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22 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Leonard Lumber Report: The futures market had a $39 trading range last week, all up

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

The futures market had a $39 trading range last week, all up. Once we crossed the halfway point in August, the short side had to start rolling or exiting. It is usually a two-week process that works well for the spread but does little for the out rights. The difference this time is that the futures market has been sitting near the bottom for a long time. The next move was up, and the exiting got it started. I have noticed the extreme level of scrutiny held by the industry. Few views this as a supply and demand rally. The focus is on the futures and the typical positioning volatility, me included. This reluctance could keep upward pressure on the market.

Factors:

The trade is reverting back to its historical norm. A $35 move is good, and a $70 move is great. This type of trade allows the industry to make money, or at least it should. Today we face a tremendous cost of doing business throughout the industry. In the past five years, small companies have morphed into significant players with all the costs associated with playing in the big leagues. They now either need higher prices to allow for better revenues, or they need to par costs. If the outlook for 2024 is of steady starts and steady supply, then the $35/$70 model is here for a while.

Thought:

I’m still in the camp that this commodity should trade higher. All commodities have run up and settled higher than their norm. Lumber trading sub $400 is too close to the norm. There have been steadily added costs to subscribe to a higher norm. There is an issue. The higher price of the finished product in most other commodities was due to the higher cost of production. None of the finished products faced a 30% Federal regulation charge. Salad dressing is not higher because of the Federal regulations put on soybeans. You cannot expect the commodity to carry that added cost. And that is most likely why the price is in the $400’s and not $600.

Makeup:

It looks like the industry is going for the Texas hedge while the funds continued to add. That should mean the spread goes $10 over to $20 under again.

Technical:

The chart formation calls for trade through the $550 area. This is a grind and most likely will take work to get there. The wildcard is if the funds liquidate outright. For now, the points are:

  • 542.80
  • 547.20
  • 555.30

RSI 65%

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

21 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Dow Jones, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 4 – 21

Corn had a rough two weeks with the cool and wet weather that covered large areas of the US coming just in time on a stressed crop. The August 11 USDA Report came in with a 175.1 bu/acre US yield, slightly below trade estimates. This yield seems very reasonable with the early drought stress and the recent rains to help stabilize the crop. The scorching heat and dry weather coming to most of the US the next week+ will stress the crop but the areas that are no longer experiencing drought conditions (see drought charts below) are positioned to handle it. The ProFarmer crop tour is this week and will give insights into what to expect from this crop and give insights we do not get from the USDA. If the USDA updates the planted acres lower from 94 million in September that will be news the market has eyes on.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have held together well over the last couple of months with the low acreage number supporting it. The weather was not great for beans early on, but like corn, the last couple of weeks have been very beneficial and the heat over the next 10 days can cause some issues. The USDA updated their yield estimates to 50.9 bu/acre, below the trade estimates and previous report but also a reasonable number with how the growing season has gone so far. Bean demand appears to be increasing and if this continues into harvest, momentum behind beans could give it another push that corn seems to be missing. The ProFarmer crop tour will be the news this week along with the hot dry weather, an adjustment to acres down the road is a variable that can change the look of this crop.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have struggled the last few weeks as tech stocks stopped pulling the markets higher and seasonal trends took over. Earnings season is almost over with only a few big names left to report. Inflation and the Fed will be the news moving forward as markets are still unsure what their next move is.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

14 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: INCREDIBLE LACK OF MOVEMENT IN THIS MARKET

Lumber Weekly

Last Week:

The market had a $29 range but only closed 50 cents lower for the week. What is incredible is the lack of movement in this market. I keep searching for the correct equation to find value and have missed that a flat market has no value. Deals aren’t deals in a slow trading market.  The conversations today are either about the massive underbuilt conditions out there or the numerous economic headwinds the industry could be facing. Let’s take a look at a few issues.

Factors:

Euro wood:

What once was considered a transitory issue is now becoming much stickier than expected. It almost has a bug-kill timber feel to it. That shit would never go away. That seems to be Euro today. While they have been able to reduce the amount at the ports, it won’t be enough when the next ships arrive. Will the euro mills keep shipping at a loss? The answer is yes. The slow European and Asian markets are forcing the cash flow issue into the equation.

*The supply of euro does not dictate prices in our industry, but it adds pressure to the buyer.

Lumber buyer patterns:

The “great run-up” in 2021 and then again in 2022 change the amount of risk the buyers would take. It went from the industry standard of 3 months to 30 days. In a bull cycle, the shorter term keeps upward pressure on the cash market. They are forced to be in all the time buying. In a down cycle, it adds to the weakness because while they are in to buy more often, the quantity isn’t significant enough to tighten up the entire market.

Demand:

Demand is good out there, no doubt. The problem is between VMI programs, contracts, and the wacky and wild euro wholesaler; the lumber buyers can only get in trouble if they become aggressive. Without building momentum, the market is range bound. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

Housing Dynamics:

Points:

  • 2008 to 2012 was a housing depression. Equity in homes hit a 30-year low.
  • From 2012 to 2022 the industry saw record-low mortgage rates.
  • 2020 saw covid and a major shift in the homeownership trend.
  • 2016 to present the industry suffered from a labor shortage and logistic issues. That kept the pace of construction well below the growing demand. It also could not keep pace with the growing number of household formations.
  • Today there is a record amount of $$ in the system and now we see most of it headed toward wage increases.

The key takeaway is that this is a great industry to be in today. It should stay statistically underbuilt and underbought for years. That doesn’t mean prices will go up. It just means that there will be trading.

Market Make Up:

The futures open interest is closing in on 8000 as the funds are up to 2600. That is the highest number of shorts they have held in the new contract. The other side was picked up by the industry and the spec buying. Even the swap dealers got involved. They added most of the shorts in the hole. One would think there could be a bounce once they begin to roll.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

11 Aug 2023
Agriculture, Market Commentary, Other News rcmagserv 0 comment

Transportation & Logistics: The Role of Moving Agricultural Commodities

Introduction

While producing crops and other commodities is essential, the transportation industry behind the scenes plays a critical role in getting it where it needs to go on time. Whether by truck, railroad, barges, or large over sea vessels, the transport of raw commodities is how the world is fed. Several commodities must be transported in a timely manner relying on a complex supply chain environment. This blog discusses the main areas listed above and their role in feeding the world.

Trucking

According to a report by the USDA titled “The Importance of Highways to U.S. Agriculture,” published in December 2020, the trucking industry plays a pivotal role in the agriculture sector of the United States. Trucks are the primary means of transporting commodities by weight, accounting for 83% of agriculture freight by weight and over 50% of agricultural freight ton-miles.

Although they are typically used for short distances, trucks are essential in the movement of commodities. In fact, even for grains commonly transported by rail and barge over long distances, over 70% of cargo is moved by trucks. This highlights the significant contribution of trucks to the transportation of agricultural goods, particularly for meat, poultry, fish, and seafood, where the truck mode share is greater than 95%. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trucks-key-movement-agricultural-products-usda-report-finds

While railroads, barges, and other vessels are the preferred method for long-distance transport, almost every commodity touches a truck at some point in the transportation process. The US roads and highways are important in making trucking efficient; as the world progresses, so must the trucking process. As electric trucks and autonomous vehicles gain market share, this will be one way the trucking industry will change in the years to come, as efficiency will be important in feeding the growing world.

Railroad

Railroads cover millions of miles across the US and the world and transport both people and goods to where they need to be. Most agriculture production is done away from the coasts but needs to get there to be exported; this is where rail becomes an important player.

Corn, wheat, and soybeans are the most common farm products shipped via rail.  The chart below shows the dispersion of amounts on the rails from 2015-2020.

The following chart shows the total tonnage shipped via rail of specific commodities. Clearly, rail freight for corn is monumental in its distribution across the country and world. Corn is used in so many goods, from the gas we put in our car to the food we eat, that getting it where it needs to go in a timely manner is crucial.

While railroads play a significant role in transporting raw farm commodities, it is also a major form of transport for materials used in the energy sector, such as coal and oil. In contrast, the U.S. has an extensive rail system, and part of the infrastructure upgrades over the next couple of decades must improve rail efficiency to handle the increase in production expected.

https://agtransport.usda.gov/stories/s/Agriculture-on-Rail/25z9-isvp/#:~:text=Railroads%20Support%20Export%20and%20Domestic,the%20Texas%20Gulf%20for%20export

Barges

When discussing the role of barges, it is important to know the primary waterways that are used: the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio Rivers. While other rivers below play their own role in the shipping of agricultural products, these rivers’ locations make them crucial to the supply chain.

The rivers and locks system can be complicated during flooding, drought, or maintenance and can disrupt these shipping lanes. While these rivers are not only used for agriculture shipping, but there are also elevators all along these rivers to make the distribution to ports easier. Cities like Los Angeles, New Orleans, Savannah, and New York play a major role in the US exporting grain worldwide.

Like with railroads, continued improvements in the barge infrastructure will be important as the U.S. continues to produce and export more grains as the world grows.

Oversea Vessels

In 2021, the U.S. exported over 60 million metric tons of grain and oilseeds, making it one of the top exporting countries in the world. Most of these exports were transported by sea vessels, with some of the largest ships capable of carrying over 200,000 metric tons of cargo at a time. These vessels provide a cost-effective means of transportation for large volumes of goods over long distances and play a vital role in connecting the U.S. to markets worldwide.

The movement of agricultural commodities via sea vessels has its challenges, however. Issues such as port congestion, container shortages, and weather disruptions can all impact the efficient movement of goods. Additionally, changes in global trade policies or economic conditions can lead to shifts in trade flows and impact the demand for shipping services. Despite these challenges, the use of overseas vessels remains a critical component of the global supply chain and will continue to play a vital role in the transportation of agricultural commodities for years to come.

Contact RCM Ag Services for Your Transportation and Logistics Needs

If you’re looking for reliable and efficient transportation and logistics services for your agricultural commodities, look no further than RCM Ag Services. Our team of experts is dedicated to providing the highest quality services to meet your specific needs and ensure your products are delivered on time and in optimal condition.

Contact us today at [email protected] to learn more about our transportation and logistics solutions and how we can help you streamline your supply chain and increase efficiency. We look forward to working with you and supporting your agricultural operations.

 

07 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The quest for today’s value remains elusive

Lumber Weekly

  • The quest for today’s value remains elusive.

Last Week:

The futures markets fell another $19.50 as a weak cash market dominated. The makeup of the trade was the funds selling while the industry bought back shorts or got long. In this part of the cycle, all the focus is on the cash market. I am surprised at the extent of the erosion. In a hurry to raise prices, the mills did not establish a base level. The chase is on to find that level. The futures guys are hoping for a lessening of the fund selling next week could bottom futures. While I agree, it could be a tough week ahead.

Factors:

The struggle continues to determine the value of this commodity. The factors affecting the price are less production out of Canada—the slowing of Euro shipments, and the JIT inventory management strategy. The demand data shows a steady pace of construction, and reports from the field are of a good wood flow. Under these conditions, the commodity’s price will remain at or above breakeven. The reality is that the price continues to drift into the red for the mills. The lower price is also digging into the margins of most of the industry. The Milton Freeman School of Economics says that inflated profits are met with long-term deflation. That may be the easy answer here.

We have to go back to the actual supply and demand factors. The supply gap in housing continues to widen as family formation outpaces construction. There are limits to construction. Labor and government regulations are extending the timeline of all buildings. That lag is very positive long-term for housing. I did see something thought-provoking for the first-time home buyer. Here goes…

The first-time home buyer has roughly $100,000 saved for a down payment on a $350,000 home. These are estimates based on today’s data. If the buyer does an analysis, they see that they are earning 6% on $100,000 today. Buying a home, they would have $250,000 debt at roughly 8%. That is the 7.5% mortgage and the additional home expenses. Now the appreciation of a home averages 5% historically. At 8% the buyer loses 3% a year. If they do not buy a home, they make 6% on $100,000 with potential saving increases.

Summary:

This year’s actions of the lumber market highlight an industry preparing for less demand. While there isn’t data confirming a downturn, the marketplace stays guarded. I did look for less demand by the third quarter. I also looked for less supply to offset the decrease. This market doesn’t react that smoothly. At some point, the multifamily sector will show a slowing. Then the single-family sector will see a pause. In a JIT environment, prices will remain under pressure. That could be around for a long time. The good news is the market will continue to get caught short. The middle of the market can continue to benefit from those spikes.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

04 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Corn, Grain, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Podcast, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 20 – AUGUST 4

As quickly as corn rallied to get back over $5.50, the rains and favorable forecasts for August led it back below $5 just as quickly. The rains in late July provided much needed moisture over much of the corn belt, but as you can see in the drought charts below, varying levels of drought conditions remain. The forecast has shifted drier for August but after a record hot July, August is forecasted to be cooler. Reports of how much damage the first half of summer did to this crop are all over the place, which usually means it is somewhere in the middle. A 180+ yield is probably off the table, but a 172 yield seems to be just as unlikely unless the forecasts change to hot and dry for a long stretch soon. Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian ports in Odesa and the Danube River continue as the markets seem to shrug off any new damage. Over the weekend any forecast changes, new developments in Ukraine or world news will determine what the trade does to start the week.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have a similar story to corn this week but were able to avoid the late June collapse that corn saw thanks to the low acreage number. StoneX estimate for bean yield this week was 50.5 bu/ac which would be a supportive number for beans, especially if the acreage number is accurate. China has begun showing up as frequent buyers in export reports helping the demand story that was questionable on world economic worries not too long ago. The lack of bullish news is good news for the bears as no news markets rarely tend to move higher. Weather in August will be important for this crop and next week’s USDA report will give us more information on US production.

Via Barchart

Recent News

Click HERE to listen to RCM Ag Services’ Jody Lawrence join AgriTalk a couple weeks ago to discuss the current market.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and beans lower for similar reasons. The markets have shrugged off Russian aggression of late but will be watching over the weekend for any escalation.

Equity Markets

The equity markets suffered losses this week with a big down day on Wednesday when Fitch downgraded US debt to AA+ and earnings continue to roll in. The job market seems to be moderating as hiring was slightly weaker than the previous month. The markets are looking for numbers that will keep the economy and markets going while also giving the Fed the signal to stop raising rates. This is a fine line that can feel like walking on eggshells with a long-predicted recession still the worry of most investors.

Via Barchart

Drought Monitor

The drought monitors below show the change in drought conditions over the last 2 weeks.

Podcast

With every new year, there are new opportunities, and there’s no better time to dive deeply into the stock market and tax-saving strategies for 2023 than now. In our latest episode of the Hedged Edge, we’re joined by Tim Webb, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner from our sister company, RCM Wealth Advisors. Tim is no stranger to advising institutions and agribusinesses where he has been implementing no-nonsense financial planning strategies and market investment disciplines to help Clients build and maintain wealth and reach financial goals since

Inside this jam-packed session, we’re taking a break from commodities, and talking about the world of equities, interest rates, tax savings, and business planning strategies. Plus, Jeff and Tim delve into a variety of topics like:

  • The current state of the markets within the wealth management industry
  • Is there a beacon of hope, or is it all doom and gloom for the markets?
  • Other strategies to think about outside of the stock market and so much more!

 

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

 

02 Aug 2023
Agriculture, CME, Grain, Market Commentary, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Uncategorized rcmagserv 0 comment

Agricultural Risk: The Role of Intermediaries

Agricultural Risk: The Role of Intermediaries

Agriculture is an inherently risky business. Growers and farmers face a wide range of risks, including weather-related events, changes in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions. These risks not only affect the farmers but also impact every actor along the supply chain, from processors and distributors to retailers and consumers. This blog will discuss the importance of intermediaries in managing agricultural risk.

Several types of intermediaries play a crucial role in managing agricultural risk. Futures commission merchants (FCMs) are one such intermediary. They provide access to commodity futures markets, where farmers can manage price risk by buying or selling futures contracts. Exchanges, such as the Chicago Board of Trade, also play a critical role in managing risk by providing a platform for price discovery and risk management.

Types of Intermediaries:

Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs):

FCMs are regulated entities that act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers in commodity futures markets. They facilitate trades, provide margin financing, and manage the risk exposure of market participants.

Exchanges:

Commodity exchanges are marketplaces where buyers and sellers can trade standardized commodity contracts, such as futures and options. Examples of exchanges include the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Brokers/Farm Advisors:

Brokers and farm advisors provide hedging services and market knowledge to help growers and other market participants manage price risks. They can help with market analysis, risk assessments, and hedging strategies.

Originators/Merchandisers:

Originators and merchandisers are intermediaries who connect buyers and sellers of agricultural commodities. They can help farmers and growers find markets for their products and help buyers source the commodities they need.

Co-ops:

Co-ops are farmer-owned organizations that provide services such as grain storage, handling, and marketing. In some cases, they function as elevators, buying grain from farmers and selling it to end-users.

University Extension Offices:

University extension offices provide research, education, and outreach services to the agricultural community. They can help farmers and growers stay informed about new technologies, best practices, and market trends.

Importance in the Big Picture:

Intermediaries are essential to the smooth functioning of agricultural markets. They help manage risk exposure along the supply chain and facilitate the movement of commodities from producers to end-users. Farmers and growers would face more price volatility and uncertainty without intermediaries, and end-users would face supply shortages and price spikes.

RCM Ag Services: Your Trusted Partner for Agricultural Intermediary Services

At RCM Ag Services, we provide a range of intermediary services to the agricultural community. We offer futures and options brokerage, cash grain marketing, risk management consulting, and crop insurance services. Our team of experienced professionals can help farmers and growers manage price risks and navigate the complex world of agricultural markets.

 

31 Jul 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The low price of lumber is straining everyone’s bottom line

Lumber Weekly

  • There is a battle in the Housing market pitting a tighter credit environment against a capital-rich ecosystem.
  • Excess inventories grow over time. The effect also grows over time. It didn’t this time. 
  • The low price of lumber is straining everyone’s bottom line. 

Last Week

The futures market was under pressure all week. The two drivers were the lack of a cash trade and the funds reentering a short position. If we look at the open interest, the funds built a short position (+408) while the hedgers took profits (-438). That’s based on data ending on Tuesday. Both numbers will grow again in next week’s report. That sums it up. The key takeaway is that a pile of wood is now unhedged and cheaper.

So, what does it look like today? The negatives are the hot weather, slowing construction, the euro arriving at the port, and an industry that just completed a buy round. The positives are the continued steady of wood out the door and the fact that we dropped $79 (futures) already.

The market is sitting in the middle of the cycle. What’s different this time is the middle now sits $20 higher than last time. However slow it may be, this market is building value at higher levels. The fund pressure may change that but only in the short run.

Technical: 

There are contrasting views this week. The longer-term view is just now breaking down momentum-wise. With an RSI of 49.30%, it calls for a return to the lows. Shorter-term, the market is grinding down to a bottom. This low volatility quiet trade would generally slow the selling and cause profit-taking. The momentum indicators are trying to look positive. The only issue is that most negative cycles don’t turn when hovering at a 23% RSI. With the funds around, we could easily see a spike lower. If you liked it at $520, you’ll love it at $500 and even better at $480.

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

25 Jul 2023
Agriculture, Cash Basis, Corn, Grain, Livestock, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Other News, Research, Risk Management, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weather, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Listen: Jody Lawrence recently joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk to discuss current markets

Recently RCM Ag Services’ director of research, Jody Lawrence, jumped on “AgriTalk with Chip Flory” after they both spoke at an event in Memphis for Helena Agribusiness. During the discussion Jody and Chip dive into the recent events in the commodities space hitting several topics including:

  • The war in Ukraine continuing to impact the world grain supply. The suspension of the export corridor and escalation of the war and its impact on markets.
  • Drought conditions in the US at the start of the year damaged the crop in many areas but how much? Is 177.5 bpa still too high?
  • The recent USDA Report numbers and did 94 million acres of corn really get planted?
  • Balance Sheets and the disconnect between them and what the cash market and basis tells us
  • And More

The audio is below to listen to parts of their discussion and get more insight into their thoughts on what to expect moving forward.

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-1

https://omny.fm/shows/market-rally/agritalk-7-18-23-jody-lawrence-2

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or [email protected].

24 Jul 2023
Agriculture, CME, Lumber, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Risk Management, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: After a six-week run, the cash market shows signs of fatigue

  • After a six-week run, the cash market shows signs of fatigue.
  • The futures market had a $52 range from high to low, confirming that the volatility is returning.
  • Reports from the field are of home builders putting on the full-court press for yearend while data shows a potential future slowdown.

Cash

At six weeks, this cash round has been longer than most. Inventory management plans are causing small bottlenecks every few months. If this mechanism stays in place, it may be a while before the cash market recovers. The catalysis of these last two buys in January and June was from a supply issue and commodity funds covering. Once that energy is gone, the market tends to settle back down. The cash market back below breakeven isn’t sustainable but the fact.

Economists are talking about a potential period of commodity deflation coming. Historically, the lumber commodity enters that disinflationary period earlier than most other commodities. It also exits earlier. Hovering under breakeven for as long as it has, lumber is probably in the middle of the cycle.

Volatility

Lumber is not a volatile trade. The normal ranges are small and defined. That all changed when covid hit. This typically controlled commodity was hit with numerous issues. That created many wide swings, and volatility went off the charts. It took the last 14 months of sideways trading to bring the volatility down and, as usual, took it to record lows. That is why last week’s $52 move is essential. Today we look at it as bringing vol back to historic levels. If the swings continue and get more comprehensive, it should be a red flag to the part of this industry that is affected most by higher prices.

Demand

“Heat is not a factor this year.” There has been an uptick in the building since spring that hasn’t let up. The typical heat-caused slowdowns have not come into play. The push for completions is on. The starts number has always been a lagging indicator, but this time we could see a more dramatic drop going into the fall because of today’s rapid pace. We are entering a time of year when production capacity moves back up. It could be a struggle for the industry to digest more wood and less demand.

*This industry has yet to experience the effects of the higher rates. We could have already landed, but the industry is trading as if there is more negative to come. The lack of any honest follow-through is an industry on the defensive.

Technical: 

Today the focal technical points are the 200- and 100-day moving averages. The 200 sits at 557.40, and the 100 sits at 540.30. This market is in a downtrend which highlights the 100-day average. I will look for some added momentum if the market closes under it. A few weeks back, the call was if the market rallied through the $600 mark, it would gain upside momentum. The features of the trade are the same. The close on Friday was a bit friendly, so it may pay to practice patience before committing to the short side

Daily Bulletin:

https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf

Commitment of Traders:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

About the Leonard Report:

The Leonard Lumber Report is a column that focuses on the lumber futures market’s highs and lows and everything else in between. Our very own, Brian Leonard, risk analyst, will provide weekly commentary on the industry’s wood product sectors.

 

Brian Leonard

[email protected]

312-761-2636

Disclaimer

RCM Ag Services is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions are complex and involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. There are no guarantees of profit. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. You should not rely on any of the information herein as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Reliance Capital Markets II LLC shall not be held responsible for any actions taken based on this website or attached links. Parties acting on this electronic communication are responsible for their own actions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.