RCM Ag Services

Category: Wheat

12 Sep 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 26 – SEPTEMBER 12

Corn has gotten back above $4.00 in a struggling market that needs good news to propel it back to the mid $4s. The USDA raised US corn yield to 183.6 bu/ac up from 183.1 bu/ac in last month’s report. In the USDA’s eyes the crop is getting bigger as struggling areas will be more than made up for by the best areas across the corn belt. Despite the higher US yield numbers, the corn trade following the report was welcome to see as it did not move much lower on larger numbers. If corn can bounce off or hold this $4 level then we can probably expect it to hang around here as planting gets rolling until we know what is actually in the field and if the numbers are closer to 180 or 183.6.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice 50+ cent rally off recent lows with dryness in areas causing a little concern with pod fill and some pickup in demand. The USDA kept yield the same at 53.2 bu/ac as they agree with Pro Farmer tour that a massive crop is out there. Like corn, this recent bounce off lows is encouraging but may setup a range bound trade until harvest gets rolling and we have a better idea on the true yield. The USDA did slightly lower US ending stocks in both 23/24 and 24/25. Continued exports and any issues to South American planting are needed to drive beans higher in the current market.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster lately with the tech/semiconductor trade having quite a bit of volatility while some rotation occurs with the Fed rate cuts expected to begin this month.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate this month

Wheat

  • Wheat has been the one positive market lately, hitting new 2-month highs. The war in Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate and the market has responded accordingly. The USDA did not make any major changes in the report.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

26 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 26

Corn’s continued weakness following the August USDA report. Pro Farmer completed their crop tour last week and see the US yield being 181.1 bu/ac and a total 14.979-billion-bushel production. With another record crop expected this year, the market is continuing lower as plenty of 2023 corn remains in storage needing to be moved before this year’s harvest gets underway. The end of month heat is not expected to do much damage to the corn crop, but this crop is not done yet and still needs some more rain to get to the finish line. While demand is improving in the commodity space with a weaker USD, the large supply is still driving prices lower for the time being. There is not any major news to keep an eye on coming up except export and weather news.

Via Barchart

Pro Farmer found a massive crop in their tour last week estimating the 2024 US bean crop at 54.9 bu/ac(!!) and 4.74-billion-bushel total production. This soybean yield would easily be a record and would justify the collapse in bean prices seen this year. The current heat will likely stress the crop a bit, making that big a yield unlikely, however we should still expect to see a record crop, like corn. Soybeans need some good news in the form of demand whether that be from exports or the sustainable fuel market to get this thing turned around without production concerns in South America.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rallied back to recent highs after a small correction with the Yen carry unwind and some market broadening out of tech. With earnings season coming to an end markets will trade on economic data and any election surprises after Nvidia this week.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Fed chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole last week and set up for the Fed to begin cutting rates next month.
  • The Canadian rail strike started and seemingly ended quickly with the government stepping in and saying that arbitration will decide negotiations.
  • Wheat’s summer trend lower from the $7.59 high looks to continue as it is not getting any help from other commodities to pull it up.

Drought Monitor

  

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

14 Jun 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 31 – JUNE 14

Corn’s small 18 cent rally off recent lows for new crop corn has been very welcome after 6 down days in a 7-day period to end May and start June. This week’s USDA Report was a non-event with the USDA making no changes to South Americas production from last month despite the trade expecting production well below the USDA’s estimate of 175 mmt (171.82 estimated). CONAB released their estimates on Thursday, increasing their estimates for Brazil’s corn crop but still 310 million bushels below what the USDA is saying. The heat over the next couple of weeks is not expected to be a major problem but if this level of heat with a lack of rain goes into July the markets would take notice and begin to worry a bit.

Via Barchart

Beans are lower over the last 2 weeks with them settling into a flat trade this week. The USDA report was uneventful despite the USDA cutting another 1 mmt from Brazil’s bean crop. US exports were revised lower and ending stocks rose as the slow pace of exports continued. With no major surprises and no major weather/production issues yet there is not much bullish news outside of CONAB’s Brazil production estimate which is 207 million bushels below this week’s USDA update.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The S&P 500 and NASQDAQ continue to move higher setting new all-time highs as several large tech companies beat on earnings. The AI movement is continuing its dominance, but some other areas are starting to find strength as funds are forced to reposition.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The cotton market continues lower as there is nothing bullish in the news cycle for it other than the potential for up to 25 named hurricanes this year.
  • Wheat’s roller coaster ride continues with potential for lower Black Sea production still a possibility after the $1.50+ rally follows by a $1 fall with 10 down days in a row.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

13 May 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10

Corn has seen a strong rally over the last couple of weeks as planting is slightly delayed in parts of the US and funds seem to have changed their tone a bit. Last week’s USDA Report did not have any earth-shattering news but did provide some good news for the markets. US corn stocks were lower than estimates heading into the report along with world stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25. The production outlook for this year, 181 bu/ac, continues to show how the advances in agronomic practices and seed genetics continue to grow. All of these carryout and stocks numbers are based on those production estimates so if we begin to see weather issues or problems at the end of planting, we could continue to see revisions to the downside, and vice versa with great weather and conditions.

Via Barchart

Beans had a rough week after a strong start to May. The USDA Report leaned bearish as the South American production continues to expand for the upcoming year. The USDA is slowly trimming Brazil’s bean crop but is still above CONAB’s estimates by a bout 300 million bushels. The recent flooding in southern Brazil will force their hand to lower their expectations but the CONAB estimates on losses will be closely watched. Another promising development in the report was the expectation of record imports and usage in China. While much of this is expected to be met by Brazil and issues with their production will still need to be met.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rebounded over the last couple weeks with earnings season going on. The feeling on Fed rate cuts keeps pushing them back with one not expected until the fall and at least one fed chair thinking we may not get one this year as inflation remains sticky. Rates will remain data dependent but the feeling of higher for longer continues to seem more likely.

Via Barchart

Cotton

  • Cotton has fallen well off the February and March highs as the lack of demand in the global market mixed with funds exiting their long positions has beaten down the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat

  • Wheat’s recent rallies are welcome after struggling to find much positive movement in the market to start the year. Frost damage to Russia’s wheat crop and a dry pattern in the Black Sea has been the recent mover as the USDA Report had some mixed numbers. Smaller than expected US stocks, 24/25 world stocks and total production with higher than expected world wheat stocks for 23/24.

Other News

  • Conflict continues between Israel and Palestine as a ceasefire has been negotiated on many sides, but nothing has been agreed to yet.
  • Major flooding across southern Brazil has killed thousands of livestock and will have an impact on their crop but the extent of which is not known yet

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

08 Apr 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 8 – APRIL 8

Corn has traded in about a 20 cent range the last month spending much of its time in July corn between $4.40 and $4.60. The USDA acreage intention report gave the markets an initial bullish reaction but struggled to follow through past the report as prices have fallen back from the post report highs. Corn acreage for 2024 came in at 90.036 million acres (91.776 estimate) which was a surprise to the market. The trade appears to believe that the acreage number is likely higher as it has given some of the gains back quickly. While lower prices and high input costs are likely to affect farmer’s decisions, if the weather this April and May is friendly to planting it will be hard for farmers to leave acreage on the table. South America harvest in Brazil and Argentina is in line or slightly behind average.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have fallen from their recent highs as the USDA Report did not provide the market with any actionable news. The USDA came in at 86.510 million acres (86.530 estimate), because the acres were so close to the estimate the report was not a big mover for the bean market. The market has slowly traded lower since the report as the next market mover will be the April USDA and April CONAB Reports this week. The more information we can get on South America’s harvest the clearer the picture will become as the discrepancies between the USDA and CONAB still have the markets confused.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have pulled back from recent highs with the pullback in some tech names but the market and economy are still strong as inflation remains sticky and the Fed trying to decide when, or if, to cut rates this year.

Via Barchart

 

Other News

  • US wheat acres will be lower than last year. Winter wheat plantings shrunk from the estimate in January, but spring wheat will be slightly higher than last year.
  • The transmission of bird flu in cattle in several states this week drove cattle prices lower and is a development to keep an eye on.

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

16 Jan 2024
Agriculture, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks Overview

USDA Final 2023 Yield and Stocks

Overview

January 12, 2024

First Glance:

Corn        

USDA Yield:   177.3 BPA (174.9 Estimate – 174.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 15.342 BBU (15.226 Estimate – 15.234 Nov)

Harvested Area:  86.513 MA (87.036 Estimate – 87.096 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks: 2.162 BBU (2.111 Estimate – 2.131 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 325.2 MMT (312.9 Estimate – 315.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 182 MMT (180 Estimate – 184 Nov)

Beans      

USDA Yield:   50.6 BPA (49.9 Estimate – 49.9 Nov)

Total Crop: 4.165 BBU (4.134 Estimate – 4.129 Nov)

Harvested Area:  82.356 (82.757 Estimate – 82.791 Nov)

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  280 MBU (245 Estimate – 245 Nov)

23/24 World Stocks: 114.6 MMT (111.9 Estimate – 114.2 Nov)

Brazil/ARG Crop: 212.0 MMT (204.9 Estimate – 209 Nov)

Wheat     

23/24 US Ending Stocks:  648 MBU (659 Estimate – 659 Nov)

Winter Wheat Seedings: 34.425 MA (35.786 Estimate – 36.699 LY)

23/24 World Stocks: 260.0 MMT (258.3 Estimate – 258.2 Nov)

 

The USDA found larger than expected totals in almost every category, increasing corn yield 2.4 bpa over the November estimate to 177.3 bpa. This is both a record yield and record total crop of 15.342 billion bushels. Bean yield was also raised .7 bpa to 50.6 and a total crop of 4.165 bbu. Both corn and bean harvested acres were slightly trimmed, the only bullish news in the report.

Higher yields were pushed through to higher ending stocks with US corn carryover raised to 2.162 bbu (+31 mbu from Nov) and 803 mbu above last year’s stocks. Beans had a similar fate with stocks set at 280 mbu, up 35 mbu from November but only 16 mbu above last year. Wheat stocks were slightly smaller than expected at 648 mbu but still up 78 mbu from 22/23.

Despite the rough start to Brazil’s growing season in their northern regions, Brazil’s bean and corn crops were not cut as much as expected. The weather has improved hurting the bullish narrative of a bad year for Brazil but the expanded acreage will also help offset any damage done earlier in the year.

There has not been any good news lately and prices reflect that. In June there was concern over the US crop with corn a $6.25 and beans at $14, now today has made new contract and multi-year lows in corn, soybeans and wheat.

16 Oct 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA OCTOBER CROP REPORT UPDATE

                     

                        2023 Yield Estimate:  173.0 BPA (173.5 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Corn Stocks:  2.111 BBU (2.138 BBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Corn Stocks:  312.4 MMT (313.05 MMT Estimate) 

  • The USDA lowered US corn yield 0.5 bu/ac which is in line with what we have been hearing from farmers in the field with many areas having great yields but the July heat and dryness did too much damage in other areas. The USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels while also revising beginning stocks down 91 million bushels.

 

                       2023 Yield Estimate:  49.6 BPA (49.9 BPA Estimate)

                        23/24 US Bean Stocks:  220 MBU (233 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Bean Stocks:  115.62 MMT (119.71 MMT Estimate)

  • The bean numbers were lowered as well with the USDA bringing yield down 0.5 bu/acre. The markets responded favorably to this while the USDA raised beginning stocks, lowered exports, and kept ending stocks the same at 220 million bushels. The drop in bean production was slightly offset by the lowered exports and higher crush.

 

                        23/24 US Wheat Stocks:  670 MBU (647 MBU Estimate)

                        23/24 World Wheat Stocks:  258.13 MMT (258.38 MMT Estimate)

  • The world wheat picture is still clouded by conflict between Russia and Ukraine but the USDA lowered world ending stocks while raising US ending stocks. The Australian wheat crop was lowered 1.5 mmt.

 

Overview:

The USDA gave bulls some life after a sideways trade in corn and lower bean trade the last 2 months. As harvest continues to roll the picture will become clearer but the record low levels on the Mississippi River are being monitored and could lead to the same problems last time this happened with bottlenecks in the export space. As the war in Ukraine continues, war in Israel (a US ally) and the continued tensions between China and Taiwan, the world geopolitical climate is tense and could have ripple effects in world trade.   

December 2023 Corn

November 2023 Beans

December 2023 Wheat

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

USDA September Quarterly Stocks Report Overview

First Glance:

Overview:

The Quarterly Stocks report added to the recent misery with larger than expected bean and wheat stocks while corn stocks were below expectations. With minimal adjustments to the 2022 final numbers, the market was already on the defensive in early trade as a brutal combination of week, month and quarter end collide with the probable US government shutdown to push all of the bulls out of the picture. The charts look terrible for beans and wheat as beans have now moved into a bearish posture after the summer strength while corn continues to grind in the $4.70-$4.90 range. The bottom line is that the USDA took away part of the only potentially bullish story in beans while reminding everyone that the world grain markets are well supplied after Brazil and Russia’s record crops and their willingness to be the world’s cheapest source of corn and wheat.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

04 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 20 – AUGUST 4

As quickly as corn rallied to get back over $5.50, the rains and favorable forecasts for August led it back below $5 just as quickly. The rains in late July provided much needed moisture over much of the corn belt, but as you can see in the drought charts below, varying levels of drought conditions remain. The forecast has shifted drier for August but after a record hot July, August is forecasted to be cooler. Reports of how much damage the first half of summer did to this crop are all over the place, which usually means it is somewhere in the middle. A 180+ yield is probably off the table, but a 172 yield seems to be just as unlikely unless the forecasts change to hot and dry for a long stretch soon. Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian ports in Odesa and the Danube River continue as the markets seem to shrug off any new damage. Over the weekend any forecast changes, new developments in Ukraine or world news will determine what the trade does to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have a similar story to corn this week but were able to avoid the late June collapse that corn saw thanks to the low acreage number. StoneX estimate for bean yield this week was 50.5 bu/ac which would be a supportive number for beans, especially if the acreage number is accurate. China has begun showing up as frequent buyers in export reports helping the demand story that was questionable on world economic worries not too long ago. The lack of bullish news is good news for the bears as no news markets rarely tend to move higher. Weather in August will be important for this crop and next week’s USDA report will give us more information on US production.

Via Barchart

Recent News

Click HERE to listen to RCM Ag Services’ Jody Lawrence join AgriTalk a couple weeks ago to discuss the current market.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and beans lower for similar reasons. The markets have shrugged off Russian aggression of late but will be watching over the weekend for any escalation.

Equity Markets

The equity markets suffered losses this week with a big down day on Wednesday when Fitch downgraded US debt to AA+ and earnings continue to roll in. The job market seems to be moderating as hiring was slightly weaker than the previous month. The markets are looking for numbers that will keep the economy and markets going while also giving the Fed the signal to stop raising rates. This is a fine line that can feel like walking on eggshells with a long-predicted recession still the worry of most investors.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

25 Jul 2023
Agriculture, Cash Basis, Corn, Grain, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Listen: Jody Lawrence recently joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk to discuss current markets

Recently RCM Ag Services’ director of research, Jody Lawrence, jumped on “AgriTalk with Chip Flory” after they both spoke at an event in Memphis for Helena Agribusiness. During the discussion Jody and Chip dive into the recent events in the commodities space hitting several topics including:

  • The war in Ukraine continuing to impact the world grain supply. The suspension of the export corridor and escalation of the war and its impact on markets.
  • Drought conditions in the US at the start of the year damaged the crop in many areas but how much? Is 177.5 bpa still too high?
  • The recent USDA Report numbers and did 94 million acres of corn really get planted?
  • Balance Sheets and the disconnect between them and what the cash market and basis tells us
  • And More

The audio is below to listen to parts of their discussion and get more insight into their thoughts on what to expect moving forward.

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-1

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-2

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

Disclaimer

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