RCM Ag Services

Tag: weekly prices

  • Home
  • weekly prices
24 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THERE COMES A TIME WHEN BEING PROACTIVE AND OR INACTIVE BECOME THE SAME

There comes a time when being proactive and or inactive become the same. That is where this industry is today. A better way to put it is the best offense is a good defense. The daily data bombs send mixed messages. These are messages interpreted differently over the generational chasm. If you are over 40 you are looking for the next shoe to drop in housing. If you are under 40 you are looking for the next opportunity. Neither is right or wrong, just educated differently. Let’s look at the issues.

The first focal point that always amazes me is the difference in cycles between multifamily and single-family. In the last 10 years, single-family construction has had 3 downturns while multifamily has yet to see one. Ask a trader in the multifamily space how things are going, and he will say if this is what a recession looks like then he’ll take it. Ask a single-family trader the same question and he will be leaning more on the negative side. The confusing part is the fact that DR Horton had a great quarter, and the home builder stock index is nearing its all-time highs. Things are not that bad so why can’t wood products pull themselves out of this big hole they dug?

Reports are of almost a record number of multifamily projects going on today. That is why those in that space are enjoying the ride. The confusion is in the single-family sector. Data show that the marketplace is tremendously underbuilt. I think the market is telling us differently. Existing home sales are off sharply. The reason is relatively easy to define. The answer is that a few want to increase their mortgage rate by 200%. This normal supply of homes on the market will not be available for some time. Builders will have to step up to supply the shortfall. Starts are hovering above 2019. That was a year that saw an extreme lack of price volatility. That isn’t my call here. The other focal point is that this market no longer can “lack” volatility. It can remain range bound in the new post covid world but with much wider swings. I think what this market is telling us is that there is still more bottoming work to come.

This coming week I expect to see wide swings caused by position evening in May. There aren’t many who want to carry a position into a no-limit May. That covering will add more pressure down than up. What is marketable is the July contract. It is a few dollars away from being a good hedge buy and also a few dollars away from a good basis trade. The basis traders are cleaning up. July is in the zone.

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

24 Apr 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 12 – 21

Corn had a rough week, especially to end the week falling over 20 cents after a small rally. Poor weekly exports, fund selling and the potential for rain in the driest parts of the US pushed prices lower this week. Corn planting was 8% complete to start the week, slightly behind where it was expected to be but in fine shape for this point of the year. Weather will remain a problem from the Midwest with cold temps continuing. Any news out of Russia and Ukraine will continue to move markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a similar week to corn with weakness into the weekend. Brazilian soybeans continue to be at a big discount to Chicago, $2.00, with their record production and storage shortage. China is not as active a buyer as expected in Brazil but less demand from them will lead to more from other places taking away from US exports. The soybean balance sheet has been tight so that would not be a bad thing for global supply but would not be friendly to getting back to $14 beans.

Via Barchart

Cotton was limit down at one point during Thursday’s trade, before bouncing slightly for its worst day in over a month. The export report was less than impressive this week at a 15-week low. The chart broke through its support level during the down trade, changing how the charts look. The chance of rain in west Texas was one of the drivers as it only takes a few well-timed rains to make the markets nervous. While it is still only a chance of rain all eyes will be on if that rainfall comes to fruition. Any widespread rain in west Texas would lead to another limit move lower.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets bled a little this week as the market looks for direction from earnings. The S&P 500 was unable to break through the 4,200 level, coming close before moving lower for the week. Earnings next week for some major companies (Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon) will give us a lot of information that will determine the market’s next move.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt dry.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

12 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 31 – APRIL 12

Corn has been down over the last week and half after the prospective plantings report and this week’s supply and demand report. The theme has been a lack of market moving news with little surprises in the reports. This week’s report was slightly higher than pre-report estimates for US and world ending stocks, but slightly below estimates for Argentina and Brazil’s production. The market did not react much either way to the report as the market continued to trade in its current range. Cash basis is rising and planting is rolling this week, expect this range bound trade to continue between the March 22nd low of $5.47 ½ and resistance at the 20 DMA at $5.61 until there is a catalyst to move it.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a similar week to corn as they traded lower off the post planting report bump. The demand for beans has picked up recently but US and world stocks came out higher than anticipated. Basis continues to improve for beans as well with South Americas crop continuing to get smaller. We continue to learn how bad the Argentine crop is with potential to be the smallest crop in the last 20 years. The recent sideways trend looks to continue for old crop as stocks remain tight with falling Brazilian prices keeping the market from moving higher.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The DJIA moved higher this week while the S&P and Nasdaq sank as CPI came in .1% better than expected with year over year inflation sitting at 5%, core CPI was at 5.6%. It is still expected that the Fed will raise another 25 basis points next month, but the markets believe that will be the last rate hike this year. Q1 earnings kick off this week with several big banks, the guidance and response to the recent banking crisis will be the focus.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt dry.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

10 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: CROSSWINDS VS. HEADWINDS

Crosswinds verse headwinds. I am starting to wonder if the story is of how we all walked 3 miles to school uphill both ways. We are getting to the point where we may just have to take the charts and data from 2020 to 2023 and put them off to the side. While it is reflective historically it may not be the true focal point today. If we push that information to the side, we can focus on today’s factors. All of which we have experienced in earlier cycles.

Positives:

  • The housing market is underbuilt.
  • There has been a generational shift to owning a home.
  • Labor is tight.
  • Real log issues.
  • Great overall employment.

Negatives:

  • The economic question.
  • Highest rates in years.
  • Euro wood. It is a race to the bottom in the wholesale community.
  • The home mortgage business sits with the community bank. They are becoming more restrictive.

 

The negative factors will smooth themselves out more quickly than the positives. Rates and the Euro wood will be less an issue by the third quarter. The economy on the other hand will take much longer to be defined and then to recover. That will be a hinderance to our market. On the positive side, if you build less houses you take care of the labor issue and keep the marketplace thin. That is the direction the home builders have headed towards.

The question coming into 2023 remains the question today. What should the price of a 2×4 be with a 1.2 or 1.1 starts number? That cannot be answered until the Euro problem has cleared up. What I will say is this market has built a box around it. The first thought coming into the year was a muted 2023 trade. That shifted to a higher trade because of business. Now I am an afraid that it is boxed in. What I mean is that momentum will be created only to get hit from the existing factors. This will show up when inventories are light in a falling market and overbuying in a rising market. That is not a sideways trade. It is a trade that finds momentum and then stops abruptly. Opportunity is only available in the middle and lost when the push up or down is in place. It will break out and trade at a higher level eventually, but not anytime soon. For today, real inventories will be a value while the churn and burn crowd are in the liability zone. There is absolutely no reason not to hedge inventories when in this box and futures are a premium.

 

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

03 Apr 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: ALL MARKETS ARE CYCLICAL

All markets are cyclical, and most will return to their historical value area.  In lumber the lens to look through is a long-term one. One that can bypass the noise and create a sharper picture of the market. If you look at 50 years of lumber futures data, you will come up with a mean close to $330. With a $330 mean the closes of January and March so far this year have been normal. Add to that the fact that May is also hellbent on getting there. This is not an abnormal trade. Trading in the $300’s for months and getting about 6% margins is normal. So, what is different this time? The current cycle. Cycles, like waves, are not perfect. The typical long-term cycle runs from 13 to 18 months. Most planted commodities run in 6-to-12-month cycles tied to the growing season. Lumber has a longer cycle because of the timeline of the project. We a currently in our 13th month of a down cycle. The difference is that this cycle started way up at $1477.40. Just a small percentage correction puts the market substantially higher. A $200 rally in a 6% margin environment would be devastating. Then again so would 5 more months of this current cycle.

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

31 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 24 – 31 USDA REPORT

The USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports were released today, March 31st, with a mix of news. The report pegged this year’s crop at 92 million acres while the trade estimates were about 91 million. This led to a mixed trade as pre-report strength faded with futures ending mixed for the day. Current US weather conditions and the expectation of a slow start to planting could lead to this number falling, it is unlikely we will see a number higher than this the rest of the year, similar to last year. Corn stocks were lower than estimates by 69 million bushels and over 350 million bushels lower than last year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans received a boost from the report as with lower acreage and stocks than expected. The planted acreage number came in at 87.5 million acres, lower than the 88.24 million trade estimate. The quarterly stocks were 247 million bushels lower than a year ago, continuing to show the tightness on the balance sheet. South America still has some uncertainty around their crop, but we should get a better idea in the coming weeks. Both numbers from today’s report are seen as bullish for the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat saw some bearish numbers with higher planted acreage and higher stocks than pre-report estimates. 49.9 million acres, 1 million over estimates, and 946 million bushels in stocks, 934 mbu estimate, were both bearish while the price did not overreact. Wheat will follow corn’s lead for now with many questions still surrounding the conditions in the southern plains and the Black Sea.

Via Barchart

Cotton’s bounce this week back to over 83 cents was very welcome after a couple weeks of lower trade. The market did not have a major reaction to the report with planted acreage estimates coming in at 11.3 million acres vs the 11.2 million trade estimate. Speculative short covering helped cotton rally this week while spreads were also a lower than normal percent of the trade. The problem continues to remain of recession fears and how that affects companies purchases trying to weigh supply and demand.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equities had another good week as investors seem to believe the Fed will relax with rate hikes and the banking fears have calmed down along with an ease in inflation pressure as we slowly move lower. Tech companies would be the beneficiary of lowering rates by the end of the year but the Fed’s recent comments would indicate they have no intention to lower rates before the end of the year. There was strength in most sectors this week.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MAKET UPDATE: MARCH 10 – 24

Corn leveled out over the past couple weeks after its move lower into the mid $5 range. Good exports and continued problems in Argentina have been able to keep corn from moving any further lower while funds continue to offload long positions. Corn will continue to trade here until the prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report on the 31st that will play a role in its next move. There could be surprise news that gives it a bump higher or lower but for overall directional change something surprising would need to be in the report. How the USDA adjusts for further losses in Argentina and unpredictable world demand will be two questions to look for in the stocks report.

Via Barchart

Soybeans finally caved and followed corn and wheat lower after putting up a good fight. Brazil’s record bean harvest is under way and with insufficient storage they have to get rid of them driving prices lower to keep US beans even remotely competitive. Like corn the funds are legging out of their long held long positions making the moves sudden and large. Beans saw a nice bounce to end the week making up for Thursdays losses. One would expect the markets to calm down a little next week as the report looms large for any further downward pressure or welcome support.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The markets continue to be confused as they look for guidance that does not appear to be coming. Sec. Yellen this week flipped back and forth on whether or not they would increase deposit insurance for a period of time to help calm fears while the Fed went ahead with its 25 point rate hike. The banking issues make analysts think the Fed could cut rates before the end of the year helping tech stocks but ultimately the Fed likely wont cut rates until we are in a recession.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

13 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question

Recap:

Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question. The first is “there is a massive new home neighborhood going up next to a 40 acre reload full of Euro wood. The other was “for the first time, housing isn’t leading the shit show.” Very eloquent economic summaries. What we saw last week was a very quiet sideways futures market exhibiting some of those characteristics. The sideways trade was not a building of a trend but a sign of confusion and fear. No one is making a call one way or another at this price. If you look at the cash market, no one is making a call at any price. Historically that is friendly at some point. Let’s do the math.

Since the Fed speak turned up in February of 2022 the futures market has fallen over 76% from the 1477 high. During that same period,  crude fell from $130 to $75 and corn from $8.27 to $6.26. All three commodity markets and most others have felt the effects of the raising of rates. Lumber, unlike the other markets, has pulled back close to its historic norm while all others have not. Is this price indicating a harder bottom coming? Considering the lead time needed in this industry it may take till Q4 of 23 or Q1 of 24 to answer.

Macro: The housing market does not bottom out until rates top.

The micro picture has many other dynamics. I think all would agree that these prices are not good for any producer. That fact alone will cause a slowdown in production. It is already in process. We see it in BC shipments and reports from eastern and southern mills. What is hard to determine is where the number was pre-Fed. While production is getting cut it may be from a 1.7 starts equivalent number. If we took the number from 1.7 to 1.4 then we are still over producing. The market needs to see a production number set for 1.2 starts and an erosion of Euro imports. Then we will have a market again.

Micro: Slowing production will cause upward spikes in prices.

The trade for 2023 will be the basis and the best form of protection will be forward pricing. It won’t be a year of making $15,000 on a truck. It’s back to futures 101. That said, build a fence around your risk. You have banks blowing up and many other created ramifications from the spike in rates. A basis trade needs calls against it. Forward pricing needs puts.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

10 Mar 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crop Insurance, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 24 – MARCH 10

The last 2 weeks have not been friendly to corn despite a neutral to bullish USDA report this week. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 40 mmt, but the crop could still be smaller amid a historically poor weather year in Argentina. Corn took a nosedive to end the month of February and has taken another leg lower this week, with the new crop hitting $5.50. After a flat trade for most of February the move lower presents farmers with important decisions regarding what to do for crop insurance. With the Feb average price of $5.91, 40ish cents higher than current levels, farmers should seriously look at the highest level of revenue protection you can get. The premiums will likely be high, but the recent price movement has created an uncertain environment with a long way to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower again this week after rebounding last week as soybeans have held together better than corn. Bean stocks were tighter than the trade expected while exports were up 25 mbu but crush down 10 mbu. Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and stocks. Like for corn, the USDA lowered Argentina’s production below the average trade estimate. While the news out of the report was mildly bullish, the negativity around corn and wheat bled into beans to end the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton was punched in the mouth on Friday after trading lower this week. The USDA did not make any significant changes to the supply and demand report. The lack of demand is the main problem as the global 22/23 forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade with higher production and stocks. The world economic outlook is questionable for the coming year and a global recession would hurt cotton more than other areas.

Via Barchart

Wheat

The story for wheat has not changed as markets continue to get crushed. The report made no major changes to forecasts and balance sheets and there has not been any major changes in Ukraine as Russia continues their assault. Russian officials are expected to meet with UN officials in Geneva on March 13 to discuss the grain deal renewal and trade sanctions.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets moved lower this week on overall market weakness and the Silicon Valley Bank news. While one day doesn’t make a trend, the trend lower since the start of February looks to have room to move lower with another big jobs added number keeping the Fed rate hikes as a question mark.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

06 Mar 2023
Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: HOW BAD SHOULD BAD LOOK?

Recap:

How bad should bad look? We are coming up on one year since the Fed began to raise rates and slow the economy. The effects on the housing industry have been drastic. Starts topped at 1805 last April and dropped to 1309 by last month. The price of the commodity has dropped from the $1000 level to $370 during the same period. The Fed has done its job in this sector. I go back to my question of is this bad going to worse or bad to better? Looking at the futures trade so far in 23 I’m starting to see the possibility of the bad to worse scenario not because of lower prices or less construction but because of a flat market. The most pain would be caused by a $400 market for months on end. That is a no volatility environment at a below breakeven price. That is where the Fed would like us to be. There have been two rallies this year so far. The first was started and driven by fund liquidation. The cash market was underbought but took itself to overbought in days. It was a futures driven rally not an uptick in demand. This last rally of $50 was more of the same in futures as the final group of short funds liquidated. This has become a stagnant market. The housing market has correctly reacted to the Fed’s policies. It has stopped the bubble. The Fed will keep it that way.

The lumber market is commodity driven and that gives it two dynamics demand (which is being controlled) and supply. The panic we saw in January was the supply siders buying up the market. There is too much recent history not to create a panic. The producer side is trying to curb excess supply. That is a very difficult maneuver when mill operations have multifunctional reaches and cash flow. What I do know is that production control leads to a hard bottom. It doesn’t slow down before demand picks up. The supply question is and will cause volatility.

Another point that was brought to my attention last week was industry makeup. We talk about the covid effect on the housing industry as being a “one of a kind event.” While I do agree with that fact, I have to add that on September 12th, 2001, things were looking very bad and in 2009 worse. What I realized last week was that a high percentage of the decision makers in our industry today where not in the business in 2009 or 2001. The movement today is what has been successful over the last 5 years or so. Do we overreact or under react?

I’ll finish with the funds. As of February 7th, the funds had a little over 600 longs and 200 shorts. For a two-week period in January the short fund took their 1950 contracts and a ton of money and went home. That was expected, but not over such a short period of time. As we are trying to establish a trading range in futures, I don’t think the January run is one to look at since it was driven by the funds. Better defined bounces are needed.

Technical:

The technical picture is in the process of developing a fan like model. If we keep it simple the midpoint of the fan sits at 356.55 on the weekly chart. That line goes back to the beginning of the Fed action. This week it is support. If the market can hold that trend line the next measurements will be higher ectara. It spreads out in a fan pattern. If this is a correct model, it shows the timeline between steps as being very long. The next line comes in as resistance at $509. Again, this process would be long and drawn out. Most would rather the market just to blow through the points and spike higher. That really is the risk in today’s  market. An unexpected and unwarranted run-up hurting those with jobs. Put a fence around your risk!!

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.