Category: Agriculture

15 Jan 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 13

Corn finished the week strong following the January USDA report. The report had a mix of bullish and bearish news with the USDA raising the yield estimate to 173.3 bu/acre from 172.3 in November. At the same time they cut total production due to lowered harvested acreage while lowering US and world ending stocks. The USDA also lowered production estimates for South America by lowering Argentina yield 3 bu/acre and Brazil 1 bu/acre. Exports were also lowered as a bearish factor with lower usage. The news in the report was slightly bullish for corn and it needed it but there are still many factors around the world that can change. Argentina’s weather remains hot and dry for the next week and many private estimates believe the crop will continue to get lower.

Via Barchart

Soybeans participated in the post rally on bullish numbers from the USDA. The USDA lowered bean yield to 49.5 bu/acre, .7 bu/acre lower than November report. The lower yields and lower harvested acres lead to a lower US ending stocks of 210 million bushels. They also lowered Argentina’s bean yield by 4 bushels per acre and raised Brazil’s 1 bu/acre. Beans have been trading higher over the last couple of months and the report did not throw water on it. While any further rallies will be met with farmer selling, South American weather will be the main factor going forward.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The Dow rallied this week along with other indexes as the market has started off the year on a positive note. CPI came in at 6.5% continuing its trend lower but still well above where the Fed wants it, expect them to continue to raise rates. Recession fears remain with many analysts still expecting one this year in the US and in Europe. Ultimately the market is still looking for a direction as it tries to figure out what comes next.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

09 Jan 2023

The Leonard Lumber Report: The market continued its drift lower as the cash market was silent

Commentary: 

The market continued its drift lower as the cash market was silent. At this point I think you need to begin the process of determining value. March futures sit at $370. That is the lowest price seen since April of 2020. $370 is not low if you compare it to the last 50 years. It is low if you compare it with the last 5. So, the question today is whether the recession is going to be deep or mild? If you answer the recession question, then you also answered the value question.

A recession is slowed by infusing the system with capital. We have never had so much available capital in the marketplace in history. That money sitting there needs to be used. Is that enough to soften the recession? I don’t know. I’m guessing that the recession doesn’t need to be that deep, but the trickle-down funding process could keep it dragging on. That won’t kill the housing market. If the recession is going to be mild, then this industry needs a buy round. There hasn’t been a good buy since October. One is needed today just to get the players back in the game. It will be short and not cause much of a rebound but is needed. Buying wood at $330 or lower is a low-risk investment. It’s hard to believe the pushback. I’m not looking for a reversal in the trend. With supply and demand going in opposite directions the clean-up will take time.

Technical: 

The fundemental and technical picture is one in the same today. The RSI in March is at 34% at its contract low. That is not bullish. It keeps making new lows and not getting oversold. If you look at cash it also keeps trading lower and not finding any interest. While both are due a bounce, the bottom building process is just that a process. A good visual is if you draw a line from the high in Feb of 2010 at 327.50 straight accross till today. The market has some downside potiential and a hell of a lot of upside. The shortside of the trade is difficult from now on. Tell that to the funds.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

02 Jan 2023

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 16 – 30

Corn made gains over the last two weeks with the continued escalation of bombing in Ukraine and more dry weather in Argentina. Exports remain uninspiring as the year comes to a close. China announced they will reduce some travel restrictions while covid infections continue to cause problems and continued lockdowns. Brazil’s expected record crops could offset some of Argentina’s losses but what extent will be determined in the next 2 months. The news has been slower as we get to the end of the year but the continuation and escalation of the war along with the other factors can continue.

Via Barchart

Soybeans participated in the market rally over the last couple weeks making solid gains back over $15. The Argentinian crop is rated as just 10% good to excellent, down from 12% the previous week. Brazil’s weather has been quite favorable to their bean crop which is much larger than Argentina’s. While exports remain lackluster, once Brazil begins to harvest they will become worse. The rally into the end of the year was very welcome and the start of 2023 will set the tone into the spring.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The Dow has been flat the last couple weeks while the NAQDAQ and S&P 500 stocks saw losses. The continued rate hikes into 2023 along with recession fears continue to weigh on the market as investors look for answers along with some tax loss harvesting to end the year. 2022 was not a great year for the markets as a whole and 2023 will sure to hold its own surprises.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

19 Dec 2022

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The liquidity issue in the marketplace seems to be getting worse not better

Weekly Lumber Recap 

12/18/22

Happy Holidays!!

The liquidity issue in the marketplace seems to be getting worse not better. At this point in the cycle, we should start to see a few green shoots. None were to be found last week as futures hit a new low on Friday. The outside markets are having a bigger than normal effect on our trade. Mostly due to the lack of news here. I’m confident that overall production on January 1st. will be less than the amount produced December 1st. The market seems to agree but throws in the fact that there will also be less homes starting on January 1 than started on December 1. The question becomes of how long the drifting lower will remain in place.

Look at the chart below. It has a Fibonacci measurement from the contract low during covid to the highs in 2021. Look to the left and 2019. The sideways price channel for the year was developed with an average of 1.29 starts. If that is the number, we are looking for 2023 then a sideways trade for a year could be expected. I’m not sure if that will develop but it does look like the current futures market wants to test that theory.  I’m in the camp that next year will be somewhat subdued, but at a higher level. Next week will be more of the same unless the short funds start to cover. It hasn’t shown up yet so that is even a limited wish.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

16 Dec 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 7 – 16

Corn had a good week making gains on mixed news across the world. The war in Ukraine has picked back up with more bombing and aggression from Russia after a “quiet” few weeks. Exports were better this week as we head into the end of the year well behind the expected pace. Weather in Brazil remains good in most areas while Argentina forecast is becoming wetter. Markets will likely remain cooled through the holidays unless there is any unexpected news (flooding rains, further escalation in Ukraine, etc.) that is not already priced in.

Via Barchart

Soybeans were relatively flat this week with a mix of up and down days. We are back up trading at the top of the range we have seen since July. Whether it fails at this level again or can move higher may require some surprise news to the market as exports were good, but the market seemed to shrug off. With South America expected to produce a record crop and those beans hitting the world market in a little over a month, finding buyers for US beans could become challenging. Like corn, news may be quiet heading into the end of the year and holidays.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The markets were down this week following a good amount of volatility following the Fed’s announcement of a 50-point hike in rates with comments indicating there will be more raises in the future and could be held higher for longer. CPI came in better than expected but still hot at 7.1%. While we are 2% lower than the highs, we still have a long way to go to hit the target of 2-3% which the Fed will continue to work towards.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

12 Dec 2022

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: What a difference a year makes

Weekly Lumber Recap 

12/11/22

 

What a difference a year makes. This week 12 months ago saw a $170 trading range with a high of $1069. Last week we saw a $50 trading range and a high of $436. Last year the market was in a full panic. Today it is not. The reason I bring this up is that it has been one hell of a run and now we are suffering from the hangover. No one can argue that we are in full stop mode that has pushed prices to the lowest level since the covid shutdown. Is it sustainable? Probably not. Will it go lower probably. All that said, this market is going to start working itself out of this spiral lower trading. What are those indicators?

This market has sold off sharply because of two issues. The first is the drastic slowdown in construction on the horizon. The other is an industry with no appetite for inventory. The first is a known value. The estimates of a 30% reduction in building are getting announced almost daily from builders large and small. The distribution side of the industry is in for some real pain and is drastically trying to curb supply. That brings us to the other issue and that is the fact that everyone is curbing inventories. Everyone is off at least 30% of volume by now. That is a formula for the downward spiral to end. That does not indicate a turn but shows a limited downside from here. If you add in the technical read, we get the same conclusion.

The weekly outlook shows a pattern of limited downside. The futures market has traded between the moving averages and the lower band since June of 2021. Today the spread between the lower band and the averages is $100. That spread was over $300 for almost 2 years. The lower band sits at 374. The averages sit around 473. The market could take the 373 band out, but history tells us that it will recover. That band will lower but it isn’t indicating that today. This pattern also shows us how much resistance there is at the 473 level.

To sum it up the call is for a bottoming action followed by a sideway trade. Most of our headwinds are not supply and demand related anymore. They are driven by outside economic issues. This week’s Fed announcement could upset our market, but regardless we have started the process to find equilibrium. The lack of the roll has been surprising.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

08 Dec 2022

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 7

December has not been good to corn as we started the month with a slide lower into the $6.40s. There has not been any major news change with a good start for corn in Brazil, China lockdowns, and the war in Ukraine continuing to hold the headlines. While weekly exports have been good but uninspiring, the weakness in the USD should help US ag exports be competitive in the coming months before the South American harvest. The humanitarian corridor has continued to work as ships leave Ukraine, but as always this is something to keep an eye on for any bad developments. Russia is expected to resume ammonia exports soon, which would help keep input costs for 2023 from getting much higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice improvement with their slow march higher from the beginning of October. The EPA came out with lower-than-expected biofuel mandates sending soybean and other world veg oil prices lower while meal has taken off higher. Soybeans hit their highest price since mid-September this week with buyers coming back in the market with a weakening USD. South Americas start has been good enough to where the market expects them to produce another record crop but there is still a long way to go. Right now, there does not appear to be much higher of an upside than the low $15 range in the near term, but if South America has weather problems, that could be the catalyst to move higher or if weather remains good the next move lower.

Via Barchart

Crude Oil

Crude has had an interesting second half of the year following its peak in June. While it has traded between $80-90/barrel most of that time, this recent dip below $75 shows there is a lot of uncertainty as we head into winter. The sanctions on Russian oil by capping it at $60 goes into effect this week while many investors do not expect to see it having a major impact immediately. With Russian oil already trading below the $60 and their breakeven closer to $40 it does not appear this will dampen exports for them with India and China continuing to buy. Europe is still struggling with energy as the war in Ukraine continues. Further guidance from the UN or another shock to the market (China loosening Covid restrictions) could send Crude back higher to its recent trading range.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had a great November rallying over 10% but have gotten off to a sluggish start in December. While data comes in still pointing to a strong economy and job numbers the ball is in the Fed’s court on what to do with rates. It is expected that there will continue to be rate hikes into 2023 with the Fed potentially keeping rates higher for longer than originally anticipated but slowing the rate at which they raise them. Some of the largest companies in the world have either laid off workers or frozen hiring as many questions remain for next year.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

05 Dec 2022

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: IF YOU HAVE BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH YOU HAVE SEEN TIMES WHEN THERE IS NO MARKET

Weekly Lumber Recap 

12/4/22

If you have been around long enough you have seen times when there is no market. It was always caused by some event. This time the focal point is on the free money causing an overbuilt/overpriced housing sector. The market now has to digest the run up. Commodities in general will have extended swings as traders are either 100% in or totally out. The issue today is that the buyside continues to add cheap product to the pile for the first quarter. This could be a Peter and Paul moment. We are going into a critical week for the market. There needs to be a shift in interest level going into the end of the year. We shall see.

I talked about the futures market starting with a 3 handle back in late July. It took over 4 months to get there. Except for a few corrections the futures market has traded sideways. Only when the cash market accelerated down did futures finally sell off. Futures were building the bottom end of the range. Today they are just following an unhinged cash market. My point being that futures is looking at the low $400 as a tradable level. That is not a buy recommendation, just a value area. I have been around too long to think the mills will find a bottom anytime soon. Firms today really believe that all this will end soon, and things will be back to normal. There is little planning going on to limit exposure. It will take time.

The technical picture could be friend or foe. On the friendly side the whole momentum complex has come together. Rarely has a market continued its trend without some type of correction. With the RSI at 29% there may be more downside but with the pattern and going into the holidays I expect a little pop. Now on the foe side the Bollinger bands are moving sideways but January futures closed under the lower band. Futures tend to bounce right back into the band area. If futures continue down, it will take time and distance for the bands to catch up. Doing the math today that level would be $307.80. There is the shock.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

28 Nov 2022

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: AT THIS POINT IT’S TIME TO KEEP IT SIMPLE

Weekly Lumber Recap 

11/27/22

At this point it’s time to keep it simple. I remember the quote from Ronald Reagan about the cold war. He said, “let’s keep it simple. We win they lose.” Today we don’t have a road map. We don’t have historical data. All we have is the market in front of us. The data indicates a market headed for $300 while the real fear is it goes up $300. Both are a reality. Without a supply disruption the market is geared for a slow erosion with light rallies in between. Any signs of fear from the buyside and the mills will be off the market again.

Most would agree that housing is in a created recession. That is a recession caused by a steep increase in prices. Whether those price increases were cost related or not, it has the same effect at the end of the day. The only question is how deep of a recession the US go into. A layoff panic will drag housing into a deeper recession. A recession with minimal layoffs will allow the market to find a level and build off of it. The bad news it may take until the 2nd quarter to see how bad it could be.

Today the futures market is at a standstill. It is drifting lower with the cash market. The January futures contract has had a $38 trading range in November so far. There are three days left but nevertheless that is the smallest range in years. All the pressure in futures comes from the electronic trade made up of either the algo or the funds. The industry has pared its inventory to a level that hedging is not necessary. That is friendly. Any disruption in supply sets off the panic beginning with the funds covering shorts. That is where the big run-up would come from.

From a technical standpoint the market is close to a move. The Bollinger bands are as tight as we have seen in months. The sideways trade has pushed the market into an area calling for a breakout. A strike will set things off to the upside. A .75 raise in December will probably cause the bottom to drop out. In either case the futures market wants to trend. I’m still a fan of mitigating upside risk. The downside is easy.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

21 Nov 2022

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: With this abrupt pause in our industry it may be a good time to do a review of 2022 and projections for 2023

Weekly Lumber Recap 

11/20/22

With this abrupt pause in our industry it may be a good time to do a review of 2022 and projections for 2023. The reason for an early start is that any movement from here will be the result of first quarter planning. There are three focus areas that will drive prices. The first is the decline in demand and new forward guidance. Next is the cost of production and lastly is the equilibrium equation. Let’s go last to first.

I now call the equilibrium equation a numerical defense. The focus in the last decade was just how underbuilt the housing industry had become. I call it a numerical defense because we continue to use an old formula to get this rather high number. It is based on a husband, wife, two kids and a dog. That isn’t the typical household today, so the underbuilt number is high. In the mid 2000’s we took starts up to 1.6 because of spec buying. If fell to 500 once the spec homes were empty and for sale. This recent hysterical run was fueled by 401K borrowing or buying among other factors. The point I am making is that at 7% mortgages and a 385K starter we are overbuilt.

Next is the cost of production. Does anyone think it could be in the $400’s? Nope. We are all looking at a $600 number. I know I am and can defend that number. That is for 2×4 2&B spruce. I think the entire basket of products may just be cheaper in some respects than we think. A good example is SYP. 10 years ago, that would not play into the mix as much as it does today. The cost of production is a non-defined factor in pricing today. It will be dragged into it eventually, but for today a mill trading spruce under $400 speaks volumes.

Finally, another difficult statistic to follow is demand and construction. We are seeing the expected push in building for yearend. The builders are getting it done while also looking for at least a 30% drop in construction for the first half of the year. This strategy to build and then abruptly stop seems counter intuitive. They are increasing available homes in a falling demand market. What this will do is extend the period of easing until the excesses are cleaned up. It isn’t an economic strategy but more of an accounting move. My first thought is to be careful of the home builder stocks in the short run.

The expectation from here is to look for the shock to the system that turns the market. Until the market experiences it the trade will be one of floating into a buy round that lasts for three days or two weeks. In either case new lows can follow. This market remarkably looks like the lumber market of old. Can that be possible?

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636