Tag: Grains

16 Jan 2024

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks

Overview

January 12, 2024

First Glance:

Corn        

USDA Yield:   177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov)

Harvested Area:  86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 MMT (312.9 Estimate – 315.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 182 MMT (180 Estimate – 184 Nov)

Beans      

USDA Yield:   50.6 BPA (49.9 Estimate – 49.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 4.165 BBU (4.134 Estimate – 4.129 Nov)

Harvested Area:  82.356 (82.757 Estimate – 82.791 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  280 MBU (245 Estimate – 245 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 114.6 MMT (111.9 Estimate – 114.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 212.0 MMT (204.9 Estimate – 209 Nov)

Wheat     

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  648 MBU (659 Estimate – 659 Nov)

Winter Wheat Seedings: 34.425 MA (35.786 Estimate – 36.699 LY)

23/24 World Stocks: 260.0 MMT (258.3 Estimate – 258.2 Nov)

 

The USDA found larger than expected totals in almost every category, increasing corn yield 2.4 bpa over the November estimate to 177.3 bpa. This is both a record yield and record total crop of 15.342 billion bushels. Bean yield was also raised .7 bpa to 50.6 and a total crop of 4.165 bbu. Both corn and bean harvested acres were slightly trimmed, the only bullish news in the report.

Higher yields were pushed through to higher ending stocks with US corn carryover raised to 2.162 bbu (+31 mbu from Nov) and 803 mbu above last year’s stocks. Beans had a similar fate with stocks set at 280 mbu, up 35 mbu from November but only 16 mbu above last year. Wheat stocks were slightly smaller than expected at 648 mbu but still up 78 mbu from 22/23.

Despite the rough start to Brazil’s growing season in their northern regions, Brazil’s bean and corn crops were not cut as much as expected. The weather has improved hurting the bullish narrative of a bad year for Brazil but the expanded acreage will also help offset any damage done earlier in the year.

There has not been any good news lately and prices reflect that. In June there was concern over the US crop with corn a $6.25 and beans at $14, now today has made new contract and multi-year lows in corn, soybeans and wheat.

18 Dec 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 1 – 15

Corn has been rage bound for the last two weeks with no catalysts in the market to move it much either direction. The weather in South America has improved slightly in areas that got off to a tough start but doesn’t seem to have made much a difference on the market. It is still a wait and see approach for the South American crop, nobody wants to jump to conclusions. Th Biden administration is supporting tax credits for ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel, which would result in a major new demand source down the road. The markets will likely be muted in both volume and price movement as we head into the end of the year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have bounced around the last couple of weeks with a steady stream of exports and the Argentinian peso devaluation. The latest crush report from NOPA recorded a record for the month and about 3 million bushels more than pre-report estimates. The demand for beans has been there and seems to be significant but with so much time still to go before South America’s crop is known. Estimates keep shrinking the Bazil crop, which the market shrugs off, making it a hard market to be overly bullish in when good news is not met with good market reactions.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continued their run higher this week as the Fed kept rates steady and seem likely to begin cuts in 2024. The rest of the market has begun participating as the Magnificent 7 stocks had done most of the heavy lifting to this point. Analysts are still warry of a soft landing recession but for now the markets are moving higher in the short term.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The Fed held rates steady this week with markets expecting them to start cutting in the first half of 2024.
  • Argentina devalued the peso by more than 50% to try and help the nation’s struggling economy.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

01 Dec 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9 – DECEMBER 1

Corn has had a rough month as it continues its sideways to lower grind after briefly touching $5.20 in October for the March contract. While there has not been any major market news to direct the market a strong weekly export report this week was welcome to the market that had been bleeding lower. The last few days saw a nice reversal, seeing a 14-cent rally off this week’s lows. Basis has taken a nosedive in many areas of the country hinting that there may be more corn out there than initially expected. With harvest all but wrapped up for most of the country it will be worth keeping an eye on whether farmers store the corn and hope for better basis or get it off their books to pay back operating loans at the highest rates we have seen in years. Brazil’s weather remains about the same with beneficial rains expected over the next couple of weeks in the drier areas north and the south remains wet.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have fallen over the last couple of weeks but is in a sideways trade in the big picture. Exports were not as strong as corn but better than expected. Brazil’s weather is the main focus for beans right now as the north is drier than normal and the south is still wet. The bean demand from China is welcome, as always, but sustained demand and not just demand while Brazil is having logistic issues will be important. The amount of rain in Brazil next week will be the main market mover until the report on Friday if we get some surprises.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a great November seeing strong gains across the board as the Fed speak has turned dovish and inflation continues to cool. The markets are pricing in the Fed beginning to cut rates in the first half of 2024 while the general consensus by large companies and funds is that a mild recession is still in the cards next year. The big names had a good month and the 10-year note fell, but it was encouraging to see some laggards join the party. The end of the year always involves some shuffling, but economic data will continue to move the markets now that earnings are past.

Via Barchart

 

Other News

  • Charlie Munger passed away this week at the age of 99. A longtime investor and one of the brightest minds for financial markets the Berkshire Hathaway investor left his mark and knowledge on the financial markets.
  • The next WASDE Report is Friday, December 8 at 12 ET
  • Brazil is set to join OPEC+. Brazil produces about 3.7 million barrels a day which makes it a top 10 oil producing country.
  • The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended as hostage swap negotiations stalled. The unrest in the Middle East will continue to dominate headlines.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

09 Nov 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9

The November USDA Report raised US yields and ending stocks. From what we have been hearing about yields in the eastern corn belt the rise in yields was not that unexpected while a 1.9 bu/ac jump higher to 174.9 was not quite expected. Rarely does the November report differ so much from the Sep/Oct yields, but the yields in IL, IN, and OH made up for losses seen in the western corn belt and plains. Current support is at $4.67 for Dec corn, but a close below that could lead lower. If that holds, we should expect the sideways trade we have seen for the next month+. US corn yield 174.9 bpa. Us corn production 15.234 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had seen a good run over the last couple of weeks until the USDA report took a hit. While beans are still well off their lows the report’s reaction saw beans lose 20 cents. Like corn, soybeans saw their yield increased to 49.9 bu/ac. The Chinese demand situation and northern Brazil’s dry weather have been bullish for beans and will be a bullish talking point if they last and the main news moving forward. US soybean yield 49.9 bu/ac. US soybean production 4.129 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had their longest winning streak of the year in the past couple weeks, climbing back from the latest move lower. Inflation is cooling and the Fed appeared to be done (for now) with changing rates which allows the market to take a deep breath as a “soft landing” appears attainable. Fed Chair Powell today said that he is not confident the Fed has achieved sufficiently restrictive rate to bring down inflation, allowing for some concern of further rate hikes. While earnings have not been stellar across the board strength in some important areas has given the markets fuel for this most recent rally.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton is a supply and demand story right now with ample supply and a lack of demand. World geopolitical issues and the risk of a recession have kept buying down as producers do not want to be stuck with inventory nobody wants to buy.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

16 Oct 2023

USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE

                     

                        2023 Yield Estimate:  173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Corn Stocks:  2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Corn Stocks:  312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) 

  • The USDA lowered US corn yield 0.5 bu/ac which is in line with what we have been hearing from farmers in the field with many areas having great yields but the July heat and dryness did too much damage in other areas. The USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels while also revising beginning stocks down 91 million bushels.

 

                       2023 Yield Estimate:  49.6 BPA (49.9 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Bean Stocks:  220 MBU (233 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Bean Stocks:  115.62 MMT (119.71 MMT Estimate)

  • The bean numbers were lowered as well with the USDA bringing yield down 0.5 bu/acre. The markets responded favorably to this while the USDA raised beginning stocks, lowered exports, and kept ending stocks the same at 220 million bushels. The drop in bean production was slightly offset by the lowered exports and higher crush.

 

                        23/24 US Wheat Stocks:  670 MBU (647 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Wheat Stocks:  258.13 MMT (258.38 MMT Estimate)

  • The world wheat picture is still clouded by conflict between Russia and Ukraine but the USDA lowered world ending stocks while raising US ending stocks. The Australian wheat crop was lowered 1.5 mmt.

 

Overview:

The USDA gave bulls some life after a sideways trade in corn and lower bean trade the last 2 months. As harvest continues to roll the picture will become clearer but the record low levels on the Mississippi River are being monitored and could lead to the same problems last time this happened with bottlenecks in the export space. As the war in Ukraine continues, war in Israel (a US ally) and the continued tensions between China and Taiwan, the world geopolitical climate is tense and could have ripple effects in world trade.   

December 2023 Corn

November 2023 Beans

December 2023 Wheat

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2023

USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview

First Glance:

Overview:

The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 range. The bottom line is that the USDA took away part of the only potentially bullish story in beans while reminding everyone that the world grain markets are well supplied after Brazil and Russia’s record crops and their willingness to be the world’s cheapest source of corn and wheat.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

17 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 1 – 15

The September USDA Report this week did not give the bulls much to work with, having yield come in above estimates at 175.8 bu/ac and increasing planted acres by 800,000. The increased acreage and yield would still result in a record crop of 15.134 billion bushels despite the drought conditions that bookended this growing season. The largest sale of corn to China since April occurred this week as they made a purchase at the lowest prices in months even with a strong USD. While the markets trade the USDA report, the cash markets in areas are telling a different story with strong seasonal basis and poor crop ratings. Combines will get rolling in the coming weeks and will tell the story of this crop.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell following the report as well, with the numbers coming in close to expectations but not enough to spark high volumes of buying. The US soybean yield of 50.1 bu/ac following the brutal heat over the end of August and start of September did damage to this crop, but to what extent is hard to tell. The soybean balance sheets are tight for ending stocks and any lower yield from here would eat further into it. The soybean crush numbers were disappointing to end the week, but the stocks were low hinting at the lack of soybeans out in the market currently.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been mixed the past couple weeks with various economic data coming in including CPI of 3.7%, slightly hotter than expected, for the month of August. The markets will continue to process data now that earnings are mostly done with, and the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again. The soft landing is still in play, but any economic surprises could derail that.

Via CNBC

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

05 Sep 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 21 – SEPTEMBER 1

Corn has been range bound lately looking for anything to give it direction. The heat and dryness currently happening across most of the US is bullish, but the rains and cool weather before may have given this crop enough to weather the heat. There has been some rain added to the forecast but far enough out to not get too excited about yet. Exports remain steady and within expectations with no major changes expected. Corn has been held down with wheat while Russia sells their wheat for cheap on the world market to pay for the war in Ukraine. Last week’s Pro Farmer tour came back with a 172 bu/ac yield for the US, below the latest USDA report by over 3 bu/ac. While many estimates think the latest USDA is still probably too high, a 172 yield is closer to other estimates even with the current heat. The long weekend always allows for news to change and create a volatile trade to start next week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell this week following helpful rains before the heat. The Pro Farmer tour estimated the US crop to be 49.7 bu/ac, below the USDA projection of 50.9 bu/ac. The soybean balance sheets are tighter than corn and will only get worse the more this crop shrinks down the stretch. New crop sales are well behind USDA projections of an 8% decrease for the 23/24 marketing year, currently running 37% behind last year’s pace. With a shrinking crop it is hard to expect export sales to significantly ramp up but if drought conditions continue with heat and river levels stay low we could see logistic problems again this year. The next few weeks will be important to finish this crop but with harvest approaching most of the damage has likely been done.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets rallied over the last two weeks with some important stocks posting strong quarters such as Nvidia. After a tough August the markets will look to bounce back in September with economic data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

25 Aug 2023

The Role of Commercials and End Users in the Agriculture Industry: Understanding Price/Volatility Risk and Proactive Risk Management

Introduction

The penultimate step of the process for grain is reaching a commercial elevator before going to an end-user to be converted to a final product. These elevators range in size from your local country elevator with little storage capacity to large elevators with millions of bushels capacity. While some producers deliver straight to the end user in areas where that is an option, commercial elevators handle millions and millions of bushels a year of almost every commodity grown in the US. Once the elevators receive the grain, they ship it to the end-user by rail, barge, or other means.

Commercials and How They Fit In

While commercial elevators come towards the end of the process, they have made selling grain as a farmer easier with convenient locations and increased capacity. Railroads played the largest role in the growth and expansion of the United States in the West, which directly led to the growth in farming in the late 1800s. While all elevators are not along railroads or major waterways, you will find the larger ones here as these locations allow for more volume.

On-farm and off-farm storage (elevators) for grains have grown over the years as the US produces more and more while the world consumes it. For the last 20 years, storage capacities have grown close to even with the increase in production and will continue to grow as the world population grows and more supply is needed.

Another example of a commercial facility would be a crush facility. The growth of soybean crush capacity has expanded in the last several years and looks to continue as the demand for soybean oil used in renewable diesel continues to grow. The growth in renewable diesel over the last few years and years to come have made crush facilities a major commercial player now and will only get bigger in the future. Crush facilities close to the growers allow easier access to the beans and competitive prices increase demand.

While it will take time, we will see a shift from soybean meal to soybean oil as the main product coming from these crush facilities. Clean Fuels Alliance America projected renewable diesel production could hit 5.5 billion gallons but 2026 if expansions and new facilities continue. This increase would raise demand for more soy oil, changing the commercial structure that the US has seen in the last 20 years.

End Users and Their Role

End users consume the commodity in all sorts of ways. From feed yards to crush facilities (who then sell the oil and meal) to food production companies, end users cover a wide range of groups. These users face risk on several sides, with the cost of inputs going up and the value of their finished product going down due to other factors. End users face basic economic factors such as recessions and inflation that will affect their revenue, making them adjust their plans of inputs.

While the easy way to think about end users is who makes your cereal, it is crucial to remember how large the commodity space is and that it touches almost every industry. Homebuilders are end users and have seen an increase in their inputs, with lumber moving higher in 2021 before moving lower. If these types of companies cannot effectively manage their risk, it can cost consumers hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars each year.

Proactive and Disciplined Risk Management

Along with the enormous capacity, commercials, and end users also carry a tremendous amount of price/volatility risk requiring a proactive and disciplined risk management approach to maximize the margins of their operation and keep the system moving forward.

Today’s volatile markets have brought unprecedented levels of risk and reward, highlighting the significance of adapting to this environment. With its interdependent supply chain, the agriculture sector is particularly susceptible to the ripple effects of market fluctuations. This is especially true in the current inflation landscape, soaring prices, energy scarcity, and labor shortages.

How RCM Ag Services works with Commercials

RCM Ag Services utilizes our independent standing, national producer reach, and tech partnerships to bring our commercial agriculture customers best-in-class tools and resources to improve efficiency, increase revenues, and generate more customer volume. With our suite of tools and products, your operation can share in markup on products, improve risk management, achieve better FCM clearing rates, and produce more bushels.

Our market commentary allows commercial elevators to keep up with what is going on all over the country and other parts of the world in an easy-to-read and follow format. This allows you to focus on your operation and make it run to its best ability.

For more information on how RCM Ag Services can support your team, follow the link below. https://rcmagservices.com/commercial-agriculture/

21 Aug 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 4 – 21

Corn had a rough two weeks with the cool and wet weather that covered large areas of the US coming just in time on a stressed crop. The August 11 USDA Report came in with a 175.1 bu/acre US yield, slightly below trade estimates. This yield seems very reasonable with the early drought stress and the recent rains to help stabilize the crop. The scorching heat and dry weather coming to most of the US the next week+ will stress the crop but the areas that are no longer experiencing drought conditions (see drought charts below) are positioned to handle it. The ProFarmer crop tour is this week and will give insights into what to expect from this crop and give insights we do not get from the USDA. If the USDA updates the planted acres lower from 94 million in September that will be news the market has eyes on.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have held together well over the last couple of months with the low acreage number supporting it. The weather was not great for beans early on, but like corn, the last couple of weeks have been very beneficial and the heat over the next 10 days can cause some issues. The USDA updated their yield estimates to 50.9 bu/acre, below the trade estimates and previous report but also a reasonable number with how the growing season has gone so far. Bean demand appears to be increasing and if this continues into harvest, momentum behind beans could give it another push that corn seems to be missing. The ProFarmer crop tour will be the news this week along with the hot dry weather, an adjustment to acres down the road is a variable that can change the look of this crop.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have struggled the last few weeks as tech stocks stopped pulling the markets higher and seasonal trends took over. Earnings season is almost over with only a few big names left to report. Inflation and the Fed will be the news moving forward as markets are still unsure what their next move is.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].