Tag: soybeans market

13 Nov 2026

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE OCTOBER 9 – NOVEMBER 13

Corn opened this period with one of the most bearish USDA surprises in years. The October 9th WASDE raised the national yield 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bpa, the largest September-to-October jump since 2005, when the trade was looking for a cut to roughly 177.7. That pushed production above 16 billion bushels, lifted 2026/27 ending stocks 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, and sent stocks-to-use back above 10%. December futures briefly traded limit down, and the funds that had built a record net long in early September headed for the exits, slashing their net long from roughly 231,000 contracts in mid-October to about 56,000 by October 27th. Add in harvest pressure and export inspections running about half of last year’s pace, and December corn slid to $4.39 by November 9th, its lowest since mid-August and more than $1.10, or 20%, off the $5.50 high posted September 2nd.

The November 10th WASDE flipped the script. USDA cut yield 1.6 bpa to 179.6, below the 180.3 trade average, with Illinois down 8 bushels to 200 and Indiana down 5 to 195. Production fell 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion and, even after trimming exports to 3.275 billion, ending stocks dropped to 1.758 billion (10.8% stocks-to-use). December corn jumped nearly 10 cents to $4.49 on report day, but the rally lacked follow-through and settled at $4.42½ on Thursday as a stronger dollar, weak wheat, and favorable Brazilian weather weighed. With harvest only 81% complete as of November 8th, five points behind average and slowed by wet conditions in Iowa, some analysts think USDA may trim yield further before the final number in January. Between now and the next update, watch the 20-day moving average near $4.50 in Dec as overhead resistance, the weekly export pace, and early-season weather for Brazil’s crop.

Soybeans followed a similar round trip. The October report was neutral to slightly bearish, with yield raised to a record 53.1 bpa and ending stocks at 315 million bushels, and beans bled lower through October as harvest raced ahead. The bigger blow came from Brazil, where Lula’s surprise October 25th runoff victory sent the real roughly 11% lower, making Brazilian beans cheaper on the world market and knocking November soybeans down 34¼ cents that week. January futures bottomed at $11.84 last week, about 12% below the September 11th high near $13.50, before China stepped back in with announced purchases on five of six business days into November 6th. The November WASDE then delivered a friendly surprise: yield rose only to 53.3 bpa against a 53.6 trade guess (and whispers near 55), exports were raised, and ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to a tight 300 million, a 6.5% stocks-to-use, while the season-average price was raised 10 cents to $12.10. January beans rallied nearly 40 cents to $12.28 on report day before profit-taking pulled them back to $12.19 Thursday. The next major catalyst is the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18th-19th, though observers expect major deliverables may wait for the G20 in Miami in mid-December. Brazilian planting weather and the pace of Chinese sales remain the other key watch items.

Wheat has been the weakest link in the complex, extending its losing streak to nine straight weeks into early November. Managed money flipped from long to short in Chicago and has kept pressing, with the net short reaching roughly 88,700 contracts as of the most recent report. The main driver has been diplomacy: U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th, the first such discussions since February, have raised hopes that Black Sea grain flows could eventually be restored, and Russia temporarily resumed some Sea of Azov shipments under Kerch Strait permits valid through November 15th. The November WASDE added to the pressure, leaving U.S. production unchanged at 1.534 billion bushels, nudging ending stocks up to 743 million, and raising world ending stocks 4.8 million metric tons to 280.8 million, well above trade expectations. December Chicago SRW settled at $5.84¼ on Thursday, down from above $7.30 in early September. Going forward, the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine talks is the swing factor, and with funds carrying a large short, any breakdown in negotiations or renewed Black Sea disruption could trigger sharp short-covering.

Equity Markets

Equity markets have been on a roller coaster. Stocks slid for four straight weeks into early November as concerns over AI financing and data center spending collided with the midterm elections, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7% in the first week of November alone. Wall Street then recovered most of those losses on November 9th, with the Dow jumping more than 1,100 points to 52,389 as oil prices fell, before a hotter-than-expected inflation report on November 10th revived rate-hike fears. That is the backdrop to watch: after hiking in September and holding with two hawkish dissents on October 28th, the Fed is widely expected to raise rates again at its December 8th-9th meeting, with the 10-year Treasury yield already north of 5%. It also doesn’t help when the CEO of the largest company in the world is forced to resign amongst scandal.

Energy Markets

Crude oil continues to take its cues from the war with Iran, now in its ninth month. Prices rallied through October, with Brent hitting a six-month high and November WTI trading above $100 per barrel, before diplomacy took over after the midterms. President Trump said further strikes are highly unlikely as long as talks progress, and Brent fell to its lowest level since late August with crude posting its steepest weekly decline since 2020. December WTI bounced $2.33 to $88.94 on Thursday, a reminder that physical barrels remain tight and Strategic Petroleum Reserve holdings are at their lowest since 1982. For producers, any lasting peace deal would bring welcome relief on diesel and fertilizer costs, but analysts caution that normal Hormuz flows could take months to return even with an agreement.

Other News

– The Trump-Xi meeting at APEC in Shenzhen (November 18th-19th) is the most important near-term demand event for soybeans. The U.S.-China trade truce has been extended to January 10th, and the leaders are expected to meet again at the G20 in Miami on December 14th-15th.

– Cattle futures sold off sharply as USDA continued its phased reopening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle, with Columbus, New Mexico becoming the third crossing to reopen on October 26th and Nogales scheduled next. December live cattle fell more than $10 in one week in late October, and November feeders dropped another $15.45 the following week.

– Hogs were the weakest livestock market, with December lean hogs down 9% in the week ending November 6th and speculators holding a record net short of more than 50,000 contracts.

– USDA cut U.S. cotton production 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales in the November WASDE, while harvest is running well ahead of normal.

– Brazil’s post-election weaker real is a lingering headwind for U.S. export competitiveness across soybeans, corn, and cotton heading into the South American growing season.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor with harvest nearing its end.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 Aug 2026

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

MARKET UPDATE: JULY 24 – AUGUST 12

Corn caught a bid on today’s August USDA Crop Production and WASDE report, the first survey-based, field-sampled yield estimate of the season, and the market did not get the bearish surprise many were bracing for. USDA cut the national corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre, down 5.8 bushels from last year’s record 186.5 bpa, while also finding an extra 1.4 million planted acres, pushing total planted area to 96.7 million and harvested area to 88.6 million. Total production still landed at 16.013 billion bushels, which would be the second-highest crop on record if realized. The bullish twist was on the demand side of the balance sheet: with higher exports and lower beginning stocks, USDA trimmed 2025/26 ending stocks to 1.945 billion bushels and 2026/27 ending stocks to 1.653 billion bushels, both below trade estimates, pulling the stocks-to-use ratio down to roughly 10.1%. The report comes after a rough June for corn bulls, when Managed Money liquidated long positions aggressively into the Memorial Day-to-mid-June stretch and left December corn defending the $4.40 area. The crop still has a ways to go before it is made, and weather remains the swing factor: national good-to-excellent ratings stood at 61% as of August 10, a steep 12-point drop from a year ago, with the western Corn Belt states from North Dakota down through Texas carrying notably lower expected yields than 2025.

Soybeans had a positive report reaction even though the headline numbers were less bullish than corns. USDA pegged the 2026 bean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, just a touch below the average trade estimate of 52.9 and down slightly from last year’s final 53.0, but a 1.4-million-acre increase in planted area pushed total production to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025. Ending stocks were actually raised across the board versus trade guesses, both old-crop (325 million bushels) and new-crop (320 million bushels), which would normally read as bearish, but the broader complex strength and a genuinely encouraging demand backdrop carried beans higher. That demand backdrop has real teeth behind it: China has stepped back into the market with five separate flash-sale announcements since August 3, totaling roughly 1.12 million metric tons in the past week alone, and outstanding 2026/27 sales to China stood at 3.11 million metric tons (114.3 million bushels) as of July 30, about 12% of a rumored 25-million-metric-ton full-year purchase target. The crop is far from finished, with 62% of the nation’s beans setting pods as of August 2 and good-to-excellent ratings at 63%, down 6 points from a year ago, so timely August rain during pod fill remains the key variable to watch.

Wheat was another big mover on report day, up 20 to 13 cents across contracts with September futures trading near $6.34. The USDA numbers themselves were fairly neutral to modestly bullish, with all-wheat production pegged at 1.531 billion bushels versus a 1.525 trade estimate and 2026/27 ending stocks trimmed to 717 million bushels from 722 million in July, while world stocks were nudged higher to 273.25 million metric tons. The bigger story for wheat over the past two weeks has been the Black Sea, where intensified Russian and Ukrainian drone and vessel attacks on grain terminals, including a strike that halted operations at Novorossiysk. Ukraine has trimmed its 2026/27 grain export forecast by as much as 12%, and Russian wheat exports are now expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade, with IKAR cutting its export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes. Weak international demand and ample supply on paper have kept a lid on the rally so far, but the shipping-risk premium is a real and growing factor heading into the peak Black Sea export season.

Equity Markets

Equity markets have continued to grind to fresh records since our last update, with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high of 7,757.64 on August 7, capping its best week since April on a 3.6% weekly gain, while the Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq rode a sharp rebound in AI and chip names back toward its early-June highs. With 86% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates this season, the fundamental backdrop has given investors cover to keep buying dips. This week’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be the next real test of whether the rally has room to keep running or whether hotter inflation data forces the rate conversation back the other way.

Energy Markets

Crude oil has reversed sharply higher after bottoming in the upper $60s to low $70s in late June, with WTI grinding higher for five straight sessions into today’s close near the mid-$80s and Brent trading close to $89. The renewed strength is tied back to Middle East uncertainty: Iran has been pushing for war-compensation demands from the US and Israel as a condition for any lasting deal, and while Pakistan’s defense minister has said the US and Iran are close to an arrangement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump’s more combative rhetoric this week has kept traders guessing on timing. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman have added a fresh layer of shipping-risk premium on top of the Hormuz uncertainty.

Other News

– Black Sea shipping risk is back in focus for wheat, with Ukraine and Russia increasingly targeting each other’s port and vessel infrastructure. Turkey has temporarily suspended some Black Sea transit operations amid the escalating security concerns, and both countries have cut their near-term export forecasts even as underlying production is running slightly ahead of the five-year average.

– China’s return to the soybean market with repeated flash-sale purchases since early August is the most constructive demand headline the bean market has had in months, though at roughly 12% of a rumored 25-million-metric-ton target, there is a long way to go before it fully offsets the shortfall from earlier in the marketing year.

– Cotton continues to take its cues from the broader energy and commodity complex; the recent bounce in crude could put a firmer floor back under natural fiber pricing versus petroleum-based synthetics after a quiet summer.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

12 Jun 2026

Agriculture, Cattle, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 29 – JUNE 12

Corn has been under persistent pressure since Memorial Day weekend, with funds aggressively liquidating long positions built up over the spring. Managed Money has sold hard across the corn market going on the last 3 weeks, while the pace has slowed, they could continue selling if they want. The primary catalyst has been a combination of favorable planting weather, excellent crop establishment across the corn belt, and a crude oil market that has been retreating as Iran peace talks progressed. The June WASDE brought few surprises on corn. USDA described the 2026/27 corn outlook as “virtually unchanged” from May, with ending stocks coming in at 1.942 billion bushels and the season-average farm price forecast held at $4.40 per bushel. Old-crop 2025/26 ending stocks ticked up slightly to 2.145 billion bushels on a modest increase in imports, keeping carry extremely comfortable. The one positive was exports, but it was not enough to keep corn up close to $5. 96% of corn has been planted with a 67% good/excellent rating to start the week.

Soybeans have been caught in the same fund liquidation wave as corn, though they’ve shown more resilience given the tighter fundamental backdrop established in the May WASDE Report. July beans settled near $11.15 heading into the June 11th report. The soybean complex did find a brief bounce mid-period on continued strong crush margins and some renewed optimism around a potential Trump-Xi bilateral trade framework, but it didn’t hold. Planting pace has been exceptional, with 92% of beans in the ground and South American supply estimates remain large, with USDA maintaining Brazil’s 2025/26 crop and making only minor tweaks globally.

Wheat has been the most volatile market of the period, but not in the direction bulls had hoped. After touching multi-year highs in mid-May on the back of the historically small U.S. winter wheat crop, both Chicago SRW and KC HRW futures have been in a steady slide. July SRW dropped from around $6.36 to the $5.86 area during the period before attempting a bounce, while July KC HRW fell from the mid-$6.70s to the low $6.30s. The catalyst for the pullback was a combination of timely rains arriving in Kansas and Nebraska late in May, some improvement in crop conditions relative to the worst-case scenarios, and funds taking profits after an extended rally.

Equity Markets

Equity markets have continued an impressive run with volatility recently and profit taking in some of the high flyers leading to a few heavily lower days. With inflation still a worry many investors believe that we are likely to see a rate HIKE before the end of the year rather than another cut.

Energy Markets

Crude oil has been the dominant macro variable across all markets and the primary driver of the grain complex selloff over the past two weeks. WTI has fallen sharply from its spring highs above $110 per barrel as Iran peace negotiations have progressed, at times with apparent momentum, though the path has remained anything but straight. The headline to end the week that there is an apparent Memorandum of Understanding to end the conflict in the Middle East took crude back below $85 to end the week.

Other News

The June 30th USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are the next major scheduled market events. Any meaningful deviation in final corn or soybean planted acres from the March Prospective Plantings survey will be a significant market mover across the complex.
The New World screwworm situation in Texas received its first mention in the WASDE narrative this month, a reminder that animal agriculture has its own emerging risks to monitor alongside the geopolitical backdrop.
Cotton has pulled back with the broader commodity complex as crude oil retreated, removing some of the energy-driven premium that had made natural fiber more attractive relative to synthetics. Producers should continue to evaluate hedging strategies to protect margins at still-profitable price levels.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

12 Jan 2026

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: POST JANUARY 12 USDA REPORT

Corn took a dive on today’s USDA report with 1.3 million more harvested acres and larger yield than expected coming in at 186.5 bu/ac. With this comes more production leading to larger ending stocks, brutal two-sided hit for the corn bulls. Corn had done a great job of climbing higher since early December, but today’s report gives all the momentum back to the bears with South America’s growing season off to a great start. Corn’s big move lower sent it below all technical support and unless we see a quick turnaround this week what was a support level could turn into overhead resistance as we are now at levels last seen in August.

While the USDA report was not as bad for beans, it did suffer double digit losses with a slightly higher than expected national yield of 53 bu/ac. One important item was that US exports were revised lower due to more world competition. This is important as we still need China to buy US beans as we do not have another major market catalyst as the Trump administration has not been friendly for the implementation of SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). The month and half of +$11 beans we saw will be a struggle to get back to as South America continues to roll on with another record crop expected.

Equity Markets

Equity markets roll on despite some days of volatility with headlines from the White House and drama surrounding the Fed. As you can see in the chart below since last April’s tariff scare the markets have been steadily moving higher.

Other News

The precious metals trade continued its strong 2025 into the start of 2026 with new highs in gold and silver.
Wheat had ending stocks rose modestly and the price was dragged lower with corn.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

09 Dec 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 14 – DECEMBER 9

Corn has been trading sideways since the end of October and nothing from today’s USDA Report gives it reason to change course. The main news for corn has been the lack of news. Corn did dip 20 cents in late November but bounced back to the middle of the range it has been in around $4.45. In today’s USDA report they kept US production the same while raising the export forecast by 125 million bushels, lowering US ending stocks to 2.029 billion bushels. The global stocks number was also revised lower with production cuts to other countries, including Ukraine. While the report was modestly bullish corn will need some more news to leg up to the $4.60 range as South America is off to a great start.

Beans have tumbled off their recent highs as the rocket higher ran out of fuel and has been giving back those gains. The USDA left US production the same with an overall neutral report with no major surprises. Global stocks were slightly raised as Brazil, India and Russia offset tighter supplies elsewhere. With no news to turn this recent downtrend around the market needs positive China trade news desperately as that was the initial “news” to drive markets higher.

Equity Markets

Equity markets have rallied from the November dip and are within a couple % of new all time highs. The markets are expecting another rate cut this week and would be surprised if there is not.

Other News

The wheat numbers were mostly unchanged and did not have any major news to change the direction of trade but could turn around on global trade news.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

14 Nov 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 27 – NOVEMBER 14

Corn’s Thursday rally was met with a post report Friday dip and gave up 10 cents back to $4.30. Despite the late season crop problems of drought and rust, the USDA did not find the corn yield loss that was expected and came in with a 186 bu/ac estimate, higher than the trade estimate. With higher production came higher US ending stocks, but those were not raised as much as yield as corn exports and domestic industrial demand has been exceptional this fall. The chart still looks constructive, but after a 30-cent rally in one month, the market will look to take a breather, especially after today’s report.

Beans have been on a great run higher, albeit with some volatility, until Friday’s USDA report. Coming in that hot to a report can lead to a let down which we saw to some extent. The bean yield numbers were not as surprising as corn, coming in close to estimates, but the market still took a hit. The number to look at was the US held bean imports to China unchanged at 112 MMT for the 25/26 marketing year. A flash sale report did show sales of 1.1 mbu to China around the time the trade deal was in the works. The delayed data is hard to fit with all the other news out there but China buying anything is a good sign.

Equity Markets

Equity markets have been volatile the last few weeks as worries of an AI bubble continue and several large companies such as Palantir, Meta and Oracle are well off their 52 week highs. Volatility will likely remain in the market for a bit as we will get caught up on economic data that was missing during the government shutdown.

Other News

The wheat numbers were bearish as domestic and world stocks continue to climb on record world yields in all producing countries and exporters finding exports difficult to come by even at rock bottom prices. Wheat will remain an anchor on corn rallies.
Cotton adjustments show 900K more bales of US production, 200k more bales of US exports, and 700K more bales of US ending stocks compared to September.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest rolls on.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

30 Sep 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 12 – 30

Corn had been trading in a range north of $4.20 the last couple weeks but dropped below there on the heels of the Sept 30^th USDA Report. The USDA raised US ending stocks for corn from 1.325 billion bushels to 1.532 billion which pushed December corn prices to new 1-month lows. With plenty of supply and massive crops in both the US and South America the last 2 years, balance sheets have ample supply while demand for US corn remains strong outside of demand from China. With funds holding bearish positions, it will take a combination of them changing their tone and China showing up with purchases to give prices some news to rally on unless we get in the fields and the yield just isn’t there.

Beans were lower post USDA report as well despite the report being neutral continuing their recent downtrend. The biggest hit to beans in the past couple weeks came when President Trump and President Xi had a call and no announcement of Ag purchases were made around it. Without China buying US beans there is no major upside currently, except for potentially lower yields. South America’s crop has been able to satisfy China’s needs as that trend will continue moving forward until they run out of supply.

Equity Markets

Equity markets continue to trade at or near all time highs as a slowing job market could lead to more rate cuts after the Fed cut by 25 basis points this month. While GDP growth had a strong bounce back quarter and the stock market is still doing well, fueled by AI stocks, the overall economy is showing some warning signs but remains strong.

Other News

Wheat continues to make new lows with a slightly bearish USDA report with larger US production.
Corn harvest is 18% complete and soybean harvest is 19% complete.
It seems more and more likely that there will be some extra government assistance to farmers this year with the depressed prices.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor as harvest begins.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

Check it Out:

Convenience vs. Cost: Navigating Agricultural Markets, Convenience, and Consumer Spending

14 Apr 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 31 – APRIL 14

Old crop corn has had a strong rally over the last 2 weeks, having a 40 cent rally after trading relatively flat since its 80 cent pullback in February. While markets were rallying before President Trump’s announcement of a 90 day pause on tariffs, they liked that news to push higher. Any positive news about negotiations with Mexico would be great for corn. The April 10^th crop report cut old crop stocks more than expected on increased exports by 100 million bushels, but a modest 25-million-bushel demand cut to US feed demand. US planting should accelerate this week as weather is favorable and where planting hasn’t started allow for field work to get done. Weather during planting will be the main factor if we end up having 95-96 million acres of corn planted.

Soybeans have also benefited from the recent rally corn has. While the rally may be losing steam until we have a better idea on how many acres will actually be planted in the US, new crop’s rally above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages provides some support under a volatile market. China continuing buying beans will be important as any mass cancelations will signal trade issues in Washington. As trade negotiations continue it will be important for small wins for the ag sector in all of them who are currently buyers.

Equity Markets

“Liberation Day” created sharp market selloff with the White House announcing a delay to the tariffs a week later as countries came forward wanting to negotiate. The markets are well off their highs from February as well off their lows from the post tariff announcement. As the market is in flux as they try to get a feel for what could come next for the economy (recession?) or what comes with these negotiations and China, volatility will likely remain on any headline news.

Other News

Any progress in trade agreements with Mexico could be good for corn prices as they are our largest buyer. China needs to continue buying beans and any trade progress with them would help beans.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

31 Mar 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31

The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now.

Soybeans came in at 83.495 million acres as their lack of profitability at current prices is making farmers switch some acres to corn. As you can see from the chart below there have not been much help for beans but if this acreage number is close to what we see, it is hard to think they would dip much below $10. The post report action was disappointing as beans continued lower.

Wheat had bullish news from the report as acreage came in 1.125 million below estimates. Wheat has some bullish world news for price with emergence concerns in the Black Sea and US Plains, despite recent price action. News out of the Black Sea and any issues with the US crop will be market movers for now.

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their volatile swings while President Trump’s “day of liberation” approaches on April 2 when tariffs are supposed to be going in place. Volatility will be the name of the game as many unknowns remain in the trade wars.

Other News

Cotton acres came in at 9.867 million. This is 1.315 million acres less than last year. Cotton needs to see demand pick up to get back and stay over 70 cents/lb.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches the drought monitor begins to become important again as subsoil moisture always seems to be a problem somewhere.

PRICES

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 Mar 2025

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Futures, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT

First Glance:

Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat.

Corn 24/25 US Corn Stocks: 1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate)

24/25 World Corn Stocks: 288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate)

24/25 Brazil Corn Prod: 126 MMT (126.07 Estimate)

24/25 Argentina Corn Prod: 50 MMT (49 Estimate)

Corn had a boring report with balance sheets remaining unchanged across the board. Global corn stocks were slightly lower and China imports were 2 mmt lower. Corn needs to get through technical resistance at the 50 day moving average ($4.59 ½) to see a move higher, it is currently trading at $4.55.

Beans 24/25 US Bean Stocks: 380 MBU (379 MBU Estimate)

24/25 World Bean Stocks: 121.41 MMT (124.56 MMT Estimate)

24/25 Brazil Bean Prod: 169 MMT (169.18 Estimate)

24/25 Argentina Bean Prod: 49 MMT (48.88 Estimate)

Beans did not receive much news as US bean stocks remained the same while lowering world ending stocks 2.93 mmt. The one item of note is that the USDA lowering the seed usage 3 mbu, potentially hinting at a lower bean acre number.

Wheat 24/25 US Wheat Stocks: 819 MBU (797 MBU Estimate)

24/25 World Wheat Stocks: 260.08 MMT (257.62 MMT Estimate)

Wheat was slightly changed this month with larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced exports and an increase in ending stocks. Exports were lowered for the EU, Russia and the United States. While not by large amounts (0.9 million tonnes) it was enough to move the market slightly lower with no big news in corn or beans.

Overview:

A quiet report as the market looks elsewhere for news to dictate trade. As China gets involved in the tariff war with Canada and Trump steps up tariffs on some imports while delaying others, there remains more questions than answers. News from the White House will be the main market mover moving forward until the planting intentions report at the end of the month. While South American weather is not a problem currently that is always a variable to keep an eye on as their second crop begins to take shape.

Note from the report: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.” This is important because US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed until April 2 on all products covered by the USMCA meaning theses numbers are estimates if this is resolved before then.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have given up all gains since the election in November as trade wars and tariffs dominate the headlines with the chip stocks and market leader Nvidia getting hit hard as recession fears ramp up. The global markets, after lagging the US markets for several years coming out of Covid, have ramped up recently, having a better start to 2025.

Other News

The tariff war is up and running as everybody tries to out tariff each other. How long this lasts will ultimately decide how much economic damage is done.
Canada has a new Prime Minister after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney from the liberal party took the position.

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Disclaimers
RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.