RCM Ag Services

Category: Wheat

02 Sep 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 29

Corn has rallied off the post USDA report lows with a large up day on Friday to end the week. Pro Farmer Tour wrapped up their crop tour and has an average US corn yield of 182.7 bu/ac which would still be a record on top of the added acreage, but well below the 188.8 the USDA came out with. The two sides from the USDA’s report is that they likely won’t come out with a higher yield again with some small weather issues developing, but if they keep it high and make another big correction in January saying the crop wasn’t as big as they thought it could cost the farm community billions. The weather has cooled off for much of the country but the lack of rain for extended periods may be a problem in the home stretch.

Via Barchart

The Pro Farmer Tour found a bean crop more along the lines of what the USDA had coming in with a 53 bu/ac estimate vs the USDA’s 53.6 bu/ac. Beans biggest problem right now has been lack of rain for pod fill but a few well timed rains down the stretch could lead to a massive crop. China really needs to show up as a buyer for beans to leg higher but they can get all they want from South America right now even though they are paying a premium to get them vs US beans. The funds have a neutral position on the market as they wait for news that could send the market any direction other outside of the $10 – $10.50 range it has been trading in the majority of the last 6 months. China still remains a cloud over the market with the Trump administration needing to get Ag purchase commitments whenever they work out a trade deal in the coming months.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to claw higher amidst pullbacks as earnings wrap up and AI and tech still drive the market direction. The Fed is expected to cut rates in September while the Trump administration’s attack on the Fed’s independence continues with Lisa Cook in its crosshairs currently.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • ADM plans to close a soy protein plant in Bushnell, IL.
  • Brazil’s investigation into the Soy Moratorium (curbs Amazon deforestation) could threaten sustainable soy sourcing, with potential ripple effects in the global supply chain.
  • Wheat has been relatively flat the last couple weeks.
  • Cotton continues to trade sideways waiting on demand to pick up.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

12 Aug 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUG 4 – AUG 12 USDA REPORT

188.8 bu/acre… Hard to find a silver lining in the report for corn as the USDA ripped the band-aid off from the start instead of slow playing it. The average trade guess was 184-185 bu/ac which led to a big selloff seeing new contract lows. On top of the big yield number the USDA took the FSA planted acreage data and added 3 million acres in planted corn. The extra yield and acres could add nearly an extra 1 billion bushels of corn to the US and world ending stocks. The report did nothing to help the direction corn has been trading.

Via Barchart

The bean yield was also above pre-report estimates, coming in at 53.6 bu/acre. Prices were higher though following the 3 million acre planted acreage cut and total production cut by 90 million bushels. The market was caught off guard by the 3 million acre shift as evidenced in the opposite price reaction to the report numbers. The bean rally will give farmers a chance to catch up on sales but it will also motivate more acres to be planted in South America on stronger prices.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to perform well as AI and tech companies are still the major movers. Nvidia and Microsoft are now a combined 15+% of the S&P 500 index, causing some to worry about concentration, but luckily they are performing well so right now a rising tide raises all boats (money in S&P ETFs).

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat was in line with re-report estimates and had no major surprises. The weakness in corn will continue to weigh on wheat however.
  • Cotton saw a boost post report after the USDA lowered planted and harvested acres. Production was trimmed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

04 Aug 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 18 – AUGUST 4

Corn prices have drifted lower since Mid-July with no major weather issues and no major trade deal news. The corn crop ratings remain strong with about 73% of the US crop rated good/excellent and slking and dough formation ahead of average. Exports have slowed and funds have kept their short position about even last week. With the recent heat dissipating giving way to a cooler week, this crop has not been made yet but has not faced any prolonged growth challenges which continues to fuel the estimates into the 184-185 bu/acre. While this will be an impressive crop, from talking to growers across the country there are trouble spots due to disease and timing of rains which would help us get back to the low 180s which would give the market a bump. The market has been limping lower and will likely continue until something in the news cycle changes.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled lately as there has not been any news to boost the market. Exports this week were better but until China shows up as a buyer the demand for US beans is struggling on the global market. South America had a strong crop giving China more supply to buy so China may not show up until they have to unless prices fall enough to make them step in. Crop ratings remain strong, but the next month of rain will be important for pod filling and to get the crop across the finish line.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to reach new highs before a sizeable pullback to end last week with the news of Trump firing the head of the BLS. AI and tech names continue to lead the way. Magnificent 7 stocks have had mixed reactions to earnings but nobody is sounding the alarm yet about tariffs as guidance remains steady.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat has limped lower with corn and beans but saw good exports this week amid Ukraine’s sluggish exports.
  • The USD has strengthened in the last week but is still well below its year high. Historically this would have been supportive of agriculture exports but there are other factors in play this year.
  • The August WASDE report should provide some clarity and at least provide some new news for the market to digest and trade on for a bit.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

30 Jun 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 13 – 30

Last week was rough for commodities as corn dropped to make new contract lows in Dec ’25. The charts do not look good for corn and there is no good news to help either. There are no major weather concerns and South America is producing another record crop allowing for ample ending stocks in the world. The USDA June 30th Planted Acreage Report stated that corn has 95.203 million planted acres. This number is neutral to bearish as the market was expecting a slightly higher number but anything 95+ with the weather to this point in the year looks for a huge crop. The bears have the momentum right now but there are some trouble areas and a long summer ahead to bring the bulls some help.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gave back the recent gains as well last week before the report on June 30th. Beans will likely continue to trade in the range they have been until we receive news to direct the market either on the trade agreement side or weather. The Planted Acres report had 83.38 million acres, slightly below expectations. The tax bill going through congress right now may give beans some help by getting rid of a 45z tax credit loophole but until this thing passes everything is on the table to get cut from it. Weather is good for the next 2 weeks so the market needs positive news from a US and China trade deal to give it a boost.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Markets set new highs after another V shape recovery following the liberation day tariff dip. Several tech stocks have led the way outside of the Magnificent 7 as AI continues to dominate headlines with spending continuing and companies talking about how it can help improve their margins.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in higher than expected at 10.12 million acres. Cotton has been stuck below 70 cents/lb for a while and while the acreage number came in higher than expected we know there are issues with the crop and a lot of abandonment.
  • Wheat, like corn and beans, yawned at the report as the numbers were close to the average estimate with no major changes. After a mid June rally, the weakness to end the month was disappointing dropping 50 cents from the highs.
  • The weakness in the USD over the past few months will be something to keep an eye on as the year continues with it trading at levels we have not seen since early 2022.
  • Tensions in the Middle East continue despite a drawdown in aggression.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

31 Mar 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31

The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now.

Via Barchart

Soybeans came in at 83.495 million acres as their lack of profitability at current prices is making farmers switch some acres to corn. As you can see from the chart below there have not been much help for beans but if this acreage number is close to what we see, it is hard to think they would dip much below $10. The post report action was disappointing as beans continued lower.

Via Barchart

Wheat had bullish news from the report as acreage came in 1.125 million below estimates. Wheat has some bullish world news for price with emergence concerns in the Black Sea and US Plains, despite recent price action. News out of the Black Sea and any issues with the US crop will be market movers for now.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their volatile swings while President Trump’s “day of liberation” approaches on April 2 when tariffs are supposed to be going in place. Volatility will be the name of the game as many unknowns remain in the trade wars.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in at 9.867 million. This is 1.315 million acres less than last year. Cotton needs to see demand pick up to get back and stay over 70 cents/lb.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches the drought monitor begins to become important again as subsoil moisture always seems to be a problem somewhere.

PRICES

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

13 Mar 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT

First Glance:

Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat.

Corn             24/25 US Corn Stocks:  1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate)

                       24/25 World Corn Stocks:  288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate)

                       24/25 Brazil Corn Prod: 126 MMT (126.07 Estimate)

                       24/25 Argentina Corn Prod: 50 MMT (49 Estimate)

 

  • Corn had a boring report with balance sheets remaining unchanged across the board. Global corn stocks were slightly lower and China imports were 2 mmt lower. Corn needs to get through technical resistance at the 50 day moving average ($4.59 ½) to see a move higher, it is currently trading at $4.55.

 

Beans        24/25 US Bean Stocks:  380 MBU (379 MBU Estimate)

                    24/25 World Bean Stocks:  121.41 MMT (124.56 MMT Estimate)

                    24/25 Brazil Bean Prod: 169 MMT (169.18 Estimate)

                    24/25 Argentina Bean Prod: 49 MMT (48.88 Estimate)

 

  • Beans did not receive much news as US bean stocks remained the same while lowering world ending stocks 2.93 mmt. The one item of note is that the USDA lowering the seed usage 3 mbu, potentially hinting at a lower bean acre number.

 

Wheat        24/25 US Wheat Stocks:  819 MBU (797 MBU Estimate)

                     24/25 World Wheat Stocks:  260.08 MMT (257.62 MMT Estimate)

 

  • Wheat was slightly changed this month with larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced exports and an increase in ending stocks. Exports were lowered for the EU, Russia and the United States. While not by large amounts (0.9 million tonnes) it was enough to move the market slightly lower with no big news in corn or beans.

Overview:

A quiet report as the market looks elsewhere for news to dictate trade. As China gets involved in the tariff war with Canada and Trump steps up tariffs on some imports while delaying others, there remains more questions than answers. News from the White House will be the main market mover moving forward until the planting intentions report at the end of the month. While South American weather is not a problem currently that is always a variable to keep an eye on as their second crop begins to take shape.

Note from the report: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.” This is important because US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed until April 2 on all products covered by the USMCA meaning theses numbers are estimates if this is resolved before then.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have given up all gains since the election in November as trade wars and tariffs dominate the headlines with the chip stocks and market leader Nvidia getting hit hard as recession fears ramp up. The global markets, after lagging the US markets for several years coming out of Covid, have ramped up recently, having a better start to 2025.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The tariff war is up and running as everybody tries to out tariff each other. How long this lasts will ultimately decide how much economic damage is done.
  • Canada has a new Prime Minister after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney from the liberal party took the position.

17 Feb 2025
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 27 – FEBRUARY 14

Corn rode the wave higher following the updated USDA numbers in the January report with old crop prices settling into a range and 2025 steadily moving higher. The funds are long 1.8 billion bushels and staying long which is helping this market higher with the general fear being a huge corn acreage number for this year that could present a problem. South American weather remains consistent with non-threatening forecasts while the US has a striking cold few days coming. There are multiple items supporting a continued grind higher from here, but funds have their hand on the scale so keeping an eye on what they do and what the technicals are saying will be important as well as harvest data out of South America. It is never too early to look at making sales for the 2025 crop year once you know your breakeven. You can always look at re-owning it on paper if the market really makes moves higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been trading flat since the January USDA Report bump. South America’s record crop present price challenges to the US as we are not the main supplier for the world anymore. A renewed trade war with China would certainly have negative effects again on the soybean market. South America yield numbers and any tariff wars will be the main news in the market until planting begins. Beans inability to continue the rally like corn is not surprising but the corn-bean price ratio that we are seeing is going to make for some interesting conversations when planting is decided.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile as we start the year with the Magnificent 7 taking a break while managers repositioning for expected moves (or lack thereof) from the Fed. With the constant talk of tariffs and then delays to implementation, it provides a volatile market within different sectors.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat has moved higher recently with record cold weather and winterkill concern driving it to a technical breakout.
  • Livestock prices have pulled back this month but are still at strong prices as the head count in the US remains on the small side.
  • Tariff announcements remain at the top of mind of the markets as uncertainty is the main issue with no clear guidance and kicking the can down the road.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

12 Sep 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 26 – SEPTEMBER 12

Corn has gotten back above $4.00 in a struggling market that needs good news to propel it back to the mid $4s. The USDA raised US corn yield to 183.6 bu/ac up from 183.1 bu/ac in last month’s report. In the USDA’s eyes the crop is getting bigger as struggling areas will be more than made up for by the best areas across the corn belt. Despite the higher US yield numbers, the corn trade following the report was welcome to see as it did not move much lower on larger numbers. If corn can bounce off or hold this $4 level then we can probably expect it to hang around here as planting gets rolling until we know what is actually in the field and if the numbers are closer to 180 or 183.6.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice 50+ cent rally off recent lows with dryness in areas causing a little concern with pod fill and some pickup in demand. The USDA kept yield the same at 53.2 bu/ac as they agree with Pro Farmer tour that a massive crop is out there. Like corn, this recent bounce off lows is encouraging but may setup a range bound trade until harvest gets rolling and we have a better idea on the true yield. The USDA did slightly lower US ending stocks in both 23/24 and 24/25. Continued exports and any issues to South American planting are needed to drive beans higher in the current market.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster lately with the tech/semiconductor trade having quite a bit of volatility while some rotation occurs with the Fed rate cuts expected to begin this month.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate this month

Wheat

  • Wheat has been the one positive market lately, hitting new 2-month highs. The war in Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate and the market has responded accordingly. The USDA did not make any major changes in the report.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

26 Aug 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 26

Corn’s continued weakness following the August USDA report. Pro Farmer completed their crop tour last week and see the US yield being 181.1 bu/ac and a total 14.979-billion-bushel production. With another record crop expected this year, the market is continuing lower as plenty of 2023 corn remains in storage needing to be moved before this year’s harvest gets underway. The end of month heat is not expected to do much damage to the corn crop, but this crop is not done yet and still needs some more rain to get to the finish line. While demand is improving in the commodity space with a weaker USD, the large supply is still driving prices lower for the time being. There is not any major news to keep an eye on coming up except export and weather news.

Via Barchart

Pro Farmer found a massive crop in their tour last week estimating the 2024 US bean crop at 54.9 bu/ac(!!) and 4.74-billion-bushel total production. This soybean yield would easily be a record and would justify the collapse in bean prices seen this year. The current heat will likely stress the crop a bit, making that big a yield unlikely, however we should still expect to see a record crop, like corn. Soybeans need some good news in the form of demand whether that be from exports or the sustainable fuel market to get this thing turned around without production concerns in South America.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rallied back to recent highs after a small correction with the Yen carry unwind and some market broadening out of tech. With earnings season coming to an end markets will trade on economic data and any election surprises after Nvidia this week.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Fed chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole last week and set up for the Fed to begin cutting rates next month.
  • The Canadian rail strike started and seemingly ended quickly with the government stepping in and saying that arbitration will decide negotiations.
  • Wheat’s summer trend lower from the $7.59 high looks to continue as it is not getting any help from other commodities to pull it up.

Drought Monitor

  

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

14 Jun 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 31 – JUNE 14

Corn’s small 18 cent rally off recent lows for new crop corn has been very welcome after 6 down days in a 7-day period to end May and start June. This week’s USDA Report was a non-event with the USDA making no changes to South Americas production from last month despite the trade expecting production well below the USDA’s estimate of 175 mmt (171.82 estimated). CONAB released their estimates on Thursday, increasing their estimates for Brazil’s corn crop but still 310 million bushels below what the USDA is saying. The heat over the next couple of weeks is not expected to be a major problem but if this level of heat with a lack of rain goes into July the markets would take notice and begin to worry a bit.

Via Barchart

Beans are lower over the last 2 weeks with them settling into a flat trade this week. The USDA report was uneventful despite the USDA cutting another 1 mmt from Brazil’s bean crop. US exports were revised lower and ending stocks rose as the slow pace of exports continued. With no major surprises and no major weather/production issues yet there is not much bullish news outside of CONAB’s Brazil production estimate which is 207 million bushels below this week’s USDA update.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The S&P 500 and NASQDAQ continue to move higher setting new all-time highs as several large tech companies beat on earnings. The AI movement is continuing its dominance, but some other areas are starting to find strength as funds are forced to reposition.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The cotton market continues lower as there is nothing bullish in the news cycle for it other than the potential for up to 25 named hurricanes this year.
  • Wheat’s roller coaster ride continues with potential for lower Black Sea production still a possibility after the $1.50+ rally follows by a $1 fall with 10 down days in a row.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

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