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13 May 2024
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Futures, Grain, Hedging, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 19 – MAY 10

Corn has seen a strong rally over the last couple of weeks as planting is slightly delayed in parts of the US and funds seem to have changed their tone a bit. Last week’s USDA Report did not have any earth-shattering news but did provide some good news for the markets. US corn stocks were lower than estimates heading into the report along with world stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25. The production outlook for this year, 181 bu/ac, continues to show how the advances in agronomic practices and seed genetics continue to grow. All of these carryout and stocks numbers are based on those production estimates so if we begin to see weather issues or problems at the end of planting, we could continue to see revisions to the downside, and vice versa with great weather and conditions.

Via Barchart

Beans had a rough week after a strong start to May. The USDA Report leaned bearish as the South American production continues to expand for the upcoming year. The USDA is slowly trimming Brazil’s bean crop but is still above CONAB’s estimates by a bout 300 million bushels. The recent flooding in southern Brazil will force their hand to lower their expectations but the CONAB estimates on losses will be closely watched. Another promising development in the report was the expectation of record imports and usage in China. While much of this is expected to be met by Brazil and issues with their production will still need to be met.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rebounded over the last couple weeks with earnings season going on. The feeling on Fed rate cuts keeps pushing them back with one not expected until the fall and at least one fed chair thinking we may not get one this year as inflation remains sticky. Rates will remain data dependent but the feeling of higher for longer continues to seem more likely.

Via Barchart

Cotton

  • Cotton has fallen well off the February and March highs as the lack of demand in the global market mixed with funds exiting their long positions has beaten down the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat

  • Wheat’s recent rallies are welcome after struggling to find much positive movement in the market to start the year. Frost damage to Russia’s wheat crop and a dry pattern in the Black Sea has been the recent mover as the USDA Report had some mixed numbers. Smaller than expected US stocks, 24/25 world stocks and total production with higher than expected world wheat stocks for 23/24.

Other News

  • Conflict continues between Israel and Palestine as a ceasefire has been negotiated on many sides, but nothing has been agreed to yet.
  • Major flooding across southern Brazil has killed thousands of livestock and will have an impact on their crop but the extent of which is not known yet

Drought Monitor

Here is the current drought monitor as we head toward planting with subsoil moisture a focus.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

09 Nov 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 9

The November USDA Report raised US yields and ending stocks. From what we have been hearing about yields in the eastern corn belt the rise in yields was not that unexpected while a 1.9 bu/ac jump higher to 174.9 was not quite expected. Rarely does the November report differ so much from the Sep/Oct yields, but the yields in IL, IN, and OH made up for losses seen in the western corn belt and plains. Current support is at $4.67 for Dec corn, but a close below that could lead lower. If that holds, we should expect the sideways trade we have seen for the next month+. US corn yield 174.9 bpa. Us corn production 15.234 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had seen a good run over the last couple of weeks until the USDA report took a hit. While beans are still well off their lows the report’s reaction saw beans lose 20 cents. Like corn, soybeans saw their yield increased to 49.9 bu/ac. The Chinese demand situation and northern Brazil’s dry weather have been bullish for beans and will be a bullish talking point if they last and the main news moving forward. US soybean yield 49.9 bu/ac. US soybean production 4.129 billion bushels.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets had their longest winning streak of the year in the past couple weeks, climbing back from the latest move lower. Inflation is cooling and the Fed appeared to be done (for now) with changing rates which allows the market to take a deep breath as a “soft landing” appears attainable. Fed Chair Powell today said that he is not confident the Fed has achieved sufficiently restrictive rate to bring down inflation, allowing for some concern of further rate hikes. While earnings have not been stellar across the board strength in some important areas has given the markets fuel for this most recent rally.

Via Barchart

Cotton

Cotton is a supply and demand story right now with ample supply and a lack of demand. World geopolitical issues and the risk of a recession have kept buying down as producers do not want to be stuck with inventory nobody wants to buy.

PRICES

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

26 May 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MAY 15 – 26

Corn had its best 2 week stretch in quite a while. As you can see from the chart below this has been the first meaningful rally, we have seen in 2023. As corn planting was 81% complete to start the week, ahead of the average pace, the trade has started to look at the weather outlook as we head into June. A dry pattern has begun forming in the coming weeks as it begins to warm up across the corn belt. While the heat in June is not overly worrisome it will be important to keep an eye on it as a warm dry June, followed by a hot dry July, could be plenty to do some serious damage to the US crop. We are a long way from this becoming a reality but a few weeks of dry heat to start June could help this rally keep some momentum or at least not give back the recent gains. Exports continue to be disappointing, and the extension of the Black Sea grain corridor isn’t bullish, but as usual the focus will be on final planted acres and weather in the coming weeks.

Via Barchart

Soybeans can’t get any momentum as South American beans continue to be the preferred option in the world market. November futures made a new low this week before getting a modest bounce on Friday heading into the long weekend. As demand continues to struggle the USDA will likely continue to trim exports in the next report, which will add to ending stocks for 22/23. Beans were 66% planted, ahead of the average pace, as weather concerns won’t hit the soybean market just yet. Beans are lacking any bullish news as they wait for a spark but struggle to find where it will come from.

Via Barchart

Cotton had a volatile week as seen in the chart below. When these opportunities present themselves, you do not want to miss the opportunity to hedge your risk. Have a plan and be prepared if there is another 5-cent spike that could make a big difference in your bottom line and potentially a good spot to place a hedge. The 78-84 cent range of Dec 2023 cotton has been consistent with pops to the upside and dips back to the bottom. The world economic outlook and US weather will be the main drivers moving forward into the long weekend.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their mixed run of late with the DJI continuing to struggle while the S&P and NASDAQ stocks see gains. NVIDIA was the big winner of the week as chips and AI have investors’ focus. While the jury is still out on Artificial Intelligence and what role it will play in the coming years, one thing is clear, investors don’t want to miss the boat even though we do not know if the boat is the Titanic or the USS Missouri.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor below shows the struggles in the weestern corn belt as the eastern corn belt is in good shape as planting wraps up.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Apr 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: APRIL 12 – 21

Corn had a rough week, especially to end the week falling over 20 cents after a small rally. Poor weekly exports, fund selling and the potential for rain in the driest parts of the US pushed prices lower this week. Corn planting was 8% complete to start the week, slightly behind where it was expected to be but in fine shape for this point of the year. Weather will remain a problem from the Midwest with cold temps continuing. Any news out of Russia and Ukraine will continue to move markets.

Via Barchart

Soybeans had a similar week to corn with weakness into the weekend. Brazilian soybeans continue to be at a big discount to Chicago, $2.00, with their record production and storage shortage. China is not as active a buyer as expected in Brazil but less demand from them will lead to more from other places taking away from US exports. The soybean balance sheet has been tight so that would not be a bad thing for global supply but would not be friendly to getting back to $14 beans.

Via Barchart

Cotton was limit down at one point during Thursday’s trade, before bouncing slightly for its worst day in over a month. The export report was less than impressive this week at a 15-week low. The chart broke through its support level during the down trade, changing how the charts look. The chance of rain in west Texas was one of the drivers as it only takes a few well-timed rains to make the markets nervous. While it is still only a chance of rain all eyes will be on if that rainfall comes to fruition. Any widespread rain in west Texas would lead to another limit move lower.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets bled a little this week as the market looks for direction from earnings. The S&P 500 was unable to break through the 4,200 level, coming close before moving lower for the week. Earnings next week for some major companies (Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon) will give us a lot of information that will determine the market’s next move.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt dry.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

31 Mar 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 24 – 31 USDA REPORT

The USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports were released today, March 31st, with a mix of news. The report pegged this year’s crop at 92 million acres while the trade estimates were about 91 million. This led to a mixed trade as pre-report strength faded with futures ending mixed for the day. Current US weather conditions and the expectation of a slow start to planting could lead to this number falling, it is unlikely we will see a number higher than this the rest of the year, similar to last year. Corn stocks were lower than estimates by 69 million bushels and over 350 million bushels lower than last year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans received a boost from the report as with lower acreage and stocks than expected. The planted acreage number came in at 87.5 million acres, lower than the 88.24 million trade estimate. The quarterly stocks were 247 million bushels lower than a year ago, continuing to show the tightness on the balance sheet. South America still has some uncertainty around their crop, but we should get a better idea in the coming weeks. Both numbers from today’s report are seen as bullish for the market.

Via Barchart

Wheat saw some bearish numbers with higher planted acreage and higher stocks than pre-report estimates. 49.9 million acres, 1 million over estimates, and 946 million bushels in stocks, 934 mbu estimate, were both bearish while the price did not overreact. Wheat will follow corn’s lead for now with many questions still surrounding the conditions in the southern plains and the Black Sea.

Via Barchart

Cotton’s bounce this week back to over 83 cents was very welcome after a couple weeks of lower trade. The market did not have a major reaction to the report with planted acreage estimates coming in at 11.3 million acres vs the 11.2 million trade estimate. Speculative short covering helped cotton rally this week while spreads were also a lower than normal percent of the trade. The problem continues to remain of recession fears and how that affects companies purchases trying to weigh supply and demand.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equities had another good week as investors seem to believe the Fed will relax with rate hikes and the banking fears have calmed down along with an ease in inflation pressure as we slowly move lower. Tech companies would be the beneficiary of lowering rates by the end of the year but the Fed’s recent comments would indicate they have no intention to lower rates before the end of the year. There was strength in most sectors this week.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture, some too much, so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

10 Mar 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crop Insurance, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 24 – MARCH 10

The last 2 weeks have not been friendly to corn despite a neutral to bullish USDA report this week. The USDA lowered Argentina’s production by 40 mmt, but the crop could still be smaller amid a historically poor weather year in Argentina. Corn took a nosedive to end the month of February and has taken another leg lower this week, with the new crop hitting $5.50. After a flat trade for most of February the move lower presents farmers with important decisions regarding what to do for crop insurance. With the Feb average price of $5.91, 40ish cents higher than current levels, farmers should seriously look at the highest level of revenue protection you can get. The premiums will likely be high, but the recent price movement has created an uncertain environment with a long way to go.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower again this week after rebounding last week as soybeans have held together better than corn. Bean stocks were tighter than the trade expected while exports were up 25 mbu but crush down 10 mbu. Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and stocks. Like for corn, the USDA lowered Argentina’s production below the average trade estimate. While the news out of the report was mildly bullish, the negativity around corn and wheat bled into beans to end the week.

Via Barchart

Cotton was punched in the mouth on Friday after trading lower this week. The USDA did not make any significant changes to the supply and demand report. The lack of demand is the main problem as the global 22/23 forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade with higher production and stocks. The world economic outlook is questionable for the coming year and a global recession would hurt cotton more than other areas.

Via Barchart

Wheat

The story for wheat has not changed as markets continue to get crushed. The report made no major changes to forecasts and balance sheets and there has not been any major changes in Ukraine as Russia continues their assault. Russian officials are expected to meet with UN officials in Geneva on March 13 to discuss the grain deal renewal and trade sanctions.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets moved lower this week on overall market weakness and the Silicon Valley Bank news. While one day doesn’t make a trend, the trend lower since the start of February looks to have room to move lower with another big jobs added number keeping the Fed rate hikes as a question mark.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

24 Feb 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEBRUARY 10 – 24

Corn took it on the chin this week as it traded lower to levels last seen in early January. The bulk of the losses came in the second half of this week following the USDA Ag Forum’s bearish numbers. The Ag Forum estimates 91 million acres of corn with a 181.5 bu/ac yield. While these numbers are not surprising as they are mostly just trend line projections the market still reacted in a bearish way as this would raise ending stocks. These numbers also expect neutral external conditions such as weather, politics, etc. While these numbers historically are not the most accurate the market does listen and this was a major bearish factor for the week. They also released their price expectation for the year with December corn being $5.60, this is about 17 cents lower than Friday’s close. February insurance prices for corn sit at $5.95.

Via Barchart

Soybeans moved lower to end the week in sentiment with corn and wheat. The USDA Ag Forum numbers for beans were 87.5 million acres with a yield of 52 bu/ac. These numbers are very realistic and did not send any shock into the market. These numbers would raise stocks by 65 million bushels to 290 mbu which would help alleviate some balance sheet stress. While these numbers were not surprising they did say they expect November bean price of $12.90, so there is room for downward movement in their view. The news that pulled soybeans lower had to do with other commodities as Argentine production estimates continue to fall and Brazil’s harvest is delayed. The insurance average for soybeans is $13.77 for November beans.

Via Barchart

Wheat has struggled the last two weeks after pushing up against the $8.00 mark before falling all the way to $7.08 to end the week. Wheat has moved lower as Russia is selling their wheat the cheapest of anyone, with Egypt purchasing 240,000 tonnes this week. Russia selling their wheat cheaper to gain market share and get money to continue to fund their war on Ukraine. Funds were also sellers this week on the news as they expect Russia to get business as long as countries are saving money. The Ag Forum released estimates for wheat of 49.5 million acres and a trend yield of 49.2 bu/ac. This news combined with Russia were bearish but with first notice day approaches we could see calmer trade than the past few days soon.

Via Barchart

Cotton

The cotton story has not changed much as the supply/demand story has not changed. There is both a lack of demand and a supply surplus here in the US, which has led to less imports of cotton goods. With the potential recession looming the lack of current demand mixed with that does not paint a great picture for cotton as it continues to trade on the lower end of its recent range.

Equity Markets

Equity Markets were down this week as economic data keeps coming in supporting higher rates. Inflation is sticking around and earnings are mixed as February will post big losses across the major indexes. Many market commentors still believe we are heading lower from several different factors including the Fed, inflation, layoffs, valuations and more. Continue to keep an eye on the strengthening USD.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Eastern corn belt has gotten plenty of moisture so far this winter with the western corn belt needing more heading into the spring.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

27 Jan 2023
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 13 – 26

Corn made small gains over the last 2 weeks as news was quiet outside of South American weather with China being on holiday for Chinese New Year. Exports were better than expected this week, but Mexico continues to look at increasing their corn imports from Brazil. The forecast for rain in Argentina over the weekend will direct the trade to start the week. The news to look for in the coming weeks will be purchases from China and any changes in South American weather. Any developments in Ukraine will have ripple effects across the commodity space, but trying to predict what will happen there is almost impossible.

Via Barchart

Soybeans, like corn, had an up and down 2 week span but ended with modest losses. The uptrend beans have seen since October has been promising but eventually it will run out of steam with Brazil in a good position. If Brazil’s harvest gets off to a fast start we could see a weakening in old crop quickly with new crop following slower. Like corn, bean exports to China as they come out of covid lockdowns and Chinese new year would help provide some support until Brazil starts sending them beans. Keep an eye on any positive trade news from China, don’t expect news out of Brazil to be bullish.

Via Barchart

The cotton chart below shows the trade has stayed between 80 and 90 cents for the last couple of months. Cotton is caught in the middle of the markets thinking there will be a recession, and China coming out of Covid lockdowns with capital to spend on consumable goods. Cotton will need some news to get it out of this range, until then expect this trade to continue. While exports increased last week from the previous it is still half of this time last year, showing the demand situation is very different.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The Dow fell over the last 2 weeks as everyone is playing a guessing game with 1. What the Fed will do and 2. Will there be a recession? The economy is still doing well as jobless claims have not begun to go up and inflation is cooling but still has a way to go. With earnings underway guidance will be important to understand how companies are expecting 2023 to go with jobs and what they think the Fed will do.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

18 Nov 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 4 – 18

Corn strung together several days lower in a row last week with a neutral USDA report in the middle of it. The USDA raised the US yield to 172.3, which was within the range of estimates. While corn had been trading sideways for some time, the move lower remained in its trading range, followed by a bounce back higher this week. The black sea export corridor deal being renewed is welcome news for the world supply chain. Brazil and Argentina got some needed rain while some dry areas missed out. They are still suffering drought conditions, but it is also still early in the year. Exports improved this week from last, as the current price levels attract buyers.

Via Barchart

Soybeans fell over the last two weeks, due to two days of large losses this week. Soybean Oil got hit as world veg oil prices fell, pulling beans down with it. The rain in Argentina helped speed up soybean planting but rain will still be needed moving forward as still about 25% of the country experiences drought. Bean exports, like corn, improved and better than expected this week. The lack of news makes this a difficult market to trade in as there are no overwhelming bullish or bearish factors dictating direction.

Via Barchart

The US cotton supply was raised in last week’s USDA report with better yields and lower demand. The problem in the cotton market right now is demand. While more money is being spent , fewer units are being bought which translates to less consumption. With the continued high energy prices and inflation issues across the world people are prioritizing eating and heating their homes and fueling their cars (good call) over buying new clothes. The potential for a looming world recession in 2023 does not ease demand concerns as we would not see demand for cotton pick up as producers would sit on inventory they currently have. Until we get more clarity on the world outlook and 2023 it is a time to be cautious. The weakening USD will be worth keeping an eye on.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets started off November with gains after a cooler than expected October CPI of 7.7%. While a drop is nice to see it is important to remember the target is 2-3% so we are still much closer to the top than the bottom with a Fed rate rise coming in early December. The markets seem to expect a 50-point hike, but there is still plenty of time for that to change and get priced in before. One big question that remains for the markets looking ahead is “what will December bring?”. Will there be a Santa Clause rally? Will markets fall as investors do some tax loss harvesting? Many investors still think a recession is coming in 2023 and the next month and half could give us a better idea what to expect.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

The Hedged Edge is back online with a guest who could be this podcast’s most important guest of all time. At a time when inflation is running rampant through the world economy, drought conditions are drying up our rivers, and the global supply of grain is scarce. We are tasked with the question, “what the hell is going on in logistics, and is there any relief in sight?”

To help address these questions and more, I am joined today by a man that needs no introduction to most in the physical commodity sector – Woodson Dunavant with the Dunavant Logistics company based in Memphis, TN.

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

04 Nov 2022
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER 21 – NOVEMBER 4

Corn had small losses on the week again as it has been range bound the last month. The market holding at this level certainly is not a bad thing when it traded $1 lower than current levels in July, it just needs a catalyst to push it one way or the other. The catalyst could be next week’s USDA Report as there could always be a surprise or two for the market. Many estimates see the USDA raising production from the October estimates, but by how much will be the question.  Ultimately with US harvest coming to a close and South America ramping up, the global outlook and weather will begin to dominate the markets. The US will also need plenty of moisture over the coming weeks and winter to 1. Raise river levels to help grain exports and 2. Improve subsoil moisture heading into 2023. Exports remain underwhelming and will likely be lowered for the year in next week’s report.

Via Barchart

Unlike Corn, Beans have had a much wider range after an initial flat start to harvest have rallied back hard over the past 2 weeks. This move higher is welcome and appears to be heading toward a test of the highs from early September – can it break through?  The USDA report will be the big news next week along with any news out of South America for weather and China potentially coming out of zero covid restrictions. Like corn, the USDA will likely raise US production next week and may lower exports. For any sustained move higher China will need to be a regular buyer and South American conditions would need to become less favorable.

Via Barchart

Cotton has had quite the week with 4 days that traded limit up at one point. With a lot of speculative positions in the market being short, this could be seen as a short covering rally as specs must exit their positions before expiration. On the physical side, the global cash market is a mess. Mills have massive inventories of both cotton and converted goods with no companies buying. The lack of buying by apparel companies shows their concern for the holiday season as inflation and market uncertainty will weigh on spending this year.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have gained over the last 2 weeks; however, gains were muted after the Fed raised rates another 75 points earlier this week. This was expected but the comments by chair Powell after they came out were more hawkish than expected setting up an interesting point in next month’s meeting. Powell said the Fed is not likely to slow down yet setting up the potential for another 75 points in December, while analysts were leaning towards 50 before he spoke. The unemployment rate did tick higher in October while many companies also announced hiring freezes and grim outlooks for the first half of 2023. Crude oil spiked back above $90 a barrel on Friday continuing to bolster energy stocks. Midterm elections next week will also be closely watched as it may lay out what, if anything, will be done over the next 2 years.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

Podcast

Are the Fed’s hikes starting to dampen inflation? Oil, grains, and metals have all fallen from their highs. But the rarely spoken of Cotton market was one of the first to crack…falling from 1.58/lb to 0.95/lb in just a few short days. We’re digging into this sharp drop and just why and how Cotton is involved in seemingly everything with RCM’s very own cotton king, LOGIC advisors Ron Lawson.

In this episode, Ron is giving us the low down on how and why he believes it’s not Dr. Copper which acts as the global economic barometer, but how Cotton is the real Canary and leading indicator on global demand. In between those talks, we’re covering all things Cotton including crop insurance, irrigated vs dry land, the scam that was Pima and Egyptian Cotton, the process of cotton – which countries have it, which want it, ginning it, spinning it, dyeing it, global commodity merchant co’s pushing it around, and even micro-plastics, climate change, and how Cotton always flows to the cheapest labor source. Finally, we’re walking in some high Cotton putting Ron in the hot seat. Will we ever get the growth back? Tune in to get these critical hot takes — SEND IT!

Via Barchart.com

 

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

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