Tag: The Hedged Edge

01 Jul 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 23 – JULY 1

Corn reacted negatively to the Stocks and Acreage report this week despite there not being any surprises and the numbers coming out close to pre-report estimates. Planted acres came in at 89.921 million acres (89.861 million estimate) and June 1 stocks were 4.346 billion bushels (4.343 billion estimate). The bearish news is improving weather after the 4th of July with rains expected across most of the corn belt. The concern over the wet spring causing prevent plant acres in ND and MN does not appear to have come to fruition with high prices motivating farmers to get the crop in the ground. Trading resumes Tuesday morning after the long weekend so any change in weather or world news could lead to a volatile opening after another kick in the teeth on Friday.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a good week making solid gains before dipping after the report and then getting crushed today (Friday). The bean planted acres was 88.325 million acres (90.446 million estimate) and June 1 stocks was 971 million bushels (965 estimate). The acres number was surprising as it came in 2.121 million acres below pre-report estimates. While the favorable weather for corn is also favorable to beans, they have a different story than corn to follow. Chinese demand needs to return to the market but 2+ million acres of production is a lot to be off by. The inability for Soybeans to break out higher following the report shows that they still have a fight ahead of them and that outside market risks likely have an impact on prices. Friday’s trade hit beans hard and the long weekend holds uncertainties.

Via Barchart

Wheat moved lower on the week pre-report and continued lower after it with no surprises only to get crushed on Friday. All wheat planted acres were 47.092 million acres (47.017 million estimate) and 660 million bushels in June 1st stocks (655 million estimate). After a tough Friday, wheat has plenty of non US weather related news to follow and any developments over the 4th of July weekend will be seen on Tuesday.

Via Barchart

As you can see in the chart below cotton has had a rough 2 weeks. With demand expected to decrease with the possibility of a recession coming, this reaction is clear and puts fiber prices at the mercy of the economy’s future. The other side to this is that US production will likely be lower than expected with so much dryland in west Texas and other serious drought areas (see map below) expected to not produce a crop. Growers planted 12.5 million acres in 2022, up 11% from last year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets were relatively flat on the week after a few up and down days. The market headlines keep being “market rallies as fear of recession lessens” or “market falls as recession fears remain” so the market is still looking for guidance as it continues lower. July’s news will be similar to June with inflation and the Fed being the main drivers.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

24 Jun 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 9 – 23

Corn had a rough week along with the overall commodity selloff the past few days. While the weather forecast has become cooler it is still going to be hot, and a lack of rain remains across much of the corn belt for the next week with higher chances in the 2-week forecast.  Do not be mistaken – we are in a “weather market” where positions will change along with the forecasts.

Outside of weather, it has been the funds who have helped propel the move higher over the past year – naturally, when funds liquidate their large long position, you get a gut punch like we’ve seen this week.

With unknown weather, a potential recession looming, and fund profit taking the current market condition are flat out tough to speculate on and require the utmost discipline and focus on profit margin management.

The Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stocks report comes out next week followed by a 3-day weekend for the 4th of July.

Give us a call today to get your plan set for tomorrow (i.e next week!) 312-858-4049.

Via Barchart

Soybeans suffered like corn from the cooler forecast and long liquidation this week. Collapsing world veg oil prices added pressure with the forecast change. Chinese Covid lockdowns and continued political friction will be in and out of the news but will always spook the markets. Beans and corn will be weather sensitive going forward but have suffered from outside forces like potential recession and lockdowns as well. The planted acres and stocks report will be important next week as well as weather over the 3 day 4th of July weekend.

Via Barchart

Wheat suffered along with other commodities with indications that Ukraine may be able to export more wheat than originally expected (not sure if this will come to fruition as the destruction of ports and shipping paths is continuing). Russian production estimates have risen, adding to the questions about what will be produced in Russia and Ukraine to be exported. The losses in wheat in recent weeks is confusing as the US yields are not spectacular, war continuing in Ukraine, and India is still in a drought, none of these are bearish factors yet we have come well off the highs.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

It has been a bad past couple weeks for the equity markets as they fell lower following the Fed raising rates 75 points and lots of debate of a recession in the future. While the Fed tries to make up for late moves and inflation continues to affect the country it is important to look what has gotten us here. As companies are likely to lower future earnings expectations, it will be important for markets to figure out fair value after the last 2 years of staggering valuations.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

10 Jun 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 2 – 10

Corn had a good week with solid gains as there has still been no conclusive progress on an open trade corridor for Ukraine to export grain. The US weather outlook for late June remains hot and dry for many areas. While this is not too worrisome yet, if that pattern continues for the summer it could lead to the long-term weather problems the world supply does not need. The cash market remains hot with positive basis for corn pushing corn up over $8 in many areas in the corn belt. The USDA Report Friday did not include many surprises but had a reduction in old crop corn exports. This led to a rise in expected ending stocks for 22/23 to 1.400 billion bushels for the US. World supplies were risen as well on a bigger Ukraine crop expected (up 5.5 mmt from the May estimate).

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a good week with strong exports and higher bean oil prices. While there has not been much soybean specific news, the same supportive factors of the last few weeks remain. The high-pressure ridge that may move into the Midwest is providing support, like for corn, but whether that ends up happening will be a wait and see. The high crude prices will continue to help, and they may stick around for the summer as demand picks up. In Friday’s USDA report, Soybeans ending stocks were lowered to 280 million bushels for 22/23 for the US. World ending stocks were raised to 100.46 million tonnes, slightly higher than May.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had been trading sideways for the last couple weeks but took it on the chin Thursday and Friday. While the market tries to pick a direction to go, the inflation number on Friday did not help as it rose to 8.6%. Markets tumbled on Thursday as the ECB said it would end asset purchases and begin to raise interest rates, pushing global bond yields higher. Hopes were that inflation had peaked, that was not the case, and the market reacted as expected to a 8.6% inflation number and record low consumer sentiment.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

03 Jun 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 26 – JUNE 2

Corn had another tough week with a couple big down days before a quiet day on Thursday. The big news this week was the rumors of talks between Russia and Turkey to discuss a safe trade passage for Ukraine to export grain. While this would be a positive for the world supply, rumors are rumors until something comes to fruition and Russia supposedly would only let that happen if they were to get economic sanctions lifted. Along with this news, corn planting was 86% complete at the start of the week following the long weekend after a few weeks of much needed catch up after the slow start. This is close to the average as parts of North Dakota and Minnesota remain slow due to weather. Eyes will now turn to the weather for this summer while keeping an eye on any further Russia and Ukraine developments.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have not seen the move down that corn and wheat have the last couple of weeks. Demand for beans remains high across many areas with meal and oil prices moving higher too. 908 million pounds of soybean oil were used to make biofuels in March, the second highest monthly total on record. Exports remain good and with July trading at a 70-cent premium to August the demand has been strong and could be interesting to see if purchases begin for coming months. Soybean planting was 66% complete to start the week, right on the average for this time of year.

Via Barchart

Wheat fell this week on similar news to corn with the rumors of Ukraine being able to export grain. With Ukraine growing more wheat than expected, this will help the world supply if they are able to export some of it. Spring wheat planting was 73% complete to start the week, while this is well below the average the progress made was much needed. Wheat will keep an eye on planting to finish up in areas that dry out and keep an eye on Russia and Turkey discussions.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have had a good past few days continuing its move higher from the lows from a few weeks ago. The weaker than expected economic data may ease inflation and possibly keep the Fed from being too aggressive in tightening. While the Fed was slow to move on rates the debate about how fast they need to move higher from here continues.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

27 May 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 12 – 26

Corn has traded lower over the past couple of weeks as planting progress has sped up following a slow start to the planting season. While we knew the corn would get planted, the early delay was worrisome and continues to have the potential to lead to harvest yield loss. Despite the gains in many states, ND and MN are still wet and cool with no warmer weather in the forecast to help pull these areas into any form of normal pattern.

With the country wide and regional delays to planting, the latest USDA yield estimate of 177 bpa seems realistic vs the initial 181 bpa. That said, more progress will be made over the 3-day weekend as catch up is played leaving traders only guessing how the lates progress data will be reported come Tuesday. 3-day weekends tend to be unpredictable as the markets do not open until Monday night, so any weather event over the weekend followed by a shortened trading week will likely lead to continued volatility.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have bounced back the past couple of weeks as they have traded up and down since making contract highs in February. Diesel’s rally has helped beans as it increases the need for more vegetable oil in renewable diesels. Chinese demand has been quiet and their new deal with Brazil for corn could lead to friendlier trade elsewhere as well. Planting is slow but we are not late enough into the year yet to worry about yield loss, like we are with corn. More progress will be made over the long weekend and could see a volatile open Monday night as well.

Via Barchart

Crude Oil

Crude is back trading near its post invasion highs of the mid $110s while natural gas continues higher. The world energy market continues to trade higher while countries try to explore ways to ease the burden on their citizens. This problem will not be fixed anytime soon so we should expect higher prices in to the summer.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets saw a welcome rally this week amidst the continued bear market of the last few months. While this may just be a temporary bounce before the Fed reduces its balance sheet, it is nice to see some positive days in a row. Mixed earnings, interest rates, and the war in the Ukraine continue to dominate the story lines. Keep an eye on the big names as they will continue to decide which way the market goes.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

Via Barchart

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 May 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 28 – MAY 12

The May USDA report was mixed but the most bullish news out of it was lowering expected yield to 177 bu/acre from 181. This adjustment trumped the other numbers as US and world stocks were higher than expected. The USDA appears to think demand rationing is in the future but is also aware the late panted US crop will not achieve record yield.  The USDA did not change their estimates for Brazil’s safrinha crop, their estimates remain a few hundred million bushels over private estimates. Corn planting was seen as being 22% complete to start the week with more progress being made. The US is well behind its normal pace and there are still places that have yet to start, the longer planting drags out the lower that yield is expected to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled the last few weeks as it has fallen to the low $16s. The USDA report was relatively neutral with a mixed bag of numbers that offset each other. They kept the US yield estimates at 51.5 bu/acre as the slow planting pace has not gotten to the end of the soybean window yet. One important thing to note is the USDA’s acreage already had a large shift to beans from corn. If the wet areas do not dry in time for corn to get in so beans get planted instead, we could see an even larger bean vs corn gap in acreage. The slower corn gets planted the more eyes will turn to soybeans and could make for an interesting year.

Via Barchart

Wheat has seen a good rally over the past 2 weeks, lead by a big day after the USDA report. World wheat supplies are at record low stocks to use ratios and moving deeper into 2022. Replacing lost Ukrainian and Russian bushels is a challenge for the USDA balance sheets. World wheat stocks are at 991 million bushels below expectations from the May report in 2021. With the continued war in Ukraine and troubles with wheat crops all over the world, including here in the US, wheat has several bullish factors behind it heading into the summer.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

There really is not much to say as the markets continue lower with inflation posting 8.3% this week. The Fed raised rates last week another 50 points, this was expected, and the markets actually immediately responded favorably before continuing the loses of the last few months. Several rounds of earnings happened this week with few winners and Apple continues its fall as it falls below $150. Apple is always one to keep an eye on as it is no longer the most valuable company in the world. The S&P and NASDAQ are getting hit just as hard (NASDAQ the worst down over 30% from its record highs in November).

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

 

In this episode of the Hedged Edge we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50 year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

 

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

10 May 2022

The Tug of War on Fertilizer Prices —Are Prices Staying or Going with Dick Stiltz

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page from “The Clash” should we stay or should we go?! And, we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “What will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan.”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand…Should we stay or should we go…

Episode Quick Links:

https://www.prairielandfs.com/

https://twitter.com/PrairielandFS https://www.facebook.com/PrairielandFS/

IF you have additional questions, contact Dick at dstiltz@prlfs.com.

29 Apr 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 21 – 28

Corn continues to move higher as planting has gotten off to a slow start in the US and Brazil’s safrinha crop is facing drought conditions, shrinking their crop. The wet and cool forecasts remain into May for the north and eastern corn belt which will make it unlikely to see much planting progress in those areas. The rain will be welcome in the western corn belt that has been dry and making slow progress in planting, but the rain will be welcome for the soil even if it slows planting for a day or two. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to decimate their infrastructure as Russia destroys ports and has seized stored corn to sell as their own. China was a buyer of corn this week and will hopefully continue to show up on exports as demand from other buyers has slowed. Limits have been increased at the CBOT for some commodities and corn will now have a 50 cent limit starting May 1 from the current 35 cent limit.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a small dip this week after its nice run higher from the previous dip at the end of March. Soyoil prices continue their move higher pulling beans with it while meal struggles. Indonesia placed a palm oil ban on both refined and unrefined product. The slow start to planting will ultimately roll into affecting soybeans like corn but we aren’t at panic mode yet. The start to the year has been less than ideal when the world stocks need a great year. Beans daily trading limit will move up to $1.15 effective May 1st.

Via Barchart

Cotton

July cotton traded limit up (7 cents) on Thursday to set a new contract high at $1.4768. Export data from last week was better than the last few weeks. Cotton’s problem appears to be a lack of world supply mixed with (so far) not ideal growing conditions in Texas. Forecasts for rain in Texas are very welcome but will need to be widespread and a large amount to help the drought. (See drought map below)

Dow Jones

The Dow was down this week as volatility continues to be in the markets as earnings continue to come across with some large companies getting crushed and others posting solid numbers. Tech companies have had a good week after getting run over the past couple months. This may not be the bottom for tech but it is nice to see some good numbers and some support.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

RCM Ag Services put a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we jumped right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

08 Apr 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 31 – APRIL 8

A bullish USDA WASDE report on Friday did nothing to affect the markets; it appears that the report was met with little reaction. The U.S. ending stocks were unchanged while world ending stocks were raised due to larger Brazil corn crop estimates by 2 million tonnes. The weather in South America and the U.S. over the next month will be the main focus as it will be essential for U.S. corn to get off to a good start as far as world supply goes. The war in Ukraine continues, and as the ultimate damage and consequences are unknown, it is doubtful Ukraine will be able to produce/export what it was for a few years.

Via Barchart

Soybeans were trading higher into the report and continued that post report solidifying their gains for the week. The USDA had the U.S. ending stocks at 260 million bushels which were right on estimates going into the report, and world ending stocks at 89.58 million metric tonnes. World veg oil prices continue higher, pulling bean oil prices to new 2-week highs. This week’s gains have gotten back the losses from the acreage report last week.

Via Barchart

Wheat’s report numbers were neutral with no surprises. Wheat will gain on corn and beans strength as there is not much news outside of Ukraine and Russia to move it right now. With no end to the war seemingly coming soon, major questions will remain unanswered as world trade will be messed up for a long time. World trade with wheat will be what markets will keep an eye on as the cash market will give us a better idea of expected availability moving forward.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow was relatively flat on the week while tech struggled as the market is trying to position itself ahead of more Fed moves. It is unsure how many and by how much the hikes will be this year as inflation continues to be the main problem facing Americans. The market is hoping that the struggles of Q1 will not continue into Q2, but inflation is sticking around.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand heading into April compared to last year.

Podcast

RCM Ag Services put a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we jumped right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

01 Apr 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 24 – 31

A bullish USDA Prospective Plantings report for corn saw both old and new crop corn getting a boost on Thursday. The USDA sees corn-planted acres for all purposes in 2022 at 89.5 million acres, down 3.87 million from last year and well below the average trade estimate of 92 million. Several factors might have played into this number but going from 92 million acres at the USDA Ag Forum to this number a month later is very interesting. Input prices and supply chain woes likely played a major role in the USDA predicting more bean acres than corn as the cost per acre to raise corn will be very high this year with the risk of not receiving all inputs in time. On top of the fallout of the war in Ukraine, this lower number should see tightening on the world balance sheets even with a record yield this year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a bearish report as the USDA came out with 91 million planted acres in the US for 2022. This would be a record for planted acres and 4 percent higher than last year, with planted acreage being up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states. Fewer inputs are needed per acre to grow beans than corn played a major role in the shift in acres year to year. How the market trades in the next few days will be interesting to watch as 91 million is a lot of acres, but the world needs it, so will it actually be enough?

Via Barchart

Wheat remains vulnerable to Ukraine and Russia news while also figuring out its value in the world market. Wheat acres came in at 47.351 million, lower than the pre-report estimates — 2022 winter wheat planted area at 34.2 million acres and (23.7 million HRW, 6.89 million SRW, 3.62 WW) 11.2 million acres of spring wheat. China’s poor crop and the issues with the U.S. crop seem to be priced into the market possible, but for the time being, Russia’s war in Ukraine will be the market moving news.

Via Barchart

Cotton made another jump higher this week before falling following the report. Cotton acres came in at 12.2 million acres, up 9% from last year. Many growing areas have been dry this winter and could use a spring rain to help improve planting conditions. World demand is still present, so the US will have buyers if they can produce a crop. The old and new crops have been over $1 for several weeks now, making it easier to plant than when it was in the 50 cent range a couple of years ago.

Via Barchart

Crude continued its move lower this week with a couple of large intraday ranges. The Biden administration announced that it would release 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to help fight higher gas prices. The big dip came from rumors of progress in peace talks in Ukraine that seemed incorrect as the conflict continued. The Biden administration also wants to make companies with leases on federal land “use em or lose em” but that would take months to years to go from 0 production levels. When Democrats want to shift to EVs and other “green” energy, it is hard to see why companies invest capital when that party wants to get rid of their dependency as fast as possible.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity markets fell slightly during the week due to Thursday’s fall into the close of trading. The 2/10 yr treasury yield inversion has been the main talking point this week as it could be a signal of a recession. While it does not always mean there will be a recession, we have not had a recession without that happening, even though it is usually over a year later. Q1 ended this week after a few months of losses, volatility, confusion, and inflation, and it is hard to see it calming down anytime soon.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand heading into April compares to last year.

Podcast

RCM Ag Services put a unique spin on National Agriculture Day by going international. That’s right, we jumped right into international waters with Maria Dorsett from USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Services for an interesting discussion about linking U.S. agriculture to the rest of the world.

Each year, March 22 represents a special day to increase public awareness of the U.S.’s agricultural role in society, so why not take it one step further by bringing in a global component? As the world population soars, there’s an even greater demand for producing food, fiber, and renewable resources. That’s why we’re taking a deeper dive into the USDA’s trade finance programs, like the GSM-102, which supports sales of U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets and supports export growth in areas of the world that are seeing some of the fastest population growth.

So, jump aboard (no passport needed), as Maria discusses how U.S. companies use GSM-102, what the program features, and the benefits that it offers!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

What-It-Takes-To-Feed-The-W

Did you know that by 2050, the world is expected to feed almost 2 billion more people than we do today? As the global population continuously rises, a significant amount of food will need to be produced over the next 30 years.