LEONARD LUMBER REPORT: The higher trend continued last week after a tariff announcement
Recap:
The higher trend continued last week after a tariff announcement. The announcement cleaned up the tariff-free wood. The next batch has the tariff increase on it. It is hard to project the anxiety of the next push. Unless you were hiding under a rock or a really bad lumber trader, you had already been “good dealed” to death and have a fair amount of inventory. It looks as if industry has wood. Now if we continue to see decent mill outtake, we can surmise that demand has picked up, and our long-term dynamics have changed. There will be a time when outtake cleans up the excesses. It’s early. Today, it is an assumption. Tomorrow it may be reality. We are going into the week with a look at whether the market is better or not. Futures will see a roll or buying from the funds in November. My guess is that they are over 5000 short now with the bulk sitting in November. There was no report last week. The government shutdown is another in a long line of psychological negatives (headwinds) we have lived with this year. This housing market will rally when a “normal” reappears. That could be a long way off.
The market will never change its stripes. Selling a premium in futures is the business way to trade. If it is $200 OSB, $300 SYP or $420 spruce, you should sell the board. Now, if you think you own it at a level that can’t lose, then hang in there. The fact is attaching a hedge every time the spread is wide is how this business works.
Technical:
The technical oscillators are aging. They are running out of upside. With a gap from 597 to 604 in November we have the perfect correction setup. Again, this is not bullish or bearish, but pure natural. If the futures market doesn’t start to correct and fill the gap, the takeaway is a pending breakout up. This type of chart pattern in lumber generally gives off good trend analysis so we’re watching close.
Daily Bulletin:
https://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/current/Section23_Lumber_Options.pdf
Southern Yellow Pine:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/lumber-and-softs/southern-yellow-pine.volume.html
The Commitment of Traders:
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm