Risk Management Archives - RCM Ag Services

17 Feb 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 27 – FEBRUARY 14

Corn rode the wave higher following the updated USDA numbers in the January report with old crop prices settling into a range and 2025 steadily moving higher. The funds are long 1.8 billion bushels and staying long which is helping this market higher with the general fear being a huge corn acreage number for this year that could present a problem. South American weather remains consistent with non-threatening forecasts while the US has a striking cold few days coming. There are multiple items supporting a continued grind higher from here, but funds have their hand on the scale so keeping an eye on what they do and what the technicals are saying will be important as well as harvest data out of South America. It is never too early to look at making sales for the 2025 crop year once you know your breakeven. You can always look at re-owning it on paper if the market really makes moves higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been trading flat since the January USDA Report bump. South America’s record crop present price challenges to the US as we are not the main supplier for the world anymore. A renewed trade war with China would certainly have negative effects again on the soybean market. South America yield numbers and any tariff wars will be the main news in the market until planting begins. Beans inability to continue the rally like corn is not surprising but the corn-bean price ratio that we are seeing is going to make for some interesting conversations when planting is decided.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile as we start the year with the Magnificent 7 taking a break while managers repositioning for expected moves (or lack thereof) from the Fed. With the constant talk of tariffs and then delays to implementation, it provides a volatile market within different sectors.

Via Barchart

Other News

Wheat has moved higher recently with record cold weather and winterkill concern driving it to a technical breakout.
Livestock prices have pulled back this month but are still at strong prices as the head count in the US remains on the small side.
Tariff announcements remain at the top of mind of the markets as uncertainty is the main issue with no clear guidance and kicking the can down the road.

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Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

10 Feb 2025

Agriculture, CME, Hedging, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The dynamic of supply and demand guides most commodities markets

The Lumber Market:

The dynamic of supply and demand guides most commodities markets. Admittedly some do have a slight amount of emotion added to the trade. Not here. Lumber is different. Most of the trade is based on opinions, emotions, and rumors. Supply and demand factors are secondary. We all know it as a fact and have learned to trade the whole package. This last go-around in futures was a perfect example of the smooth-out cycle that many economists embrace. The thought is pricing smooths out over time. Not in a few hours. While I agree with the theory, I have never enjoyed it in lumber. You are never hedged in this market, and that lack of hedging allows for wide swings. Wide swings kill margins, and reduced margins bring in more caution. Today, everyone wishes for higher prices to bolster the bottom line. A $600 2×4 looks much better on the books than a $400 one. We are seeing a market in the greatest smoothing out period in its history after a run to $1700. It takes time and pain. What a western Canadian producer is at has little to do with the market. Times have changed.

We continue to seek a tighter supply environment to raise prices. This is year three of that strategy. At this pace, the mills could continue to hover around break-even indefinitely. How do we survive in this environment? With SYP and Euro not embracing the cutback strategy, the pool of wood is always available. They always look to sell their wood, which is negative. This leaves the battle between SPF and the marketplace.

There are always chances for a commodity to see sharply higher prices when not warranted. Today, lumber is one. At no time should emotions warrant higher prices when a market doesn’t have the dynamics, but they do.

The trend will be down in the next couple of months as housing stays flat, but prices will spike up and back. The market gives up $30 to $50. Don’t look to add more to it. Trade what it gives you.

Now for today:

The futures market has recovered 50% of this move. 596.30 is 50%, and 61% is 605. Without the algo selling, we could see higher prices, but they will eventually appear. For the next few weeks, the mills will try to dig in. Owning cash today will show a profit.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

27 Jan 2025

Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: It was a tough week with selling pressure dominating

Recap:

It was a tough week with selling pressure dominating. Who was selling? Most likely an algo that doesn’t grow a position. But I think the bigger question, and one that may linger for a few quarters, is why there isn’t much support on the way down. A quote Friday after existing home sales came out was troubling.

“On an annual basis, existing home sales (4.06 million) declined to the lowest level since 1995, while the median price reached a record high of $407,500 in 2024.” By the way, multifamily construction hit a record last quarter. The industry is very reluctant to participate beyond the contracts that they deal with.

New home sales do better as the existing inventories get sold. Today, with the higher interest rates and record costs, that won’t be happening any time soon. That leaves us in the same atmosphere in 2025 as it was in 2023 and 2024 when the builders created the market. That gives us the duty rally, the tariff rally, and finally, the shutdown/supply rally. At no time does it chase the industry into the marketplace to load up.

If nothing else, the trade is consistent. It made a high and then came back down to value, or at least what the charts call it. We spent a lot of time trading like this at $520. Value is determined by the volume traded in that area. $565 has had a lot. Have we moved our value area from 520 to 560? Too early to tell. The algo type selling strains the market but doesn’t represent it. The industry’s next move will. Just remember, business isn’t dead.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

27 Jan 2025

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Uncategorized, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 10 – JANUARY 25

A lot has happened in the corn market since our last update, from a new administration taking office to a surprise USDA report. The final yield and stocks for 2024 came in well lower than previous USDA estimates leading to a solid rally for a market that needed it. The USDA lowered the final average yield to 179.3 bu/ac, down from their estimate of 183.1 bu/ac in November. The market had been priced in for a 182+ yield so as you can see in the chart below the market responded appropriately. The market popped higher to reach new 6-month highs following the report and has continued higher with funds having long positions in the market.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ also got a bump following the January USDA report. The USDA lowered the US crop from 51.7 bu/ac in November to 50.7. The yield cuts worked through to ending stocks but did not completely match as demand numbers were slightly trimmed with harvested acres raised. The Biden administration did not help out the SAF industry on their way out as bean crush plants remain in limbo on its future as a less eco friendly Trump administration takes over. What was projected to be a huge win for soybean growers now is a cloud that you do not know how long it hangs around before it rains. South America’s yields were barely changed with their forecasts now the most important thing to the markets (outside of President Trump starting any trade wars).

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have had a volatile end to 2024 and start of 2025 but overall seem to be in a good place as Q4 earnings start to come in. A wave went through the market with Chinese DeepSeek coming out with an opensource AI model that is much cheaper than anything in the US. This caused tech stocks to plummet to start the week with Nvidia losing over 15%. With no immediate tariff action by the Trump administration the market sighed some relief as this administration appears to be taking a more measured approach than in President Trump’s previous term.

Via Barchart

Other News

The USDA’s revisions lower were both surprising in a positive way and frustrating how they were so wrong on the data the market traded for the last few months when farmers had to sell.
The Trump administration had their first spat over deporting illegal immigrants with Colombia president Petro while mutually threatening tariffs over the handling of the situation.

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10 Dec 2024

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 10

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between $4.30-$4.55 heading into the new year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ last few weeks of trade between $9.80 and $10 has not provided much bullish optimism. There were no surprises in the Dec USDA report as large South American crop expectations and the US bean carryout doubling from 2023 are still bearish influences. Soybeans have a tough road ahead as South America is on pace to produce another record crop, and the incoming administration will likely not be biofuel friendly in the US. With all the recent investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, there is a cloud that hangs over those areas that we are not sure if it is nothing and will blow over or a storm that may linger.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have continued higher with some recent weaknesses in the largest stocks while strength in the market has broadened. Analysts are beginning to release their outlooks for 2025, while plenty still feel good about the market do not expect another year of 20+% returns like we saw in ’23 and ’24 (so far) after the down year in ’22.

Via Barchart

Other News

The Assad regime in Syria is over. Israel and Hamas appear close to reaching a temporary ceasefire. The fallout of both will be watched by energy markets as many questions will emerge in the region.
There was a slight cut to US wheat stocks, but world stocks are as expected, and comfortable as low Russian cash prices continue to reflect their ample supplies.

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25 Nov 2024

Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Coming into the week we were expecting a sloppy trade

Recap:

Coming into the week we were expecting a sloppy trade. With a later Thanksgiving and the recent run up, a technical correction was not out of the question. The problem is that lumber futures have a tendency of unwinding gains in a hurry. That’s what we saw in January futures from Wednesday on. There was no change in market conditions to warrant a rollover so what caused the steep selloff?

The lumber market has changed. There will be times of tightness exclusively caused by supply reductions. JIT from here on out will keep you undersupplied in a trending higher market. That said, the standard operating procedure will remain the same in 2025 with the boss calling for no losses on excess inventories. That’s a receipt for price spikes. Most will agree that it will be harder to buy something in a rallying market. What holds many back is the fact that once the cycle is over there is no support. That is what we are experiencing now. The futures market can settle back towards its original value. With the cash and futures prices so close, I would not expect the futures to return to 560. The discovery period of the next level should be higher. The issue I see is that there are about 15 trading sessions left between now and the new year to gain some momentum. It might be the algo/fund buying or the cash trade picking up again. This is a tough environment for price discovery. Buy the mistake.

Technical:

The market was able to fall to the 595.15 retracement point. The major support point is the 50% mark at 586.25. The RSI is 44.50% and the stochastics are heading lower. Both indicate a market that had pressed higher than value and now is giving it back. If this was a court of law a new precedent of 623.50 is on the books. The 200-day moving average is 566.70.

The key takeaway is how to trade the basis. There needs to be a recalibration of the model. $40 or $50 basis is still great. The issue is when. The first spike could be followed by another so now you are managing the futures. It looks like the trade switch could be one that the trade makes money on the cash side now. All these are signs of a change in trend. We are still in a sideways market. The trend is only a minor factor in the overall trade. If you have too much wood, hedge it.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

11 Nov 2024

Agriculture, CME, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: New highs going into NAWLA?

Recap:

New highs going into NAWLA? Now that is different. I think it also shows how this market has been turning early for months now. This lack of supply followed by a lack of demand cycle has kept the buy side off balance. The data indicates that the demand pattern, while not busy, is coming in more often. Buyers are used to a longer lag between buys so are not ready for the next one so soon. There is also an effect on the production side as they drop prices more aggressively looking for a longer lag. I can see the mills taking a more wait and see approach as the buy side stays in. This is all predicated on a bottom for this to be correct.

I made a call for $600 in the July contract back in April. I was surprised on how long the mills would lose money. The windfall from the last few years certainly allowed for some patience. They also have a good understanding of the cycles. This is one that has to play out. Profitability is getting close. My point is there is a lot of unspent capital out there. There is a lot of dry powdered out there. And the economy is good. Not bad for housing.

This is not going to be an easy ride. There just will be less overall pressure. As we speak, they are backing up the Queen Mary to Cape in Florida. The eastern guys have already turned it up. Supply increasing is the biggest headwind to the market. It is no longer rates. The trade is conditioned to back away at any sign of extra supply. When the wholesale community is in the middle there is this false sense of extra wood available. As I said, it’s not going to be and easy ride from here, but it is better. If the mills start to hedge they will keep the market tight.

Technical:

Going back to what was said above, the market this time did not correlated to the norm. The July to Sept run up, followed by the October lows never materialized. This year the market slowed into September only to walk itself up. The technical picture had turned neutral from negative. That wasn’t enough to buy the market but indicated a change. My point is that all three turns in the technicals to become a trade may not work here. There are times where a lag skews the osculators. This was one. If that remains the case, it indicates some downside in front of us in futures, but just enough to get the tech pic neutral. It continues to lean towards hedging. That hasn’t changed.