Weather Archives - Page 4 of 5

14 Mar 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Soybeans, Uncategorized, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 3 – 10

Corn made slight gains on the week with very volatile intraday markets. The Ukraine and Russian news continue to stay in the market and will likely dominate headlines until it ends. Other news worldwide is that South America got rains in southern Brazil and Argentina, with dry central and northern Brazil. Russian officials announced that they would suspend fertilizer exports through the end of the year, presenting a supply crunch across the world. This week’s USDA report was nonexistent in the markets as there were no surprises. As mentioned last week, Ukraine’s corn crop may not get in the ground as only 60% of seed is on farm; this will be important moving forward as world balance sheets get tighter.

Via Barchart

Soybeans made small gains this week despite the wild intraday volatility. The USDA trimmed South American production again in this week’s report as they continue to baby step lower to what will be a smaller crop. World edible oil prices were up on the week pulling bean oil and soybeans higher. The Black Sea area’s worry and trade have affected the oils market, not just wheat.

Via Barchart

Wheat fell hard this week with an expanded limit down the day with a small bounce on Friday heading into the weekend. All the short wheat positions that were getting run over had the opportunity to get out this week with the move down. However, the unknown in eastern Europe and China having its worst winter wheat crop on record means there is still upside with volatility. Friday’s gains were welcome to see after three days of large losses. The cash market will be essential to follow as it will help determine the fair market value.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity market fell again this week as continuing war, and another record inflation number was challenging for the market to figure out. While the market seems like it is struggling to make up its mind, there are pockets that are performing alright. The world economic outlook appears to be teetering, and trying to digest what to do with Russia will be a major decider.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Tune in as biotech guru Dr. Channa S. Prakash discusses everything from Alabama football, genetics as one of the most extensive agricultural advancements, the most significant risk factors to feeding the world over the next 30-50 years, plus everything in between.

Why producing crop plants with a much gentler footprint on the natural resources will help feed the growing population. How 75% of the world’s patents in agriculture gene editing are coming from China. Understanding that trying to impose restrictions on our ability to grow food can be a considerable risk to agriculture. Listen to hear about these topics and more!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

25 Feb 2022

Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 17 – 24

Corn was up a lot this week for similar reasons as wheat, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushing commodities higher. The conditions have improved in South America, but the length of trouble still caused large amounts of damage to the crop that we still do not know the depth of. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum came out with 92 million acres for corn, with some acres going to soybeans along with a 181 yield. A 181 yield would be a record crop, but with the supply chain issues, fertilizer prices, and availability of chemicals, many factors could affect yield if farmers can’t get all the inputs. Ukraine and Russia will be the market-moving news for now until we get a better idea of the long-term consequences. The February insurance price for corn is $5.89 ½. Friday’s early selloff will test the bulls for all markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gained on the week as the Russia and Ukraine news dominated headlines. Outside of this news, the weather outlook improved for South America that would have been bearish for bean prices if the eastern European turmoil was not going on. The USDA Ag Forum came out with an estimated 88 million acres with a 51.5 bu/acre yield for beans this year in the U.S., which is a bearish number but not surprising at these current price ranges. The November bean price had a more visceral reaction as it fell quickly Thursday off the highs having over a $1 trading range for the day, ultimately falling 36 cents to $14.51 ½. The February insurance price for beans is $14.33 ½.

Via Barchart

After days of large gains earlier in the week, wheat was limit up on Thursday after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat and other agricultural goods as it is the 5th largest wheat exporter in the world, with Russia being #1. Not only is the world wheat supply threatened, but all trade in the Black Sea area will be affected, potentially only for a short period but disrupted, nonetheless. Russia accounts for more than 18% of the world’s wheat export and is a large oil and natural gas exporter, so any sanctions that hit their export economy could see ripple effects. This is only the beginning of this conflict, and wheat will be along for the whole ride, so you should expect volatility.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity markets continue to get crushed as, along with the struggles since November, we now have a war between Russia and Ukraine. This will make the Fed hesitant to raise interest rates, but as the bond rates have already risen, we are heading that way, whether it is a 25-point or 50-point bump. Tech stocks (NASDAQ) hit a 20% decline since November highs on Thursday before bouncing off the lows. Volatility will remain in the market as Russia remains a threat and China is a large unknown moving forward. Commodity prices have risen even more with oil nearing $100, so the inflationary pressure on the markets will not disappear any time soon.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

11 Feb 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKETING UPDATE: FEBRUARY 3 – 10

The numbers came in above trade estimates but were lower than the previous months’ report. The USDA kept the U.S. ending stocks at 1.540 billion bushels and lowered the world ending stocks to 302.22 million tonnes while reducing Brazil’s yield. Following the report, it came off the highs for the day before roaring back up to end the day. Thursday’s trade was interesting as halfway through trading, the markets did a 180-degree turn and fell lower on the day after being sharply higher across the board for a large intraday range. This was brought on by producers selling and speculative positions taking profits. The large intraday volatility has not been as present in the market as this summer, but Thursday’s trade is a sign that volatility should be expected at these price levels. The USDA’s numbers for Brazil and Argentina are still above what private analysts and CONAB are reporting. The market seems to be on the analysts’ side when it comes to the struggles in South America. The weather outlook remains the same for the trouble areas as it will be hot and dry in the same areas and wet in the same.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continued their run higher despite Thursday’s pullback. The most significant change in the report came to soybeans as the USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 1.5 million tonnes and Brazil’s 5 million. As much of a correction that the USDA made, some analysts still feel these are too high, and their crop will continue to get smaller. With the continued hot and dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil mixed with the wet harvest in northern Brazil, mother nature is not doing South America’s crops any favors. CONAB released their estimates on Thursday and were well below the USDA numbers, so it’s safe to listen to their numbers and analysts over the USDA right now, it would appear. The two-year chart is below so that you can see the journey of how we got to this point with the great run since early November. Thursday produced the same wild volatility as corn, which saw a 67 ½ cent range while falling off the highs.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The equity markets have been quieter lately, with small gains on the week, but the uncertainty of what lies ahead remains. The inflation number came in at 7.5% year over year, the highest increase since February 1982. With inflation sticking around and treasury yields jumping, the 10-year treasury topped 2% for the first time since August 2019; it is understandable why the markets have the jitters. Will the market hang out where it is, retest the lows, or try to continue to claw back its losses from January? The market can’t figure it out, so I won’t try to predict for you.

Via Barchart

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

28 Jan 2022

Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 20 – 27

Corn continued its rally this week as grain bulls and inflation continue to drive it higher. The yield losses in South America continue to have news around it as the reality of significant losses begins to set in. Too much rain and heat or not enough rain and heat have been driving the issues, with very few areas having excellent growing conditions. With the Chinese New Year coming up, China will disappear from the export reports for a little bit, but once they come back, the market will have a better idea of where Brazil and Argentina sit. If the rumored losses come to fruition, we could see China increase its purchases. Corn has continued its rise while wheat struggles to make up its mind with confusion around the Russia and Ukraine situation. Any escalation there will result in more bullish factors in the market. Despite some volatility, energy prices continued their rise, with crude oil hitting a new high this week. Ethanol plants will continue to produce even with higher corn prices as long as their margins remain strong despite resulting in less fuel consumption. Many energy companies think we could see $100+ Crude in the next few months.

Via Barchart

Soybeans continued to move this week on similar news as corn with South America’s issues and continued world veg oil strength. With strong veg oil prices pulling beans along with it as long as that lasts, we can expect some support under beans with any lower moves. Like corn, if private estimates of losses to the South American crop become a reality, we should continue this run higher. If China comes back from Chinese New Year and starts picking up bean purchases, mixed with world veg oil prices could see this rally continue. Acreage estimates for 2022 have been coming out, with Informa pegging the US bean crop at 87.8 million acres. This is slightly higher than the 87.2 million acres from 2021, but we have a long way to go before we get to that point.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

Equities had quite the week with large intraday trading ranges as the market does not seem to make up its mind. This week, the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates as-is means we should expect a raise from the March meeting. The Fed also said they would adjust asset purchases moving forward. The tensions between Ukraine, Russia, and NATO remain a large question mark, but it appears Putin may not do anything until after the Olympics. This will be important to keep an eye on for equities and commodity prices.

Via Barchart

Cotton

The cotton market has held in this $1.20 range for the last ten trading days. World demand is there, and this bull market could have room to run if inflation sticks around with other supply chain bottlenecks. We could continue to see this strength last into the spring when planting starts until we get a better idea of what the U.S. cotton crop will look like this year. With rising consumer demand, the cost of production and transportation in the next few months could see volatility.

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

21 Jan 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 20

Corn rallied this week with beans with news of trouble in South America continuing and rumors of purchases from China. As we have mentioned before, China buying all ag products is welcome news as they are well behind the Phase 1 targets. The Russia and Ukraine tension, should it boil over, will have major implications for the commodities market as Ukraine’s exports will all but cease. The news of Brazil stopping bean sales is worrisome as there could be more bean and corn yield lost than thought. Energy prices continue their run higher as ethanol demand does not seem to be slowing down. With corn still below recent highs, unlike soybeans, it would appear there is still room for upward movement, but the trade into the weekend, where anything can happen as we know, will be important.

Via Barchart Soybeans rallied this week as soy oil and meal also rallied. The noise around the problems with South America’s crop got a little louder this week with StoneX reporting that Brazil soybeans have gone to “no offer” due to farmers refusing to sell new-crop supplies in the current environment, with drought losses in the south worse than first believed. South American weather remains mixed as southern Brazil and northern Argentina remain hot and dry while southern Argentina received rain over the last couple of weeks. In early February, all areas are expected to revert back to hot and dry in the forecast. These troubles make it sound like the USDA was off on their South America estimates in last week’s report. This is a situation to monitor as any stoppage of sales from Brazil and Argentina would mean purchases from the U.S.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

Equities have had a bad week as tech has led the way lower. These rounds of selloffs will offer opportunities to buy back in at some point but as always, timing the market is not an easy job. The market was so hot last year pullbacks are expected, but it is hard to stomach when it falls this much this fast. We are still above the levels we were right after Thanksgiving, but the volatility of the last couple of months looks to still be hanging around.

Via Barchart

Podcast

The 2021 U.S. grain crop has the potential to be one of the largest on record. Where did all the yield come from, what areas were the hardest hit, and why on God’s green earth are grain prices still so high?

Today, we are joined by several RCM Ag Services grain markets experts from around the country to catch up on a post-harvest update and share an outlook for production and marketing in each of their respective regions for the remainder of the 2021 marketing season and the upcoming 22 crops.

Via Barchart.com

07 Jan 2022

Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 6

Happy New Year! Volatility has been the main storyline in the first week of 2022. There was enough surprise rainfall in the dry areas of South America to spook the markets right before the New Year before a slight bounce. This week’s ethanol production numbers were slightly below last week. Compared to the previous year, monthly ethanol production is running 9% over last year, but ethanol stocks are 8.3% below last year. Ethanol margins are still profitable as gas has rallied since Thanksgiving. The dryness and heat in Southern Brazil and Argentina remain in the forecast while northern Brazil continues to get too much rain. For reference, this time of the year in Argentina is the equivalent to June. If the forecasts prove true in the next couple of weeks, they will continue to stress the crop. Exports this week were nothing to write home about as the USDA described them as the “Marketing year low.” If South America’s crops continue to struggle, we could see an increase in exports, but the opposite could be true if the weather improves.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have experienced the same volatility as corn but remain at its highs, as seen in the chart below. The story is the same as corn being driven by weather problems in South America. Barchart estimated Brazilian soybean production at 137 million tonnes, with Argentina production at 45 million tonnes. The last USDA projection had 144 million tonnes in Brazil and 49.5 million tonnes in Argentina, showing that the private sector believes the crop has gotten worse and is trending in the wrong direction. The chart below is interesting because you can see the top at $14 this week and back in July. That will be an important number to close above to keep the momentum going.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow has had quite a volatile week following a week of the Santa Claus rally. The Fed may increase the rate at which they raise rates which worries some investors, but at this point with the Fed, many investors are waiting until they see the plan. As a new year starts, especially following the impressive year that was 2021, many investors try to predict the story for the year ahead. If we have learned to expect anything while Covid is in the markets, we can’t predict much for the year ahead.

Via Barchart

January USDA Report

The January USDA Report is Tuesday and should be a market mover. All eyes will be on the report as everyone positions themselves ahead. If the volatility of late shows up, it could be a big market mover.

Podcast

Via Barchart.com

28 Sep 2021

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Market Commentary, Other News, Weather rcmagserv 0 comment

2021 Harvest Report — Your First-Hand Look Into Tennessee’s and Mississippi’s Crop Season

As corn, soybeans, and many other crops begin to enter their harvest season, it is time to think about how the harvest is progressing on the farm. According to agriculture.com, soybean harvest progress is at 16%, and the site reported corn to be at 18%. On top of the progress, it showed that most western and northern states were at a pace above average, and southeastern states were progressing below average.

Last week, RCM Ag Services was fortunate to have a first-hand look at a couple of states within this region. Bert Farrish, Director of Commercial Agriculture, ventured out on an 800-mile crop tour throughout Tennessee and the northern Mississippi Delta from September 21-26. Let’s take a look at his 5-day journey across the south and dive into the industry as Farrish provides his very own commentary for a 2021 crop progress assessment.

Is Weather Hindering Western Tennessee?

The tour began in Western Tennessee, where turbulent weather was predicted in the forecast, and it wasn’t long before Bert was met with strong thunderstorms between Nashville and Lexington. As he encountered severe weather along the I-40 corridor, he naturally observed little to no harvest work. “The crops looked relatively good; however, Western Tennessee has a long way to go with this year’s harvest,” Farrish stated.

“There is still a lot of corn and soybean in the field, and I predict that harvest, for both corn and beans, will move well into October.” But it wasn’t just corn and beans that needed additional time this year. “Cotton wasn’t near ready for harvest; I am estimating that the harvest won’t begin until mid-October.”

Driving Into The Delta

As Farrish continued his driving tour into the Mississippi Delta, progress wasn’t much further along, and he stated that this area had also received recent rain showers. “I would say corn was 90% complete in the areas I drove through,” which contained routes along I-69, Hwy 61, Hwy 8, and Hwy 6.

“With some exceptions, most crops looked great!” However, Farrish had stated some crops like rice still had a ways to go. “I would say the crop is later than usual, but they will wrap up the bean harvest in the next few weeks with good weather.”

But as we all know, weather this time of year is unpredictable, especially with rain in the forecast this week at a 60% coverage. Over the weekend, there was a steady line of trucks through Cleveland headed to the port of Rosedale, MS. Combines were running everywhere Saturday, September 25, and Sunday, September 26.

The Bolls Are Open — A Preview of the Cotton Counties

With the driving tour coming to an end, the last assessment concludes with cotton. Harvest for cotton still has a long way to go. Farrish predicts that 30-50% of bolls are open. “There were minimal small fields that were ready to pick, but certainly no one is going to open a gin for a few bales.”

But that doesn’t mean all areas in the Delta need work. The cotton in Coahoma and Quitman counties looks as good as ever. Farrish stated, “Some fieldwork has been done in the north Delta, but I am certain harvest for all crops is further along in the south Delta, meaning Hwy 82 and south to near Vicksburg. But I was unable to see this area in this trip.”

Final Trip Takeaways

Overall, Bert concluded his trip feeling optimistic about the crop prospects. Although some areas need improvement, most crops look strong and are on track to have a strong harvest season.

Visit our blog, Here’s What you Need to Know About the Outlook for the First Week of October, for an additional harvest update on the many unknown/under-reported issues early in the year that we may be seeing played out combined with the dry and hot finish.

03 Sep 2021

Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 26 – SEPTEMBER 2

Corn was hit hard this week as we continue to experience the fallout from Ida hitting the export business along with a favorable weather forecast ahead. Exports were better than expected this week coming in at 43 million bushels, which was the highest export total for corn since mid-May. The fallout from Ida will, more than likely, be seen playing out in the cash market. That said, the longer supply chains are tied up, the bigger effect it will have on the uncertainty of the futures market. As we have mentioned before, South America’s crop is smaller than initially anticipated. With a smaller crop there will be some demand shift to the US corn crop; however, that is yet to show up in the export reports thus far. The big question is if/when that will change and show up in the US export reports. The September 10^th USDA report next week will either fuel this bear run of the last month or calm the seas. An interesting note – The September USDA report the last 3 years has had the corn yield below the final yield which will be something to look for if they adjust yield.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have had the same fate as corn the last few weeks as the bears have had the momentum. The issues in New Orleans are playing a major role in this week’s fall just like they did for corn. Brazil is getting some of that business despite a premium being paid just because traders know they can get beans on a ship and send it. The good weather in the weeks ahead could still help the soybean crop despite maybe being a little too late for most corn. As seasonal temperatures set in and no freeze expected any time soon the weather is bearish for prices while good for the crop.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow gained on the week as investors continue to feel out the market but not ditching it completely for other options. The rally from last Friday helped pull the market up on the week as the rest of the trading has been muted with no major moving days.

Ida

The port of New Orleans and the other infrastructure in the state of Louisiana and along the Mississippi River will take weeks to address and fix. This will/has caused major problems already for many residents in the areas effected along with the shipping.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast where we’ve brought on one of our real-life firefighters from RCM Ag – Jody Lawrence along with Tim Andriesen from the CME Group to provide us with some inside baseball knowledge of the current state of the agriculture markets and to discuss the real-world application of the use of short-dated options to potentially fight the current blaze of volatility surrounding agriculture markets.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The maps below show there was a little change over the week with weekend rains in some areas that needed it and some drying in Indiana.

Via Barchart.com

08 Aug 2021

Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 29 – AUGUST 5

Corn lost over the last 2 weeks, but as you can see below the range has been much tighter than in the last 3 months. Next week’s reports will be the best chance to trade out of this range, whether it is higher or lower is the billion dollar question. Many private firms have come out with estimates recently ranging from the USDA’s number of 179.5 to the mid 170s. Anything lower than 178 would help the price of corn, along with the continued demand rebound and a smaller Brazil crop tightening world supply. CONAB will update the expected yield for Brazil on the 10^th of August (next week) kicking off a week of important reports. Brazil is expected to continue to get smaller BUT will the USDA adjust their world ending stocks appropriately in the report on the 12^th? Currently the USDA has Brazil’s production pegged at 300-320 million bushels higher than CONAB so a correction would seem to be coming this week.

As you can see in the drought monitors at the bottom many areas are still suffering from a lack of rain and recent heat did not help the situation. Heat is expected to return by the middle of the month after this small break so rain continues to be welcome across the corn belt. Exports were better than expected this week; however not that large numbers that were expected.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a rough week as bean conditions continue to be strong with solid expected yields. Beans have a more bearish feel right now with weather not playing a major factor one way or another. The demand has not ramped up like it did this time last year in the export markets = the bulls need to see that level of demand return to spark additional buying. The USDA’s report next week, like corn, should give us an important update on the expected demand. Current yield estimates are all above 50 bushels an acre with several over 51 bushels. Oil and meal markets have experienced weakness recently as well attributing to soybeans continued decline.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

Despite worries about the Delta Variant, the Dow gained over the last couple weeks and finally broke out to new all-time highs today (Friday, August 6^th) as companies continue to beat earnings across the board. Some states/cities have begun readopting mask mandates in hopes to slow the spread while vaccine rollouts continue.

Podcast

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The maps below show the continued drought conditions in the northern Midwest that reaches into the Canadian planes.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

16 Jul 2021

Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 8 – 15

Corn rallied this week following Monday’s USDA report that was relatively neutral. The USDA left expected US yield the same while slightly lowering the 20/21 ending stocks and raising the 2021 production. The USDA did lower Brazil’s corn production numbers, but some estimates still think they are overstating what it will be. The USDA dropped Brazil’s corn production from 98.5 million tons to 93 million, while only raising Argentina’s 1.5 million. The drought conditions persist in the upper Midwest as some areas are expected to get rain over the weekend. The drought in the Canadian prairies and Dakotas does not have any major relief in the forecast as heat and dryness remains in the next weeks forecast. Exports this week were small but not surprising. Weather continues to be the main driver as markets will react to where it rained and how much over the weekend to start next week. Currently about 36% of the US corn production is in an area experiencing drought. As you can see in the drought monitor below northern Iowa and southern Minnesota is a good amount of that.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gained on the week as well following the USDA report. There was no adjustment to expected yield and only slight adjustments higher to ending stocks. Beans kept up their momentum following the report for the week before cooling off Thursday. It will be important how they end the week and open Sunday to set the tone for next week. Weather continues to be the main market mover as it will be important heading into the end of July and August. About 31% of the soybean production is in an area currently experiencing drought so any and all rain will be welcome for the crop but the price will be impacted as well.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow gained on the week despite growing inflation concerns and Powell’s comments about Fed strategy. The Biden administration’s child tax credit has arrived as well with it going into effect this week. The Delta variant continues to spread around the US with some places beginning to bring back mask requirements.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The maps below show the current drought conditions in the US. The second map is last week’s so you can see how the areas that received rain improved or did not.