RCM Ag Services

Category: Agriculture

12 Feb 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crop Insurance, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: February 6 – 12

Corn lost on the week following dissapointing numbers in the February USDA WASDE Report. Despite the big losses on Tuesday and Wednesday following the report a modest bounce was seen Thursday to give the bulls a little sigh of relief. As we have seen with previous dips there has been buying after the dips that help support the market. The big surprise in the report was US corn ending stocks number being over 100 million bushels higher than trade expectations at 1.502 billion bushels. They did lower them from the January report of 1.552 BBU but not near as much as expected. The world carryout was was also bearish with the USDA raising world carryout to 286.53 million metric tonnes, a raise of 2.7 mmt, and well above trade estimates. The bullish news was that Chinese imoprt expectations increased by 256 million bushels but the US export total was only increased 50 million bushels. With this bearish news funds also began to offload some of their long positions adding fuel to the fire. You should also not expect any news to come out of China as they head into their Lunar New Year so buying from China will be slow. Parts of Argentina that have gotten needed rain may have received more help than expected on their crops as some predict it helped more than anticipated. The positive day on Thursday to stop the bleeding was important for the bulls but how the week ends will be important.


Via Barchart.com

 

Soybeans were lower this week as the bearish news in the report for corn moved triggered a broad based sell off at the Board of Trade. Beans took it on the chin Wednesday as fund selling led the way. Despite a neutral report on the beans side, when funds decide to take profit they are the market mover. New export offers from Brazil were part of drawback as they were 40 cents below the US market and that collapse brought the US to about even. The USDA report showed that the US cannot export any more than about 250 million bushels the rest of the marketing year before bins are empty. CONAB released supportive bean crop estimates on Thursday coming in just above 133 million metric tonnes. The tightness of world stocks is on every traders mind and likely what has caused the markets to jump around – While 100 million additional bushels is only 1% of the 10 billion bushels produced any and all changes to production are being watched. The volatility of the past few weeks is best displayed on the visual daily ranges in the chart below.


Via Barchart.com

 

Cotton once again saw a big week of gains as demand around the world continues. Exports were strong this week with Vietnam, Turkey and China being the biggest buyers. The National Cotton Council’s planted acreage estimates came out this week with the following:

The NCC sees Upland acreage down 4.9% Y-O-Y, at 11.3mm acres. Pima acreage is seen down 20.7%, to 161,000. Overall, this imputes a 5.2% decline to 11.5mm acres. (CottonGrower.com)

With only 4 trading days next week, On-Call sales basis the March contract, will have to be fixed (bought) by the Mills before Friday, ahead of First Notice Day on Monday, Feb 22. The loss of acres was expected with soybeans and corn being very attractive in price vs cotton currently. If cotton can continue its run up it may be able to gain some acres back but this recent run will need to continue. West Texas continues to be extremely dry and will need some moisture heading into the spring.

Via Barchart.com

 

Dow Jones
The Dow gained this week as supportive news from vaccines and the continued drop in Covid cases around the US. As many investors remain bullish looking at 2021 it is important to note that we still have a long way to get out of the storm that has been the last year.

Wheat
Wheat has been in a sideways trade the last few weeks and looks to continue. There was no big news in the report that caused any knee jerk reaction in the market as it followed beans and corn lower on the week.

Insurance
Remember that this month is important for revenue-based insurance averages so it will be important to keep an eye on the markets even if you do not plan on making any sales. As of the close on 2/11 the price for corn is $4.5141 and soybeans are $11.645.


Via Barchart.com

05 Feb 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates January 30 – February 5


Corn gained on the week as South America has had issues with their first harvest and the continued wet conditions delaying it in north and central Brazil. Huge exports this week to China and other strong ones to accompany it were very welcome to see. A total of 293 million bushels, a weekly record, was the good news the bulls needed. It is easy to get in a lull where you expect these exports at this point with the past few months of demand but whenever they come in above or at the high end of expectations it is what is needed to keep the momentum. Funds continue to be long close to 2 billion bushels, so like beans the daily volatility may stick around. Continued exports and continued delay of Brazil’s harvest will be the bullish news under the market going into the USDA report on Tuesday that could throw some surprises at us – there is one thing we know for sure it is the USDA is full of surprises (both good and bad).


Via Barchart

 


Soybeans rebounded this week as the markets were not as volatile as the previous couple of weeks. South America got some welcome rain in parts of Argentina and looks to remain hot and dry for the near future. The wetness in Brazil delaying their first corn harvest does not have much of an impact on soybeans, but as we know any big news for one of them will still have a ripple effect. Funds continue to be long as they entered the week long 820 MBU. As mentioned last week when funds decide to take profits, we may see price volatility in stretches. Good exports this week continued as we see consistent demand from China. As beans have been range bound the last 2 weeks relative to the past few months there has been end user buying dips below $13.50 to provide some support.


Via Barchart

 


Cotton got a strong bounce on Thursday after trading relatively flat for the week. This week’s exports were strong with cotton going to 18 destinations. Overseas mills demand has stayed consistent and will continue to be the driving force behind cotton. With all the cotton that has been sold it is not hard to imagine that there will be a supply squeeze here in the US that will continue to drive prices higher as well. The supply squeeze will come as demand remains high; however, at some point we will begin to run out of cotton to export if current pace keeps up. Outside political pressure on China and their accused human rights abuses continue to cause them troubles exporting cotton which has helped the US. As great as cotton’s run has been it still is well below where it needs to be to be competitive with grains. For this reason, cotton acres are expected to fall over 500,000 acres to 11.5MA which would be supportive for new crop cotton as we head into the spring, but will we get a rally before then to keep those acres? The demand is there so it may be a last-minute decision for some farmers.


Via Barchart

 


Dow Jones
The Dow gained this week and traded to new contract highs as market volatility has slowed down following the short squeeze drama of the last week. Covid-19 cases in the US have been trending lower for new daily cases along with vaccines continuing to roll are both great news. It is also earnings season so there has been lots of news both supportive and negative for many companies as any positive COVID-19 news seems to be the biggest overall market mover.

Insurance
Remember that this month is important for revenue-based insurance averages so it will be important to keep an eye on the markets even if you do not plan on making any sales. As of the close on 2/4 the price for corn is $4.4937 and soybeans are $11.5525.

February USDA Report
Reminder to keep an eye on the USDA report on Tuesday the 9th. This report historically has not contained as many surprises but with the recent Chinese demand we may see another update of the expected ending stocks and exports. We are expecting Tuesday’s report to be a market mover.

Weekly Prices


Via Barchart.com

29 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: January 17 – 29

Corn gained on the week as it made up for the fall to end last week. Export numbers continued to be strong and Brazil’s harvest has faced delays. A huge corn sale to China announced Tuesday morning was welcome news as well as record ethanol bookings into China through ADM helped.  This looks to continue into the spring as Brazil is struggling with their pace of shipping as well as the harvest delays. US corn is still very competitive pricing on the world stage which is also supportive. This is important because it keeps exports going as demand continues to ramp up around the world as well as when there is a selloff by the funds it is a buying opportunity for other countries. The volatility of the last week has been important to keep an eye on as we have seen some wide ranges traded within one day. As we have seen some big run ups in a day, we have also seen fund selling to bring it back down. As you can see in the chart below the intraday range over the last week has been larger compared to how we got here. As flooding continues to cause harvest delays in Brazil, mostly in beans, this will be important to keep an eye over the next few weeks heading into corn harvest.

Via Barchart

 

Soybeans lost again this week with most of the losses coming from last Friday’s sell off and have seen a good bounce back from the low of $12.98 Monday morning. The flooding in Brazil has caused delays and other issues with bean harvest. Despite large exports the past week the early rallies on Thursday fell through to losses on the day closing below the 20 day moving average. Funds have been selling on the recent rallies which, like today, may continue to be the trend as funds take profit on this impressive run. The outlook has remained bullish as fundamentally the demand is still there and South America’s struggles may continue hurting their yield. Argentina’s crop condition is below 20% good/excellent and last year it was at 70% this time last year to shed some light on how much their crop is struggling. China will need to continue buying any dip down caused by fund selling but if they stop and funds sell the immediate support of sales would disappear. After this run up a pause and drawback may have been needed as we await South America’s harvest but how the month/week ends will be critically important heading into February.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow lost on the week amongst a lot of volatility (I’m not going to get into the whole GME, AMC, etc drama). Vaccines continue to roll out as states struggle to implement their vaccination strategies while on the federal side the government is trying to get states more so they can ramp up a somewhat dysfunctional rollout. Despite the struggles the good news is we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Many investors are bullish for 2021 as we come out of a year long lockdown while some still think we are due for a correction at some point.

January USDA Report
The RCM Ag team had a roundtable discussion following the January USDA report. Here are the links to view/listen to it on your platform of choice.

 

Weekly Prices

21 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Soybeans, USDA Report rcmagserv 0 comment

HARVEST MARKET UPDATES: JANUARY 16-22

Corn was pretty flat on the week dropping only 1 cent in the March contract. As the weather in South America had no surprises and exports continued at a good pace there was not much to move the market overall despite a couple volatile days mixed in there. The underlying fundamentals did not change and the swings were brought on moslty from the managed money side. There was some rain over last week and some added to Argentina looking out a couple weeks but as we know weather that far out is hard to predict. IHS Markit updated their projected acres for 2021 to 94.2 million which is 3.4 million above the 2020 acreage. This would definitely be bearish new crop corn (Dec ’21) prices but there is a long way to go to be able to actually plant that many acres. After corn’s run up it is hard to tell if this week was a needed pause to asses where we are or a top. If you have not thought about marketing your ’21 crop yet we highly suggest coming up with a plan now as this run up in prices may not last forever and you do not want to miss out on profitable selling opportunities (see where we were this time in 2020 vs where we were May-Aug). The pullback may continue as funds begin offloading contracts but exports this week were strong so the fundamentals remain supportive.


Via Barchart

 

Soybeans took it on the chin this week for their first sizeable pullback since early December. The underlying fundamentals, like corn, have not changed in the last week. Most of the pullback came from follow through selling by speculative funds. The loses were greater this week before bouncing back as the intraday low on Wednesday was $13.52. IHS Markit projected US soybean acreage for 2021 to be 90.1 million which would be 7 million more than 2020. This is a bearish number if it is realized but is also not surprising when bean prices right now make them very attractive. Brazil’s crop keeps shrinking but they also planted the most acres ever this year, so they are still on track for a near record crop. Everyone will keep a close eye on South American production as the influence on our prices continues. If you still have beans and have not sold during the rally thinking they are going higher we suggest selling the physical and consider a re-ownership on paper strategy if you want to be long. Prices kept falling on Friday as funds continue to liquidate despite strong exports. When funds are as long as they have been we expected them to take profit at some point but it will need to slow down for the bullish fundamental news to direct the market again.


Via Barchart

 

Cotton had a solid boost this week as the bullish trend keeps on rolling. A weak dollar, as mentioned before, has been very supportive of commodities in general but especially cotton. As demand around the world ramps back up cotton has benefited from international demand, from countries like China, as they are coming out of the pandemic. With this world demand there are shipping concerns as Covid continues to be a problem in the US as ports struggle to contain breakouts. Ultimately when there are bottlenecks in the supply chain it frustrates everyone but will pinch balance sheets for end users when they pay more to get the cotton delivered.


Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow gained on the week with Joe Biden’s inauguration coming and going without incident. As investors start to get a better idea of what the Biden administration will look like and what they look to do with regulation and taxes the next month will be important for investors. Most analysts are bullish looking at 2021 as vaccine distribution continues to roll out and we begin to look at the world after lockdowns from Covid are no longer needed. One thing that Biden has made apparent is he wants to switch towards cleaner energy throughout the country and already halted the Keystone Pipeline construction on day 1.

USDA Report

The RCM Ag team had a roundtable discussion following last week’s USDA report on our new podcast, The Hedged Edge. Here are the links to view/listen to it on your platform of choice.

 

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart

21 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Meats, Podcast, Research, Soybeans, USDA Report rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Update: January USDA Report

In this monthly segment on The Hedged Edge, RCM Ag Services pros Jody Lawrence, Ron Lawson, Kevin Bost, and host Jeff Eizenberg come together to provide expert knowledge on important markets including cotton, meat, and grains following the USDA Report. Watch the whole episode below!

 

If you’d rather listen – click on the links below to find your preferred platform:

15 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Harvest Market Updates: Jan 9 – 15

Corn had a huge boost this week as the USDA reported the US yield to be 172 bu/acre. This was a 3.8 bu/acre decrease from the Nov report that nobody was expecting. The average trade estimate heading into the report was 175.3 bu/acre, so this surprise played a large role in why corn was limit up following the report. This number is low when you think about the past several years of yields and the fact the USDA had estimated the crop to be 181.8 bu/acre in the August report. Now we had some weather events that caused damage to large areas of crops and a drier August, but not to the point that would cause a 9.8 bushel decrease. So, the drastic change over the last few months is a head scratcher, but the USDA does usually leave us with more questions than answers. The USDA also lowered both US and World ending stocks showing why corn has been going up over the past few months, less corn in the world than expected. US ending stocks were lowered from 1.702 billion bushels to 1.552 billion and world ending stocks were lowered from 288.96 billion bushels to 283.83 billion. Tightening ending stocks played a major role in the harvest to now rally in corn and will continue to play a role as all eyes will turn to South America and their corn crop. If their crop begins to struggle or comes out smaller than anticipated this will begin to push new crop ’21 prices up as farmers make their decisions on what to grow in 2021.


Via Barchart

 

Soybeans continue to go higher as March beans topped $14 this week. Like corn, the report was bullish for soybeans. The USDA pegged yield at 50.2 bu/acre after dropping them ½ bu/acre from the December report. They also raised exports and use while cutting ending stocks adding to the bullish news. Soybean’s news the last few months has been bullish as South America oversold their last crop and are now importing US beans on top of the picked-up demand from China. The USDA also lowered the production for South America from 183 million metric tons to 180.6 MMT. With the current South America weather problems (dryness) this number could continue to go down which would keep the weather as one of the bullish factors pushing the market higher. With Chinese demand continuing along with the imports into South America until their harvest, we will continue to see demand support the market. As always with this time of year pay attention to South American production numbers/weather as changes in those will also have major impacts on our markets.

Via Barchart

 

Wheat followed corn up after the report this week as there were no major changes to wheat. The news from the report was that the winter wheat seedings report increased for the first time in 8 years. All wheat acres were 31.991 million acres, up 1.576 million from last year. This was also slightly higher than the trade estimate. The Dec stocks number was not much of a surprise as it came in at 1.674 billion bushels. On the supply and demand side, supply was left unchanged while seed usage was raised slightly by 1 million bushels and feed usage raised by 25 million. This lead to a 26 million bushel reduction in the ending stocks , overall friendly for the market. As you can see in the chart below, despite the Nov dip the March chart is still bullish looking back to the contract lows in June.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow has remained pretty flat over the last week as impeachment of President Trump hasn’t been a market mover with president elect Biden set to take office in one week. As vaccine rollouts continue to be slower than hoped for, states begin to ramp up their next phase to non-healthcare workers. Governor Cuomo has now come out against another round of lockdowns but we will see what the Biden administration has in store in the next two weeks.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart

08 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Harvest Market Updates: January 2-8


Corn continues its run up and briefly traded over $5 this week. Corn and beans charts look very similar as you can see below as corn has followed beans. What I mean is bean news moves the markets more so than corn right now as exports for both to China (and others) have been steady for a while now with some surprises from time to time. China announced this week their intention to plant more corn acres this year and expand ethanol production, but with Chinese corn still at around $10 it will be hard for them to make any major waves quickly. With South American weather continuing to be dry in the big picture this should keep SA from producing a huge crop. Old crop corn prices are strong but new crop Dec ’21 continues to lag and will ultimately depend on the South American crop and planted acres before we see any big movement. Keep an eye on the Jan USDA report that comes out the 12th for any change in news.

Via Barchart


Soybeans have had a great last couple months as they continue to run up and get over $13.50. As South America continues their dry outlook into the summer in the southern hemisphere. Argentina has a really good chance for wide sweeping rain next week but returns to dry after that. As South American weather still looks to be problem it will continue to be supportive of beans. With good exports again this week and weather issues in SA the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Brazil has now started importing soybeans from the US as well as China and will continue to do so until harvest. With this runup we still see down days and even sizeable downward movements, this usually will stem from profit taking until we see fundamentals change. With soybean prices where they are this will lead to farmers switching over some acres which will be an important talking point heading into the spring. We continue the view of selling all of your ’20 crop and not paying for storage to take advantage of these prices. If you do not want to miss out on any further movement higher we suggest at looking at re-ownership on board if it fits your risk level.

Via Barchart


Cotton has seen a nice bump higher as we have gotten into the 80s for several trading days. Cotton may benefit the most from the weaker dollar more so than grains. US cotton is still cheaper than cotton in China (even with cost of delivery) so this should keep the US product competitive and sought after. With the outlook of 2021 moving out of the pandemic with vaccines, demand will rise for all textiles but cotton mills will ramp back up in India and China the most. March cotton chart is below.

Via Barchart


Dow Jones
The Dow has gained over the last few weeks as investors have gotten a better look as to what the next 4 year will look like as both Georgia senate seats went to the Democrats. Many experts think that moderate Dems will be the most important over the next 4 years as they will not vote completely on party lines and prevent any drastic changes. However, it will be important to keep an eye on the markets as we get closer to the Biden administration taking over as investors look to avoid new taxes.

US Dollar
The dollar has continued to stay low and may head lower. This is supportive of US commodities in the world market and would help exports in the big picture.

Via Barchart.com

23 Dec 2020
Agriculture, Corn, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast rcmagserv 0 comment

Acing Agriculture with Dr. Scott Irwin

For the commodity world, 2020 has been particularly interesting. Between stimulus packages and China buying pullback, to ramping up production and setting up for a potential big comeback in 2021 it feels like we’ve been living through a game of ping pong. So to review it all – plus give some insight into 2021 – we’ve brought Dr. Scott Irwin on to go through it all. Dr. Scott Irwin is chair of the Agricultural Marketing in the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana. Scott is a national and international leader in the field of agricultural economics. His research on agricultural markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and is in high demand among market participants, policymakers, and the media. In today’s episode, we’re talking about 2021 and beyond, game changers in the ag market, Chinese demand, the USDA report, University of Illinois program, and FarmDoc.

 

 

Follow along with Scott on Twitter and LinkedIn and check out FarmDoc.

And last but not least, don’t forget to subscribe to The Hedged Edge on your preferred platform, and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer

21 Dec 2020
Agriculture, Corn, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: December 12 – 19

Corn followed beans up this week as exports continue to roll. China continues to be a buyer of US corn and continued La Nina weather in South America are helping pull prices up. Corn will continue to go as soybeans go (as usual) so any positive soybean news is also supportive for corn prices. There continues to be upside in the market as fundamentals continue to bullish with the downside being a change in weather for South America. Corn has been slow and steady and will continue to be with exports being the main news.

Via Barchart

 

Soybeans finally broke through the $12 mark this week as world demand continues to drive prices. China potentially switching bean cargoes from Brazil to the US on shipping delay concerns (Argentina port workers strike) were supportive news as well as continued South American weather concerns. Southern Brazil and Argentina look to be dry into the end of the year while the rest of Brazil will get enough rain to keep it steady. As exports continue to be strong and on the high end of expectations it does not look like bean demand is going anywhere. Bean sales have reached 90% of the annual USDA forecast with 8 ½ months left in the reporting year. Until South American harvest gets rolling US beans look to continue to benefit from the export demand. With the magic $12 threshold being past we could see this run continue.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow gained on the week as vaccines rolled out across the country while the current COVID wave is seeing new records every day. Congress continues to negotiate a stimulus bill as the year comes to a close. Many investors see 2021 as ripe for growth and still think there is time to get in to take advantage of a post Covid-19 US even if you missed the run up to 30,000 from the March lows.

Crude Oil
Crude Oil has rallied back to pre-lockdown numbers this week as it got back to $49/barrel. As fuel consumption has slowly been growing a second round of lockdowns could lead to over supply problems if drilling is also not cut back.

US Dollar
The US dollar has continued to fall as it is again seeing value not seen sine early 2018. A low USD helps commodity prices and cotton more so than others as we have seen cotton’s recent run up.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart

17 Dec 2020
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Market Updates, Meats, Podcast rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: December USDA/WASDE Report

In this monthly segment on The Hedged Edge, RCM Ag Services pros Jody Lawrence, Ron Lawson, Kevin Bost, and host Jeff Eizenberg come together to provide expert knowledge on important markets including cotton, meat, and grains following the USDA Report.

During today’s episode we’re talking about reporting back from farmers on the recent USDA report, labor shortfalls,  taxes and tariffs, commodity price inflation, adjusting planting intentions, feed prices affecting hog/cattle prices, calorie reports, corn vs beans,  and more from the report and looking towards the end of 2020.

 

 

Find the full episode links below:

 

Disclaimer

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