […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market is dropping subtle hints of extended weakness
Lumber Weekly Recap: The market is dropping subtle hints of extended weakness. A few months ago, I confidently said that $500 September futures held value. That may be different for November this time around. The marketplace has gotten in front of their remaining 2023 needs. Obvious deals out there are getting ignored. This side of […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: This market has been flat, is flat, and will remain flat in the near future
Lumber Weekly Last Week: This market has been flat, is flat, and will remain flat in the near future. Every truck and every car bought out there is a battle. The gloves are off. The struggle is how to pull out a profit from a market so flat. The only possible mover to this market […]
AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 1 – 15
The September USDA Report this week did not give the bulls much to work with, having yield come in above estimates at 175.8 bu/ac and increasing planted acres by 800,000. The increased acreage and yield would still result in a record crop of 15.134 billion bushels despite the drought conditions that bookended this growing season. […]
LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: WAS THERE A KEY TAKEAWAY LAST WEEK?
Lumber Weekly Last Week: Was there a key takeaway last week? No. It was a holiday-shortened week that saw liquidation and rolling. The focus was on moving positions and not price discovery. There was a slight erosion in the cash market as the week ended. I’m unsure if it was a lack of interest or […]