RCM Ag Services

Category: Agriculture

04 May 2026
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Lumber futures are choppy and directionless

Recap:

Lumber futures are choppy and directionless, basically mirroring a housing market stuck in neutral. From the builders to distribution, the game plan is to contain losses.

  • The macro housing backdrop is decisively neutral. Existing‑home sales are weak, first‑time buyers are sidelined, inventory is improving only marginally, and mortgage rates remain a headwind—not a catalyst. Nothing here supports sustained upside, but nothing forces a full reset either.

  • Technically, May futures have found support near $570, helped this time by available EFPs, which are pulling buyers back into futures on a hand‑to‑mouth basis. The weekly wedge keeps tightening, suggesting a breakout window approaching into May expiration, though timing remains tricky without a catalyst.

Bottom line:
Futures are doing exactly what a neutral market does—failing rallies, finding buyers on weakness, and chopping traders to death. Until affordability actually improves or demand breaks meaningfully, this remains a range of trade driven more by structure and discounts than by confidence. Add to it that the industry likes the long side, and the funds continue to sell confirm more of the same.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

27 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week

Recap:

The futures trade was dominated by the roll last week. That said, it made a new contract low and then rallied. We saw that pattern a week earlier—and frankly, we’ve seen some version of it for nearly two years now. Rallies continue to lack momentum, fail quickly, and ultimately find themselves testing new lows.

A technician put it best last week: these trends are neither bullish nor bearish—they’re bullshit. There’s no trend, no follow‑through, and no conviction.

The broader economic backdrop for housing remains decisively neutral, and neutral markets have a nasty habit of killing their own rallies without outside help. That’s exactly where we sit today.

So, let’s look at a few housing headlines for more color.

Housing Headlines 

• Existing home sales remain sluggish.
March existing‑home sales fell 3.6% month‑over‑month to an annualized pace just under 4.0 million units, the weakest March pace since 2009. Sales declined in all four regions, underscoring just how little organic momentum exists in the market. [markets.bu…nsider.com]

Existing home sales are projected to stay in line with 23-24 and 25. Without a rate cut expect slow sales and low inventories.

 The macro effect:

“This has caused multifamily executives to lower their expectations for total 2026 multifamily sales volume and starts.”

• First‑time buyers are effectively sidelined.
First‑time buyers accounted for only 21% of transactions, a record low and well under the historical norm near 40%. The market is increasingly split between equity‑rich owners and would‑be entrants who simply can’t make the math work. [crosscount…rtgage.com] Can’t make it work…. nice.

From NAR, first time home buyers fell to a record low. They made up only 21%. That group was always in the high 30 percentile.

• Inventory is improving—but not enough to matter .
Active listings are rising year over year, and months’ supply has crept above four months, technically closer to “balanced.” But inventory is still well below pre‑pandemic norms, offering just enough supply to cap prices—not enough to stimulate volume. [mortgagetech.ice.com]

• Prices refuse to break—only flatten.
Despite weaker sales, median prices continue to grind higher on a year‑over‑year basis, driven by limited supply and locked‑in owners. Zillow expects roughly flat price appreciation in 2026, reinforcing the idea of a capped, sideways market rather than a corrective one. [zillow.com]

Builders I work with are staying on course and keeping production at the planned 2026 amount. “Head down and grind ahead” seemed to be the common theme.

• Mortgage rates remain a headwind, not a catalyst.
Rates dipped briefly below 6% earlier this year, but volatility tied to macro uncertainty pushed them back toward the mid‑6% range. That swing was enough to choke off affordability gains but not enough to force capitulation selling. [cnbc.com]

To sum it up:

There’s nothing here that argues for sustained upside—and nothing ugly enough to force a structural reset. Housing is stuck in neutral, and lumber reflects that reality perfectly. Rallies fail because they’re supposed to. Weakness finds buyers because costs, supply, and discounts still matter.

Until affordability actually improves or demand meaningfully breaks—this remains a market that chops itself to death, one failed rally at a time. It bothers me every time we use the affordability excuse. The is more fundamental issues involved.

Technical:

The May contract has found support in the $570 area. The fact that there are EFP’s available this time has brought the buyers back to the futures market at a price. This hand to mouth environment tends to magnify deals. Today it is in futures.

The starts projection is for 1.38. Permits are 1.39.

The weekly wedge pattern keeps getting tighter. The breakout looks to be a few weeks from now. May expiration could be interesting.

20 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week

Recap:

Futures experienced a very quiet, trendless trade last week. Many are pointing to the Montreal gathering as the culprit, but it’s questionable whether any meaningful movement would have materialized regardless. May finished the week up $6, though total volume remained light throughout.

The only notable development came from the Commitment of Traders report, which showed another sizable jump in producer longs alongside a further increase in fund shorts. Overall, the best way to describe last week’s trade is simply uneventful.

The futures market managed to hold above a new low on this move, suggesting there is still underlying demand working its way through the pipeline. Given how firmly JIT buying is entrenched, that tension is always present, but today there appears to be a distinctly more spring‑like tone.

Much of the futures buying remains hedge‑related, with pending business waiting to surface. How and when that demand ultimately flows into the market is still uncertain. The key takeaway is that the marketplace continues to wrestle with supply concerns. Many remain uneasy that even a modest uptick in demand could quickly tighten conditions. For now, buyers are paying more than they’ve grown accustomed to.

Technical:

The reality of this trade is that for the past three years the market has needed an “event” to break it out of its narrow range and today is no different. There is still no data pointing to a meaningful pickup in demand. For futures to move materially higher, it would take a rally strong enough to trigger fund short covering.

With projected construction activity for Q2 and Q3 holding steady, there is little justification for a sharp selloff either. That said, if the algos or the funds lean back into the short side, prices could fall quickly. They don’t measure value — they simply sell.

The futures market saw a sharp selloff in February, followed by a solid recovery in March, though prices remained below the February highs. April is now showing signs of drifting back toward those February lows. As this illustrates, the market continues to trace a slow, uneven stair‑step lower. Historically, that type of pattern has been proven unreliable.

This may end up being a period where the cash market holds firm, while long futures hedges continue to take the brunt of the pressure.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

17 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 2 – 17

Corn spent the start of April grinding lower, posting a fourth consecutive weekly loss by April 10th as the April WASDE reinforced a burdensome supply narrative. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks essentially unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, the highest in seven years, and global stocks came in above trade expectations at 294.81 million metric tons. A two week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, announced April 7th, removed much of the war premium that had propped up prices since March, as easing Strait of Hormuz concerns pulled crude oil sharply lower and dragged corn along with it. July futures slid to a fresh four-week low near $4.40, completing a nearly 62% retracement from the March 9th highs. The past week saw stabilization and a modest recovery. Faster than expected planting progress, U.S. corn planting reached 5% completion as of April 13th, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, combined with firming eastern Corn Belt basis and Mexico securing a large forward purchase of 12.4 million bushels helped steady sentiment. The old crop market remains locked in a congestion zone between $4.45 and $4.55 on May futures, with the 200-day moving average serving as key support. Speculators have been trimming their long positions aggressively, as shown in the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders reports, leaving the market less vulnerable to a large liquidation event but also with less upside fuel until a fresh catalyst emerges as money allocators reposition to the equity markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have largely remained in a sideways grind, trading between $11.50 and $11.83 on July futures for most of the last 2 weeks. The April WASDE showed U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels with adjustments netting to zero, crush estimates raised while exports were trimmed by the same amount. The season-average price forecast was nudged 10 cents higher to $10.30 per bushel. Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 soybean production estimate again, this time to 6.582 billion bushels, keeping the global supply backdrop heavy and capping any sustained rallies. On the positive side, strong domestic crush margins, board crush pushing above $3 per bushel, have been the primary support story for the complex. NOPA March crush is expected to come in well above year-ago levels when reported. U.S. planting progress debuted at 6% complete as of April 13th, ahead of the 2% five-year average, with Mississippi and Tennessee leading at 39% and 36%, respectively. The market is waiting for a significant new headline to break out of the current range. Talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi, which were delayed amid the Iran conflict, remain a key watch item as any resumption of Chinese buying interest could quickly change the demand narrative for U.S. soybeans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has done better the last couple of weeks, with Kansas City HRW futures rallying on the back of deteriorating U.S. crop conditions and persistent drought in the Southern Plains. USDA’s April 14th crop progress report showed just 34% of the winter wheat crop rated good-to-excellent, down a full 13 percentage points from a year ago, with 32% of the crop rated poor or very poor. Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remained in severe to extreme drought, and the recent widespread rain systems have largely missed the driest areas. Concerns about the long-term fertilizer supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have added a structural premium, with funds holding a record long position in spring wheat and a growing net long in Kansas City HRW. July HRW futures jumped nearly 20 cents on April 14th alone, reaching their highest settlement since March 31st at $6.36. Chicago SRW July futures also pushed above $6.00. The market sold off modestly to end the week but held the bulk of its gains. Longer-range forecasts suggest late April could bring more favorable moisture to parts of the Plains, which could temper upside. For now, weather, drought maps, and the weekly crop condition ratings are the primary price drivers.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have moved from deep stress to new record highs over this two-week stretch, tracking the Iran ceasefire developments closely. When Trump announced the two-week pause in operations on April 7th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,325 points, its best single session since April 2025, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5% to 6,782. Through the balance of the period, stocks continued recovering as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a lasting peace deal, with the S&P 500 recouping all losses accumulated since the start of the conflict. The run to new highs has been impressive with the NASDAQ having a positive day for 14 straight days.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to be volatile over the past couple of weeks but the news of ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While the cease-fire does not mean the conflict is over, if good news continues to come out of Washington oil prices will fall. The ceasefire dynamics have already meaningfully reduced fertilizer cost fears and energy-linked inflation expectations.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton has been one of the most compelling commodity stories of the period, with July futures pushing to a nearly two-year high and new crop cotton reaching $0.80 in the Dec contract. The move has been supported by a combination of bullish factors: elevated crude oil prices increasing polyester production costs and driving synthetic fiber substitution back toward natural cotton, a weaker U.S. dollar, and persistent drought in key U.S. growing regions stretching from the Texas Panhandle westward. The USDA April WASDE raised global production by 900,000 bales while also lifting consumption by 560,000 bales, leaving the net balance slightly tightened.
  • USDA’s April WASDE raised the season-average farm price for wheat 5 cents to $5.00/bu, corn 5 cents to $4.15/bu, and soybeans 10 cents to $10.30/bu.
  • The Trump administration called out fertilizer giant Mosaic for idling two Brazilian plants, with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden publicly questioning the timing as global fertilizer supplies face war-related disruptions.
  • A new survey found that only 60% of U.S. corn farmers have secured their nitrogen needs for the 2026 crop year, a reflection of the input cost uncertainty created by the Iran conflict.
  • Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2025/26 total corn crop estimate to 139.6 MMT (5.5 billion bushels), maintaining a heavy Southern Hemisphere supply backdrop.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

13 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Futures finished the week down $21

Recap:

Futures finished the week down $21. One notable development was in the COT report showing an increase of 924 industry longs. That puts the long hedge position at roughly 1,600 cars. That represents a meaningful amount of protection in place and should help dampen anxiety during periods of volatility. At the same time, short funds added 595 contracts, remaining committed to the lumber futures trade.

In a low-volume environment, positioning matters. The industry is actively managing risk by using futures to step away from the daily cash-market grind, while the funds continue to stay with a trade that has worked. Who is hedged—and who is pressing—will matter more as liquidity thins.

Unlike the October/Now NAWLA meetings, which often end with traders going gangbusters, the Montreal convention usually goes out with more of a whimper. That is largely seasonal. As the calendar turns toward May, near‑term needs begin to fade, and most buyers have already covered requirements for a while. The shift toward JIT purchasing changed that dynamic somewhat, but only at the margins.

In short, the discount should cap the selloff, but the overall tone suggests the market is waiting for the next buy program to emerge.

 

Technical:

Momentum indicators are negative. The futures market is struggling to keep them positive. What I have noticed is that the trendlines are trending lower. The market is walking the support and resistance lines down each cycle. Each time futures trade above the resistance line, it is followed by a sharp break. Today, the industry is using those breaks to hedge future needs. It becomes an efficient derivative tool, and that creates neutrality.

 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

06 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: THE FATIGUE FACTOR

Recap:

The fatigue factor. A lumber cycle only has so much life. An upcycle runs about 15 sessions before needs are met. A down cycle tends to last longer. The consumption factors are slow-moving, causing a longer lag until the next buy. Last week, we saw futures making what I would call a triple top and then failing. It was a sign of fatigue. The cash market is also struggling to keep up momentum. It is too early to call for a change in cycle direction, but it does give a reason to hedge a little. 

We are starting each week with the same fundamental issue: trying to predict the macro trend. It is easy to say that we are in an upcycle in the micro picture, but we haven’t been able to call the macro down cycle finished. We are fence-sitting, poised for higher prices caused by less supply, not better demand. Consistent data shows less supplies coming out of Canada. It would not take much to put us in an undersupplied market. A slight downtick in rates would start to set it up. Today, the market has the war and crude to contend with. All other factors are pushed to the sidelines. The fact that housing inventories are at a high level and rates are grinding higher will keep construction in check.  

What is troubling is that since last July, every upcycle has made a lower high.  This comes at a time when production out of Canada is being reduced. This fact, more than any other, highlights the affordability issue. Demand is flat. There is never enough of an increase in sales to bring about an uptick in construction. The 2026 plans remain in place.

Trading:

The supply issue has caused the JIT buyer to chase the market. The rule is to carry inventory in a supply-driven market.

The demand issue warrants hedging of the excess inventories. No one today will do a $30 basis trade, but if futures go to a discount, the true basis is higher. We believe that the underbought condition of the housing sector should firm our trading range up, but the rules are to be hedged in a downcycle regardless. 

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

02 Apr 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Education, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 20 – APRIL 2

Corn has remained supported but volatile following the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, which reinforced a tighter-than-expected balance sheet narrative. The USDA came out with 95.338 million acres, near the lower end of trade expectations, confirming earlier concerns that higher input costs, particularly fertilizer due to war in Iran, would limit corn expansion, while stocks data did not show burdensome supplies. This has helped underpin prices despite sluggish export demand and limited Chinese participation, keeping the market more focused on supply risk than demand weakness. Combined with continued strength in energy markets and inflation-driven fund interest, corn remains in a supportive environment, though the large speculative long position leaves it vulnerable to sharp downside if macro sentiment shifts.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled to find sustained strength even after the March 31st USDA reports, which confirmed expectations for increased U.S. acreage and relatively comfortable stocks levels. The larger planting outlook reinforces the idea of ample new crop supplies, especially when paired with ongoing pressure from South America’s record production. While periodic rallies have been driven by energy market spillover and inflation concerns, the lack of consistent export demand, particularly from China, and fading optimism around biofuel policy have kept the market defensive. Overall, the USDA data solidified a more bearish supply outlook, leaving soybeans reliant on external market strength rather than supportive fundamentals. Talks between president Trump and China’s president Xi will be watched under a microscope if they end up happening after already being delayed with the conflict in Iran continuing.

Via Barchart

Energy Markets

Energy markets have continued to dominate the macro landscape, with crude oil holding elevated and volatile levels as geopolitical tensions involving Iran persist and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The sustained strength in energy has amplified inflation concerns globally, driving investment flows into commodities and influencing planting decisions, input costs, and overall sentiment across agricultural markets.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets have remained under pressure since late March, as the combination of higher energy prices and the inflationary implications highlighted in recent economic data have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The indexes continues to reflect a risk-off environment, with concerns centered on slowing economic growth, tighter margins from rising input costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty overshadowing otherwise stable underlying economic conditions.

Via Barchart

Other News

– Cotton acres in the prospective plantings report were 9.64 million for 2026, a 4% increase from last year.

– All wheat acres from the report were 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

30 Mar 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: A futures reversal summed up last week’s trade

Recap:

A futures reversal summed up last week’s trade. We came into the week on a positive note, with trade becoming more fluid. Monday’s fat-finger debacle ended that quickly, and it took the rest of the week just to claw back half of the move.

The cash market told a different story from futures. Trade was solid throughout the week, with strength across most species; only spruce lagged. SYP continues to move higher in sizable increments, and I would expect Spruce to begin catching some of that enthusiasm. While higher rates and crude prices remain headwinds, the market’s attention today is squarely on supply and demand. Improving weather conditions should also help bring a few buyers back into the market.

Technical:

Monday’s selloff did some damage, pulling the market back into the March expiration area. As a result, May’s technical structure has reverted to early‑March levels, effectively nullifying the upcycle that had been forming. From here, the levels are well defined. A close back above the old high of 614.50 would restore upward momentum and put the market back on a positive trajectory. Conversely, a close below 582.00 would signal a technical reversal and shift the near‑term bias lower.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

23 Mar 2026
Agriculture, CME, Education, Futures, Hedging, Housing, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: Did it turn into a battle when it should have been a rout?

Recap:

Did it turn into a battle when it should have been a rout? The cash market is very active with less supply. Things are tight, and some mills are OTM for a day. We are where we expected to be except for the issue of $100 crude. No one could have projected it. Without the Iran issue futures would be $50 higher and blowing out the funds, but instead we have to scratch and claw for a few bucks. The question today is if we missed the acceleration move or not?  We have the rally but now can we get the run?

Crude is becoming “more of the same.” It isn’t going back down, but the likelihood of larger crude restriction is lessening every day. In the same vein, the US has made clear that higher crude is a small price to pay. The end result,  a long drawn out fight sending the spec longs in crude elsewhere. That begins more of the same.

So, what does the battle look like?

The Tight Market:

Companies large and small are using the same strategy of limiting Cap X to keep costs down in 2026. Inventory is the largest cost so cut it and you cut costs. Sound economics to me except for the fact that when your business is a commodity, you need that commodity to remain in business. What we saw last week was a push by many firms to at least fill in.

It is spring. We see a natural tightness to the market every year. Demand numbers are already set. It becomes a time to buy.

The Demand Struggle:

The housing data is weak. New and existing home sales have pulled back even with the multiplier. Months of inventories are up sharply. Even Canadian starts are projected to be off for the next few years.

There are two debates going of when the housing market became broken. The first was the obvious 2008. Many economists believe that by the mid-teens that problem was fixed. They believe that it again happened after 2018 when the housing market broke and never recovered. We are talking about the typical economic forces, not covid, etc. My point is that in either case we had an employment fear for the first time home buyer. Today, looking at the projection of a 30% unemployment rate for new graduates, I would say nothing has changed since 08. Employment and employment sentiment are the key drivers, not rates, not affordability, just employment.

Finally, open interest continues to erode. We are seeing a sharp drop in industry longs as the market rallies. COT showed a 898 decrease while the fund shorts exited 588. The industry is putting money in the back. The funds are forced to lighten up with large rallies. It is true textbook trading.

 

Technical:

I can’t say this very often, but the technicals are neutral at best when the fundamentals are strong. Another lower session will force a cross of a few oscillators to negative. This isn’t a sell signal as they tend to go back and forth before it becomes a sell signal.

The focus is on 618.50. The market needs a close over it. On Friday the high was 614.50. We are very close to gaining some momentum again. I believe it is going on for 5 weeks that 618.50 was the objective. The hitters are getting tired and the winds are blowing in. We need to get through it this week.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Southern Yellow Pine:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html

The Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

 

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

bleonard@rcmam.com

312-761-263

20 Mar 2026
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Fertilizer, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 3 – 20

Corn has transitioned from early-week weakness into a volatile but constructive rally, driven far more by macro forces than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. Since the start of the Iran conflict, rising crude oil and diesel prices have injected inflation-driven buying into the grain complex, helping corn recover from Monday’s sharp losses and push higher into the end of the week. At the same time, the market is actively weighing the real impact of elevated input costs, particularly nitrogen, which could pull U.S. planted acreage below key thresholds near 94 million acres and provide longer-term support. However, that bullish narrative is being offset by softer export demand, limited Chinese participation, and concerns that high freight costs could further hinder competitiveness. With speculative funds now holding a large and increasingly crowded long position, corn remains technically supported but vulnerable to sharp corrections, especially if energy markets stabilize or geopolitical tensions ease.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been the most volatile market of the complex, starting with a dramatic limit-down selloff early in the week tied to delayed U.S.-China trade talks and fading optimism around biofuel policy, before rebounding alongside strength in crude oil and the broader commodity space. Despite the recovery, the underlying fundamentals remain more bearish relative to corn, with record South American production, ongoing harvest pressure, and expectations for increased U.S. soybean acreage (potentially 85–86+ million acres) all weighing on the outlook. The earlier optimism around Chinese demand has cooled significantly, and with funds still holding a sizable position even after liquidation, rallies may continue to be sold. While inflation-driven money flow has provided temporary support, soybeans appear to be on more fragile footing, particularly if energy markets lose momentum or if acreage shifts materialize as expected this spring.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Over the past two weeks, equity markets have come under increasing pressure as investors grapple with the inflationary shock driven by surging energy prices and escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Early in the period, equities found brief support from a pullback in crude oil and optimism around global trade discussions, but that strength quickly faded as oil resumed its rally and inflation data came in hotter than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen sharply, shedding roughly 1,200+ points from recent highs and pushing to multi-month lows, as fears of a prolonged period of elevated fuel costs raise the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Energy markets had been volatile as the Straight of Hormuz remains closed with the war in Iran continuing.
  • Inflation is heating up a little but as energy prices surge, it causes ripples across the entire supply chain.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor. With planting starting later this spring, we need rain in a lot of places in March.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

 

Disclaimer

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