RCM Ag Services

Category: Weather

09 Jul 2021
Corn, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 1-8

The corn market fell thanks to the rain that was received in the Upper Midwest over the 4th of July weekend. As always when it rains in areas that need it the most, the market freaks out as if it is a crop making/saving rain. The reality is, although the rain was helpful, there are still significant drought conditions across most of the areas that received rain (see in the drought chart at the bottom). With this said, next week is forecasting rain across the western corn belt providing some more relief to those areas before returning to hot and dry after.

CONAB (Brazil’s USDA) updated their yield expectations this morning by cutting their corn crop by 3 million metric tons (120 million bushels). This change came before a freeze event they had recently which could lead to problems and another cut of their expected crop. The USDA will update their estimates of the South American crop next week in the report.

The weekly ethanol report was bullish as production was 2% ahead of pre-Covid 2019 levels. US drivers drove a record amount over the 4th of July weekend with indications that usage for the summer could be a new record. The USDA is expected to increase their estimates for corn used for ethanol coming up as their numbers are lagging the actual pace.

Via Barchart                        Soybeans, like corn, fell following the holiday weekend with huge losses on Tuesday to start the week. Weather remains the main focus of the markets as rains in the next week will help but forecasts have it followed by heat and dryness. Bean crop conditions this week were down 1% to 59% g/e. The soybean balance sheet does not have as much room for error as corn so any adverse soybean news will be bullish for the market. The long term up trend broke about 3 weeks ago but prices are still at a great level compared to what we were seeing this time last year. The report on Monday will help tell us what other news should be moving the market other than weather but headlines love to say it rained.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow lost on the week after a tough Thursday in the markets. The market bounced back well off its lows on Thursday into the close however to keep some momentum. The markets have been volatile, but the big picture is important as we have traded in the range above 34,000 for most of the last 2 months. The delta variant has had many people worried and keeping an eye on the market for any indicator of how bad it could end up being for continued reopening around the world.

Lumber

Lumber prices have flattened out the last couple weeks after losing over half its value from the peak. Markets are hinting at this being the beginning of a rebalancing as the producers and suppliers feel out the supply and demand story.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The maps below show the current US drought conditions this week vs last week. As you can see the rain that freaked out some in the markets did not exactly fix the drought problems. The rain was helpful but will need more consistent sustained rain to help the crop in the coming months.

Via Barchart.com

 

 

21 Jun 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weather rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 11-18

Corn had a volatile week much like beans having a limit down day on Thursday then a strong recovery on Friday. Corn had had a choppy trade this week before Thursday but the collapse in soybeans and soybean oil brought corn down with it. The bearish news for corn was that it was expected to rain in the drought stricken upper Midwest. This rain is much needed and will help but more consistent rainfall over the coming weeks would be needed to help the crop more. The rain will likely pressure markets lower to start the week if forecasts were accurate. If it does not rain as much as predicted it could fuel the bulls to continue from Friday. The dip on Thursday allowed some bulls to get back in the market at an attractive area while the bullish news remains the same.

Via Barchart                          

Soybeans nosedived on Thursday as they took full advantage of the expanded limits and fell over $1. The pressure on beans has been coming from the soybean oil and crush markets as crush numbers have decreased and soybean oil prices have fallen rapidly. With US yield estimates coming in around 52 bpa the price levels from earlier in the year would be hard to get back to. South America had a good bean harvest so there is not as much stress on the supply side like there is for corn. If dryness continues into the summer and yields begin to take a hit we could see a rebound for the bulls. The trade over the next week and half going into the June planted acreage report will give us an idea of what to expect in the report at the end of the month.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow suffered loses on the week as the Fed announced they would begin looking at raising rates to help combat inflation. Although they said the plan would be to not raise til 2023 the market seems to think that timeline will probably be moved up if inflation accelerates.

Lumber

Lumber prices have dipped recently but are still at very high levels historically. Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows current drought conditions and the continued problems in the upper Midwest. Drought conditions continue in the Midwest with some areas getting relief over the weekend. For reference the second chart below is this time last year.

Via Barchart.com

 

 

11 Jun 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Lumber, Market Updates, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 4-11

Corn had another good week that was made better following the bullish news in Thursday’s WASDE report. At the start of the week corn planting was seen as 91% complete with little progress being made from last week but at this point in the process limited progress is expected. The dryness in the Midwest and other areas of the corn belt can be seen in the drought monitor below. The USDA agreed with what many in the industry have been saying by reducing US and world ending stocks.

20/21 US ending stocks was adjusted down to 1.107 billion bushels from 1.257 in the May report while 21/22 ending stocks were adjusted down to 1.357 billion bushels from 1.507 in May. World ending stocks for 20/21 were lowered to 280.60 million tonnes from 283.53 while the 21/22 was also lowered to 289.41 million tonnes from 292.30. There is still a disconnect between the USDA and the public on what’s going on in South America and the size of their crop. Word on the street is that it has been shrinking as weather woes caused issues but the USDA does not have them down nearly as much in this report.

Now that growing season has started weather and specifically where it does and does not rain will be the main price driving factors.  The upper Midwest is dry but the delta just got torrential rains this week and areas in Indiana and Ohio have been soaked too. The rain in the Dakotas and Iowa to end the week will help but still need rain over extended periods to get back to good growing conditions.

Via Barchart

Soybeans slipped a bit on the week but are still hanging on inside the recent range. Bean news has been quiet as of late with no market specific news, unlike corn. Soybean planting was seen as 80% complete to start the week with some continued progress to be made. The USDA WASDE report was more bearish for beans than corn but markets responded well after.

The 20/21 US ending stocks were raised from 120 million bushels to 135 million and the 21/22 ending stocks were raised form 140 million to 155 million bushels respectively. These were both still within trade estimates so no major shock with the US or the world stocks. The 20/21 world ending stocks were raised from 86.55 million tonnes to 88 million and the 21/22 ending stocks were raised from 91.10 million to 92.55. Raising the stocks month over month is usually bearish and old crop took a hit while new crop rallied on the report.

Markets moved lower Friday with rain coming in some much needed areas heading into the weekend.

Via Barchart

Cotton has seen modest gains this week after soaking rains and flooding in areas of the Delta. The WASDE report this week showed the expected directionally bullish revisions. There were no major surprises, but their numbers may be hinting at a continued decline in production going up against the rising levels of global consumption. The USDA projections for 21/22 show a 100,000 bale increase in exports from last month to 14.8 million bales. As exports continue to be strong for the 20/21 crop ending stocks were lowered 200,000 bales to 2.9 million ending stocks. Global ending stocks were lower as well with consumption rising.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow lost slightly on the week as news was slow with no major market news or movers. Covid openings continue as numbers continue to decline in the US while there are still problems around the world.

Lumber

Lumber prices have dipped recently but are still at very high levels historically. Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows current drought conditions and the continued problems in the upper Midwest. More drought conditions have crept into southern Iowa and parts of Nebraska in the last week. Heat over the next two weeks will be a problem in the Dakotas and western corn belt.

Via Barchart

 

04 Jun 2021
Corn, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Soybeans, Weather rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 28 – JUNE 4

Volatility continued this week as the market suffered small loses week over week. Corn planting was seen at being 95% planted this week with the first crop condition rating of the year at 76% g/e. Early yield estimates from Barchart.com have national US corn yield at 173.2 BPA for a total yield of 14.4 billion bushels. This implies 90.5 million acres planted with a 92% harvest rate. These numbers would lead to shrinking US ending stocks for 21/22 – NOTE these are just estimates and it is very early in the process.

This weeks volatility was a classic example of a news driven market. One day weather was the main price mover and another outside forces such as metals and the USD pulled markets down across the board. Old crop corn export sales this week were strong coming in at 531.1 tmt and new crop sales were 439.5 tmt. Both of which are solid numbers where old crop sales were better than expected while new crop were within expectation.

Via Barchart

Contrary to Corn, Soybeans made gains on the week. Planting was seen as being 84% completed at the onset with no crop conditions being reported just yet. World veg oil prices rallied during the week pulling beans up with it while corn struggled. With US exports to China lagging in recent weeks, the bullish stance on beans continues to be robust.  Should buying resume, any and all purchases will help the export numbers and further be supportive for the market. This week’s exports were within expectations for both old crop and new crop with new crop leading the way with 180.3 tmt.

Via Barchart

Crude oil continued its gains of recent weeks reaching the highest price in 2 ½ years. The demand for gas continues to grow as lockdowns ease and summer travel, both by cars and air, begins to ramp up. OPEC announced they will up production again in July.  While a bearish on the surface it would seem additional increases will be needed to slow this bull.  Optimism about Europe’s reopening along with the continuation of good news in the US on covid vaccines and reopening of states has been the main driver. US crude oil inventories were also lower this week than the 5 year seasonal average showing the demand is there.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow gained on the week as it strung together several days of small gains with only small pullbacks. The craziness of the reddit trade returned this week with $AMC, $GME and $BB having wild bouts of volatility. Other indexes finished lower for the week as Nasdaq struggled on Thursday.

JBS

JBS was the victim of a recent cyber attack that caused them to have to shut down many plants. All were up and running by the end of the week but between this and the Colonial hack we may begin seeing more of these targeted attacks effect US consumers.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on. Lumber has leveled off here recently but it is still well ahead of where it was before the run up.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows this week’s drought conditions across the US. Parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma got relief this week while parts of North and South Dakota may receive much needed rain in the next week.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

 

28 May 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Podcast, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 22-28

Volatility was the story this week as you can see the dip and bounce back over the last few days in the chart below. Surprisingly it was not the funds alone that triggered the selloff but rather a more balanced mix of funds, commercials, and farmer selling – in short – it appears to have been a bit of profit taking into the end of the month.

Corn had strong exports this week with no major cancellations (despite rumors to start the week).  While these rumors of a cancellation dropped prices aggressively, the subsequent large sales of new crop corn to China, following the dip, ended up saving China quite a bit of money while also rebounding our markets. Seller beware when China is the main buyer.

The weekly ethanol grind was 294MGa and well above the weekly pace needed to meet the annual USDA estimate. Corn was seen as being 91% planted to start the week along with great weather across most of the US heading into Memorial Day weekend.

Via Barchart


Soybeans made small gains on the week with lower volatility than corn but similar price movement. Exports were solid in old crop beans giving the bulls some momentum to work with heading  into the weekend. Exports were strong again this week, which is a welcome sign after slowing the last couple. The soybean crop was seen as about 80% planted at the start of the week as progress continues across the country. The recent loses have made US commodities competitive again in the world market allowing for some stronger demand into the end of the year. Once we get on the other side of Memorial Day the June weather outlook will start to be important as most of the crop will be in the ground and some already well into growing.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow and other indexes gained on the week with improving opening conditions and support for some of the major market players in the S&P. Republicans and Democrats continue to work on their versions of the infrastructure plan the Biden White House wants to pass.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows this week’s drought conditions across the US. Many areas across the corn belt received rain over the week while others, like the Dakotas and Michigan, remain dry.

Via Barchart

21 May 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Grain, Lumber, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 15-21

Corn had a decent week following the collapse to end last week’s trading. The biggest news was on the export front where China continued their large purchases of corn adding on to the impressive pace of Chinese buying for new crop. The US weather looks good for planting as some areas continue to try to get their crop in the ground ahead of summer temperatures setting in across the country. Other corn demand news remains positive as the EPA is expected to leave the ethanol mandate unchanged and Brazil’s second corn crop continues to shrink. Brazilian private analysis firm Agro-consult cut their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop to 91.1 million metric tons which is 10.9 mmt (430 million bushels) under last week’s USDA estimate. With a shrinking South American crop the demand for US corn this year should be high.  That said, anything under 175 bpa yield could really tighten the balance sheets. US corn was seen as being 80% planted at the start of the week with more progress made this week.

Via Barchart


Soybeans continued its dip down this week as the demand has shifted to Brazil where prices are currently lower than in the US in the near term. Funds have taken profits after holding historic long positions.  It will be important for them to get involved if we want another run up as demand and US weather will be the main fundamental drivers for the near future. Soybean planting was seen as being 61% complete to start the week as more progress was made this week. Good weather vs a slowing in demand has given the bears momentum this week but there is still a long way to go and we know China is likely needing to make additional bean purchases along with corn.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow has made small gains on the week as the markets remain volatile with up and down days. Covid around the world delaying reopening’s are causing some issues in places, like Japan, which has the worlds 3rd largest economy.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out our recent podcast with Dr. Greg Willoughby: We’re talking with Greg in the new episode about being a “plant doctor”, weather patterns, GMO & organic produce, crop history, technical advances, level 201 education on agronomy, the agronomy equation, Helena Agri, soil biology, American v European agriculture, Greg’s early background in livestock, and the advancement of native plants to modern produce.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows this week’s drought conditions across the US. Some areas received rain over the weekend improving some areas while others, like the Dakotas and Michigan, remain dry.

             Via Barchart 

 

07 May 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 1-7


Corn continued it’s hot run this month with a great week in both old crop and new crop prices. As Brazil’s safrinha crop keeps facing a dry outlook, pressure is mounting on the US to produce a great crop to fulfill world demand. The US forecast is turning wetter for many major growing areas but remains cool for this time of year. The cool weather is not ideal for early growth, but the rain will be welcome in areas facing drought conditions (see map at bottom). There is a rumor of more Chinese interest in new crop which helped propel old crop to end the week. Despite poor exports this week, this news, along with South America’s troubles, have been the market moving news this week. The US corn crop is seen at 44% planted at the start of the week beginning May 3.

Via Barchart

 


Soybeans followed Corn this week as they also saw strong gains. China’s ASF news has slowed as of late which is good for export expectations to China. The world demand has continued to be strong and helpful to prices in both South America and the US, while US beans remain competitive in the world market even at these levels. The recent wet and colder weather across much of the US is not expected to cause any issues for the soybean crop except maybe pushing planting back in some areas where farmers also must wait to plant corn. 25% of the US soybean crop is seen as being planted for the week beginning May 3.

Via Barchart

 


The big question right now: What is going on with cotton? Cotton has not enjoyed in the rally in 2021 that other commodities have. The demand has been there, but there are already worries about the 2021 cotton crop. Normally these are a recipe for higher prices, right? The fundamentals would agree as higher comparative prices for other commodities may take away some cotton acres by the end of planting season. The technical side has been cotton’s enemy as of late as they have not been able to make new contract highs, unlike the grains. The world shipping bottleneck does not appear to be getting any better and as the US continues to come out of lockdowns along with other countries demand will only make it worse. This problem needs to be solved sooner rather than later.

Via Barchart

 


Dow Jones
The Dow was up this week while other indexes were mixed with the Nasdaq and Russel falling. As earnings continue to be reported many of the winners of the last year have posted strong quarters but it appears the momentum behind them have slowed as good earnings have sometimes been followed by selling.

Lumber
Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast
Check out or recent podcasts with guests Elaine Kub and Kyle Little. Elaine and Jeff discuss grain markets and trading grains while Kyle helps give insight into the Lumber markets and what has been going on.

Listen with Kyle:

Listen now with Elaine

CME
CME Group announced this week that it will not re-open its trading pits that were closed last March at the start of the pandemic. The Eurodollar Options pit will remain open. See the full press release here.

US Drought Monitor
The map below shows the current drought conditions throughout the US as planting continues across the country.

 

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

 

 

30 Apr 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Livestock, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG Market Update: April 24-30

Volatility was the name of the game this week as many days saw wide trading ranges on both sides of unchanged. Looking at the chart below you can just how wide ranges the last few days have been.  Despite the volatlity, the May contract settled squarely within the range as of Thursday.  This volatility came about as we’ve faced a short squeeze on the front month May contract.  Coming into the week, there were nearly 200,000 open contracts, as of this morning there are only 12,500 – presumably many were on the short side and needed to cover.

Regardless of what has caused the rally – higher prices is GREAT for the American Farmer!

For the July contract and new crop Dec, the markets followed the May higher this week and most April as South America’s struggles with drought conditions begin to be seen in yield estimates.  Any rain after May 10th probably won’t be able to add must help this late in the game. As expected, exports were good this week but that has become the new normal. The epanded limits coming next week along with higher prices means we should probably expect volatility to hang around.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had small gains on the week as they also traded in wide ranges in the May contract in addition to future months. The short squeeze has end users scrambling with physical delivery coming up. Along with beans rallying, we have seen basis improve in many areas as buyers try get what is left out of farmers bins. A growing consensus among traders is that continued strong US cash bids indicate that the stock numbers are lower than the USDA reports.  Will the USDA adjust in the June report is a major question?  Bean meal and oil have also rallied in the past couple weeks aiding to soybeans rise. The fundamental news around the market was less in focus this week with the May contract expiration causing for most of the volatility.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow was up slightly on the week as more news about reopenings continue to roll in and President Biden gave his first speech to Congress. Vaccination rates continue to be strong in many cities and New York City announced this week they will lift all restrictions for reopening July 1st.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

Podcast

Check out or recent podcasts with guests Elaine Kub and Kyle Little. Elaine and Jeff discuss grain markets and trading grains while Kyle helps give insight into the Lumber markets and what has been going on.

https://rcmagservices.com/the-hedged-edge/

 

Other News

On Monday, daily trading limits will expand for our major markets with corn increased from 25 cents to 40 cents, beans from 70 to $1.00 and wheat from 40 to 45.  The CBOT is not tipping their hand that they expect volatility this summer, the daily limit increases are largely due to the high prices to keep daily ranges in line with historic percentages of price.

 

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas are currently experiencing drought conditions across the US. Not much changed from last week. The rains in Texas will help alleviate some dryness in the area but will not solve their moisture issues. Some dryness has crept into Illinois and Indiana but nothing to worry about right now.

 

Weekly prices

Via Barchart.com

23 Apr 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Update: April 17 – 23

Off to the races? Corn was limit up Thursday as prices for May corn topped $6.50 for the first time since 2013 continuing its impressive weekly run. The May option expiration occurring Friday has traders scrambling to cover short call option positions by buying futures and positioning themselves for next week’s first notice day. As we have been seeing in the cash market for a while with improving basis, it seems the futures market is catching up and realizing the market needs corn and it needs it now. Any farmers with old crop remaining has the cards in their hands looking to get prices high enough for them to make any sales. The cold weather/snow across much of the country this week is not expected to cause many issues except delaying planting a little longer in some areas as we wait for soil temperatures to get back up. Brazil’s dry outlook has not changed and will continue to put stress on a crop that does not need anymore problems. Continue to monitor the dryness in South America as problems there will transition to gains in our new crop markets as the world will need the US to produce a large crop.

Via Barchart

 

Soybeans gained on the week as they followed corn for similar reasons. The South American weather issues will not effect the soybean market like corn but as we have seen good news for one has been good news for the other. The may option expiration came into play as beans saw a strong rise on Thursday even though they were not limit up. Exports this week were nothing to write home about but still within expectations and well ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA estimates. With world demand high, the US needs to have a great crop to meet it and not cause issues in the world pipeline. As volume begins to pick up in the November contract it will be important to have a plan for marketing your crop this year as volatility is always around.

Via Barchart

 

Cotton did not enjoy the rally the grains had this week as they continue to trail the other markets in price competitiveness. Weekly exports are expected to decline going forward, not from a lack of demand, but from a lack of supply left in the US, which should be seen as bullish despite lower export numbers appearing bearish. The big head scratcher is why cotton prices are lagging the grain market so much when prices need to be competitive just to get all the acres in the ground. With corn and soybeans taking their next leg up this week, December cotton equivalent price should be about $1.11 vs. the current $.84. What is needed to get to this level? We could see what is currently playing out in the grain markets on option expiration causing a big boost when the next one comes up, but cotton needs a boost to get it all in the ground.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones

The Dow had been trading fairly evenly on the week with some down and up days until Thursday’s losses following the Biden administration stating their plans to increase the capital gains tax to over 40% for high earners. A number that high will face headwinds from the house and senate and is unlikely to come to fruition but the Biden administration did campaign on raising those and a raise should be expected.

Lumber

Check out our recent post about the lumber market and what all has been going on.

 

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas are currently experiencing drought conditions across the US. Not much changed from last week.

 

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

 

19 Apr 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Markets Updates: April 10-16

Corn had a good week as we reach new contract highs in May for old crop. As you can see in the 1 year chart below after trading in the $5.30-$5.60 range for a couple months corn has seen a strong response since the Projected Plantings report came out. The export numbers this week were not great, yet corn was still able to post a positive day following the report as the number was still 10 million bushels above the weekly total needed to meet USDA estimates. Analysts are expecting Brazil’s safrinha crop to potentially lose 5 million metric tonnes due to the late planting and stress from the drought conditions that have been present for a while. Ethanol stocks are the lowest mid-April they have been since 2014 showing that demand has ramped back up as re-openings continue. Some corn planting has started in areas across the country but this week’s cold weather will bring it to a stop as many areas will have to wait for it to warm back up to continue planting.

Via Barchart                                                               

Soybeans saw small gains on the week, but for the most part it was a quiet week for beans after a slight dip then gains. The news in the market around soybeans has been limited which is why the corn and bean chart are starting to look different. The cold weather that will delay/pause planting in some areas will not have much, if any, effect on soybean planting as they usually begin later anyway. Beans are now well off their contract highs for old crop and until we get back to those levels do not expect any strengthening look from the charts. Soybean’s will continue to move with exports and if anything crazy happens in South America but will probably slowly follow corn just how corn followed soybeans until now for the short term.

Via Barchart      

Cotton continues its rebound from the recent lows as world demand continues to increase and consumer spending rebounds. The dollar has also weakened recently supporting commodities as well. Retail sales for the month of March were reported this week climbing 9.8% as stimulus checks were spent and consumers get back out in the market. With cotton prices where they are compared to other crops many farmers are stuck with a difficult decision on which to plant. In some cases, farmers in areas such as west Texas, currently suffering from bad drought conditions, may elect to plant sorghum (milo) as a cheaper to produce alternative that has a much wider planting window. The drought conditions are a problem (see map below) in many areas, but when 40% of the cotton crop is expected to be planted in Texas the supply and demand story come the fall comes into play.

Via Barchart

Dow Jones

The Dow gained on the week despite the news that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution will be put on hold after 6 cases of a rare blood clot after giving out over 7 million doses. The reopening strength has still been playing in the markets as many consumers are out and about again after receiving stimulus checks.

Lumber

In case you have not been paying attention to it, lumber prices have been high for a while now but continue to climb. In the cash market any wood that is for sale is bought immediately and this is also being reflected in the futures market with it now trading over $1,200. This plays out in the cost to build houses in a real estate market that has been hot the last year in the US despite the pandemic.

US Drought Monitor

The map below shows what areas of the US are currently suffering from drought conditions and as you can see it is widespread. As planting begins in many areas some areas will be delayed as they wait for a good rain to help them get in the field. The drought in Texas will have the biggest effect on Cotton as over 40% of the US cotton crop is expected to be planted there.

Weekly Prices

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.