Market Updates Archives - Page 8 of 23

13 Mar 2023

Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question

Recap:

Last week I led off with how bad should bad look? Here are two responses from the question. The first is “there is a massive new home neighborhood going up next to a 40 acre reload full of Euro wood. The other was “for the first time, housing isn’t leading the shit show.” Very eloquent economic summaries. What we saw last week was a very quiet sideways futures market exhibiting some of those characteristics. The sideways trade was not a building of a trend but a sign of confusion and fear. No one is making a call one way or another at this price. If you look at the cash market, no one is making a call at any price. Historically that is friendly at some point. Let’s do the math.

Since the Fed speak turned up in February of 2022 the futures market has fallen over 76% from the 1477 high. During that same period, crude fell from $130 to $75 and corn from $8.27 to $6.26. All three commodity markets and most others have felt the effects of the raising of rates. Lumber, unlike the other markets, has pulled back close to its historic norm while all others have not. Is this price indicating a harder bottom coming? Considering the lead time needed in this industry it may take till Q4 of 23 or Q1 of 24 to answer.

Macro: The housing market does not bottom out until rates top.

The micro picture has many other dynamics. I think all would agree that these prices are not good for any producer. That fact alone will cause a slowdown in production. It is already in process. We see it in BC shipments and reports from eastern and southern mills. What is hard to determine is where the number was pre-Fed. While production is getting cut it may be from a 1.7 starts equivalent number. If we took the number from 1.7 to 1.4 then we are still over producing. The market needs to see a production number set for 1.2 starts and an erosion of Euro imports. Then we will have a market again.

Micro: Slowing production will cause upward spikes in prices.

The trade for 2023 will be the basis and the best form of protection will be forward pricing. It won’t be a year of making $15,000 on a truck. It’s back to futures 101. That said, build a fence around your risk. You have banks blowing up and many other created ramifications from the spike in rates. A basis trade needs calls against it. Forward pricing needs puts.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

10 Mar 2023

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crop Insurance, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 24 – MARCH 10

The last 2 weeks have not been friendly to corn despite a neutral to bullish USDA report this week. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 40 mmt, but the crop could still be smaller amid a historically poor weather year in Argentina. Corn took a nosedive to end the month of February and has taken another leg lower this week, with the new crop hitting $5.50. After a flat trade for most of February the move lower presents farmers with important decisions regarding what to do for crop insurance. With the Feb average price of $5.91, 40ish cents higher than current levels, farmers should seriously look at the highest level of revenue protection you can get. The premiums will likely be high, but the recent price movement has created an uncertain environment with a long way to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower again this week after rebounding last week as soybeans have held together better than corn. Bean stocks were tighter than the trade expected while exports were up 25 mbu but crush down 10 mbu. Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and stocks. Like for corn, the USDA lowered Argentina’s production below the average trade estimate. While the news out of the report was mildly bullish, the negativity around corn and wheat bled into beans to end the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton was punched in the mouth on Friday after trading lower this week. The USDA did not make any significant changes to the supply and demand report. The lack of demand is the main problem as the global 22/23 forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade with higher production and stocks. The world economic outlook is questionable for the coming year and a global recession would hurt cotton more than other areas.

Via Barchart

Wheat

The story for wheat has not changed as markets continue to get crushed. The report made no major changes to forecasts and balance sheets and there has not been any major changes in Ukraine as Russia continues their assault. Russian officials are expected to meet with UN officials in Geneva on March 13 to discuss the grain deal renewal and trade sanctions.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets moved lower this week on overall market weakness and the Silicon Valley Bank news. While one day doesn’t make a trend, the trend lower since the start of February looks to have room to move lower with another big jobs added number keeping the Fed rate hikes as a question mark.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

06 Mar 2023

Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: HOW BAD SHOULD BAD LOOK?

Recap:

How bad should bad look? We are coming up on one year since the Fed began to raise rates and slow the economy. The effects on the housing industry have been drastic. Starts topped at 1805 last April and dropped to 1309 by last month. The price of the commodity has dropped from the $1000 level to $370 during the same period. The Fed has done its job in this sector. I go back to my question of is this bad going to worse or bad to better? Looking at the futures trade so far in 23 I’m starting to see the possibility of the bad to worse scenario not because of lower prices or less construction but because of a flat market. The most pain would be caused by a $400 market for months on end. That is a no volatility environment at a below breakeven price. That is where the Fed would like us to be. There have been two rallies this year so far. The first was started and driven by fund liquidation. The cash market was underbought but took itself to overbought in days. It was a futures driven rally not an uptick in demand. This last rally of $50 was more of the same in futures as the final group of short funds liquidated. This has become a stagnant market. The housing market has correctly reacted to the Fed’s policies. It has stopped the bubble. The Fed will keep it that way.

The lumber market is commodity driven and that gives it two dynamics demand (which is being controlled) and supply. The panic we saw in January was the supply siders buying up the market. There is too much recent history not to create a panic. The producer side is trying to curb excess supply. That is a very difficult maneuver when mill operations have multifunctional reaches and cash flow. What I do know is that production control leads to a hard bottom. It doesn’t slow down before demand picks up. The supply question is and will cause volatility.

Another point that was brought to my attention last week was industry makeup. We talk about the covid effect on the housing industry as being a “one of a kind event.” While I do agree with that fact, I have to add that on September 12^th,2001, things were looking very bad and in 2009 worse. What I realized last week was that a high percentage of the decision makers in our industry today where not in the business in 2009 or 2001. The movement today is what has been successful over the last 5 years or so. Do we overreact or under react?

I’ll finish with the funds. As of February 7th, the funds had a little over 600 longs and 200 shorts. For a two-week period in January the short fund took their 1950 contracts and a ton of money and went home. That was expected, but not over such a short period of time. As we are trying to establish a trading range in futures, I don’t think the January run is one to look at since it was driven by the funds. Better defined bounces are needed.

Technical:

The technical picture is in the process of developing a fan like model. If we keep it simple the midpoint of the fan sits at 356.55 on the weekly chart. That line goes back to the beginning of the Fed action. This week it is support. If the market can hold that trend line the next measurements will be higher ectara. It spreads out in a fan pattern. If this is a correct model, it shows the timeline between steps as being very long. The next line comes in as resistance at $509. Again, this process would be long and drawn out. Most would rather the market just to blow through the points and spike higher. That really is the risk in today’s market. An unexpected and unwarranted run-up hurting those with jobs. Put a fence around your risk!!

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

24 Feb 2023

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 10 – 24

Corn took it on the chin this week as it traded lower to levels last seen in early January. The bulk of the losses came in the second half of this week following the USDA Ag Forum’s bearish numbers. The Ag Forum estimates 91 million acres of corn with a 181.5 bu/ac yield. While these numbers are not surprising as they are mostly just trend line projections the market still reacted in a bearish way as this would raise ending stocks. These numbers also expect neutral external conditions such as weather, politics, etc. While these numbers historically are not the most accurate the market does listen and this was a major bearish factor for the week. They also released their price expectation for the year with December corn being $5.60, this is about 17 cents lower than Friday’s close. February insurance prices for corn sit at $5.95.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower to end the week in sentiment with corn and wheat. The USDA Ag Forum numbers for beans were 87.5 million acres with a yield of 52 bu/ac. These numbers are very realistic and did not send any shock into the market. These numbers would raise stocks by 65 million bushels to 290 mbu which would help alleviate some balance sheet stress. While these numbers were not surprising they did say they expect November bean price of $12.90, so there is room for downward movement in their view. The news that pulled soybeans lower had to do with other commodities as Argentine production estimates continue to fall and Brazil’s harvest is delayed. The insurance average for soybeans is $13.77 for November beans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has struggled the last two weeks after pushing up against the $8.00 mark before falling all the way to $7.08 to end the week. Wheat has moved lower as Russia is selling their wheat the cheapest of anyone, with Egypt purchasing 240,000 tonnes this week. Russia selling their wheat cheaper to gain market share and get money to continue to fund their war on Ukraine. Funds were also sellers this week on the news as they expect Russia to get business as long as countries are saving money. The Ag Forum released estimates for wheat of 49.5 million acres and a trend yield of 49.2 bu/ac. This news combined with Russia were bearish but with first notice day approaches we could see calmer trade than the past few days soon.

Via Barchart

Cotton

The cotton story has not changed much as the supply/demand story has not changed. There is both a lack of demand and a supply surplus here in the US, which has led to less imports of cotton goods. With the potential recession looming the lack of current demand mixed with that does not paint a great picture for cotton as it continues to trade on the lower end of its recent range.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets were down this week as economic data keeps coming in supporting higher rates. Inflation is sticking around and earnings are mixed as February will post big losses across the major indexes. Many market commentors still believe we are heading lower from several different factors including the Fed, inflation, layoffs, valuations and more. Continue to keep an eye on the strengthening USD.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

21 Feb 2023

Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: There is still too much wood out there

Commentary:

There is still too much wood out there. This week the euro traders had to not only deal with a soft market but also with the basis wood getting cheaper daily. Add to the mix that every Friday those with contract wood start off in the negative and you get this extreme malaise. With the amount of construction going on out there the market is either telling us the slowdown will be drastic or we are undervalued. Neither will be answered anytime soon so for today the market is the true indicator. Futures are on day 13 of this sell off. The rally lasted 16 days so the market could be close to bottoming. The resiliency of futures the last few days in light of all the algo selling pressure tells me it is close. What the bounce will look like is anyone’s guess, but the conditions are for a better grind higher market into the spring and not a spike up from the low. So, prepare for the spike and how for the grind.

Economic:

The housing starts report this week added to the confusion already lingering throughout the industry. Today multifamily units under construction are at the highest level since 1973. Combined single and multifamily there are 1.7 million units under construction. That number bumps up against the record. These are seasonally adjusted numbers. That said, there is near record construction going on with a third of the country dormant because of winter. When digging down into the numbers one must wonder with construction at this pace are we really under built? Rents are sticky, so I would expect that pace to remain in place while single families continue to fall off. The construction dynamics bare some resemblance to the housing market in 2004-2005. That is when the housing bubble burst. The housing sector was in a bear market well before the 2009 economic meltdown. The pace of today’s construction will lead to an overbuilt industry at some point. In a year from now we will not have 1.7 million units under construction. Now let us add to the confusion. The fact is today there are 1.7 million units under construction and that makes $382 way too cheap.

Technical:

March futures objective is for the January settlement of $344. The gap will be closed at $359.00 but the market is searching for value and that is the last expiration. The fact that the market is headed back to that area is troubling long-term. It indicates that $344 wasn’t a onetime fluke. It was considered a value the first time down and now is the area of rebuilding. The next rally up may just have to correct back again to this area. Momentum is oversold and a correction is coming but the market is not stair stepping higher yet. My only hope is that it isn’t a continuation of the stair stepping lower mode. In any case these are good levels to own wood going into the spring.

Below are the option links to the new contract. Please take a look at the quote page for options.

Quote page: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.quotes.options.html#optionProductId=10192

Calendar Page: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.calendar.options.html#optionProductId=10192

CFTC Commitment of Traders report still delayed!!

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

13 Feb 2023

Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The market just experienced a long needed buy round

Commentary:

The market just experienced a long needed buy round. It started as a fill in and turned into a fill up. The buy side had the futures to lean on so many stepped up their buying. The problem with that was the fact that futures fell quicker than expected and now there is more wood out there than needed. You throw the Euro wood into the mix, and we have more wood chasing too few dollars again. In traders’ terms “the market lost the bid again.”

Economic:

The key to housing fundamentals is labor. We went all through the teen years without enough skilled labor. Finally, prices were forced up enough to allow wages to rise and get the needed labor. We have not seen any layoffs in the home building sector so far. That is a sign of confidence on the home builder’s side. Today we are all data dependent. The builders are not seeing big downturn in the numbers but its early.

Technical:

It is hard to believe but the week gap left by the expiration is coming back into play. That gap is 419 to 344. Please remember the last time I talked about the gap the market rallied $100. This time I don’t think the timing is right for a rally. The downside channel comes in at 379.50. The expiration pushed the market over the channel not market conditions. This area has become relevant again today but is also now defined as cheap.

The market of the past few months reminds me of the typical “controlled burn” markets of the past. You have to hold inventory because the spikes are quick and violent. We are back to the first buy is good and then not. The difference on this one is there just may be a premium to sell in futures to stop the bleeding. That’s what just occurred. The other positive is now futures are headed for a deep discount allowing forward pricing again. That is a controlled burn. There is a path to mitigate risk and invest.

CFTC Commitment of Traders report still delayed!!

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

10 Feb 2023

Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 26 – FEBRUARY 10

Corn has been relatively flat over the last two weeks as it has continued to trade in a tight range the last 3 weeks. This week’s USDA Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no big surprises. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production while leaving Brazil’s unchanged from the January report. While the lowering of Argentina’s yield was expected, analysts still believe it will be lower. The main change to the US balance sheet was a 25-million-bushel reduction in ethanol consumption of corn, leading to a slight rise in ending stocks. World stocks received a boost from smaller world feed usage while stocks remain historically tight. Exports got off to a good start in February, with the week ended 2/02, coming in at the top end of estimates.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had not moved much over the last two weeks until Friday’s trade saw the march futures get a 24 cent boost while new crop gained 13 cents. Like corn the USDA report was a non-event for beans with no major news. The only notable changes were lowering Argentina’s total yield and lower crush numbers in the US. The lower crush in the US was more newsworthy as the markets had priced in lower Argentinian yield. World ending stocks were right on estimates.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity Markets were down this week after having a good run following the Fed raising rates another 25 points. Earnings and AI were the storylines the last 2 weeks, causing big swings in many markets. Crude Oil also rallied this week after dipping down into the $72 range and Russia announced they were cutting production by 500,000 barrels a day in March in retaliation for international sanctions. Earnings moving forward will help give an idea if this rally can continue or if we hit a near term high.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needs more heading into the spring.

Podcast

The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

06 Feb 2023

Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market lost momentum last week but still remained near its 3-month highs

Commentary:

The futures market lost momentum last week but still remained near its 3-month highs. The indifference trade was caused by a flat cash market. It is hard to tell if the resilience shown in futures was from a better outlook or from funds covering shorts. We have been flying blind the last few sessions as an outage in statement reporting at many firms has stopped the CME from being able to report open interest accurately. It has also prevented the CFTC from issuing the commitment of trader’s report for last week. What we do know is that the housing market, like equities, has support. Mortgage rates are back down to 6.09% which equates to another 3 million buyers who now qualify. Traffic is reported to be better than expected. While it is down sharply from the Dec 2021 highs, it still shows potential. After Friday’s jobs data we can be confident that there are buyers out there and they have jobs. All past housing downturns remained negative because of job losses. This isn’t the case this time. The key takeaway from last week was that once the froth is off the market and when homes become affordable again there is a market waiting. Let’s take a broader look at the economics.

Economic:

The Economic downturns have a timeline from when it reaches recession, pushes capital into the system and then recovers. This process tends to take time. Milton Friedman called it “the long and variable lag.” Today, unlike ever before, there is enough capital in the system to move the economy out of a recession. Since we have never been here before no one can tell us what it will look like. That said, the consensus seems to be leaning to a longer timeline for things to turn. The typical move would be to cut rates and boost confidence. Without that type of stimulus, money will only trickle into the economy. The markets are acting less nervous and more confident. If this economy has its way the market will move from point A to point B instead of heading to Z from A.

Technical:

Things are as not bad as we thought they would be at this point, and the rally in the lumber market just confirmed it. The upside focus is on the 200-day moving average. It is sitting at 564.75. That’s a $200 futures run in a short period of time. The market got caught short. The slight sell off last week allowed a few of the momentum indicators to correct. That’s mildly friendly and consistent with reports from the field. Builders were projecting cutting production by 40%. It turns out that they only cut 20% so far. A 20% reduction from lofty highs isn’t a reason for $335 cash but it also isn’t a reason for $600 cash. The technical read is right.

Notes:

There is a lot of confusion about the commodity funds in general and especially those in lumber. The funds that participate in the lumber futures market are generally ones with either a focus on a basket of products or purely momentum. The long fund that is getting all the press recently is a fund that carries a basket of commodities on the long side. This Rogers fund has been around since the early 2000’s. We haven’t seen it for a while during the big run up but seems to be back. The last commitment of traders report two weeks ago had the long fund count at 393. We have no way of knowing if that is all Rogers or if it is made up of a few funds. I have heard that smaller funds were looking at lumber futures when it was in the $300’s so it could be spread out some. On the other side are the short funds. Those looked to be mostly momentum funds that add to a winning position. They hit a high of 1955 open interest a few weeks ago. The last report had them down to 954. These types of funds carry defined positions based on equity. They are designed to add as the market goes lower and exit when it rallies a certain distance. There is no opinion of market direction. When the futures market was breaking $400, they were adding. When the market failed to continue lower and turned, they began to exit. The question today is of how much they will liquidate instead of rolling because of the switch of the contract. These funds are designed with strict liquidity rules. They will not accumulate open interest in an illiquid market. That said, if this is one fund or a big fund with tags attached, it has been making a windfall in this market. Their design has worked extremely well so I would expect them to stay around but the downside momentum model could be less profitable from here on out.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

01 Feb 2023

Agriculture, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

THE LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The futures market ran $95 higher last week and is now up $165 from its lows

Recap:

The futures market ran $95 higher last week and is now up $165 from its lows. The cash market also had a good week, rallying $55. It is up almost $90 from its lows. While the previous week’s rally was mostly fund buying this week was very well rounded. My thoughts of a tight ranged slog are out the window. The industry is settling into the thick of the economic issue and finding that it isn’t that bad. Many had to enter the cash market sooner than expected to lock in jobs. The market would typically digest after a sharp move, but what we saw in futures on Friday may prevent that. There were two 100 lots bid within a dollar bid. That raises numerous issues and red flags.

Economics:

The completion chart I showed last week indicates a topping housing market. Most would agree that home building has slowed, but would also agree that the rapid pace of construction was not sustainable. The economy as a whole will spend the rest of the year bouncing from sector to sector with bad news. This type of economic cycle will lower home prices and pressure interest rates. That’s a plus for our industry. With a better outlook, less Euro wood and Canadian production we can see the lumber market finding some type of balance. Add in a China opening, and the US supply and demand curve is closer to equilibrium. I can’t stress enough the fact that any indication of an over bought or oversold market equates to a big move today. This market is no longer conditioned to move $70 on news. It’s conditioned to move $300 or more. The reason being is all the consolidation the industry has gone through over the last 20 years.

Technical:

The focus last week was on the looming gap below the market. Today it is still the focus but this time with a positive spin. The gap was created by an expiration and not better business. (At least I thought) Today that gap is still in place and has created a very supportive trend line. It comes in at $397.70. It’s not often we see a pattern reversed from negative to positive on a long-term chart in just one week. That’s what happened here. The long-term pattern is now showing a possible V bottom. The issue today is the short-term pattern. With an RSI of 88% and the slow stochastics turning down there should be some type of correction coming. A $50 pullback would not influence the cash trade. It will be a technical correction in futures. Basis traders need to be aware of this possibility to liquidate the trade.

Note:

If you created a simple math equation in 2000 for the breakeven price of lumber by 2020 it would come out to be roughly $380. Now add the fact that from 09 to 11 the industry did not build enough to offset teardowns and you get closer to $420. Add covid logistic nightmares and the number is higher.

Summary:

The market broke out a month earlier than the industry wanted. The higher wages are going to allow buyers back into the market. As I said before, inventory is an investment not a liability. Buy it. You can always sell the futures if you don’t like it.

NEW CONTRACT:

Lumber Futures Volume & Open Interest

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/lumber.volume.html?itm_source=cmegroup&itm_medium=friendly&itm_campaign=lbr&redirect=/lbr

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Lumber & Wood Pulp Options

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

About the Leonard Report:

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

27 Jan 2023

Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 26

Corn made small gains over the last 2 weeks as news was quiet outside of South American weather with China being on holiday for Chinese New Year. Exports were better than expected this week, but Mexico continues to look at increasing their corn imports from Brazil. The forecast for rain in Argentina over the weekend will direct the trade to start the week. The news to look for in the coming weeks will be purchases from China and any changes in South American weather. Any developments in Ukraine will have ripple effects across the commodity space, but trying to predict what will happen there is almost impossible.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, had an up and down 2 week span but ended with modest losses. The uptrend beans have seen since October has been promising but eventually it will run out of steam with Brazil in a good position. If Brazil’s harvest gets off to a fast start we could see a weakening in old crop quickly with new crop following slower. Like corn, bean exports to China as they come out of covid lockdowns and Chinese new year would help provide some support until Brazil starts sending them beans. Keep an eye on any positive trade news from China, don’t expect news out of Brazil to be bullish.

Via Barchart

The cotton chart below shows the trade has stayed between 80 and 90 cents for the last couple of months. Cotton is caught in the middle of the markets thinking there will be a recession, and China coming out of Covid lockdowns with capital to spend on consumable goods. Cotton will need some news to get it out of this range, until then expect this trade to continue. While exports increased last week from the previous it is still half of this time last year, showing the demand situation is very different.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The Dow fell over the last 2 weeks as everyone is playing a guessing game with 1. What the Fed will do and 2. Will there be a recession? The economy is still doing well as jobless claims have not begun to go up and inflation is cooling but still has a way to go. With earnings underway guidance will be important to understand how companies are expecting 2023 to go with jobs and what they think the Fed will do.