soybeans market Archives - Page 2 of 2

27 May 2022

Corn, Crude Oil, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 12 – 26

Corn has traded lower over the past couple of weeks as planting progress has sped up following a slow start to the planting season. While we knew the corn would get planted, the early delay was worrisome and continues to have the potential to lead to harvest yield loss. Despite the gains in many states, ND and MN are still wet and cool with no warmer weather in the forecast to help pull these areas into any form of normal pattern.

With the country wide and regional delays to planting, the latest USDA yield estimate of 177 bpa seems realistic vs the initial 181 bpa. That said, more progress will be made over the 3-day weekend as catch up is played leaving traders only guessing how the lates progress data will be reported come Tuesday. 3-day weekends tend to be unpredictable as the markets do not open until Monday night, so any weather event over the weekend followed by a shortened trading week will likely lead to continued volatility.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have bounced back the past couple of weeks as they have traded up and down since making contract highs in February. Diesel’s rally has helped beans as it increases the need for more vegetable oil in renewable diesels. Chinese demand has been quiet and their new deal with Brazil for corn could lead to friendlier trade elsewhere as well. Planting is slow but we are not late enough into the year yet to worry about yield loss, like we are with corn. More progress will be made over the long weekend and could see a volatile open Monday night as well.

Via Barchart

Crude Oil

Crude is back trading near its post invasion highs of the mid $110s while natural gas continues higher. The world energy market continues to trade higher while countries try to explore ways to ease the burden on their citizens. This problem will not be fixed anytime soon so we should expect higher prices in to the summer.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets saw a welcome rally this week amidst the continued bear market of the last few months. While this may just be a temporary bounce before the Fed reduces its balance sheet, it is nice to see some positive days in a row. Mixed earnings, interest rates, and the war in the Ukraine continue to dominate the story lines. Keep an eye on the big names as they will continue to decide which way the market goes.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows where we stand week to week.

Podcast

There is an agriculture tug of war happening across the nation, impacting America’s farmland. Fertilizer prices are continuously fluctuating, and it has us taking a page the “The Clash” should we stay, or should we go?! And we aren’t the only ones. Many farmers are asking their agronomist and chemical salespeople, “what will fertilizer cost me the rest of the season, and what are my options if I don’t want to go all-in on my typical fertilizer treatment plan?”

In this episode of the Hedged Edge, we are joined by a special guest who needs no introduction in his local circle, Dick Stiltz. Dick is a 50-year veteran of the fertilizer and chemical industry and is the current Agronomy Marketing Manager of Procurement fertilizer and crop protection at Prairieland FS, Inc in Jacksonville, IL. He is at the pulse of the current struggle and here to discuss the topic at hand.

Via Barchart

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

02 Oct 2020

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 26 – OCTOBER 2

Corn saw a big boost as a result of the surprises in the USDA stocks report this week. Corn came in 255 million bushels below estimates at 1.995 MBU, which comes back to what everyone thought that the USDA overestimated the 2019 crop. This adjustment lowers the 2019 yield by about 3 BPA, which sounds much more accurate from what we heard from talking to farmers. Ultimately, this means world stocks are tightening as Chinese demand of US grains has picked up with Phase 1 trucking on. Post-report funds continued to get long, which helped the drive up as well. Exports continue at a great pace as harvest begins in many parts of the US. Continue to keep an eye on exports and weather as any major delays to harvest/crop moisture could prevent problems although the forecast is favorable into mid-October. The chart below shows the sharp bounce back up after a couple weeks of slow losses.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had the biggest surprise of the report as ending stocks were down 42% from the September 2019 report. Beans came in at 523 million bushels, over 50 million below the average estimates. This low number on top of continued large buying from China saw a 25-cent rally after the report. Like corn, funds continued to get long post-report and are now long 1.07 billion bushels. As export numbers continue to be large and the USDA updated the stocks down, both were very bullish. Brazil’s growing season has gotten off to a good start as some areas are starting to look for rain. A good rain in Brazil would put a damper on the bulls, but with funds so long they will look to exports and harvest.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow bounced back this week despite a Presidential debate that left more questions than answers. Tech continued its bounce back after it took a tumble a few weeks ago as airlines and travel industry saw a boost as more potential aid could be heading there way along with a second stimulus package is in discussion. The unemployment report on Friday will be the main market mover. But with President Trump testing positive for Covid-19 more uncertainty and volatility will be added to the markets. Any updates on his condition with it will be watched closely as we will not see any campaigning from him over the next couple of weeks.

World Weather
Brazil and Argentina are off to a pretty normal start as planting went well. Central Brazil will see higher than normal temperatures accompanied by average to below average precipitation. Dry and warm outlook for central Brazil to start October and Argentina has a slightly dry outlook with normal temperatures.

11 Sep 2020

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: September 5 – 11

Corn gains on the week have been driven from continued strong export numbers as well as trade expectations of a 178 yield estimate heading into the USDA report on Friday. The report came out with a 178.5 bu/acre estimate which is pretty in line with what the trade was expecting. The drop from the 181.8 bu/acre yield estimate from the previous USDA report comes from a combination of the storm damage in Iowa as well as the extended stretch of dryness across many states to end last month. This impressive run up by corn from the lows seen in early August has been welcome heading into harvest. With a 2.5 billion bushel carryover still estimated we may see a tightening of prices as corn leaves the fields and we get a better idea on final yield as well as demand. The bump up in expected corn exports is good to see as the USDA expects countries (China) to continue their buying. Below you can see the Supply and Demand chart for corn from the report.

Via USDA

Soybeans have seen strong gains like corn in the last month. The report came through with numbers close to expectations with little surprises. Exports continue at a good pace and China announced that they intend to rebuild government stocks. A month ago $10 soybeans did not seem to be in play but now it is within a few cents. As we get closer to harvest the weather’s effect on the crop will be diminished outside of an early freeze that could cause damage. Keep an eye on exports to keep their pace and any bullish weather news as that magic $10 number looks to be met. See the Soybean Supply and Demand chart from Friday’s report below.

Via USDA

Dow Jones
The Dow has continued to bounce up and down finishing down on the week as tech continues its loses. As the pandemic drags on and business come back or close for good the attention will begin to shift towards the election.

Korea Bans German Pork Imports
South Korea banned German pork imports this week after an African swine Fever case was confirmed in Germany. This move falls in line with guidelines for animal food and safety and is an expected move as South Korea themselves have had trouble with ASF in parts of the country and has been banned from exporting its pork products. Look for some of South Korea’s demand to come to the US market.

USDA: The USDA released their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates today, read the entire report here.

28 Aug 2020

Agriculture, Corn, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKETS UPDATE: AUGUST 22 – 28

Corn saw solid gains on the week as large exports and continued weather problems were the market movers. The western corn belt looks to continue its dry run in the coming week with no widespread rain expected in areas that have been suffering from drought. This will put more strain on the crop as we head into harvest. The crop, especially in Iowa on top of the storm damage, has been fighting drought conditions most of the summer in the western corn belt so an already strained crop doesn’t look like it will get much help coming down the stretch. Large exports this week also helped give a boost as China is stepping up their purchases over the past month. Along with the rally in Dec ’20 prices the ’21 crop has gotten a boost as well to much more attractive levels than a few weeks ago. The chart below shows the rebound back to levels we last saw around the 4^th of July. It is possible we have already put in a low heading into harvest as weather outlooks, crop conditions and exports have been favorable for prices as of late. Unfortunately favorable for prices does not usually mean favorable for the crop so hope exports continue because any good weather news to help the crops would be bearish for prices.

Via Barchart

Soybeans saw a major bounce this week as weather concerns and Chinese buying drove the market. As soybean yields are still at a higher risk than corn at this point in the year the dry weather outlook could cause some damage to the crop. Like corn, the areas already in drought conditions will continue to hurt along with areas that have just started struggling look to continue into September. The continued exports to China are promising as consistent buying in bulk would be promising of long term Chinese demand. As everyone likes to see prices going higher for this year after a long year of Covid-19 and weather, do not forget to be thinking about the ’21 prices if the rally continues where you could sell forward some of your production for ‘21 or gain some premium for storing until next summer. If China continues making purchases and the weather remains grim look for this rally to continue or hold until there is news to stop it.

Via Barchart

Hurricane Laura
Hurricane Laura slammed the gulf coast in eastern Texas and western Louisiana as a category 4 storm. The hurricane will bring 5-10 inches of rain and heavy winds to the western Mississippi Valley. As the storm is expected to turn northeast and dump rains on the southern Ohio Valley this weekend it will miss the areas that need the rain the most in the western corn belt. Seeing the destruction brought by the storm along the coast our thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected. (Check out some more thoughts on a hurricanes effect on futures markets from our sister company here)

02 Jul 2020

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Soybeans, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Update: June 27 – July 2

Corn finally got some positive news in the USDA report this week with planted acres coming in well below the March estimate and below the trade estimate. Planted acres came in 92.006 million which is about 5 million acres less than the estimate in March of 96.990 million. One thing of note from the USDA NASS Farm Labor survey that took place between May 30 and June 16, is that there was still 2.24 million acres of corn to be planted of the 92.006 million. This means that the acreage could still be lower if the entirety of that 2.24 million gets planted. Even with the bullish acres news there was still some bearish news in the report when it came to the quarterly grain stocks report. Something that is also important to keep in mind that just because 92 million acres are planted does not mean there will be that many harvested. Even with a solid trend line yield north of 178, these acreage numbers should help. As always, keep an eye on exports and weather as the fundamental market movers in the short term.

Quickly touching on the weather outlook, there looks to be heat and dryness for the next couple of weeks in many areas. This will put some stress on the crop and this kind of forecast along with the USDA numbers from this week are the 2 catalyst moving corn higher.

Dec ’20 Chart

Via Barchart

Soybeans prices, like corn, saw a big bump from the NASS report, even though there wasn’t as much obvious bullish news from the acreage report. The acres did not change much from the March estimate of 83.510 million to 83.825 million acres. The trade estimate had it higher, trading at 84.716 million, which allowed for prices to jump up along with corn. Many people think that the acres are higher as a possible landing spot for those 5 million acres of corn that disappeared. Do not be surprised if we see more acres down the road. Soybeans in the long run still need as many exports to China as we can get going forward. The trend line yield of 50 bushels per acre is still in play with the start we have had but like mentioned above for corn the heat and dryness in the upcoming weeks could impact yield.

From speaking to farmers, it seems many farmers who planted in April and got washed out switched their acres from corn to soybeans. We are not sure how widespread this, is but don’t be surprised if soybean acres is higher when all is said and done.

Nov ’20 Chart

Via Barchart

Wheat got a boost out of the report just like corn and soybeans. Wheat’s gains came mostly as a result of following corn and beans higher as the report was not as bullish for wheat. Wheat acres were down 400,000 from the March estimates. It was welcome for wheat prices as they have been on a losing streak the last month as we look towards July for some help. If corn and soybeans continue to find support and prices go up look for wheat to be a benefactor of that as well.

Sep ’20 Chart

Via Barchart

The report was bullish for cotton as well as we have seen a rally because of it. Planted acres were down over 1.5 million acres from 13.703 million to 12.185 million acres. This is also down 11 percent from 2019. Cotton prices got a boost when these numbers came out as many acres were not planted due to a wet spring or prices being too low. Knowing the acreage number now moving forward weather in the major cotton areas will be important to keep an eye on. A tropical storm or drought, depending where, could cause cotton to jump like it has from this report.

Dec ’20 Chart

Via Barchart

Miscellaneous
Planted Acreage for principle crops dropped 7.2 million acres from the March report, 5 million of which came from corn. The big question is where did these acres go? We may see a lot go to prevent plant as only 3 million acres are estimated for PP but it is possible that a lot of acres were not planted because of depressed prices as a result of loses from the trade war the past couple years and the disruptions from COVID-19 pandemic all could be factors. Click here for the acreage report.

← Previous 1 2

Disclaimers
RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.