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19 Mar 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: March 13 – 19


Corn had a good week overall, despite the struggle of Thursday’s trade, largely supported by another strong week of exports. Improved chances of rain in Argentina and rains in the US adding to early spring soil conditions kept the bulls from running away to the upside. The markets also continue to have ASF in China hanging over them, but the less we hear about that the better as “no news, is good news.” Ethanol production hit a 12-week high in this week’s report while stocks fell for the 5th straight week. With more people driving and good blend margins for producers the Ethanol machine (i.e corn buying) should continue.  As you can see in the chart below we have been trading in the same range since the February USDA report bookended the near term high AND low. The Acreage Intentions report at the end of the month will be very important and likely the next major marketing moving event.

Via Barchart

 


Soybeans struggled this week as much needed rain came in parts of the country as we approach planting season in the US. South America’s harvest has begun to pick up after it struggled the first few weeks. The increased harvest pace has helped replenish the world export pipeline. World demand continues to be strong, and the US will need to have a solid new crop production to be able to meet both the current and post COVID world demand heading into 2022. Looking ahead to the end of the month, both China and South American weather will continue to be the important movers leading up to the acreage report on March 31st. The chart below shows soybeans in a narrow near term technical range. Continued buying from both end users and the funds will be needed to keep the technical outlook from getting dicey, especially for new crop.



Via Barchart


Dow Jones
The Dow had a strong week as vaccines continue to rollout in large amounts across the US. We are now well ahead of the 100 million vaccines in the first 100 days of the Biden administration. All eyes were on the FED earlier this week when they held interest rates at historic lows and indicated that no change in policy is likely until 2023. Combining low cost money and the $1.9 Trillion Covid Relief bill traders had no reason not to buy equities.

Energies
Energies took it on the chin this week as there were loses across the board in both energy stocks and energy commodities. Energies have had an incredible start the year, where a pullback wasn’t all that surprising.  There is a question if OPEC will increase output to take advantage.  Long term, as long as production doesn’t change drastically and vaccines continue to roll out experts are forecasting rising demand for energy across the board.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

12 Mar 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: March 6 – 12


Corn had small gains on the week after continuing to trade in the recent range since leveling off at the start of February. Corn had strong exports and CONAB’s crop were both bullish factors supporting the market on Thursday. Rain expectations were added to later in March for Argentina but also added to northern Brazil in the short run.  These expectations are continuing to put pressure on an already delayed harvest. Throughout the current bull run, Corn has managed to bounce when it tests the low end of its technical range.  This is  nice to see the support kicking in when there is both bearish and bullish news in the market. The March 31st Acreage and Stocks Report will have updates on every category and will set the stage for the trade’s expectations into the US growing season. The USDA will need to update their stocks in this report as exports have been ahead of their predicted pace for the year-to-date.



Via Barchart

Soybeans made small gains on the week; albeit volatile, after falling from their contract highs at the start of the week.  The continued ASF questions in China will hang around the market as bearish news until we get more concrete answers. South America has continued to struggle with its bean harvest and with more rain in the forecast for northern part of Brazil the struggles look to continue. Friday’s early pullback pushed beans below $14.00 on fund selling despite South America continuing to trim their expected yield. Beans are still trading within a wide range but still have a bullish chart even with the small pullback from contract highs this week. Continue to keep an eye on South American weather, exports, and ASF news as those will be the movers going into the March 31st acreage and stocks report.


Via Barchart

 


Dow Jones

The Dow had a strong bounce back week as President Biden and the Democrats passed a $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill and the continued news of states opening fully back up. Covid-19 vaccines continue to rollout and case numbers also continue to trend in the right direction which is positive for the economy and reopening efforts. The Nasdaq has also bounced back some this week after getting killed last week on rising interest rates as investors cycled out of tech.

Cotton

After falling hard last week cotton has been bouncing around making small gains on the week. Cotton, like other commodities, are being bought in greater quantities at higher prices which are signs of inflation starting at the start of the consumer cycle. Cotton demand around the world has slowly been rising as the world re-opens and consumers cant wear the same pair of sweatpants all week long everywhere.

Weekly Prices


Via Barchart.com

05 Mar 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Crop Insurance, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: February 27 – March 5

Corn had noticeable losses this week after volatility in the markets picked back up. A disappointing, but not surprising, export report helped to keep pressure on markets. Thursday was off to a good start until about midday when the selling began to finish, well off the highs for a mixed close. Rain has crept into the northern Argentina forecast which will help a hurting corn crop. The continued wetness of northern Brazil keeps the regions harvest behind with no clear window for them to catch up/make serious progress. The May contract closed below the 20 day moving average at the close of Thursday’s trading. There has been support below these levels the last few times markets tested this level.  How Friday’s trade finishes will be important to maintain the technical uptrend.

The March USDA Report be out on Tuesday the March 9th and will be the next big market mover.  Traders are in need of some bullish news to hold off the bears.  Consider covering a portion of your new crop with some downside protection and or forward sales ahead of the report.

Via Barchart.com

 

Soybeans made small gains on the week as the continued struggles with the Brazilian harvest has continued to be supportive for the past/many months. The problem hanging over the market right now is the confirmation of ASF in China AGAIN (will it ever end?). After all the talk of China’s improved process of feeding pigs = driving soybean exports, if ASF gets out of hand (i.e 2018) it could pull the rug out from under the demand story. Despite this news, soybean oil prices continue to climb supporting beans and slowing the blow from the ASF scare. Exports, like corn, were not great but that was expected as sales remain strong and well ahead of this time last year. The weather issues in South America will continue to support US beans as they struggle to finish harvest and will push back any double crop area planting. Another note about the quality of the South American crop- the Buenos Ares Grains Exchange rated the Argentinian crop 10% good to excellent down from 15% the previous week. South America’s troubles are the US bean prices gains.


Via Barchart.com

 

Dow Jones
The Dow had a tough week along with the other major indexes as the prospects of interest rate pressure threw cold water on stock prices.  The 10 year US Treasury Note closed Thursday over 1.5% for the first time since the pandemic began. This has brought caution to the markets as tech has gotten hammered and the Fed may be losing its grip on its direction for interest rates.

Insurance
February was important for revenue-based insurance averages. At the end of the month the price for corn is $4.5848 and soybeans are $11.8665.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

19 Feb 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

AG MARKET UPDATES: FEBRUARY 13 – 19

It’s been a slow week for Corn gains as China is celebrating the lunar new year. With the lack of Chinese buying the markets turned elsewhere for news. South America’s weather is still pretty consistent with wet conditions in northern Brazil and southern Brazil and Argentina remaining pretty dry. The next few weeks will be very important for Brazil/Argentina as soybean harvest is already behind pace. The Ag Forum has released the USDA expected planted acreage; Corn was pegged at 92 million acres, which was around most estimates, and not much of a surprise to the markets.

 

Friday’s supply and demand report is going to be the most important piece of news this week as it will be a reminder how tight the world and US supply are. The report, South American weather, and China being back from holiday will be where the focus shifts.

 


Via Barchart.com

 

Like corn, Soybeans gained this week, despite a slow news cycle. Harvest delays continue in South America, to put it in perspective, the harvest is just reaching the halfway point of where they typically are at this point. The January crush report had another record month with bean crush coming in at 184.6 million bushels. The US will runout of beans this summer if this crush rate continues, and after 5 record weeks in a row it does not seem to be slowing down. The Ag Forum came out with an estimated 90 million acres of soybeans for this year which was right around estimates as well.

 

It will be important to keep watching exports as China comes back from their holiday and will begin normal activity again. The news to end the week will be the supply and demand report so how China responds next week will give us an idea how accurate we think the report is.


Via Barchart.com

 

It’s been a strong week for Wheat as it bounced up from the lower end of the range it has been trading in. The cold weather throughout much of the country may have sparked the move this week as the possibility of damage to the crop comes in to play. It will be challenging to get a read on the extent of the damage until the spring making it more of a waiting game instead of a knee jerk reaction. Winterkill rallies are usually short-lived so we will see with this one. The USDA is estimating 45 million acres of wheat this year which is up by less than 1 million from last year. Even though we had a rally this week wheat appears to still be range bound as it has been.


Via Barchart.com

 

Dow Jones
The Dow has had an up and down week as market news has been quiet but the focus of the historic cold in parts of the country has caused energies to surge. The winter storm that ripped through the country has caused issues travelling in many areas slowing down the Covid-19 vaccine distribution and slowing down getting shots in arms as well. Cases have been on the decline the last few weeks and it will be important for this trend to continue.

Insurance
This month is important for revenue-based insurance averages so it will be important to keep an eye on the markets even if you do not plan on making any sales. As of the close on 2/18 the price for corn is $4.5304 and soybeans are $11.711.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart.com

12 Feb 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Crop Insurance, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Research, Soybeans, Weekly Prices, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: February 6 – 12

Corn lost on the week following dissapointing numbers in the February USDA WASDE Report. Despite the big losses on Tuesday and Wednesday following the report a modest bounce was seen Thursday to give the bulls a little sigh of relief. As we have seen with previous dips there has been buying after the dips that help support the market. The big surprise in the report was US corn ending stocks number being over 100 million bushels higher than trade expectations at 1.502 billion bushels. They did lower them from the January report of 1.552 BBU but not near as much as expected. The world carryout was was also bearish with the USDA raising world carryout to 286.53 million metric tonnes, a raise of 2.7 mmt, and well above trade estimates. The bullish news was that Chinese imoprt expectations increased by 256 million bushels but the US export total was only increased 50 million bushels. With this bearish news funds also began to offload some of their long positions adding fuel to the fire. You should also not expect any news to come out of China as they head into their Lunar New Year so buying from China will be slow. Parts of Argentina that have gotten needed rain may have received more help than expected on their crops as some predict it helped more than anticipated. The positive day on Thursday to stop the bleeding was important for the bulls but how the week ends will be important.


Via Barchart.com

 

Soybeans were lower this week as the bearish news in the report for corn moved triggered a broad based sell off at the Board of Trade. Beans took it on the chin Wednesday as fund selling led the way. Despite a neutral report on the beans side, when funds decide to take profit they are the market mover. New export offers from Brazil were part of drawback as they were 40 cents below the US market and that collapse brought the US to about even. The USDA report showed that the US cannot export any more than about 250 million bushels the rest of the marketing year before bins are empty. CONAB released supportive bean crop estimates on Thursday coming in just above 133 million metric tonnes. The tightness of world stocks is on every traders mind and likely what has caused the markets to jump around – While 100 million additional bushels is only 1% of the 10 billion bushels produced any and all changes to production are being watched. The volatility of the past few weeks is best displayed on the visual daily ranges in the chart below.


Via Barchart.com

 

Cotton once again saw a big week of gains as demand around the world continues. Exports were strong this week with Vietnam, Turkey and China being the biggest buyers. The National Cotton Council’s planted acreage estimates came out this week with the following:

The NCC sees Upland acreage down 4.9% Y-O-Y, at 11.3mm acres. Pima acreage is seen down 20.7%, to 161,000. Overall, this imputes a 5.2% decline to 11.5mm acres. (CottonGrower.com)

With only 4 trading days next week, On-Call sales basis the March contract, will have to be fixed (bought) by the Mills before Friday, ahead of First Notice Day on Monday, Feb 22. The loss of acres was expected with soybeans and corn being very attractive in price vs cotton currently. If cotton can continue its run up it may be able to gain some acres back but this recent run will need to continue. West Texas continues to be extremely dry and will need some moisture heading into the spring.

Via Barchart.com

 

Dow Jones
The Dow gained this week as supportive news from vaccines and the continued drop in Covid cases around the US. As many investors remain bullish looking at 2021 it is important to note that we still have a long way to get out of the storm that has been the last year.

Wheat
Wheat has been in a sideways trade the last few weeks and looks to continue. There was no big news in the report that caused any knee jerk reaction in the market as it followed beans and corn lower on the week.

Insurance
Remember that this month is important for revenue-based insurance averages so it will be important to keep an eye on the markets even if you do not plan on making any sales. As of the close on 2/11 the price for corn is $4.5141 and soybeans are $11.645.


Via Barchart.com

05 Feb 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates January 30 – February 5


Corn gained on the week as South America has had issues with their first harvest and the continued wet conditions delaying it in north and central Brazil. Huge exports this week to China and other strong ones to accompany it were very welcome to see. A total of 293 million bushels, a weekly record, was the good news the bulls needed. It is easy to get in a lull where you expect these exports at this point with the past few months of demand but whenever they come in above or at the high end of expectations it is what is needed to keep the momentum. Funds continue to be long close to 2 billion bushels, so like beans the daily volatility may stick around. Continued exports and continued delay of Brazil’s harvest will be the bullish news under the market going into the USDA report on Tuesday that could throw some surprises at us – there is one thing we know for sure it is the USDA is full of surprises (both good and bad).


Via Barchart

 


Soybeans rebounded this week as the markets were not as volatile as the previous couple of weeks. South America got some welcome rain in parts of Argentina and looks to remain hot and dry for the near future. The wetness in Brazil delaying their first corn harvest does not have much of an impact on soybeans, but as we know any big news for one of them will still have a ripple effect. Funds continue to be long as they entered the week long 820 MBU. As mentioned last week when funds decide to take profits, we may see price volatility in stretches. Good exports this week continued as we see consistent demand from China. As beans have been range bound the last 2 weeks relative to the past few months there has been end user buying dips below $13.50 to provide some support.


Via Barchart

 


Cotton got a strong bounce on Thursday after trading relatively flat for the week. This week’s exports were strong with cotton going to 18 destinations. Overseas mills demand has stayed consistent and will continue to be the driving force behind cotton. With all the cotton that has been sold it is not hard to imagine that there will be a supply squeeze here in the US that will continue to drive prices higher as well. The supply squeeze will come as demand remains high; however, at some point we will begin to run out of cotton to export if current pace keeps up. Outside political pressure on China and their accused human rights abuses continue to cause them troubles exporting cotton which has helped the US. As great as cotton’s run has been it still is well below where it needs to be to be competitive with grains. For this reason, cotton acres are expected to fall over 500,000 acres to 11.5MA which would be supportive for new crop cotton as we head into the spring, but will we get a rally before then to keep those acres? The demand is there so it may be a last-minute decision for some farmers.


Via Barchart

 


Dow Jones
The Dow gained this week and traded to new contract highs as market volatility has slowed down following the short squeeze drama of the last week. Covid-19 cases in the US have been trending lower for new daily cases along with vaccines continuing to roll are both great news. It is also earnings season so there has been lots of news both supportive and negative for many companies as any positive COVID-19 news seems to be the biggest overall market mover.

Insurance
Remember that this month is important for revenue-based insurance averages so it will be important to keep an eye on the markets even if you do not plan on making any sales. As of the close on 2/4 the price for corn is $4.4937 and soybeans are $11.5525.

February USDA Report
Reminder to keep an eye on the USDA report on Tuesday the 9th. This report historically has not contained as many surprises but with the recent Chinese demand we may see another update of the expected ending stocks and exports. We are expecting Tuesday’s report to be a market mover.

Weekly Prices


Via Barchart.com

29 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Soybeans, USDA Report, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: January 17 – 29

Corn gained on the week as it made up for the fall to end last week. Export numbers continued to be strong and Brazil’s harvest has faced delays. A huge corn sale to China announced Tuesday morning was welcome news as well as record ethanol bookings into China through ADM helped.  This looks to continue into the spring as Brazil is struggling with their pace of shipping as well as the harvest delays. US corn is still very competitive pricing on the world stage which is also supportive. This is important because it keeps exports going as demand continues to ramp up around the world as well as when there is a selloff by the funds it is a buying opportunity for other countries. The volatility of the last week has been important to keep an eye on as we have seen some wide ranges traded within one day. As we have seen some big run ups in a day, we have also seen fund selling to bring it back down. As you can see in the chart below the intraday range over the last week has been larger compared to how we got here. As flooding continues to cause harvest delays in Brazil, mostly in beans, this will be important to keep an eye over the next few weeks heading into corn harvest.

Via Barchart

 

Soybeans lost again this week with most of the losses coming from last Friday’s sell off and have seen a good bounce back from the low of $12.98 Monday morning. The flooding in Brazil has caused delays and other issues with bean harvest. Despite large exports the past week the early rallies on Thursday fell through to losses on the day closing below the 20 day moving average. Funds have been selling on the recent rallies which, like today, may continue to be the trend as funds take profit on this impressive run. The outlook has remained bullish as fundamentally the demand is still there and South America’s struggles may continue hurting their yield. Argentina’s crop condition is below 20% good/excellent and last year it was at 70% this time last year to shed some light on how much their crop is struggling. China will need to continue buying any dip down caused by fund selling but if they stop and funds sell the immediate support of sales would disappear. After this run up a pause and drawback may have been needed as we await South America’s harvest but how the month/week ends will be critically important heading into February.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow lost on the week amongst a lot of volatility (I’m not going to get into the whole GME, AMC, etc drama). Vaccines continue to roll out as states struggle to implement their vaccination strategies while on the federal side the government is trying to get states more so they can ramp up a somewhat dysfunctional rollout. Despite the struggles the good news is we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Many investors are bullish for 2021 as we come out of a year long lockdown while some still think we are due for a correction at some point.

January USDA Report
The RCM Ag team had a roundtable discussion following the January USDA report. Here are the links to view/listen to it on your platform of choice.

 

Weekly Prices

15 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Wheat rcmagserv 0 comment

Harvest Market Updates: Jan 9 – 15

Corn had a huge boost this week as the USDA reported the US yield to be 172 bu/acre. This was a 3.8 bu/acre decrease from the Nov report that nobody was expecting. The average trade estimate heading into the report was 175.3 bu/acre, so this surprise played a large role in why corn was limit up following the report. This number is low when you think about the past several years of yields and the fact the USDA had estimated the crop to be 181.8 bu/acre in the August report. Now we had some weather events that caused damage to large areas of crops and a drier August, but not to the point that would cause a 9.8 bushel decrease. So, the drastic change over the last few months is a head scratcher, but the USDA does usually leave us with more questions than answers. The USDA also lowered both US and World ending stocks showing why corn has been going up over the past few months, less corn in the world than expected. US ending stocks were lowered from 1.702 billion bushels to 1.552 billion and world ending stocks were lowered from 288.96 billion bushels to 283.83 billion. Tightening ending stocks played a major role in the harvest to now rally in corn and will continue to play a role as all eyes will turn to South America and their corn crop. If their crop begins to struggle or comes out smaller than anticipated this will begin to push new crop ’21 prices up as farmers make their decisions on what to grow in 2021.


Via Barchart

 

Soybeans continue to go higher as March beans topped $14 this week. Like corn, the report was bullish for soybeans. The USDA pegged yield at 50.2 bu/acre after dropping them ½ bu/acre from the December report. They also raised exports and use while cutting ending stocks adding to the bullish news. Soybean’s news the last few months has been bullish as South America oversold their last crop and are now importing US beans on top of the picked-up demand from China. The USDA also lowered the production for South America from 183 million metric tons to 180.6 MMT. With the current South America weather problems (dryness) this number could continue to go down which would keep the weather as one of the bullish factors pushing the market higher. With Chinese demand continuing along with the imports into South America until their harvest, we will continue to see demand support the market. As always with this time of year pay attention to South American production numbers/weather as changes in those will also have major impacts on our markets.

Via Barchart

 

Wheat followed corn up after the report this week as there were no major changes to wheat. The news from the report was that the winter wheat seedings report increased for the first time in 8 years. All wheat acres were 31.991 million acres, up 1.576 million from last year. This was also slightly higher than the trade estimate. The Dec stocks number was not much of a surprise as it came in at 1.674 billion bushels. On the supply and demand side, supply was left unchanged while seed usage was raised slightly by 1 million bushels and feed usage raised by 25 million. This lead to a 26 million bushel reduction in the ending stocks , overall friendly for the market. As you can see in the chart below, despite the Nov dip the March chart is still bullish looking back to the contract lows in June.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow has remained pretty flat over the last week as impeachment of President Trump hasn’t been a market mover with president elect Biden set to take office in one week. As vaccine rollouts continue to be slower than hoped for, states begin to ramp up their next phase to non-healthcare workers. Governor Cuomo has now come out against another round of lockdowns but we will see what the Biden administration has in store in the next two weeks.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart

08 Jan 2021
Agriculture, Corn, Cotton, Dow Jones, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, U.S. Dollar, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Harvest Market Updates: January 2-8


Corn continues its run up and briefly traded over $5 this week. Corn and beans charts look very similar as you can see below as corn has followed beans. What I mean is bean news moves the markets more so than corn right now as exports for both to China (and others) have been steady for a while now with some surprises from time to time. China announced this week their intention to plant more corn acres this year and expand ethanol production, but with Chinese corn still at around $10 it will be hard for them to make any major waves quickly. With South American weather continuing to be dry in the big picture this should keep SA from producing a huge crop. Old crop corn prices are strong but new crop Dec ’21 continues to lag and will ultimately depend on the South American crop and planted acres before we see any big movement. Keep an eye on the Jan USDA report that comes out the 12th for any change in news.

Via Barchart


Soybeans have had a great last couple months as they continue to run up and get over $13.50. As South America continues their dry outlook into the summer in the southern hemisphere. Argentina has a really good chance for wide sweeping rain next week but returns to dry after that. As South American weather still looks to be problem it will continue to be supportive of beans. With good exports again this week and weather issues in SA the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Brazil has now started importing soybeans from the US as well as China and will continue to do so until harvest. With this runup we still see down days and even sizeable downward movements, this usually will stem from profit taking until we see fundamentals change. With soybean prices where they are this will lead to farmers switching over some acres which will be an important talking point heading into the spring. We continue the view of selling all of your ’20 crop and not paying for storage to take advantage of these prices. If you do not want to miss out on any further movement higher we suggest at looking at re-ownership on board if it fits your risk level.

Via Barchart


Cotton has seen a nice bump higher as we have gotten into the 80s for several trading days. Cotton may benefit the most from the weaker dollar more so than grains. US cotton is still cheaper than cotton in China (even with cost of delivery) so this should keep the US product competitive and sought after. With the outlook of 2021 moving out of the pandemic with vaccines, demand will rise for all textiles but cotton mills will ramp back up in India and China the most. March cotton chart is below.

Via Barchart


Dow Jones
The Dow has gained over the last few weeks as investors have gotten a better look as to what the next 4 year will look like as both Georgia senate seats went to the Democrats. Many experts think that moderate Dems will be the most important over the next 4 years as they will not vote completely on party lines and prevent any drastic changes. However, it will be important to keep an eye on the markets as we get closer to the Biden administration taking over as investors look to avoid new taxes.

US Dollar
The dollar has continued to stay low and may head lower. This is supportive of US commodities in the world market and would help exports in the big picture.

Via Barchart.com

21 Dec 2020
Agriculture, Corn, Market Commentary, Market Updates, Soybeans, Weekly Prices rcmagserv 0 comment

Ag Market Updates: December 12 – 19

Corn followed beans up this week as exports continue to roll. China continues to be a buyer of US corn and continued La Nina weather in South America are helping pull prices up. Corn will continue to go as soybeans go (as usual) so any positive soybean news is also supportive for corn prices. There continues to be upside in the market as fundamentals continue to bullish with the downside being a change in weather for South America. Corn has been slow and steady and will continue to be with exports being the main news.

Via Barchart

 

Soybeans finally broke through the $12 mark this week as world demand continues to drive prices. China potentially switching bean cargoes from Brazil to the US on shipping delay concerns (Argentina port workers strike) were supportive news as well as continued South American weather concerns. Southern Brazil and Argentina look to be dry into the end of the year while the rest of Brazil will get enough rain to keep it steady. As exports continue to be strong and on the high end of expectations it does not look like bean demand is going anywhere. Bean sales have reached 90% of the annual USDA forecast with 8 ½ months left in the reporting year. Until South American harvest gets rolling US beans look to continue to benefit from the export demand. With the magic $12 threshold being past we could see this run continue.

Via Barchart

 

Dow Jones
The Dow gained on the week as vaccines rolled out across the country while the current COVID wave is seeing new records every day. Congress continues to negotiate a stimulus bill as the year comes to a close. Many investors see 2021 as ripe for growth and still think there is time to get in to take advantage of a post Covid-19 US even if you missed the run up to 30,000 from the March lows.

Crude Oil
Crude Oil has rallied back to pre-lockdown numbers this week as it got back to $49/barrel. As fuel consumption has slowly been growing a second round of lockdowns could lead to over supply problems if drilling is also not cut back.

US Dollar
The US dollar has continued to fall as it is again seeing value not seen sine early 2018. A low USD helps commodity prices and cotton more so than others as we have seen cotton’s recent run up.

Weekly Prices

Via Barchart

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