Tag: wheat

12 Aug 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUG 4 – AUG 12 USDA REPORT

188.8 bu/acre… Hard to find a silver lining in the report for corn as the USDA ripped the band-aid off from the start instead of slow playing it. The average trade guess was 184-185 bu/ac which led to a big selloff seeing new contract lows. On top of the big yield number the USDA took the FSA planted acreage data and added 3 million acres in planted corn. The extra yield and acres could add nearly an extra 1 billion bushels of corn to the US and world ending stocks. The report did nothing to help the direction corn has been trading.

Via Barchart

The bean yield was also above pre-report estimates, coming in at 53.6 bu/acre. Prices were higher though following the 3 million acre planted acreage cut and total production cut by 90 million bushels. The market was caught off guard by the 3 million acre shift as evidenced in the opposite price reaction to the report numbers. The bean rally will give farmers a chance to catch up on sales but it will also motivate more acres to be planted in South America on stronger prices.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to perform well as AI and tech companies are still the major movers. Nvidia and Microsoft are now a combined 15+% of the S&P 500 index, causing some to worry about concentration, but luckily they are performing well so right now a rising tide raises all boats (money in S&P ETFs).

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat was in line with re-report estimates and had no major surprises. The weakness in corn will continue to weigh on wheat however.
  • Cotton saw a boost post report after the USDA lowered planted and harvested acres. Production was trimmed by 1.39 million bales to 13.21 million bales.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

04 Aug 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: JULY 18 – AUGUST 4

Corn prices have drifted lower since Mid-July with no major weather issues and no major trade deal news. The corn crop ratings remain strong with about 73% of the US crop rated good/excellent and slking and dough formation ahead of average. Exports have slowed and funds have kept their short position about even last week. With the recent heat dissipating giving way to a cooler week, this crop has not been made yet but has not faced any prolonged growth challenges which continues to fuel the estimates into the 184-185 bu/acre. While this will be an impressive crop, from talking to growers across the country there are trouble spots due to disease and timing of rains which would help us get back to the low 180s which would give the market a bump. The market has been limping lower and will likely continue until something in the news cycle changes.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have struggled lately as there has not been any news to boost the market. Exports this week were better but until China shows up as a buyer the demand for US beans is struggling on the global market. South America had a strong crop giving China more supply to buy so China may not show up until they have to unless prices fall enough to make them step in. Crop ratings remain strong, but the next month of rain will be important for pod filling and to get the crop across the finish line.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Equity markets continued to reach new highs before a sizeable pullback to end last week with the news of Trump firing the head of the BLS. AI and tech names continue to lead the way. Magnificent 7 stocks have had mixed reactions to earnings but nobody is sounding the alarm yet about tariffs as guidance remains steady.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat has limped lower with corn and beans but saw good exports this week amid Ukraine’s sluggish exports.
  • The USD has strengthened in the last week but is still well below its year high. Historically this would have been supportive of agriculture exports but there are other factors in play this year.
  • The August WASDE report should provide some clarity and at least provide some new news for the market to digest and trade on for a bit.

 

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

30 Jun 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 13 – 30

Last week was rough for commodities as corn dropped to make new contract lows in Dec ’25. The charts do not look good for corn and there is no good news to help either. There are no major weather concerns and South America is producing another record crop allowing for ample ending stocks in the world. The USDA June 30th Planted Acreage Report stated that corn has 95.203 million planted acres. This number is neutral to bearish as the market was expecting a slightly higher number but anything 95+ with the weather to this point in the year looks for a huge crop. The bears have the momentum right now but there are some trouble areas and a long summer ahead to bring the bulls some help.

Via Barchart

Soybeans gave back the recent gains as well last week before the report on June 30th. Beans will likely continue to trade in the range they have been until we receive news to direct the market either on the trade agreement side or weather. The Planted Acres report had 83.38 million acres, slightly below expectations. The tax bill going through congress right now may give beans some help by getting rid of a 45z tax credit loophole but until this thing passes everything is on the table to get cut from it. Weather is good for the next 2 weeks so the market needs positive news from a US and China trade deal to give it a boost.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

Markets set new highs after another V shape recovery following the liberation day tariff dip. Several tech stocks have led the way outside of the Magnificent 7 as AI continues to dominate headlines with spending continuing and companies talking about how it can help improve their margins.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in higher than expected at 10.12 million acres. Cotton has been stuck below 70 cents/lb for a while and while the acreage number came in higher than expected we know there are issues with the crop and a lot of abandonment.
  • Wheat, like corn and beans, yawned at the report as the numbers were close to the average estimate with no major changes. After a mid June rally, the weakness to end the month was disappointing dropping 50 cents from the highs.
  • The weakness in the USD over the past few months will be something to keep an eye on as the year continues with it trading at levels we have not seen since early 2022.
  • Tensions in the Middle East continue despite a drawdown in aggression.

Drought Monitor

Here is the most recent drought monitor.

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

11 Jun 2025

Grain Elevator Strategies Amid Market Volatility: What Producers Need to Know

In today’s uncertain commodity landscape, the grain elevator remains a vital tool for managing harvest logistics, marketing strategies, and price risk. Whether you’re delivering to a local co-op or negotiating bids from commercial grain elevators, understanding how these facilities operate—and how they fit into your overall grain marketing plan—has never been more important.

What Is a Grain Elevator?

A grain elevator is a facility that stores and sometimes processes grain before it is sold to domestic or international buyers. These elevators play a critical role in the grain supply chain, acting as both storage hubs and pricing intermediaries. Most elevators offer a combination of cash bids, forward contracts, and basis contracts that help producers secure better pricing or manage timing for delivery.

Why Grain Elevators Matter Now

With 2025 shaping up to be another volatile year for grain markets—driven by weather disruptions, global demand uncertainty, tariffs, and fluctuating input costs—knowing how to leverage your local grain elevators can make or break your margin.

Key market factors impacting the value of grain elevator strategies today:

Volatile Basis Levels: Basis—the difference between futures price and local cash price—is widening across many Midwest regions. Grain elevators are adjusting their basis bids frequently, and producers who can monitor and act quickly may be able to lock in stronger prices.       

Tight Storage and Logistics: As more producers hold on to grain waiting for price recovery, storage capacity at grain elevators is tightening. Elevators may offer incentives for early delivery or penalize delayed deliveries, making planning essential.        

Increased Use of Risk Management Tools: In a high-risk environment, more producers are pairing traditional delivery contracts with options, futures, and OTC products to protect upside while limiting downside.

Maximizing Your Grain Elevator Strategy with RCM Ag

At RCM Ag, we work closely with producers to integrate grain elevator marketing into a larger, customized risk management plan. We don’t just help you understand your basic options—we help you anticipate them.

Our team monitors elevator bids, basis trends, and futures prices, giving you the insight needed to:

          -Decide when and where to deliver grain for optimal pricing

          -Evaluate storage costs vs. market carry

          -Layer in futures and options to protect against price drops

          -Structure hedge-to-arrive (HTA) or basis contracts with more clarity

 

We also offer access to models that help you compare net returns across different elevators and delivery windows, turning a once static decision into a dynamic marketing lever.

Looking Ahead: Harvest 2025

As we approach the heart of the growing season, it’s not too early to think about post-harvest logistics. Now is the time to:

           -Evaluate contracts offered by nearby grain elevators

           -Estimate your on-farm storage vs. elevator usage

           -Talk with an RCM Ag advisor about integrating your elevator marketing with hedging strategies

 

Ready to Build a Smarter Grain Marketing Plan?

Whether you’re marketing soybeans in Iowa or corn in Nebraska, RCM Ag helps producers make smarter decisions at the intersection of grain elevators, cash markets, and derivatives.

Contact our team to start planning your strategy before the combines roll.

 

Relevant links:

https://rcmagservices.com/ag-market-update-april-14-29/

https://rcmagservices.com/a-closer-look-into-the-evolution-of-farming-equipment/

31 Mar 2025

Ag Market Update: March 12 – March 31

The March 31 Stocks and Acreage Report did not provide any fireworks as there were no major surprises in the report with the USDA saying there will be 95.326 million acres planted. While this is a large acreage number the trade and talk the last couple weeks was about the likelihood of the USDA coming out with a 95 number. While the report could have been worse, stocks coming in exactly in line with the estimate did not pile on with bad news. As we head toward planting, weather, South America and tariff wars will be the main movers now.

Via Barchart

Soybeans came in at 83.495 million acres as their lack of profitability at current prices is making farmers switch some acres to corn. As you can see from the chart below there have not been much help for beans but if this acreage number is close to what we see, it is hard to think they would dip much below $10. The post report action was disappointing as beans continued lower.

Via Barchart

Wheat had bullish news from the report as acreage came in 1.125 million below estimates. Wheat has some bullish world news for price with emergence concerns in the Black Sea and US Plains, despite recent price action. News out of the Black Sea and any issues with the US crop will be market movers for now.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue their volatile swings while President Trump’s “day of liberation” approaches on April 2 when tariffs are supposed to be going in place. Volatility will be the name of the game as many unknowns remain in the trade wars.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Cotton acres came in at 9.867 million. This is 1.315 million acres less than last year. Cotton needs to see demand pick up to get back and stay over 70 cents/lb.

Drought Monitor

As planting approaches the drought monitor begins to become important again as subsoil moisture always seems to be a problem somewhere.

PRICES

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

13 Mar 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: FEB 14 – March 12 USDA REPORT

First Glance:

Quiet report with no real changes made in production. The dark cloud over the market of tariffs was not addressed in a major way in this report as the demand picture remains blurred by how long the trade war could last. Nothing from the report changes the trade in a meaningful way for corn, soybeans or wheat.

Corn             24/25 US Corn Stocks:  1.540 BBU (1.516 BBU Estimate)

                       24/25 World Corn Stocks:  288.94 MMT (289.93 MMT Estimate)

                       24/25 Brazil Corn Prod: 126 MMT (126.07 Estimate)

                       24/25 Argentina Corn Prod: 50 MMT (49 Estimate)

 

  • Corn had a boring report with balance sheets remaining unchanged across the board. Global corn stocks were slightly lower and China imports were 2 mmt lower. Corn needs to get through technical resistance at the 50 day moving average ($4.59 ½) to see a move higher, it is currently trading at $4.55.

 

Beans        24/25 US Bean Stocks:  380 MBU (379 MBU Estimate)

                    24/25 World Bean Stocks:  121.41 MMT (124.56 MMT Estimate)

                    24/25 Brazil Bean Prod: 169 MMT (169.18 Estimate)

                    24/25 Argentina Bean Prod: 49 MMT (48.88 Estimate)

 

  • Beans did not receive much news as US bean stocks remained the same while lowering world ending stocks 2.93 mmt. The one item of note is that the USDA lowering the seed usage 3 mbu, potentially hinting at a lower bean acre number.

 

Wheat        24/25 US Wheat Stocks:  819 MBU (797 MBU Estimate)

                     24/25 World Wheat Stocks:  260.08 MMT (257.62 MMT Estimate)

 

  • Wheat was slightly changed this month with larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced exports and an increase in ending stocks. Exports were lowered for the EU, Russia and the United States. While not by large amounts (0.9 million tonnes) it was enough to move the market slightly lower with no big news in corn or beans.

Overview:

A quiet report as the market looks elsewhere for news to dictate trade. As China gets involved in the tariff war with Canada and Trump steps up tariffs on some imports while delaying others, there remains more questions than answers. News from the White House will be the main market mover moving forward until the planting intentions report at the end of the month. While South American weather is not a problem currently that is always a variable to keep an eye on as their second crop begins to take shape.

Note from the report: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.” This is important because US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed until April 2 on all products covered by the USMCA meaning theses numbers are estimates if this is resolved before then.

Equity Markets

The equity markets have given up all gains since the election in November as trade wars and tariffs dominate the headlines with the chip stocks and market leader Nvidia getting hit hard as recession fears ramp up. The global markets, after lagging the US markets for several years coming out of Covid, have ramped up recently, having a better start to 2025.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The tariff war is up and running as everybody tries to out tariff each other. How long this lasts will ultimately decide how much economic damage is done.
  • Canada has a new Prime Minister after Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney from the liberal party took the position.

17 Feb 2025

AG MARKET UPDATE: JANUARY 27 – FEBRUARY 14

Corn rode the wave higher following the updated USDA numbers in the January report with old crop prices settling into a range and 2025 steadily moving higher. The funds are long 1.8 billion bushels and staying long which is helping this market higher with the general fear being a huge corn acreage number for this year that could present a problem. South American weather remains consistent with non-threatening forecasts while the US has a striking cold few days coming. There are multiple items supporting a continued grind higher from here, but funds have their hand on the scale so keeping an eye on what they do and what the technicals are saying will be important as well as harvest data out of South America. It is never too early to look at making sales for the 2025 crop year once you know your breakeven. You can always look at re-owning it on paper if the market really makes moves higher.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have been trading flat since the January USDA Report bump. South America’s record crop present price challenges to the US as we are not the main supplier for the world anymore. A renewed trade war with China would certainly have negative effects again on the soybean market. South America yield numbers and any tariff wars will be the main news in the market until planting begins. Beans inability to continue the rally like corn is not surprising but the corn-bean price ratio that we are seeing is going to make for some interesting conversations when planting is decided.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been volatile as we start the year with the Magnificent 7 taking a break while managers repositioning for expected moves (or lack thereof) from the Fed. With the constant talk of tariffs and then delays to implementation, it provides a volatile market within different sectors.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Wheat has moved higher recently with record cold weather and winterkill concern driving it to a technical breakout.
  • Livestock prices have pulled back this month but are still at strong prices as the head count in the US remains on the small side.
  • Tariff announcements remain at the top of mind of the markets as uncertainty is the main issue with no clear guidance and kicking the can down the road.

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

10 Dec 2024

AG MARKET UPDATE: NOVEMBER 18 – DECEMBER 10

Corn has had a good month but needs some more help to get over the $4.50 hump that it bumped against after Tuesday’s Dec USDA report. The bullish trade leading into the report was hoping the USDA would find better numbers for ethanol and US exports, but they underestimated the demand numbers with the US ending stocks coming in 168 million bushels below estimates for US stocks. World stocks were also lower by 268 million bushels. While these stocks numbers are still very strong, they have tightened enough to raise the floor for the meantime while corn could trade between $4.30-$4.55 heading into the new year.

Via Barchart

Soybeans’ last few weeks of trade between $9.80 and $10 has not provided much bullish optimism. There were no surprises in the Dec USDA report as large South American crop expectations and the US bean carryout doubling from 2023 are still bearish influences. Soybeans have a tough road ahead as South America is on pace to produce another record crop, and the incoming administration will likely not be biofuel friendly in the US. With all the recent investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, there is a cloud that hangs over those areas that we are not sure if it is nothing and will blow over or a storm that may linger.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have continued higher with some recent weaknesses in the largest stocks while strength in the market has broadened. Analysts are beginning to release their outlooks for 2025, while plenty still feel good about the market do not expect another year of 20+% returns like we saw in ’23 and ’24 (so far) after the down year in ’22.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The Assad regime in Syria is over. Israel and Hamas appear close to reaching a temporary ceasefire. The fallout of both will be watched by energy markets as many questions will emerge in the region.
  • There was a slight cut to US wheat stocks, but world stocks are as expected, and comfortable as low Russian cash prices continue to reflect their ample supplies.

 

Drought Monitor

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

12 Sep 2024

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 26 – SEPTEMBER 12

Corn has gotten back above $4.00 in a struggling market that needs good news to propel it back to the mid $4s. The USDA raised US corn yield to 183.6 bu/ac up from 183.1 bu/ac in last month’s report. In the USDA’s eyes the crop is getting bigger as struggling areas will be more than made up for by the best areas across the corn belt. Despite the higher US yield numbers, the corn trade following the report was welcome to see as it did not move much lower on larger numbers. If corn can bounce off or hold this $4 level then we can probably expect it to hang around here as planting gets rolling until we know what is actually in the field and if the numbers are closer to 180 or 183.6.

Via Barchart

Soybeans have seen a nice 50+ cent rally off recent lows with dryness in areas causing a little concern with pod fill and some pickup in demand. The USDA kept yield the same at 53.2 bu/ac as they agree with Pro Farmer tour that a massive crop is out there. Like corn, this recent bounce off lows is encouraging but may setup a range bound trade until harvest gets rolling and we have a better idea on the true yield. The USDA did slightly lower US ending stocks in both 23/24 and 24/25. Continued exports and any issues to South American planting are needed to drive beans higher in the current market.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster lately with the tech/semiconductor trade having quite a bit of volatility while some rotation occurs with the Fed rate cuts expected to begin this month.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate this month

Wheat

  • Wheat has been the one positive market lately, hitting new 2-month highs. The war in Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate and the market has responded accordingly. The USDA did not make any major changes in the report.

Drought Monitor

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.

 

26 Aug 2024

AG MARKET UPDATE: AUGUST 12 – 26

Corn’s continued weakness following the August USDA report. Pro Farmer completed their crop tour last week and see the US yield being 181.1 bu/ac and a total 14.979-billion-bushel production. With another record crop expected this year, the market is continuing lower as plenty of 2023 corn remains in storage needing to be moved before this year’s harvest gets underway. The end of month heat is not expected to do much damage to the corn crop, but this crop is not done yet and still needs some more rain to get to the finish line. While demand is improving in the commodity space with a weaker USD, the large supply is still driving prices lower for the time being. There is not any major news to keep an eye on coming up except export and weather news.

Via Barchart

Pro Farmer found a massive crop in their tour last week estimating the 2024 US bean crop at 54.9 bu/ac(!!) and 4.74-billion-bushel total production. This soybean yield would easily be a record and would justify the collapse in bean prices seen this year. The current heat will likely stress the crop a bit, making that big a yield unlikely, however we should still expect to see a record crop, like corn. Soybeans need some good news in the form of demand whether that be from exports or the sustainable fuel market to get this thing turned around without production concerns in South America.

Via Barchart

Equity Markets

The equity markets have rallied back to recent highs after a small correction with the Yen carry unwind and some market broadening out of tech. With earnings season coming to an end markets will trade on economic data and any election surprises after Nvidia this week.

Via Barchart

Other News

  • Fed chairman Powell spoke in Jackson Hole last week and set up for the Fed to begin cutting rates next month.
  • The Canadian rail strike started and seemingly ended quickly with the government stepping in and saying that arbitration will decide negotiations.
  • Wheat’s summer trend lower from the $7.59 high looks to continue as it is not getting any help from other commodities to pull it up.

Drought Monitor

  

Via Barchart.com

Contact an Ag Specialist Today

Whether you’re a producer, end-user, commercial operator, RCM AG Services helps protect revenues and control costs through its suite of hedging tools and network of buyers/sellers — Contact Ag Specialist Brady Lawrence today at 312-858-4049 or blawrence@rcmam.com.